Confirmed with Link: Avs Sign Oskar Olausson to ELC

[Pokecheque]

I’d say about the only three players whom Bednar didn’t really care for who found success outside the Avs organization are AJ Greer, Nikita Zadorov, and Kiefer Sherwood. Any other guys he didn’t really give the time of day were/are pretty much worthless.

FTR it ain’t just Bednar making decisions as to who gets called up and gets a real shot at NHL ice time.

 

[AvsMakar08]

At least Newhook and Barron were utilized to get excellent value in trades.

Man, I did not even realize that Barron busted out. Nice trades.

 

[Metallo]

I can scarcely believe what I'm about to do. Here is everyone who's made their NHL debut under Bednar, as well as reclamation projects:

16/17:
Sam Henley - One game, one goal, king shit
Anton Lindholm - Terrible
A.J. Greer - Now seems to have stuck in the NHL if not on one team, but the idea of him always seems better than the results
Tyson Jost - Started off on the first powerplay unit, played over 300 games and you can't remember any of them
J.T. Compher - Inescapable

17/18:
Dominic Toninato - College FA who's up and down between the AHL and NHL his whole career
Andrei Mironov - We'll always have the masseuse
Vladislav Kamensky - Broken in half two shifts into his career
Nail Yakupov - "He skates like he's being chased by bees" is the best scouting report I've seen on HF - for accuracy and eloquence
Alexander Kerfoot - Perfectly serviceable
Sam Girard - He's been top 4 his whole time here

18/19:
Sheldon Dries - He played 40 games this season!
Ryan Graves - He got all the rope that your favourite prospect didn't
Logan O'Connor - Great success!

19/20:
Martin Kaut - He had a full beard when he was drafted, one day we'll find out he's like 40 years old
Conor Timmins - The idea of him far exceeded anything he achieved
Sampo Ranta - No brain but I remember he scored a goal that got chopped off when it shouldn't have
Valeri Nichushkin - He got healthy scratched at times this year

20/21:
Keaton Middleton - He's come back around now, he's certainly getting a chance
Kyle Burroughs - He's still the NHL but not exactly a world beater
Kiefer Sherwood - Not a debut here but has definitely developed since
Bowen Byram - Situationally not the best fit with Toews, Makar and Girard
Alex Newhook - Better than Jost though not given as much of an opportunity, but on a much deeper team

21/22:
Justin Barron - Only played two games but he was there
Ben Meyers - Those 9 games he played looked promising

22/23:
Oskar Olausson - Made me do this, so he's obviously terrible
Shane Bowers - I hope his family's not on here, he's not very good
Callahan Burke - A career in the minors awaits
Jean-Luc Foudy - The space is still there and he's still not filled it
Andreas Englund - I could never tell the difference between him, Burroughs and Middleton. Unremarkable

23/24:
Ondrej Pavel - Has 12 points in 77 AHL games
Jason Polin - Played as many as 7 games for us. Do you remember him?
Nikolai Kovalenko - He was working but now he's gone
Sam Malinski - I don't think he's any good but he's sticking around
Joel Kiviranta - The sort of cheap depth we never seem to pick up from nowhere


24/25:
I'm not going through everyone but Ivan, Prischepov, Innala, Felhaber, Steinburg and Ritchie have all made NHL debuts this year with varying degrees of success and future prospects. Have any of them been unduly cast aside?

In fact, that question again. Unless I've missed anyone, how many of these names really haven't had a fair shake?

Checked out a few stats and realized that Barron has played more NHL games than Timmins.

 

[niwotsblessing]

What ever happened to Drew Hellison?

 

[AnimalMother73]

Still cooking in Anaheim apparently…about 50:50 games between the big club and the Gulls.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Twice now I've seen this thread, and thought for like half a second.. WHY? Like they just did it lol.


Stupid scouts, a f***in YMCA volunteer staff could do a better job drafting than this team.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Twice now I've seen this thread, and thought for like half a second.. WHY? Like they just did it lol.


Stupid scouts, a f***in YMCA volunteer staff could do a better job drafting than this team.

I've maintained for the last 15 years the Avs would have drafted better and saved money by eliminating their entire amateur scouting department and using Bob MacKenzie's consolidated list instead.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I've maintained for the last 15 years the Avs would have drafted better and saved money by eliminating their entire amateur scouting department and using Bob MacKenzie's consolidated list instead.

You could even go bat shit with Craig Button and do better. I did in fantasy lol.

 

[dahrougem2]

I've maintained for the last 15 years the Avs would have drafted better and saved money by eliminating their entire amateur scouting department and using Bob MacKenzie's consolidated list instead.

For shits and giggles I'm gonna take a look and see how things would have turned out in a bit here.

 

[Balthazar]

For shits and giggles I'm gonna take a look and see how things would have turned out in a bit here.

Come back with the results please.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

For shits and giggles I'm gonna take a look and see how things would have turned out in a bit here.

I really would like to hear what you found out.

I've been toying off and on with the idea, but have always felt that I would probably give up before complete. Taking the time from the third round on to eliminate every pick taken previously in order to find out who would be the highest ranked player on Bob's list at that moment in time when the Avs were on the clock just seems like a pain in the ass.

My assumption is that you need Bobby Margarita's list and the the official list of draft picks in order. Then just one by one start scratchign names off Bobby's list until you reach the Avs pick and then check Bobby's for the highest ranked player at that point and the Avs keep him. Then rinse and repeat through all rounds. However, depending on how you can get those lists, you could probably have excel do a lot of the work (vlookups and such). Let me know how you went about it if you do end up testing the theory out.

[edit...I had thought about only doing the first three rounds, but I have a feeling we'll find the biggest differences and gains in the middle to lower rounds...but then again the skill level is on a completely lower level by the time we get to these rounds, too. However, we've been absolutely dying for good, cheap home grown bottom sixers and bottom 5-7 dmen as well.]

 

[Ceremony]

Can we do better than the Canucks version of this from way back when? Sham Sharron returns: Can an intern who doesn’t watch hockey out-draft the Canucks?

 

[Balthazar]

For shits and giggles I'm gonna take a look and see how things would have turned out in a bit here.

 

[dahrougem2]

This could take a while

 

[CobraAcesS]

This could take a while

It is also worthy of its own thread if you're really going into the late rounds.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

This could take a while

As I said earlier man, it's a strong hunch/feeling I've had for quite some time, but everytime I've sat down to try and work it out, I just feel like it's too similar to what I'm doing at work all day long. Unfortunately after a couple of decades of living inside of excel and various .sql interfaces, I'm just getting burned out of data mining much less having to create the database/dataset from scratch myself.

If there was a way to pull Bobby's list and the draft lists into excel easily and cleanly it would go a lot quicker. I just didn't really find a place to export that info.

I wish you the best man.

 

[dahrougem2]

As I said earlier man, it's a strong hunch/feeling I've had for quite some time, but everytime I've sat down to try and work it out, I just feel like it's too similar to what I'm doing at work all day long. Unfortunately after a couple of decades of living inside of excel and various .sql interfaces, I'm just getting burned out of data mining much less having to create the database/dataset from scratch myself.

If there was a way to pull Bobby's list and the draft lists into excel easily and cleanly it would go a lot quicker. I just didn't really find a place to export that info.

I wish you the best man.

I need to find a ranking that doesn't separate NA and Euro. Would make it a thousand times easier.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I need to find a ranking that doesn't separate NA and Euro. Would make it a thousand times easier.

Almost impossible because they rank them indpendently of each other. The danger I ran into was that I found myself wanting to allow Bobby's list color how I would attempt to integrate the two. I'm pretty sure the subscription services consolidate their rankings but I never came across a publically available one that did.

Tons of folks here, yourself included, follow the prospects a lot closer than I do and may know of better lists. I kinda suspect @henchman21 might now of some cosolidated rankings but their probably not publically available.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

I need to find a ranking that doesn't separate NA and Euro. Would make it a thousand times easier.

If you just take the CHL and sort by ppg do you get a better draft list by randomly drafting a player within the top ten ppg of remaining draft able players?

Outside of the first round you probably get better expected value than the Avs picks.

Forget strength of league or position or context (like being an over ager or playing with a top D+1 player on their line). Just literally ppg in the CHL.

 

[dahrougem2]

Alright so I found a reputable source which used to employ our old pal @R S who used to do some scouting work for the site, FCHockey. I only did picks up until their rankings ended for each year. The new players selected are in order of their rankings exactly OR a pick or two after where our pick is slated if they went earlier in the real draft. Here's my attempt at redrafts from 2010 until 2015 since this takes forever:

2010 Original Picks --> New Picks
Joey Hishon, 17th Overall --------------------> Jon Merrill (38th Overall)
Calvin Pickard, 49th Overall --------------------> Michal Bournival (lol, 71st Overall)
Michal Bournival, 71st Overall --------------------> Mark Stone (178th Overall)
Stephen Silas, 95th Overall --------------------> Joel Vienneau (G, Undrafted)

2011 Original Picks --> New Picks
Gabriel Landeskog, 2nd Overall --------------------> Jonathan Huberdeau (3rd Overall)
Duncan Siemens, 11th Overall --------------------> Duncan Siemens (11th Overall)
Joachim Nermark, 93rd Overall --------------------> Ryan Tesink (C, 162nd Overall)
Garret Meurs, 123rd Overall --------------------> Collin Sullivan (D, 198th Overall)
Gabriel Beaupre, 153rd Overall --------------------> Zac Larraza (LW, 195th Overall)
Dillon Donnelly, 183rd Overall --------------------> Colin Smith (192nd Overall in 2012 lol)

2012 Original Picks --> New Picks
Mitchell Heard, 41st Overall --------------------> Matt Murray (83rd Overall)
Troy Bourke, 72nd Overall --------------------> Trevor Carrick (115th Overall)
Michael Clarke, 132nd Overall --------------------> Devin Tringale (Undrafted)
Joseph Blandisi, 162nd Overall --------------------> Valeri Vasiliev (201st Overall)
Colin Smith, 192nd Overall --------------------> Ashton Sautner (Undrafted)

2013 Original Picks --> New Picks
Nathan MacKinnon, 1st Overall --------------------> Seth Jones (4th Overall)
Chris Bigras, 32nd Overall --------------------> Zach Fucale (36th Overall)
Spencer Martin, 63rd Overall --------------------> Matt Buckles (98th Overall)
Mason Geertsen, 93rd Overall --------------------> Greg Betzold (Undrafted)
Will Butcher, 123rd Overall --------------------> Evan Allen (Undrafted)
Ben Storm, 153rd Overall --------------------> Matt Mcardle (Undrafted)
Wilhelm Westlund, 183rd Overall --------------------> Tyler Lewington (204th Overall)

2014 Original Picks --> New Picks
Conner Bleackley, 23rd Overall --------------------> Nikolay Goldobin (27th Overall)
Kyle Wood, 84th Overall --------------------> Olivier Leblanc (197th Overall)
Nick Magyar, 93rd Overall --------------------> J.D. Dudek (152nd Overall)
Alex Pepin, 114th Overall --------------------> Hayden Lavigne (Undrafted)
Anton Lindholm, 144th Overall --------------------> Francis Perron (190th Overall)
Max Pajpach, 174th Overall --------------------> August Gunnarsson (Undrafted)
Julien Nanten, 204th Overall --------------------> No Ranking Given

2015 Original Picks --> New Picks
Mikko Rantanen, 10th Overall --------------------> Lawson Crouse (11th Overall)
A.J. Greer, 39th Overall --------------------> Jordan Greenway (50th Overall)
Nic Meloche, 40th Overall --------------------> Tommy Novak (85th Overall)
J.C. Beaudin, 71st Overall --------------------> Ryan Pilon (147th Overall)
Andrei Mironov, 101st Overall --------------------> David Kase (128th Overall)
Sergei Boikov, 161st Overall --------------------> Alexandre Alain (Undrafted)
Gustav Olhaver, 191st Overall --------------------> David Miller (Undrafted)

I'm also going to do what @NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS suggested and am going to strictly draft from the CHL for these drafts using PPG (or total points if PPG was too small of a sample size) for draft eligible players and see where we end up.

Some notes:

- This is just one scouting service, not a combined scouting report of a ton of different services so they obviously have their biases and players they like.

- I didn't put any emotion into it. For example, in the 2014 draft they had Jake Evans ranked 169th, we took Pajpach 174th but Evans didn't actually get drafted until the 207th pick and we know how good of a pick that turned out to be for Montreal. I went purely based on their rankings.

- I think we come out a lot worse using something like this. Some of that has to do with players we took they ranked higher (Mikko was ranked 8th, for example) but some of that also has to do with taking the likes of Seth Jones ahead of Nathan MacKinnon and selecting a bunch of undrafted players who literally stopped playing hockey after their draft years lol.

Overall, the best pick we make using this service is obviously Mark Stone while the pick we make the biggest mistake of making is Seth Jones.

 

[dahrougem2]

Alright this one took a tad bit longer because I had to sort three different leagues. What I did was go by PPG for skaters in junior for their birth year and made selections based on that league for that pick. For example, Joey Hishon was picked from the OHL so that pick is from the OHL rather than searching the other leagues. It's impossible to find a free site where stats are kept and you can filter for draft eligible players for a particular season.

Also, didn't bother changing goalies because f*** that noise looking up their statistics, and Euros were kept since those point totals are always out of whack when they play in men's leagues versus junior leagues. Ditto NCAA/USHL dudes.

2010 Original Picks --> New Picks
Joey Hishon, 17th Overall --------------------> Joey Hishon, 17th Overall
Calvin Pickard, 49th Overall --------------------> Calvin Pickard, 49th Overall
Michal Bournival, 71st Overall --------------------> Alex Belzile, Undrafted
Stephen Silas, 95th Overall --------------------> Mike Cazzola, Undrafted

2011 Original Picks --> New Picks
Gabriel Landeskog, 2nd Overall --------------------> Tyler Toffoli, 47th Overall
Duncan Siemens, 11th Overall --------------------> Sven Baertschi, 13th Overall
Joachim Nermark, 93rd Overall --------------------> Joachim Nermark, 93rd Overall
Garret Meurs, 123rd Overall --------------------> Michael Sgarbossa, Undrafted
Gabriel Beaupre, 153rd Overall --------------------> Zach O'Brien, Undrafted
Dillon Donnelly, 183rd Overall --------------------> Alex Saulnier, Undrafted

2012 Original Picks --> New Picks
Mitchell Heard, 41st Overall --------------------> Tanner Richard, 71st Overall
Troy Bourke, 72nd Overall --------------------> Michael St. Croix, 106th Overall
Michael Clarke, 132nd Overall --------------------> Eric Locke, 189th Overall in 2013
Joseph Blandisi, 162nd Overall --------------------> Zach Hall, Undrafted
Colin Smith, 192nd Overall --------------------> Colin Smith, 192nd Overall

2013 Original Picks --> New Picks
Nathan MacKinnon, 1st Overall --------------------> Jonathan Drouin, 3rd Overall
Chris Bigras, 32nd Overall --------------------> Henri Ikonen, 154th Overall
Spencer Martin, 63rd Overall --------------------> Spencer Martin, 63rd Overall
Mason Geertsen, 93rd Overall --------------------> Peter Quenneville, 195th Overall
Will Butcher, 123rd Overall --------------------> Will Butcher, 123rd Overall
Ben Storm, 153rd Overall --------------------> Ben Storm, 153rd Overall
Wilhelm Westlund, 183rd Overall --------------------> Wilhelm Westlund, 183rd Overall

2014 Original Picks --> New Picks
Conner Bleackley, 23rd Overall --------------------> Nikita Scherbak, 26th Overall
Kyle Wood, 84th Overall --------------------> Kevin Labanc, 171st Overall
Nick Magyar, 93rd Overall --------------------> Sergei Tolchinsky, Undrafted
Alex Pepin, 114th Overall --------------------> Vladimir Tkachev, Undrafted
Anton Lindholm, 144th Overall --------------------> Anton Lindholm, 144th Overall
Max Pajpach, 174th Overall --------------------> Max Pajpach, 174th Overall
Julien Nantel, 204th Overall --------------------> Michael Joly, Undrafted

2015 Original Picks --> New Picks
Mikko Rantanen, 10th Overall --------------------> Mikko Rantanen, 10th Overall
A.J. Greer, 39th Overall --------------------> Conor Garland, 123rd Overall
Nic Meloche, 40th Overall --------------------> Dmytro Timashov, 125th Overall
J.C. Beaudin, 71st Overall --------------------> Kay Schweri, Undrafted
Andrei Mironov, 101st Overall --------------------> Andrei Mironov, 101st Overall
Sergei Boikov, 161st Overall --------------------> Max Lazarev, Undrafted
Gustav Olhaver, 191st Overall --------------------> Gustav Olhaver, 191st Overall

F*** me this ends up with some really shitty hockey players lol. The only good picks look to be Labanc and Garland.

 

[Balthazar]

@dahrougem2 I thought you'd do only first rounders...who we picked vs who was the BPA on Bob's list.

This isn't as dramatic as we'd think:

2016 #10:
Avs: Tyson Jost --> Bob: Logan Brown

2017 #4
Avs: Cale Makar --> Bob: Cale Makar

2018 #16
Avs: Martin Kaut --> Bob: Ty Smith

2019: #4
Avs Bowen Byram --> Bob: Bowen Byram

2019: #16
Avs: Alex Newhook --> Bob: Peyton Krebs

2020: #25
Avs: Justin Barron --> Bob: Jacob Perreault

2021: #28
Avs: Oskar Olausson --> Bob: Francesco Pinelli

2022: no 1st

2023-2024 is too recent to bother.

 

[McMetal]

LOL after all these years of everyone here (myself included) just absolutely dunking on Avs scouts and saying a wasted monkey throwing darts could do a better job, the data is in, and turns out it actually could be worse.

 

[dahrougem2]

LOL after all these years of everyone here (myself included) just absolutely dunking on Avs scouts and saying a wasted monkey throwing darts could do a better job, the data is in, and turns out it actually could be worse.

To be fair, the Avs scouts from 2010 - 2015 ended up with 6 legitimate NHLers - one being Will Butcher who hasn't been in the NHL for years - while that scouting service ended up with 8.

If we were to combine the data from, say, 10 reputable scouting services for each year into a collaborative report where biases are mostly put aside and it' a consensus ranking, I'll bet we'd see that list produce more legitimate NHLers than the Avs scouts did.

 

[Hasbro]

I've maintained for the last 15 years the Avs would have drafted better and saved money by eliminating their entire amateur scouting department and using Bob MacKenzie's consolidated list instead.

The Mike Chambers homer picks also would have worked better.