OT: Bears & NFL Talk 103

[Romang67]

I think the Seahawks are going to murder the Bears through the air. I don't have particularly high hopes that an O-line consisting of Borom-Curhan-Shelton-Pryor-OnlyActualStarterQualityOLineman will do well either in pass pro or run blocking.

I'll be there tonight with a friend. We'll be in section 152, like center of one of the endzones, 9 rows up. If anyone is going, DM me, and maybe we meet up and have a beer.

Have fun!

 

[ClydeLee]

Idk if it's indicative of his ability, if his leg is healed or not, but that one start amegeadije, did not look capable of being a tackle.

Maybe next year he starts out as one of the new guards with a pick as the other guard.

 

[Romang67]

Idk if it's indicative of his ability, if his leg is healed or not, but that one start amegeadije, did not look capable of being a tackle.

Maybe next year he starts out as one of the new guards with a pick as the other guard.

I agree, but man it's a tough task to get a heads up that you're starting like 36 hours before you're playing against arguably the best team in the league at pressing the QB and stopping the run, in their barn.

He was awful, no doubt, but we've seen Borom be a useless lump of coal against much worse competition. Shouldn't we want to see what he looks like against normal competition? Seattle at home feels like a pretty reasonable test.

 

[GIADF]

Think best case scenario the Bears can draft 6 or 7 and 10th is the worst they can draft no matter what.

If I have that right then I almost think a good game for CW and a W might be best for his development at this point.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

4th round picks aren't early round draft picks. Any draft pick after the first 100ish picks is a complete shot in the dark.

Odds of becoming a quality player in the NFL - by draft round

Odds of becoming a quality player in the NFL - by draft round

247sports.com

You can be a GM for 7 straight years, miss every single one of your 4th round draft picks, and you're statistically at that point slightly below average.

His early round drafting has been fine. He has drafted in the first round thrice, all three look like hits. He has drafted in the 2nd round four times, one looks like a miss in terms of performance (Brisker's concussion issues wasn't really a thing at draft time).

I expect 4th round picks to get on field. Scott isn’t for whatever reason

Amigadje in the 3rd is the much bigger concern.

Top 10 picks are easy

Stevenson the second looks to be a bad pick. Total head case after a nice start.

Dexter looks decent but not a difference maker

Pickens hasn’t produced

Brisker and Gordon good picks.

Wright is decent but not great

And of course Velus Jones

You have to hit on some 3rd and 4th rounders. Roschon is just a guy and the only 3/4 rounder making any real impact is a punter.

Regardless, Amigadje not getting on the field is a big deal - especially with how thin they are at OL and how much of an insane stretch that pick was

Think best case scenario the Bears can draft 6 or 7 and 10th is the worst they can draft no matter what.

If I have that right then I almost think a good game for CW and a W might be best for his development at this point.

I want to see Caleb do three things - have an impact and score in the first quarter, have a nice sustained scoring drive on their first possession and to hit a chunk play downfield.

 

[ClydeLee]

Think best case scenario the Bears can draft 6 or 7 and 10th is the worst they can draft no matter what.

If I have that right then I almost think a good game for CW and a W might be best for his development at this point.

But is Poles fired if they lose out verses if they win one or two of these last games?

Just thinking on what I want long term. Because last year many were mad the Bears didn't fire Flus mid season and I thought that was fine, but the Sweat trade D-improvement definitely saved his job. I think it is best there is no positive end to the year Poles can hold up to.

 

[Romang67]

"9. Chicago Bears — Kelvin Banks Jr., OT/OG, Texas
Banks is explosive, plays balanced and can have impact snaps in the run and pass games. He’d be best at guard as a pro, which would be a great fit for the Bears who desperately need a boost on the inside and at right guard. The Bears targeting positional versatility doesn’t hurt at all, though". 2025 NFL mock draft 3.0: Giants go QB at 1, and which CFP standouts will be 1st-rounders?

From what I've seen, Banks looks really good. Strong anchor, good feet. Don't know if he drops to #9.

I expect 4th round picks to get on field. Scott isn’t for whatever reason

Amigadje in the 3rd is the much bigger concern.

Top 10 picks are easy

Stevenson the second looks to be a bad pick. Total head case after a nice start.

Dexter looks decent but not a difference maker

Pickens hasn’t produced

Brisker and Gordon good picks.

Wright is decent but not great

And of course Velus Jones

You have to hit on some 3rd and 4th rounders. Roschon is just a guy and the only 3/4 rounder making any real impact is a punter.

Regardless, Amigadje not getting on the field is a big deal - especially with how thin they are at OL and how much of an insane stretch that pick was

Don't know if Amegadjie was a stretch according to any rankings I saw. Brugler had him as a 3rd rounder, and that's around where he seemed to be ranked.

Everyone thinks their GM should hit on 3rd rounders. Everyone thinks 4th rounders should get on the field. Fact is that they just aren't picks that hit very often. From his own draft class, Scott doesn't stick out as unusually low value added, fewer games where he has dressed, or anything like that. If a 4th round pick hits at all, that's a win. Roschon, despite having battled through concussion issues, is in the 80% percentile of value added from picks in both rounds 3 and 4 from that season. Per pro football reference.

Again, this is not just you. Everyone expects their first round OT to become a pro bowler. Everyone expects their 3rd round picks to become solid starters for a few years. Everyone expects a few of their late picks, usually the ones with favorable pre-draft grades from YouTubers, to beat the odds and become players. And they are wrong to have those beliefs.

 

[Romang67]

But is Poles fired if they lose out verses if they win one or two of these last games?

Just thinking on what I want long term. Because last year many were mad the Bears didn't fire Flus mid season and I thought that was fine, but the Sweat trade D-improvement definitely saved his job. I think it is best there is no positive end to the year Poles can hold up to.

I think Poles's staying depends on what the coach they want to hire wants, much more than what happens in the last two games.

So feel free to hope for a victory to break the streak!

 

[Backyard Hockey]

But is Poles fired if they lose out verses if they win one or two of these last games?

Just thinking on what I want long term. Because last year many were mad the Bears didn't fire Flus mid season and I thought that was fine, but the Sweat trade D-improvement definitely saved his job. I think it is best there is no positive end to the year Poles can hold up to.

There is no universe where ANY GM of any team has a 14 game losing streak and an 11 game losing streak (and counting) in his first 50 games as the GM. He has to go.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

From what I've seen, Banks looks really good. Strong anchor, good feet. Don't know if he drops to #9.

Don't know if Amegadjie was a stretch according to any rankings I saw. Brugler had him as a 3rd rounder, and that's around where he seemed to be ranked.

Everyone thinks their GM should hit on 3rd rounders. Everyone thinks 4th rounders should get on the field. Fact is that they just aren't picks that hit very often. From his own draft class, Scott doesn't stick out as unusually low value added, fewer games where he has dressed, or anything like that. If a 4th round pick hits at all, that's a win. Roschon, despite having battled through concussion issues, is in the 80% percentile of value added from picks in both rounds 3 and 4 from that season. Per pro football reference.

Again, this is not just you. Everyone expects their first round OT to become a pro bowler. Everyone expects their 3rd round picks to become solid starters for a few years. Everyone expects a few of their late picks, usually the ones with favorable pre-draft grades from YouTubers, to beat the odds and become players. And they are wrong to have those beliefs.

I expect GMs to make picks that hit. That list is short. And then you couple that with some of the trades he’s made.

As for third rounders, there are quite a few making significant impacts for their teams Why is out of bounds to expect the Bears GM to hit on at least one of his 3rd or 4tb rounders?

 

[GIADF]

But is Poles fired if they lose out verses if they win one or two of these last games?

Just thinking on what I want long term. Because last year many were mad the Bears didn't fire Flus mid season and I thought that was fine, but the Sweat trade D-improvement definitely saved his job. I think it is best there is no positive end to the year Poles can hold up to.

Honestly, I have no clue. I'd like to think that decision has already been made but they're waiting for the season to end to actually fire him.

 

[Romang67]

I expect GMs to make picks that hit. That list is short. And then you couple that with some of the trades he’s made.

As for third rounders, there are quite a few making significant impacts for their teams Why is out of bounds to expect the Bears GM to hit on at least one of his 3rd or 4tb rounders?

Sure, there are quite a few of them. Around 20 over the past 3 drafts. Out of 100+ 3rd round picks.

Roschon Johnson is a hit in the 4th round. Scott isn't. Roschon is the exception, not Scott.

You can expect whatever you want out of those rounds. I'm saying that you are incorrect in how often those picks hit, and you're setting yourself up for disappointment by expecting anything out of those picks, other than a part time player every so often.

I'd argue that the only out-and-out BAD pick in the 3rd round was Pickens. He was the 1st pick in the 3rd round, and he was a complete flop. Velus was a shot in the dark exclusively for athleticism. Turned out he couldn't catch a football. Amegadjie was drafted as a project, and his injury lingered past training camp.

 

[Romang67]

I don't think Poles's drafting has been inspired. Just bang average. His trading has largely been mediocre to bad. His free agent signings have been catastrophic.

 

[Romang67]

Timely healthy scratch. Pickens scratched in favor of Cowart, Chris Williams, and Jonathan Ford. Dexter returns to the field.

 

[GIADF]

Think the Bears win tonight. Seattle’s defense is really mediocre at everything. A short week with a holiday no less. I wonder when they even travelled to Chicago for that matter.

Bears win 24-13.

 

[Pez68]

This pregame is absolutely awful.

 

[GIADF]

This pregame is absolutely awful.

I’m so sick of all the betting segments and ads.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Sure, there are quite a few of them. Around 20 over the past 3 drafts. Out of 100+ 3rd round picks.

Roschon Johnson is a hit in the 4th round. Scott isn't. Roschon is the exception, not Scott.

You can expect whatever you want out of those rounds. I'm saying that you are incorrect in how often those picks hit, and you're setting yourself up for disappointment by expecting anything out of those picks, other than a part time player every so often.

I'd argue that the only out-and-out BAD pick in the 3rd round was Pickens. He was the 1st pick in the 3rd round, and he was a complete flop. Velus was a shot in the dark exclusively for athleticism. Turned out he couldn't catch a football. Amegadjie was drafted as a project, and his injury lingered past training camp.

Based on what we’ve seen, Amigadje is a terrible pick. Velus Jones was one of the worst picks of recent memory.

And Roschon is just a guy. If the Bears upgrade at RB with a between the tackles complement to Swift year and Roschon isn’t on the roster, no one will really miss him. He’s just a guy.

 

[Romang67]

Based on what we’ve seen, Amigadje is a terrible pick. Velus Jones was one of the worst picks of recent memory.

And Roschon is just a guy. If the Bears upgrade at RB with a between the tackles complement to Swift year and Roschon isn’t on the roster, no one will really miss him. He’s just a guy.

Again, you don't understand where the bar is for a successful pick in the middle rounds. Yes, Roschon is not a great running back. That non-great running back has provided higher added value to the Bears than over 80% of other players drafted in the 3rd or 4th round from his draft year have.

Simply out: your expectations for mid round draft picks are wildly distorted and are setting you up for disappointment. Which is, I suppose, fine.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

I want to see Caleb score a TB on their opening drive. I also want to see him hit a big play downfield. I want to see Kmet involved. I want to see Sweat make an impact. I want to see DJ give one tenth of one shit. I want to see nothing of Jonathon Owens

Again, you don't understand where the bar is for a successful pick in the middle rounds. Yes, Roschon is not a great running back. That non-great running back has provided higher added value to the Bears than over 80% of other players drafted in the 3rd or 4th round from his draft year have.

Simply out: your expectations for mid round draft picks are wildly distorted and are setting you up for disappointment. Which is, I suppose, fine.

There are many big hits in the 3rd and 4th round. I don’t expect Poles to find a Jason Kelce or Navorro Bomman. But expect him to find something more than a RB who gets 2 carries a game and a punter in 3 drafts. Especially for a team with this many holes.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Al Michaels ‘fog rolling in is nothing new’. Umm Al, fog at SF isn’t a regular thing. The fog bowl was like 35 years ago

 

[Romang67]

Don't expect the missed tackles to last. The Bears have been top 32 in the league at successful tackle rate since the Hail Mary game.

 

[GIADF]

If we do manage to get Ben Johnson who in the world is going to be his DC?

This defense stinks.

 

[Romang67]

Nothing like playing the 2024 Bears to resurrect your dead run game.

 

[Romang67]

If we do manage to get Ben Johnson who in the world is going to be his DC?

This defense stinks.

Robert Saleh is a name I see popping up. Don't know if they have a previous relationship or if it's just dreaming up dream teams.