Speculation: AVS Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents & Related Topics 2016-17 Part XVII

[Foppa2118]

I'm in favor of waiting a year until the summer of 2018 if need be to get the right return for Duchene. He'll be eligible to negotiate a new deal with a new team just like ROR. That absolutely could affect his value for some teams.

It's certainly possible that his value could be lower if they wait, but since he's having the second worse season of his career (2011-12 was only season worse in points per game) I think you have to play the odds a bit, and think there's a better chance of next season being better, not worse.

He'll have a whole summer to reset his mindset, which as we know is THE thing that puts him in these slumps. The team will have an injection of youth, and a lot of the bad mojo will be gone. A lot of the defeatist and fragile mentality will be swapped out for young players with hopes of impressing the coaching staff, and winning in the NHL. That could change a lot of the problems with this team, and cut down on a lot of the mental errors due to low confidence, and the fear of making mistakes.

If for instance they start to go on a bit of a streak to begin the year, and Duchene goes on one of his own streaks, then his value could soar, and it could be a great time to move Duchene.

The main reason to wait though IMO, is to get the right defenseman as the main piece of the return. They become available every now and then, but it would seem that we're in a period where maybe they aren't. The year before Seth Jones was available, but by all accounts Sakic passed. Suban and Weber got moved. Trouba was likely available previously in the past, but perhaps not right now. Hamonic was available in the past, but perhaps not now.

I think again you have to play the odds a little bit, and say that if a top pairing type D man isn't available right now, then the odds increase by the day that they will be in the future. So as painful as it might be, the best plan of action might be to wait for one until you absolutely have to move Duchene. That time being the summer before he becomes UFA like ROR.

 

[Avs44]

If they are going to have to bite the bullet on a Duchene trade and have to accept an ROR-like futures deal, I'd rather get those futures into the organization this year rather than next year. Duchene needs to be moved this off-season; no two ways about it in my opinion, frankly. Teams aren't trading a Jones or Trouba for Duchene with only 1+ years left on his contract after the new season starts - they'll be asking for MacKinnon, in that scenario.

 

[Foppa2118]

If they are going to have to bite the bullet on a Duchene trade and have to accept an ROR-like futures deal, I'd rather get those futures into the organization this year rather than next year. Duchene needs to be moved this off-season; no two ways about it in my opinion, frankly. Teams aren't trading a Jones or Trouba for Duchene with only 1+ years left on his contract after the new season starts - they'll be asking for MacKinnon, in that scenario.

If Duchene negotiates a new deal with the new team, than his 1 year till UFA status has very little impact on his value. It actually could increase it if he agrees to a deal they're comfortable with. He's not allowed to negotiate a new deal right now.

That's not to say his value for sure will be higher and not lower. Just that it's not set in stone either way. So I would argue, there isn't a desperate need to move him this off season because of his UFA status.

 

[AvsMakar08]

I'm in favor of waiting a year until the summer of 2018 if need be to get the right return for Duchene. He'll be eligible to negotiate a new deal with a new team just like ROR. That absolutely could affect his value for some teams.

It's certainly possible that his value could be lower if they wait, but since he's having the second worse season of his career (2011-12 was only season worse in points per game) I think you have to play the odds a bit, and think there's a better chance of next season being better, not worse.

He'll have a whole summer to reset his mindset, which as we know is THE thing that puts him in these slumps. The team will have an injection of youth, and a lot of the bad mojo will be gone. A lot of the defeatist and fragile mentality will be swapped out for young players with hopes of impressing the coaching staff, and winning in the NHL. That could change a lot of the problems with this team, and cut down on a lot of the mental errors due to low confidence, and the fear of making mistakes.

If for instance they start to go on a bit of a streak to begin the year, and Duchene goes on one of his own streaks, then his value could soar, and it could be a great time to move Duchene.

The main reason to wait though IMO, is to get the right defenseman as the main piece of the return. They become available every now and then, but it would seem that we're in a period where maybe they aren't. The year before Seth Jones was available, but by all accounts Sakic passed. Suban and Weber got moved. Trouba was likely available previously in the past, but perhaps not right now. Hamonic was available in the past, but perhaps not now.

I think again you have to play the odds a little bit, and say that if a top pairing type D man isn't available right now, then the odds increase by the day that they will be in the future. So as painful as it might be, the best plan of action might be to wait for one until you absolutely have to move Duchene. That time being the summer before he becomes UFA like ROR.

I agree with you, but Avs should also get a 1st round pick and a top prospect.

 

[hughdreamz]

Avs need to move Duchene this summer. Honestly they have put the guy through this BS for 2 seasons straight now where his name was out there and it clearly affects his game. Doing it again next deadline or during the season is just poor management. Especially if we can get 2-3 pieces into the organization now.

 

[AnimalMother73]

What's not clear to me, watching this young crop of players, is whether or not any are franchise talents. Too streaky (Duchene); well rounded but low offensive ceiling (Landy); too one dimensional (Barrie, Duchene). Good if not great complimentary players absolutely. Mackinnon is the only one who, in my opinion, has a remote chance. Maybe a large reason for the teams significant shortcomings is being fooled into thinking they had more franchise level talent than they do.

Think of it like trying to build the Avs in the early 2000s around players like Drury and Hedjuk w/ out Sakic, Forsberg, and Bourque. Even if they had Blake and Foote not sure that roster would go far.

Getting around to my point, what's a complimentary player worth? Even for a top notch one its going to be less than what's been argued the last few months and I'm not sure its going to matter much when it happens either so long as he/they are unable to walk for free.

 

[Balthazar]

Avs need to move Duchene this summer.

I'm far from being convinced that Sakic will get better offers during the summer.

 

[CalderKing21]

Either bend a team over at the draft or keep Duchene and draft a damn D man.

 

[Avs44]

I'm far from being convinced that Sakic will get better offers during the summer.

I think he will get more suitors. If they were willing to accept Ceci as the centrepiece on defense, and there were rumors about Maatta, then I could see a team like the Kings coming into play, since clearly, if the rest of the pieces were good enough (e.g. White+1st), the Avs were willing to explore lesser options on defense. For example, the Kings badly need an offensively skilled forward, LaDue has apparently looked good, and with the expansion draft upcoming, I wonder if a deal like Forbort+Kings 1st (+) would get the Avs attention. That could be the type of deal that happens draft day, depending on what's there at the Kings' pick, which certainly looks like it is going to be top 15, and could also easily be top 10. If a defender is there at that pick that they like? I can see a lot more potential deals that will be workable.

 

[Foppberg]

I think he will get more suitors. If they were willing to accept Ceci as the centrepiece on defense, and there were rumors about Maatta, then I could see a team like the Kings coming into play, since clearly, if the rest of the pieces were good enough (e.g. White+1st), the Avs were willing to explore lesser options on defense. For example, the Kings badly need an offensively skilled forward, LaDue has apparently looked good, and with the expansion draft upcoming, I wonder if a deal like Forbort+Kings 1st (+) would get the Avs attention. That could be the type of deal that happens draft day, depending on what's there at the Kings' pick, which certainly looks like it is going to be top 15, and could also easily be top 10. If a defender is there at that pick that they like? I can see a lot more potential deals that will be workable.

Maybe I underrate Forbort but that sounds like a horrible offer.

 

[Avs44]

Maybe I underrate Forbort but that sounds like a horrible offer.

I peg him at a similar level to Ceci, frankly. Maybe that's because I don't like Ceci, but I think Forbort would be a fine partner for Barrie. Assuming the pick is in the 8-12 range, and a good forward prospect? I expect that's where offers will be going, and I hope the Avs will be listening. If there is a defense prospect they like at that spot, like I said (e.g. hypothetically high on Foote), I can potentially see something of that sort.

 

[Foppberg]

I peg him at a similar level to Ceci, frankly. Maybe that's because I don't like Ceci, but I think Forbort would be a fine partner for Barrie. Assuming the pick is in the 8-12 range, and a good forward prospect? I expect that's where offers will be going, and I hope the Avs will be listening. If there is a defense prospect they like at that spot, like I said (e.g. hypothetically high on Foote), I can potentially see something of that sort.

And you'd be comfortable dealing Duchene for a deal centered around a Ceci level player?

 

[Avs44]

And you'd be comfortable dealing Duchene for a deal centered around a Ceci level player?

The centrepiece would be the top 10 pick, and it doesn't matter what I think I suppose. They were willing to accept Ceci as the best defender coming back from Ottawa.

 

[Foppa2118]

The centrepiece would be the top 10 pick, and it doesn't matter what I think I suppose. They were willing to accept Ceci as the best defender coming back from Ottawa.

I haven't been around here as much lately. Did someone say Sakic was willing to accept Ceci as the main D man coming back?

 

[Avs44]

I haven't been around here as much lately. Did someone say Sakic was willing to accept Ceci as the main D man coming back?

I believe Ceci, White, and 1st was put forward by Dater as the ask, Garrioch said the same thing, and because henchy mentioned that specific deal about 24 hours before anyone else, I suspect he heard something.

 

[Foppa2118]

I believe Ceci, White, and 1st was put forward by Dater as the ask, Garrioch said the same thing, and because henchy mentioned that specific deal about 24 hours before anyone else, I suspect he heard something.

I think Chabot's name was in there as well as an option. I think some people knew some of the pieces involved but not necessarily the exact deal. Happens all the time.

Same for when rumors highlight certain players in a deal, and they think it was close because that was the one conversation they had connections to, or were aware of. They think it was close because they didn't hear about the other deals being discussed, like they heard about the one. They interpret that as the one they heard about must be the closest one.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

Maybe I underrate Forbort but that sounds like a horrible offer.

Forbort probably will end up being a solid 3 D man for the next 10 years in the NHL with the ability to be a #2 at times.

That said, when he was at UND, I saw FLASHES of him being able to take his game to the Pronger level...and at age 25 he is just entering the window where we will see if that is the case. That said, it is much more likely he fills that #3/4 role. Honestly he could very well have a career not all that different from FB. A few notable seasons mixed in with a good deal of solid hockey.


IF he is what is coming from LA, their also has to be a 1st round pick and another top prospect coming along too IMO.

I also wonder if Avs ownership would be game to do something a bit out of left field and retain money on Duchene? The Avs won't be a cap team next season and almost certainly wont be the following year either. Would they retain half on Duchene to drive up his value to cap teams like the Kings or Hawks? How much value does that add to the deal?

Avs:
Forbort
LaDue
Kempe
Kings 1st 2017

Kings:
Duchene (50% retained)


Something the Kings consider given the Avs willingness to get them a scoring winger/center on the cap cheap?

 

[tucker3434]

Forbort probably will end up being a solid 3 D man for the next 10 years in the NHL with the ability to be a #2 at times.

That said, when he was at UND, I saw FLASHES of him being able to take his game to the Pronger level...and at age 25 he is just entering the window where we will see if that is the case. That said, it is much more likely he fills that #3/4 role. Honestly he could very well have a career not all that different from FB. A few notable seasons mixed in with a good deal of solid hockey.


IF he is what is coming from LA, their also has to be a 1st round pick and another top prospect coming along too IMO.

I also wonder if Avs ownership would be game to do something a bit out of left field and retain money on Duchene? The Avs won't be a cap team next season and almost certainly wont be the following year either. Would they retain half on Duchene to drive up his value to cap teams like the Kings or Hawks? How much value does that add to the deal?

Avs:
Forbort
LaDue
Kempe
Kings 1st 2017

Kings:
Duchene (50% retained)


Something the Kings consider given the Avs willingness to get them a scoring winger/center on the cap cheap?

I don't care if we can afford it, the only way I trade Duchene at 50% is an absolute fleecing. I don't think that's it.

 

[RockLobster]

The centrepiece would be the top 10 pick, and it doesn't matter what I think I suppose. They were willing to accept Ceci as the best defender coming back from Ottawa.

I haven't been around here as much lately. Did someone say Sakic was willing to accept Ceci as the main D man coming back?

I believe Ceci, White, and 1st was put forward by Dater as the ask, Garrioch said the same thing, and because henchy mentioned that specific deal about 24 hours before anyone else, I suspect he heard something.

I think Chabot's name was in there as well as an option.

-Chabot's name was never in discussions, Ottawa was absolutely not willing to make him available.

-The inclusion of Ceci had two reasons: 1) He's a 23 year old Defenseman who the Avs could say "We acquired a defenseman"...basically, he's young, he still has some potential (but is coming close to not harnessing it), and 2) it'd be the "PR piece" of the trade. The real crown jewel of the trade would've been White and Ottawa's 1st. With White, the Avs would've really had the draft board opened up, because they'd have him, Jost, and MacKinnon as Center options next season (if Jost actually makes the team). The Avs could still take Patrick, or maybe then they like Vilardi/Tippett/etc. and want to move down. The point being that White would've filled a big-time hole as a great #2 Center for the team.

-Ceci is the most likely defender to be exposed in the Expansion Draft (from my understanding). It doesn't sound, as of right now, that Phaneuf is wanting to waive his NMC, and my understanding is that the Senators don't want to lose Methot either. So that leaves Ceci out to dry. This is absolutely a deal that could be re-visited in the off-season, but before the Expansion Draft.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Either bend a team over at the draft or keep Duchene and draft a damn D man.

We need the extra 1st from the Duchene trade to draft the defenseman

 

[Ivan13]

-Chabot's name was never in discussions, Ottawa was absolutely not willing to make him available.

-The inclusion of Ceci had two reasons: 1) He's a 23 year old Defenseman who the Avs could say "We acquired a defenseman"...basically, he's young, he still has some potential (but is coming close to not harnessing it), and 2) it'd be the "PR piece" of the trade. The real crown jewel of the trade would've been White and Ottawa's 1st. With White, the Avs would've really had the draft board opened up, because they'd have him, Jost, and MacKinnon as Center options next season (if Jost actually makes the team). The Avs could still take Patrick, or maybe then they like Vilardi/Tippett/etc. and want to move down. The point being that White would've filled a big-time hole as a great #2 Center for the team.

-Ceci is the most likely defender to be exposed in the Expansion Draft (from my understanding). It doesn't sound, as of right now, that Phaneuf is wanting to waive his NMC, and my understanding is that the Senators don't want to lose Methot either. So that leaves Ceci out to dry. This is absolutely a deal that could be re-visited in the off-season, but before the Expansion Draft.

With all due respect, Ceci makes little sense as a PR piece because most casuals have no idea who he is. Also, him being left for expansion shows how highly they actually think of him. If he was close as good as Sens fans make him out to be there's no way Sens would protect a 31-year-old over him, no matter how close that 31-year-old and Karlsson are.

 

[RockLobster]

With all due respect, Ceci makes little sense as a PR piece because most casuals have no idea who he is. Also, him being left for expansion shows how highly they actually think of him. If he was close as good as Sens fans make him out to be there's no way Sens would protect a 31-year-old over him, no matter how close that 31-year-old and Karlsson are.

You underestimate how easy some would get on board with Sakic (or whoever is GM when/if the trade is made) saying something along the lines of "Well with Ceci, he's 23, he's a young defender but he's been in the league for a while. We like his upside" and so on and so forth. The casual fans would eat it up because the team and Altitude would talk about his draft placement (which I know doesn't really mean anything, but it's a talking point for the casual fans), and they'd string together some of his best highlights in a video package.

You have to remember, we're not really "casual fans", so the "PR move" of it isn't going to be to placate someone like you or me. Personally, I'm "meh" on Ceci. I don't hate him nearly as much as some others do, but I also don't think he's anything great like some Sens fans think he is. And the Sens possibly choosing to protect Methot over him has more to do, I think, with Methot's current position on the depth chart AND the Senators believing that Chabot is a contributor as soon as next year, less than it is to do with Ceci as a player.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Next year is going to be another awful season, so I'm okay with not getting back an NHL proven top 4 defender in a Duchene trade. If that means we can get even better prospects(top 6 F, top 2 D, 1st round pick), I'm all for it. I really don't see what a meh player like Ceci does for us, especially with two vastly superior players in EJ/Barrie ahead of him. Don't want any part of him.

 

[AvsGuy]

Is there some chance Duchene gets dealt to a team that has too many defensemen to protect in the expansion draft? Is that a more likely way to get good value for him? I shudder to think about Duchene on the Wild.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Is there some chance Duchene gets dealt to a team that has too many defensemen to protect in the expansion draft? Is that a more likely way to get good value for him? I shudder to think about Duchene on the Wild.

No because they'd have to find a way to protect Duchene. Unless they have no forwards but if they have too many D then they are already doing 4/4 and adding Duchene to that likely doesn't help.