OT: Bears & NFL Talk 97

[TLEH]

Chicago has an average (at best) running game a decent (but not great) TE a center who belongs in the spring league and 1 top 3 receiver.
Receivers in recent weeks have dropped TD Passes. Short armed thrown balls and slowed down on a route.

Fields stays. Trade the pick build an offense around this very good QB.

He played well today.

YPG (23/32)
- TD% (11/32)
- INT % (26/32)
- YPA (21/32)
- QB Rating (21/32)
- QBR (22/32)
- COMP % (27/32)
- Sack % (31/32)
- EPA/Play (22/32)
- Success rate (27/32)

These are his rankings among NFL QBs this year. Also the Bears have the 7th best drop rate among teams.

Fields isn’t “very good”.. he can be serviceable over an 18 game season.

 

[Romang67]

He played well today.

YPG (23/32)
- TD% (11/32)
- INT % (26/32)
- YPA (21/32)
- QB Rating (21/32)
- QBR (22/32)
- COMP % (27/32)
- Sack % (31/32)
- EPA/Play (22/32)
- Success rate (27/32)

These are his rankings among NFL QBs this year. Also the Bears have the 7th best drop rate among teams.

Fields isn’t “very good”.. he can be serviceable over an 18 game season.

I suspect that, over the next few months, Poles and whoever else is involved will sit down and review the entire season. Remove themselves from the recency bias and make a decision afterward.

 

[ClydeLee]

If you keep Flus I think you should keep Fields.

Ideally best long term fit seems start new with HC and Qb

 

[Pez68]

Whatever the Bears decide, I hope it's the right decision for once.

I don't want this coaching staff back though. The OC sucks, and I think Eberflus is too conservative for the NFL today. The Bears are a terrible second half team.

They should have made the playoffs, and that's entirely on the coaching staff.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Chicago has an average (at best) running game a decent (but not great) TE a center who belongs in the spring league and 1 top 3 receiver.
Receivers in recent weeks have dropped TD Passes. Short armed thrown balls and slowed down on a route.

Fields stays. Trade the pick build an offense around this very good QB.

Exactly. With DJ on one side and MHJ on the other - Fields would have to elite playmakers that could elevate Fields and the offense to a very competitive level. Playmakers are a premium - MHJ looks to be one of those rare WRs you has all the tools AND uses them - he's basically DJ only bigger with a larger catch radius. He's a difference maker and when you have a chance to draft a difference maker - you do it.

 

[HeisenBaez]

You actively root for the bears to be in worse situations, it’s borderline delusional

If that is what you believe I was doing to help you sleep, then so be it.

I know the Bears history of QB is not good, I simply wanted the Bears to be removed from having to make that decision. Obviously the Bears are now in that postion to make the call. I'm not confident they will make the right decision. So....TRADE THE DAMN PICK.

 

[Sarava]

First of all, Happy New Year, fellow Bear fans!

The Packers are in with a win over the Bears next Sunday. The Bears probably win either way. There's no greater high going in to the off-season than getting the Packer monkey off their back and knocking them out of the playoffs. That would probably give the Bears the #12 or 13 pick. On the other hand, if they lose they probably pick 9th or 10th - in addition to the #1 pick.

The fans are putting the heat on Poles with the 'We want Fields' chants, and Poles was on the field to hear that. Romang has a point - the decision can be made in 2 or 3 months, to go ahead and remove the recency bias. Obviously Poles is going to need to consider if moving Fields does damage to the locker room culture that they have built? But his job and maybe even his career is on the line in making the right call here.

The Carolina trade was made on March 10th last year, and that trade was considered early. So we have tons of time.

IMO, the riskiest move he can make is trading Fields and drafting Caleb Williams. If Caleb comes here and busts out - not even as good as Fields is, the rebuild is dead in it's tracks. It would be a White Sox style crash and burn. However, if he comes in and restores his generational tag that he has carried the last 3 years, though its faded a bit the last 2 or 3 months, - then the sky is the limit. Multiple Super Bowls dare I say?

The Holiday Bowl brings more questions about Caleb. 2 of his teammates seemingly made pokes at him after the game, including his backup. Also his backup put up the best stats of the season up for a USC QB - and he did it against a top 25 defense, who Caleb traditionally struggles against.

If he trades Fields...Fields stock may have risen to be a first rounder after yesterday. Especially if it's the Falcons calling, who currently sit 1 spot ahead of the Bears at #9.

I think 2024 will be a special year for the Chicago Bears. I have confidence that Poles will kill it at the draft, whichever way he goes. The team should take off and be a playoff contender. And they probably will announce that a deal is reached to build a stadium at Arlington Park at some point in the year.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I'm sold on Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright at tackle, and Tevon Jenkins at guard. But they need an upgrade at center and the other guard. If those two positions can be significantly upgraded the Bears will be a very good running team. If the Bears can get an elite WR to play opposite DJ, their passing game can be very good.

I don't know how much cap space Poles has to play with in free agency but hopefully enough to sign a top notch center or guard, leaving WR and the other o-line spot to be addressed in the draft.

 

[Romang67]

I'm sold on Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright at tackle, and Tevon Jenkins at guard. But they need an upgrade at center and the other guard. If those two positions can be significantly upgraded the Bears will be a very good running team. If the Bears can get an elite WR to play opposite DJ, their passing game can be very good.

I don't know how much cap space Poles has to play with in free agency but hopefully enough to sign a top notch center or guard, leaving WR and the other o-line spot to be addressed in the draft.

After cutting Whitehair and EJax, assuming they draft players at #1 and #10, Poles has around $60M in cap space.

If that is what you believe I was doing to help you sleep, then so be it.

I know the Bears history of QB is not good, I simply wanted the Bears to be removed from having to make that decision. Obviously the Bears are now in that postion to make the call. I'm not confident they will make the right decision. So....TRADE THE DAMN PICK.

Trading the pick is also making a decision on QB.

 

[bwanajamba]

Wanting to trade the pick because you're afraid to make the wrong choice is simply not a serious approach to this dilemma. Trade the pick if you're certain about Fields. Draft a QB otherwise.

My preference is drafting Williams. He could be an absolute superstar that significantly raises the ceiling of this team for years to come. Fields could definitely be a guy who in the right circumstances makes the plays you need to get to the top with a stacked team around him, but any honest assessment would acknowledge the best thing he has going for him in this debate is risk aversion, which is being driven by overstatements of Williams's flaws because the Chicago market happens to watch a lot of Notre Dame games. Watch some tape analysis- he reads defenses at a level Fields has simply shown himself incapable of doing, and has all of Fields' arm talent and a good deal of his elusiveness, if not his open field running ability.

Since his return from injury Fields has had two good games, two ok games, and two bad ones. I don't get why people are so ready to embrace that mediocrity for another season when we are faced with a literal once in a lifetime chance to add a high caliber talent at the most important position in the sport to a team that *should* be in a playoff spot and has a great foundation to support his transition to the league.

 

[HeisenBaez]

Since his return from injury Fields has had two good games, two ok games, and two bad ones. I don't get why people are so ready to embrace that mediocrity for another season when we are faced with a literal once in a lifetime chance to add a high caliber talent at the most important position in the sport to a team that *should* be in a playoff spot and has a great foundation to support his transition to the league.

A: Justin Fields, I admit, is a boom or bust pick. I'm rather to continue to gamble on him as I believe his upset is still significantly higher than Caleb Williams. I know some Bears fans don't want to practice patience and I also know people will throw in the fact that he has had three years but that is three years with Nagy, Lazor and Getsy call the plays. Some people simply have new shiny toy syndrome.

B: The Bears are more than a QB away from contending. So the #1 pick has more value than taking a good but not great QB prospect. I don't care what scouts say, there will be another Caleb Williams/CJ Stroud to come along. To me Harrison, Jr and the additional picks you get from trading the pick infinitely more valuable than one player, even if it's a QB.

Ask the players who they want and they'll tell you they want Justin Fields. I know some fans don't think that should be a consideration but it will be. Players have to play with the QB, and the coach has to coach the QB. Not the front office, not the fans, but the players/coach. They should have a say in who is the QB.

IMO, Caleb Williams won't be a Bear.

 

[ClydeLee]

I'm sold on Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright at tackle, and Tevon Jenkins at guard. But they need an upgrade at center and the other guard. If those two positions can be significantly upgraded the Bears will be a very good running team. If the Bears can get an elite WR to play opposite DJ, their passing game can be very good.

I don't know how much cap space Poles has to play with in free agency but hopefully enough to sign a top notch center or guard, leaving WR and the other o-line spot to be addressed in the draft.

Guard would be odd to upgrade. Unless you're trading Jenkins. Evans is pretty average but still on a solid deal 2 more years

But center, is so so crucial to improve.

A: Justin Fields, I admit, is a boom or bust pick. I'm rather to continue to gamble on him as I believe his upset is still significantly higher than Caleb Williams. I know some Bears fans don't want to practice patience and I also know people will throw in the fact that he has had three years but that is three years with Nagy, Lazor and Getsy call the plays. Some people simply have new shiny toy syndrome.

B: The Bears are more than a QB away from contending. So the #1 pick has more value than taking a good but not great QB prospect. I don't care what scouts say, there will be another Caleb Williams/CJ Stroud to come along. To me Harrison, Jr and the additional picks you get from trading the pick infinitely more valuable than one player, even if it's a QB.

Ask the players who they want and they'll tell you they want Justin Fields. I know some fans don't think that should be a consideration but it will be. Players have to play with the QB, and the coach has to coach the QB. Not the front office, not the fans, but the players/coach. They should have a say in who is the QB.

IMO, Caleb Williams won't be a Bear.

If you're changing the coach, what the players want matters nothing. It's a new direction and new effort entirely in that direction

 

[TLEH]

Obviously MHJ is an elite prospect but feel
people have gone overboard with him. I think Nabers is closer to him than Maye is to Caleb. I think that says more about how I feel about Nabers than anything.

 

[Romang67]

Free agency will also be heavily affected by what they decide to do on the QB position. If you move on from Fields, the $60M after cuts stays relatively true for the time being. Fields's 5th year option will be in the $24M range, and any extension, given where the QB market is at, will probably be pushing $40M+.

I also forgot to include JJ on a tag or an extension, which probably cuts around $15-20M from the cap.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Guard would be odd to upgrade. Unless you're trading Jenkins. Evans is pretty average but still on a solid deal 2 more years

I think you mean Nate Davis who is playing right guard. He has been average at best and would like to see an upgrade. The center position is the main priority for upgrade but guard also needs to be upgraded. I like Tevon except for he seems somewhat injury prone. I would switch Tevon back to right guard to tag team with Darnell, keep Davis as the 3rd guard/backup and get a new center and a new left guard.

 

[Romang67]

I think you mean Nate Davis who is playing right guard. He has been average at best and would like to see an upgrade. The center position is the main priority for upgrade but guard also needs to be upgraded. I like Tevon except for he seems somewhat injury prone. I would switch Tevon back to right guard to tag team with Darnell, keep Davis as the 3rd guard/backup and get a new center and a new left guard.

I'd stick with Davis and see what he does without his mother dying and then getting injured. Spending some $20M on the interior line means they will only have some $20M to spend on the D-line, a WR, and on a new safety to replace Jackson.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Obviously MHJ is an elite prospect but feel
people have gone overboard with him. I think Nabers is closer to him than Maye is to Caleb. I think that says more about how I feel about Nabers than anything.

Nabors is a very good "can't miss" WR - but he's 6'0" tall. MHJ is 6'4" with a huge wing span that can go get the ball above defenders. That's a huge difference. Would you use the #1 pick to draft Justin Jefferson - cuz that's essentially what MHJ will be in the NFL.

 

[TLEH]

Nabors is a very good "can't miss" WR - but he's 6'0" tall. MHJ is 6'4" with a huge wing span that can go get the ball above defenders. That's a huge difference. Would you use the #1 pick to draft Justin Jefferson - cuz that's essentially what MHJ will be in the NFL.

He hasn’t played a snap, to borrow everyone else’s words. He’s going to be a great player. I am fully aware of his profile. I just think the best WR in the NFL is JJ and the 2nd best is Hill. There are a lot of ways to get open. MHJ isn’t a lock HOFer because there are no lock HOFers.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I'd stick with Davis and see what he does without his mother dying and then getting injured. Spending some $20M on the interior line means they will only have some $20M to spend on the D-line, a WR, and on a new safety to replace Jackson.

In order of priority for upgrade:

1. WR
2. Center
3. Guard (or Davis plays a lot better)
4. Safety
5. Edge rusher

WR and Center should be addressed with the (2) 1st round picks - maybe be trading down with the Bears pick (9-12) or used on a center if there is one worthy of a 1st round pick.

He hasn’t played a snap, to borrow everyone else’s words. He’s going to be a great player. I am fully aware of his profile. I just think the best WR in the NFL is JJ and the 2nd best is Hill. There are a lot of ways to get open.

Neither has Caleb Williams or anyone else in the draft.

 

[TLEH]

In order of priority for upgrade:

1. WR
2. Center
3. Guard (or Davis plays a lot better)
4. Safety
5. Edge rusher

WR and Center should be addressed with the (2) 1st round picks - maybe be trading down with the Bears pick (9-12) or used on a center if there is one worthy of a 1st round pick.


Neither has Caleb Williams or anyone else in the draft.

Yeah.. I know, but people talk about MHJ like it doesn’t matter what happens he’s HOF instantly.

 

[TLEH]

What I seriously would try and do is trade Fields and both firsts to the Chargers for Herbert lol. Hopefully their new HC and GM want to reset.

They probably don’t want 1.01 and fields but whatever. They don’t do it but a man can dream

 

[Romang67]

Nabors is a very good "can't miss" WR - but he's 6'0" tall. MHJ is 6'4" with a huge wing span that can go get the ball above defenders. That's a huge difference. Would you use the #1 pick to draft Justin Jefferson - cuz that's essentially what MHJ will be in the NFL.

I mean, Justin Jefferson is doing that at 6'1. I also don't really believe that MHJ is as tall as what he's listed at. He's noticeably slightly shorter than Bo Nix in the Heisman trophy pictures.

In order of priority for upgrade:

1. WR
2. Center
3. Guard (or Davis plays a lot better)
4. Safety
5. Edge rusher

WR and Center should be addressed with the (2) 1st round picks - maybe be trading down with the Bears pick (9-12) or used on a center if there is one worthy of a 1st round pick.

I'll flip a table if they go into 2024 with a rookie center. Last year's top rated center prospect just had a significantly worse season than Lucas Patrick, and I don't think Van Pran has been better in college. Pick one late day 2 or early day 3, or pick Van Pran with a second round pick from a trade if he's there, but don't rely on a rookie center to be ready for the NFL right away.

WR should be fixed in the draft. Spend the 2nd 1st rounder on Nabers or Odunze, who are both fantastic prospects just overshadowed by a borderline mythical MHJ. There is a lot of talent on edge in FA this year, unexpectedly. And safety should be relatively easy to grab in FA, without spending too much.

 

[Illinihockey]

Bears can draft between 8 and 13 next week

 

[TLEH]

Bears can draft between 8 and 13 next week

I’d rather beat the Packers and knock them out than care about the difference between 8 and 13, to be quite honest.

 

[Illinihockey]

Also I think a lot of people on Twitter are overestimating what the bears can get for the 1 and still get MHJ