Auston Matthews is one of the worst even-strength scorers in the entire league
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OP you mean this year right? Like the first year you started watching him or tracking him?
Martin Skoula
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- Oct 18, 2017
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My point is that the top scorer age curve is just a proxy measurement for "guys who were most likely to get seriously injured by 25". The players who drop off don't have gradual reductions in play from 23 to 24 to 25, they have a specific moment where they get concussed or break their leg in half that fundamentally changes how they play for the next few seasons and drops their productivity. Matthews could very well run into such an injury but it's not going to be just a gradual fall-off with no explanation other than "age curve", it's going to be something like a concussion, back injury, or complete wrist reconstruction that takes him out of commission for 40+ games and he never comes back the same.
Most top scorers come into the league at 18 or 19 weighing 185 pounds soaking wet and are expected to play 20+ minutes a night while being the other teams #1 checking target. You don't get to do that and stay healthy for very long until you build up adult mass and on-ice awareness from experience.
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TheDoldrums
Registered User
just a reminder, even strength goals since Matthews joined the NHL
1. Matthews - 198 (425 games)
2. McDavid - 181 (459 games)
3. Ovechkin - 168 (454 games)
4. Drai/Pasta/Marchand - 141
pretty big gaps there tbh
1. Matthews - 198 (425 games)
2. McDavid - 181 (459 games)
3. Ovechkin - 168 (454 games)
4. Drai/Pasta/Marchand - 141
pretty big gaps there tbh
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PromisedLand
I need more FOOD
hey OP thanks for the anti-jinx thread.
Many Thanks!
Signed,
Leafs Nation
Many Thanks!
Signed,
Leafs Nation
abo9
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- Jun 25, 2017
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A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)
How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…
hockey-graphs.com
My Model Monday: Hockey Aging Curves | Model 284
model284.com
Here's two different analysis on the subject of the age curve. The first one approaches it using WAR, the second using points per game.
Thousands of data points - obviously concentrated around the mid-20's for obvious reasons.
But, the age curve is defined by the 3 star players who had big injuries, and Matthews is a parangon of health and durability and will likely have a season higher than 60 goals and 106 points.
Martin Skoula
Registered User
- Oct 18, 2017
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A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)
How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…
My Model Monday: Hockey Aging Curves | Model 284
Here's two different analysis on the subject of the age curve. The first one approaches it using WAR, the second using points per game.
Thousands of data points - obviously concentrated around the mid-20's for obvious reasons.
But, the age curve is defined by the 3 star players who had big injuries, and Matthews is a parangon of health and durability and will likely have a season higher than 60 goals and 106 points.
Yes this chart is a slam dunk proof that every player will peak at 22, plateau through 25-28, and then drop off.
You understand that an aggregate curve with thousands of data points is not the actual expectation for how any individual career in that sample goes right? The average person has a little under one breast and one testicle but I haven't seen many of those around recently.
Something has to actually happen for their games to fall off like league scoring dropping, injury, or a coaching change that neuters their offense a la Ovi with Hunter. On aggregate it'll look like a smooth curve down because for every top scorer that has a sudden drop in scoring for the above reasons, there's 5 others that don't have a major setback and maintain their peak production +/- 10%.
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Yea, that' ll break the slump.
Hey, Austin can go on a heater or extend his current slump......as long as he keeps his pants on in public ..... it's all good !
He's led the league in 5v5 goals in 4 of his 6 seasons, and the seasons he didn't he was injured. But, yeah, one of the worst ES goal scorers in the league off a 17 game sample. Even factoring in these 17 games, from the start of the 2020/21 season he has 11 more ES goals than 2nd in 10 less games, and 20 more than 3rd with 10 less games.
PromisedLand
I need more FOOD
hey at least Auston's club doesn't draft disgusting people into the franchise or force him to learn "french:
abo9
Registered User
- Jun 25, 2017
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Yes this chart is a slam dunk proof that every player will peak at 22, plateau through 25-28, and then drop off.
You understand that an aggregate curve with thousands of data points is not the actual expectation for how any individual career in that sample goes right? The average person has a little under one breast and one testicle but I haven't seen many of those around recently.
Something has to actually happen for their games to fall off like league scoring dropping, injury, or a coaching change that neuters their offense a la Ovi with Hunter. On aggregate it'll look like a smooth curve down because for every top scorer that has a sudden drop in scoring for the above reasons, there's 5 others that don't have a major setback and maintain their peak production +/- 10%.
Yep.
Which is why I don't understand why it's egregious to suggest that Matthews has peaked already.
Especially after he put up insane numbers last year, and winning the Hart/Rocket?
MCR74
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Ya, that’s what the leafs need. More coddling.
Everyone on the team knows what these guys make. They are professionals, and if they get upset they’re not being referred to as elite, well… be better.
MCR74
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Martin Skoula
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- Oct 18, 2017
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It's not insane, maybe he did have his peak GPG season but the "drop" would be to the mid-high 50s and 100+ points, not to 40-50 with 80 points like posted in here. This would hold through either his early 30s or first major injury/league scoring shift, whichever comes first.
Again the point is that people look at the aging curve and act like if you hit 50/100 at 23 you're going to score 45/95, 40/90 at 24/25 and settle in as a 35/85 player through rest of your 20s. The reality is that you're going to score 52/106, 42/98, 49/95 and then get injured and drop down to a 30/80 player when you come back. Actual careers aren't as smooth as the graph and the drop from peak is usually much more sudden and has a clear cause and effect.
I genuinely can't think of a player who had a a smooth decay from his 23-25 peak like that graph does, players don't just slowly get marginally worse at that age without outside factors influencing it.
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The Panther
Registered User
Nice…your losing sleep over AM34 huh!
He has won back to back ROCKETS. Hart, Ted Lindsay, Calder…. Yeah.
How many Rockets has McDavid win again?
DingerMcSlapshot
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Rob Brown
Way She Goes
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First is worst, haven't you heard?
You seem to live a sad life.
Was he on the team when the Habs eliminated Matthews and the leafs?
No, although his "club" has a well know record of employing much worse at Maple Leaf Gardens .hey at least Auston's club doesn't draft disgusting people into the franchise or force him to learn "french:
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Troll threads like these are made purely to bait serious responses. Don't feed the trolls as they say...
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