Blue Jays Discussion: Back in Toronto AND things are happening (trade deadline @ 4pm ET/1pm PT today)

[kb]

Whatever, champ. It's the truth. My quick link to this website is actually from a point in 2019, even though I've been around longer than that (about the first year of the Leafs rebuild).

And it's not him specifically, but he's aware of it and told me he's watching. And I've already been vindicated, and the games continue to support everything I said, plus Nemesis didn't actually address my points, so I don't need to mount a "defense". The fact is, I just don't care that much.
And I'm not too keen on addressing someone who starts an angry rant with a bunch of false and vastly hyped up accusations anyway. It's actually kind of sad he went through all that trouble over what is essentially a minor observation. I didn't exactly create a power point presentation or anything. The truth of the matter here is everything that has happened here these last few days is the result of everyone's favourite player receiving a bit of criticism and his fans getting upset. I even tried to drop it, but you guys kept piling on. Heck, I've been part of numerous communities for 20 + years without ever being modded once. Here? I get my first ever by criticizing Vlad. Now THAT is sad.

Anyway, as far as I'm concerned at this point, you guys are resorting to lies and distorted observations to attack me just because you don't like me. Whatever, I've been right way, WAY too many times in the past to care (I mean, you guys were all going on about how Vlad would show up on day 1 hitting everything even though it was blatantly obvious he would start off slow), and I've already proven myself here. And these arguments are sapping my enjoyment of watching the games. Maybe one day I'll find a baseball forum with mature people inhabiting it.

But I'll continue to be around. Oh, yes. Always watching...because you guys are very quick to post news updates.

Attempting to portray people's rejection of this ridiculous 'tough guy' act as being victimized, all while appealing to a non-existent authority elsewhere isn't a good look. And proceeding to double and triple down by resorting to blatant lies and more attacks to justify that false position when it's out in public here in writing for all to see is......something.

 

[Morgs]

What would Morenos ETA be for MLB?

If he comes off his injury hitting the same idk how he doesn't play this year. Next year injury/TDL is probably a conservative guess

 

[SDig14]

I think we were due to see Moreno promoted to AAA this year had it not been for the injury. I still them wanting him to play some in AAA before playing in Toronto, but they certainly didn't worry about letting Kirk skip both AA and AAA for a look, so who knows.

 

[dredeye]

Just use the ignore button lots. You can’t bring up anything negative blue Jays or they jump on you and even ban you for the dumbest reasons. Just ignore. I too come here to check in on rumours but if you don’t agree with the consensus they take away all your privileges.

Your privileges have been so stripped as evidenced by your posting here LOL

 

[ryno23]

I'd much rather have Biggio than Happ, and Contreras isn't needed. Selling low on Gurriel, and sacrificing a ton of control. This is too shortsighted of a deal for the Jays to make.

I also subscribe to your club control to a certain degree but at some point, you need to pull the trigger on difference makers vs controlling players. If your goal is a World Series you need to sacrifice. If your goal is to contend and be on the fringes of a Wild Card each year then you keep the club-controlled players.

 

[dredeye]

Whatever, champ. It's the truth. My quick link to this website is actually from a point in 2019, even though I've been around longer than that (about the first year of the Leafs rebuild).

And it's not him specifically, but he's aware of it and told me he's watching. And I've already been vindicated, and the games continue to support everything I said, plus Nemesis didn't actually address my points, so I don't need to mount a "defense". The fact is, I just don't care that much.
And I'm not too keen on addressing someone who starts an angry rant with a bunch of false and vastly hyped up accusations anyway. It's actually kind of sad he went through all that trouble over what is essentially a minor observation. I didn't exactly create a power point presentation or anything. The truth of the matter here is everything that has happened here these last few days is the result of everyone's favourite player receiving a bit of criticism and his fans getting upset. I even tried to drop it, but you guys kept piling on. Heck, I've been part of numerous communities for 20 + years without ever being modded once. Here? I get my first ever by criticizing Vlad. Now THAT is sad.

Anyway, as far as I'm concerned at this point, you guys are resorting to lies and distorted observations to attack me just because you don't like me. Whatever, I've been right way, WAY too many times in the past to care (I mean, you guys were all going on about how Vlad would show up on day 1 hitting everything even though it was blatantly obvious he would start off slow), and I've already proven myself here. And these arguments are sapping my enjoyment of watching the games. Maybe one day I'll find a baseball forum with mature people inhabiting it.

But I'll continue to be around. Oh, yes. Always watching...because you guys are very quick to post news updates.

What’s the big point you made that no one addressed? You keep saying the same thing but I’m honestly at a loss of what everyone seems to keep missing or avoiding. Look at last years posts about Vladdy to see if there is criticism for him. It’s weird that you perceive it as bad for a fan base to counter your points when he’s having an incredible year. So please what have all of us missed that is your main point?

 

[ryno23]

Contreras - 2.1 fWAR in 350 PA / 3.9 in 650 PA
McGuire - 0.7 fWAR in 132 PA / 3.5 in 650 PA

And he's arguably our 3rd best catcher (not including Moreno).

And that is where Advanced stats fail to put into context a player's contribution to a team. If you go by your stats you would just rather run the current catchers out there each day vs bringing in Contrares who is a superior player regardless of what the stats say.

He commands a presence behind the plate, shuts down any running game, and keeps baserunners close as he is very good at picking off runners. Put him in this lineup and his number probably ends up better vs hitting in the Cubs lineup and that would raise his WAR.

There is also some swag and fieriness the Jays can use. Has been thru the postseason on numerous occasion so that never hurts.

 

[dredeye]

I also subscribe to your club control to a certain degree but at some point, you need to pull the trigger on difference makers vs controlling players. If your goal is a World Series you need to sacrifice. If your goal is to contend and be on the fringes of a Wild Card each year then you keep the club-controlled players.

But you’re trading two great young players with lots of control for expiring contracts in the wrong year. One of the two main pieces anyway. It’s a bad deal. I have no issue trading either one in the right deal. The one you presented is not that however

 

[ryno23]

But you’re trading two great young players with lots of control for expiring contracts in the wrong year. One of the two main pieces anyway. It’s a bad deal. I have no issue trading either one in the right deal. The one you presented is not that however

Only guy is Bryant. Rest of have club control next season.

So if you were going to add Kimbrel what would you offer?

The deal is not a take it or leave it but more of a framework to address multiple needs for the Jays and help retool the Cubs. What would you do as GM of both teams?

 

[Morgs]

And that is where Advanced stats fail to put into context a player's contribution to a team. If you go by your stats you would just rather run the current catchers out there each day vs bringing in Contrares who is a superior player regardless of what the stats say.

He commands a presence behind the plate, shuts down any running game, and keeps baserunners close as he is very good at picking off runners. Put him in this lineup and his number probably ends up better vs hitting in the Cubs lineup and that would raise his WAR.

There is also some swag and fieriness the Jays can use. Has been thru the postseason on numerous occasion so that never hurts.

Sure let's trade assets for similar production of our 3rd best MLB catcher because of his swag and fieriness.

 

[BlueForever75]

Only players of interest from the Cubs is Kimbrel and Hendricks.

I would stay away from Bryant unless he comes with an extension prior to free agency. Which I highly doubt.

But both Kimbrel and Hendricks improves our team greatly this season and next.

 

[BlueForever75]

Control is great when you are rebuilding but control doesn't win you ball games. Sure you have control of Gurriel and Biggio but you are also trotting out Dolis, Thornton among the other garbage bullpen pieces. Trotting Biggio and Espinal at 3B is a playoff-caliber position? Trotting out Whack Off and Kirk as your catcher is a position worthy of a deep postseason run?

At some point, player control needs to go out the window and you got a take shot. Kimbrel, Contreras and Happ all have at least 2 playoff runs in them based on their current contracts. Bryant is the only rental.

I thought the same thing when the Cubs were dealing Gleybor Torres, Billy Mckinney for Chapman. I know Cubs fans weren't talking about team control nope they needed a closer. Club control doesn't mean crap when you got a good club and need to fill huge holes.

I can tell you most Cubs fans don't really care of Torres as they look back at the 2016 World Series video and say boy I wish we had Torres under club control still.

The Whack off as far as I am concerned is doing his job and I am perfectly fine with he, Jansen and Kirk as our catching this season. Kimbrel and Hendricks should be the only pieces the Jays are interested in from the Cubs.

If I were them I would stay away from Bryant as well. I was good acquiring him last off season but as a rental for a month and half. I would stay away. Cost is too high.

 

[GoodNewfieBoy]

Seems to me top prospects very rarely get traded in baseball deals. It’s always like “team x’s 7th and 12th best prospects” for really good players. I don’t think you need to blow up the system to get quality players.

Or am I just dumb ?

 

[BlueForever75]

Seems to me top prospects very rarely get traded in baseball deals. It’s always like “team x’s 7th and 12th best prospects” for really good players. I don’t think you need to blow up the system to get quality players.

Or am I just dumb ?

I believe you are bang on. Very rarely are top prospects dealt when acquiring the players we are talking about. Look at what Mookie Betts was dealt for! Verdugo? Quality player but no where close to a top prospect. Its safe to say our top prospects like Martin, Groshans, Pearson, Moreno etc... are likely to be in the Blue Jays system past this deadline.

 

[theaub]

Seems to me top prospects very rarely get traded in baseball deals. It’s always like “team x’s 7th and 12th best prospects” for really good players. I don’t think you need to blow up the system to get quality players.

Or am I just dumb ?

Yes. Every year all the 'analysts' come out and predict all these top prospects will be traded and then act shocked when it doesn't happen.

 

[ryno23]

Sure let's trade assets for similar production of our 3rd best MLB catcher because of his swag and fieriness.

That is the flaw from advanced stats. If you were the GM of a team and they came to you and the offered Contreras for McGuire...you'd be like nah man McGuire is almost as good based on this number on a piece of paper in front of me.

I don't think you would be employed for more than 1 hour before the owner calls you in and say you are fired.

Advance stats are great and all but no one can say any of the Jays current 3 catchers are on the same level as Contreras.

If your goal is to win a world series this year and at best make the playoffs you can't tell me Kirk, McGuire or Jansen are playoff-worthy starters. They simply aren't regardless of what the numbers say on paper.

Not a gm in the league will say no to Contreras when their catchers are Kirk, McGuire or Jansen. If Hoyer called Atkins and said straight up Jansen for Contreras how long before Atkins sends the paperwork to the MLB office. I give it 15 seconds.

 

[weems]

I believe you are bang on. Very rarely are top prospects dealt when acquiring the players we are talking about. Look at what Mookie Betts was dealt for! Verdugo? Quality player but no where close to a top prospect. Its safe to say our top prospects like Martin, Groshans, Pearson, Moreno etc... are likely to be in the Blue Jays system past this deadline.

Pretty sure Verdugo was the Dodgers best prospect and top 30 overall at the time of the trade.

 

[dredeye]

Only guy is Bryant. Rest of have club control next season.

So if you were going to add Kimbrel what would you offer?

The deal is not a take it or leave it but more of a framework to address multiple needs for the Jays and help retool the Cubs. What would you do as GM of both teams?

Well I don’t think this is the go all in year so the cost of Bryant is wasteful. This does not really address team needs either. We need starters and relievers more than anything and this trade brings in one reliever of four players involved. None of which have control past next season if I remember correctly. Maybe the inf. I’m not sure what I’d give up for Kimbrel but it wouldn’t be Lourdes or Biggio that’s for sure. That’s a drastic overpayment. It certainly wouldn’t be any of our top prospects either.

 

[SDig14]

If we did qualify both Semien and Ray, they both leave and we get 2 comp picks, how does this impact a team's draft bonus pool for the first 10 rounds? I was looking at the 2021 bonus slots, seems as though they just add that amount to our pool for those picks.

So, it would give us significantly more bonus pool to potentially go overslot on 1st round guys or overslot on guys that fall to those picks, which could land us some pieces for the future.

All that being said, screw the draft. Let's just win over the next 5 years and not worry about it guys 3-5 years away. And that means trying to keep both Ray and Semien. But at least an option if they want to leave.

 

[dredeye]

If we did qualify both Semien and Ray, they both leave and we get 2 comp picks, how does this impact a team's draft bonus pool for the first 10 rounds? I was looking at the 2021 bonus slots, seems as though they just add that amount to our pool for those picks.

So, it would give us significantly more bonus pool to potentially go overslot on 1st round guys or overslot on guys that fall to those picks, which could land us some pieces for the future.

All that being said, screw the draft. Let's just win over the next 5 years and not worry about it guys 3-5 years away. And that means trying to keep both Ray and Semien. But at least an option if they want to leave.

There are allotted values to each pick but essentially it depends if what picks we end up getting but it’s that much more money for two more draft picks. So you would be adding roughly say 2.5 million to the pool so you could absolutely reach. You can have a crazy good draft having that extra pool money

 

[ryno23]

Well I don’t think this is the go all in year so the cost of Bryant is wasteful. This does not really address team needs either. We need starters and relievers more than anything and this trade brings in one reliever of four players involved. None of which have control past next season if I remember correctly. Maybe the inf. I’m not sure what I’d give up for Kimbrel but it wouldn’t be Lourdes or Biggio that’s for sure. That’s a drastic overpayment. It certainly wouldn’t be any of our top prospects either.

I do agree if you are not going all in then the deal with Bryant included doesn't make too much sense since you are basically waving the white flag and hoping a small addition takes you over the top vs going all out and filling holes on the team this year and worry only about this year.

I am not sure Biggio is much more than a utility player on this team. He might be able to carve out a full-time role on another team but on this team, he is mostly a super-utility guy. I go back to the Chapman for Torres deal for the Cubs. If Kimbrel was the missing piece would you hesitate giving up Biggio knowing Kimbrel is the last piece or 2 left to have a legit shot at the playoffs/World Series? This team has a playoff offense but a AAA bullpen. Bonus would be no more Dolis in high leverage or ever seeing Thornton again

It's like any sports team. Fans fall in love with the players who came up thru the system while the teams market them and the TV side pumps their tires like they are the greatest but in reality, if Biggio say left this team tomorrow in a deal for Kimbrel and you are watching the world series with the Jays no one is really saying boy I wish we had Biggio instead.

At some point, the Jays will have to give up something to get a piece. I do think Kimbrel this year would give the Jays the boost they need. Forget about numbers think about it from a mental POV for the players. You know in the 9th or high leverage spot you are bringing in one of the best closers in history. As an offensive player you know if you put up 5 or 6 there is a better chance of winning vs needing to put up 10 cause your bullpen sucks. You don't need your starters to give you 7 as you can run Kimbrel, Romano, Mayza/Borucki in the 9th,8th, and 7th. You then have a combo of Richards/Cimber and the others for 6th inning duty. Even Charlie can't screw that up...well maybe

I think the starters can go 5. Ruy, Ray, Manoah can get you 5 on a consistent basis and probably closer to 6. Matz, Stripling can give you 5 and the odd time 6 is a bonus.

So if you are going to trade for Kimbrel and have the bullpen play out as described above it helps your starters and might not need to add one at the deadline. OH yeah, throw in Pearson in the bullpen and your staff is pretty good.

I think then the holes left to be a legit contender are 3B and catcher. Might as well fill 3B with Bryant on a rental and it might cost you a decent prospect but boy you are seeing an MVP season from Vlad. Semien and Ray are only guaranteed to be here this year so why not go all in.

So while I agreed with you at the start of the post by maybe not the time I think I just talked myself into why not go for it this year. You never can tell what chance you will get in the future.

No matter what they need to make a move to build this current team.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Avilaj07]

Rizzo to Boston, that's great

 

[trellaine201]

We really need to find a way to keep Semien next year and beyond if he wants to stay. He is the type of player you need to win.

 

[ShaneFalco]

We really need to find a way to keep Semien next year and beyond if he wants to stay. He is the type of player you need to win.

Yeah unfortunately we probably can't afford him