Speculation: AVS Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents & Related Topics 2016-17 Part XVII

[RoyIsALegend]

Is there some chance Duchene gets dealt to a team that has too many defensemen to protect in the expansion draft? Is that a more likely way to get good value for him? I shudder to think about Duchene on the Wild.

That's exactly what we've been discussing with an Ottawa trade. Ceci might not even get protected.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

No because they'd have to find a way to protect Duchene. Unless they have no forwards but if they have too many D then they are already doing 4/4 and adding Duchene to that likely doesn't help.

Wouldn't having 4/4 trading them for Duchene allow them to do 7/3? This would be beneficial for Duchene's value for sure.

It would be "buying" 2 more expansion slots in a way. Because you have to protect Duchene.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Wouldn't having 4/4 trading them for Duchene allow them to do 7/3? This would be beneficial for Duchene's value for sure.

It would be "buying" 2 more expansion slots in a way. Because you have to protect Duchene.

The assumption is they have too many D at 4/4, so removing one still means they go 4/4

 

[Balthazar]

One solution would be to trade Duchene for two "have to be protected" players. We have plenty of protection slots.

It has to be this ideal scenario though:

1) Team X would lose "good player" to the expansion draft.
2) Team X doesn't really care about the "next in line" player they'd lose to the expansion draft.
3) Team X is willing to trade "good player" + "roster player 2" for Duchene.

Under normal circumstances, team X wouldn't trade those 2 players for Duchene but since they were going to lose one for nothing, it's now a possibility.

 

[Murzu]

One solution would be to trade Duchene for two "have to be protected" players. We have plenty of protection slots.

It has to be this ideal scenario though:

1) Team X would lose "good player" to the expansion draft.
2) Team X doesn't really care about the "next in line" player they'd lose to the expansion draft.
3) Team X is willing to trade "good player" + "roster player 2" for Duchene.

Under normal circumstances, team X wouldn't trade those 2 players for Duchene but since they were going to lose one for nothing, it's now a possibility.

Duchene for Dumba and Brodin?

Imagine Duchene in Wild jersey. Ugh.

 

[avs1dacup]

Duchene for Dumba and Brodin?

Imagine Duchene in Wild jersey. Ugh.

You just know he'd play with Parise and manage to put up like 90 points.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Duchene for Dumba and Brodin?

Imagine Duchene in Wild jersey. Ugh.

I would seriously start cheering for another team if Joe did that. I would root for guys like Z, Rantanen, Mackinnon and Jost but I would stop cheering for this team haha. It was bad enough when Brad May put on this jersey. I think that's when I began to dislike Pierre Lacroix lol.

 

[Balthazar]

Yeah, what if trading Duchene to the Wild would turn us into an awful team and would make them a top tier team.

That's way too risky

 

[InjuredChoker]

You have to remember, we're not really "casual fans", so the "PR move" of it isn't going to be to placate someone like you or me. Personally, I'm "meh" on Ceci. I don't hate him nearly as much as some others do, but I also don't think he's anything great like some Sens fans think he is. And the Sens possibly choosing to protect Methot over him has more to do, I think, with Methot's current position on the depth chart AND the Senators believing that Chabot is a contributor as soon as next year, less than it is to do with Ceci as a player.

why would that be a big factor in choosing methot over ceci, especially over ceci as a player?

 

[RockLobster]

why would that be a big factor in choosing methot over ceci, especially over ceci as a player?

Because they like Methot more than Ceci and feel they have a player that can come in and contribute at at lest the same level as Ceci, therefore they're not "too bummed" about losing him for nothing. The alternative, would be to use him in a trade and at least get something for him (in this instance, even adding on some other pieces). That's my take on it.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

The assumption is they have too many D at 4/4, so removing one still means they go 4/4

Hmm I think Ottawa only has 3 though + Ceci?

It would work for them. Minnesota you are correct.

 

[Foppa2118]

-Chabot's name was never in discussions, Ottawa was absolutely not willing to make him available.

-The inclusion of Ceci had two reasons: 1) He's a 23 year old Defenseman who the Avs could say "We acquired a defenseman"...basically, he's young, he still has some potential (but is coming close to not harnessing it), and 2) it'd be the "PR piece" of the trade. The real crown jewel of the trade would've been White and Ottawa's 1st. With White, the Avs would've really had the draft board opened up, because they'd have him, Jost, and MacKinnon as Center options next season (if Jost actually makes the team). The Avs could still take Patrick, or maybe then they like Vilardi/Tippett/etc. and want to move down. The point being that White would've filled a big-time hole as a great #2 Center for the team.

-Ceci is the most likely defender to be exposed in the Expansion Draft (from my understanding). It doesn't sound, as of right now, that Phaneuf is wanting to waive his NMC, and my understanding is that the Senators don't want to lose Methot either. So that leaves Ceci out to dry. This is absolutely a deal that could be re-visited in the off-season, but before the Expansion Draft.

Chabot's name was in there as the ask from the Avalanche. For sure. Ottawa didn't want to give him up obviously. The deal fell apart, and I think some people are trying to connect the dots with third or fourth hand information that may be missing some of the details.

Unless we were in on those conversations, and know what Sakic's end goal was with those particular negotiations, I don't think it's entirely accurate to say things like he was willing to accept Ceci as the main D man coming back.

That could have been on a certain day, and it was intended to push negotiations down a certain path to get something else. It could have involved also getting two other top prospects plus a 1st. It could have been dependent on getting a top D man in a separate deal for Landeskog. It could have been setting the table for a draft day trade as a fall back option, not as a primary option. It could have been dependent on drafting a D man in this years draft. It could have been setting the table for a draft day trade and dependent on getting a top D man in a separate deal for Landeskog.

People often don't hear whispers on the whole story, they only hear part of it, and then try to connect it to other things they heard at separate times. Somethings are simple and can be relayed accurately. Big deals like this often have a lot of moving parts to negotiations that require the details to analyze them properly.

 

[AslanRH]

You underestimate how easy some would get on board with Sakic (or whoever is GM when/if the trade is made) saying something along the lines of "Well with Ceci, he's 23, he's a young defender but he's been in the league for a while. We like his upside" and so on and so forth. The casual fans would eat it up because the team and Altitude would talk about his draft placement (which I know doesn't really mean anything, but it's a talking point for the casual fans), and they'd string together some of his best highlights in a video package.

You have to remember, we're not really "casual fans", so the "PR move" of it isn't going to be to placate someone like you or me. Personally, I'm "meh" on Ceci. I don't hate him nearly as much as some others do, but I also don't think he's anything great like some Sens fans think he is. And the Sens possibly choosing to protect Methot over him has more to do, I think, with Methot's current position on the depth chart AND the Senators believing that Chabot is a contributor as soon as next year, less than it is to do with Ceci as a player.

This is true

Just look how the dialog changed when Wiercioch was signed or Comeau, Colborne, Iginla, Beauchemin, Gelinas and Redmond before that. Follow down the rabbit hole even further and watch how more reasoned people are when evaluating players who have left their favorite team.

Even non-casual fans are predisposed to accentuate the positives once faced with having to see a player on their team for any length of time and more likely to have a balanced opinion of players they lose. On HF this occurs most notably with prospects.

 

[Ararana]

This was on TSN last night



So lets assume for a minute that the Tavares situation plays out this way and they trade him at the draft. How badly does this hurt Duchene's trade value when an obviously better first line center is available as well?

Now Duchene will have 2 years left on his contract by the draft, Tavares will only have 1 and will probably be a pure rental. Tavares also has a modified NTC in which he can choose 8 teams to not be traded to. I'm sure more than one team will be looking for a top line center, but this definitely doesn't help the situation.

 

[AvsGuy]

I don't think Tavares being on the market will change Duchene's value, if anything it'll redefine it properly. Tavares should bring back a haul in a trade, Duchene slightly less.

I didn't watch it, why are the Isles even contemplating trading Tavares? Does he really not want to stay there? Don't totally blame him.

 

[Metallo]

This was on TSN last night



So lets assume for a minute that the Tavares situation plays out this way and they trade him at the draft. How badly does this hurt Duchene's trade value when an obviously better first line center is available as well?

Now Duchene will have 2 years left on his contract by the draft, Tavares will only have 1 and will probably be a pure rental. Tavares also has a modified NTC in which he can choose 8 teams to not be traded to. I'm sure more than one team will be looking for a top line center, but this definitely doesn't help the situation.

I don't think a player of Tavares' magnitude is traded as a pure rental. Here the buyer and the seller will base the trade on a signed Tavares.

I does affect the dynamics of a Duchene trade this summer and may even prevent/delay it.

 

[henchman21]

Tavares will be the biggest center on the trade market and it wouldn't be considered rental (he will pretty much have a blank check wherever he goes)... it would absolutely impact Duchene's value and team would rather have Tavares. Hell, I'd trade Duchene ++ for Tavares.

 

[Balthazar]

I don't think Tavares is tradable. He'd cost too much in assets to make the move profitable for any potential buyer.

 

[UncleRisto]

I don't think Tavares is tradable. He'd cost too much in assets to make the move profitable for any potential buyer.

What if it's between something and nothing for Snow? Does he prefer nothing?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

The difference in value between JT and Duchene is substantial. Even with Dutchy having an additional year.

 

[Avs44]

Obviously Tavares would bring down Duchene's value - but I don't think it will happen. Snow loses his job unless he obliterates a team in that trade, and Isles franchise would take a big step back.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

Duchene + Barrie for JT?

 

[CalderKing21]

I don't think Tavares is tradable. He'd cost too much in assets to make the move profitable for any potential buyer.

But if you are a team that has a ton of assets but lack a legit go to player, it'd be worth it.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Toronto Sports Network being the puppets they are for their overlords. JT wont be leaving NYI and if they trade him that org is more ****ed than we are.

 

[Bender]

Tavares will be the biggest center on the trade market and it wouldn't be considered rental (he will pretty much have a blank check wherever he goes)... it would absolutely impact Duchene's value and team would rather have Tavares. Hell, I'd trade Duchene ++ for Tavares.

It might but I personally don't think they'll be on the market at the same time.

The Avs should be set to trade Duchene by the drafts...either expansion or entry. They should have all of their offers in by that time and then can make the move. (As I've said previously a number of times...I think Nashville makes a ton of sense, imo)

If the Islanders are trying to get JT on a long-term extension and the Tavares camp doesn't want to do it, history tells us that they probably won't come out and say it. They'll play it all aloof and say things like "we're going to look at it this summer when John has had some time to think things through" sort of thing.

I think Garth Snow is much more likely to make a big move in an attempt to convince JT to stay rather than trade him outright at the draft.