Auston Matthews has more goals and a higher gpg than Ovechkin age for age. And the gap is about to grow. Can he also make a run at 894?

[BallardEra]

As already stated it will come down to staying healthy and scoring well into his late 30s for Matthews.

Goals since Matthews entered the league in 2016-17:

1. Matthews - 351
2. Ovechkin - 313
3. Draisaitl - 313
4. Pastrnak - 312
5. McDavid - 308

Those are age 31-38 seasons for Ovechkin.

Old Yeller hanging with the young bucks.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I often use the expression "falls off a cliff" in play. I like Stamkos a lot as a player - but to me his play completely fell off a cliff post injury vs where it was before, for goals. He's had a great career with great seasons since, but for goal-scoring it's a huge gap before and after injury.

Could this happen to Matthews? Sure - anyone can get career ending/altering injury, causing their play to drop off a cliff. But in my opinion - it's extremely unlikely as that rarely happens.

Ok we can’t just call every player that was ever injured ruined by injury when they have like a decade of healthy seasons and good production after. Stamkos just didn’t age as well as Ovechkin. He otherwise aged fine. It’s Ovechkin who is the outlier. Not Stamkos.

 

[rmartin65]

Ok we can’t just call every player that was ever injured ruined by injury when they have like a decade of healthy seasons and good production after. Stamkos just didn’t age as well as Ovechkin. He otherwise aged fine. It’s Ovechkin who is the outlier. Not Stamkos.

If you can’t see the difference in his game before/after that injury, I don’t know what to tell you.

The way he has adapted is a real testament to his intelligence as a hockey player, IMO.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If you can’t see the difference in his game before/after that injury, I don’t know what to tell you.

The way he has adapted is a real testament to his intelligence as a hockey player, IMO.

Elaborate.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Stamkos is barely recognizable one side of the injury to the other. It's almost like Thornton after Lindros treated him an unlimited knuckle buffet early in his career. Stamkos lost all aggression to his game. Most of the tendencies that made him interesting in his prime were gone. After that he became a distance scorer.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I suspect a high likelihood that Matthews will be “ruined” by injuries as well if we are ok applying such a drastically broad standard such that Stamkos falls under it.

 

[wetcoast]

I suspect a high likelihood that Matthews will be “ruined” by injuries as well if we are ok applying such a drastically broad standard such that Stamkos falls under it.

Man 2 people pointed out what a different type of player Stamkos was after the injury here are his stats in the 4 years before the injury and he was the best goal corer in the league those 4 years.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

He was also leading the NHL in goals when he broke his tibia.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

This sums up his play before and after quite nicely.

Stamkos is barely recognizable one side of the injury to the other. It's almost like Thornton after Lindros treated him an unlimited knuckle buffet early in his career. Stamkos lost all aggression to his game. Most of the tendencies that made him interesting in his prime were gone. After that he became a distance scorer.

This is also a good writeup of his career here.

Big Read: How Steven Stamkos has become the NHL’s top playmaker

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[WarriorofTime]

Man 2 people pointed out what a different type of player Stamkos was after the injury

Oh 2 people well nevermind. I’m sure normal aging had nothing to do with it.

 

[wetcoast]

Oh 2 people well nevermind. I’m sure normal aging had nothing to do with it.

He was 23 years old when he broke his Tibula.

 

[WarriorofTime]

He was 23 years old when he broke his Tibula.

Miraculous recovery I suppose.

 

[wetcoast]

Miraculous recovery I suppose.

I'm not even sure what you are saying here.

You mentioned something about Stamkos aging normally and discounting his injuries and there is a lot pointing to the changes from those injuries and yet you are still pushing back.

Anyways it's a moot point as this thread is abut Matthews not Stamkos and at the same age they are trending pretty even and it will be interesting to watch going forward.

Ovi had 339 goals after his age 26 season and Matthews currently has 351 and is still adding.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I'm not even sure what you are saying here.

You mentioned something about Stamkos aging normally and discounting his injuries and there is a lot pointing to the changes from those injuries and yet you are still pushing back.

Anyways it's a moot point as this thread is abut Matthews not Stamkos and at the same age they are trending pretty even and it will be interesting to watch going forward.

Ovi had 339 goals after his age 26 season and Matthews currently has 351 and is still adding.

Yes and if he doesn’t age as well as Ovechkin, I’ll be interested in whatever excuses people come up with to downplay Ovechkin.

 

[wetcoast]

Yes and if he doesn’t age as well as Ovechkin, I’ll be interested in whatever excuses people come up with to downplay Ovechkin.

Let's go back and look at what was posted.

Someone mentioned that Stamkos was a different type of player after his injury and how it affected his goal scoring then you went on to dismiss or downplay that injury.

Others have pointed out about his play and I linked an article and you are still saying that he aged even when it was pointed out that the injury was when he was aged 23.

It's obvious that you have made up your made about something not every relevant to this thread as it's about Matthews so let's leave the Stamkos thing behind shall we.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Let's go back and look at what was posted.

Someone mentioned that Stamkos was a different type of player after his injury and how it affected his goal scoring then you went on to dismiss or downplay that injury.

Others have pointed out about his play and I linked an article and you are still saying that he aged even when it was pointed out that the injury was when he was aged 23.

It's obvious that you have made up your made about something not every relevant to this thread as it's about Matthews so let's leave the Stamkos thing behind shall we.

No? I just noted that we will see if Matthews ages more like Ovechkin or Stamkos and then people tried to say Stamkos got ruined by injuries and unless Matthews is also ruined by injuries he should age more like Ovechkin.

 

[wetcoast]

No? I just noted that we will see if Matthews ages more like Ovechkin or Stamkos and then people tried to say Stamkos got ruined by injuries and unless Matthews is also ruined by injuries he should age more like Ovechkin.

No one is saying that Stamkos got ruined by injuries but his playing style changes slightly.

Players also age differently and focus on different things but if Matthews stays healthy and decides to concentrate on goal scoring and is given a free run at it who knows how this ends up.

Lots of things at play here.

 

[WarriorofTime]

decides to concentrate on goal scoring and is given a free run at it

This is the kind of passive aggressive language used to discredit Ovechkin I’m talking about…

 

[wetcoast]

This is the kind of passive aggressive language used to discredit Ovechkin I’m talking about…

I'm not being passive aggressive here the statistical facts back that up.

 

[BallardEra]

How well can we expect a guy who has had shoulder and wrist issues to age as a goal scorer versus a guy whose durability and longevity has entered "freak" status?

Ovechkin scored goal #800 in game 1305.

That was a career average goals per game pace of .0613 which translates to 50.27 goals over an 82 game span.

That consistency and health will be tough to match for a lot of players in the future.

 

[bobholly39]

Ovechkin scored goal #800 in game 1305.

That was a career average goals per game pace of .0613 which translates to 50.27 goals over an 82 game span.

That consistency and health will be tough to match for a lot of players in the future.

Matthews today - 562 games, 368 goals
Ovechkin - by game 562, he had 341 goals

Ovechkin was 27 years old and ~5 months when he hit game 562.
Matthew is currently 27 years old and ~2 weeks. So - he hit game 562 when he was 26 yrs old and ~80-9 months, so almost a year prior.


Matthews doesn't need to age as well as Ovechkin did. He just needs to age well. I think he has a great chance to surpass 800 career goals.

 

[Crosby2010]

Matthews today - 562 games, 368 goals
Ovechkin - by game 562, he had 341 goals

Ovechkin was 27 years old and ~5 months when he hit game 562.
Matthew is currently 27 years old and ~2 weeks. So - he hit game 562 when he was 26 yrs old and ~80-9 months, so almost a year prior.


Matthews doesn't need to age as well as Ovechkin did. He just needs to age well. I think he has a great chance to surpass 800 career goals.

The thing is though, who would have thought Ovechkin would continue to rack up 50 goal seasons in his 30s? Historically speaking this is not common. The greatest goal scorers of all-time all dropped in the goal scoring department in their 30s. Ovechkin didn't. That and health is the difference between Ovechkin and Matthews. And also leading the NHL in goals 9 times. Matthews won't do this. He's a little over halfway to 700. Let's see him do that before we assume he overtakes 894, or even 800. He has scored 368 goals in 8 seasons. Will he score that many over his next 8 seasons? He has averaged 46 goals per season. Will he do this when he is in his 30s? Might be hard, and that is not accounting for injuries. And even at around 700 he is still miles away. These records are astronomical. The fact that we are even discussing Ovechkin possibly breaking Gretzky's record is a testament to the longevity and health of him.

 

[MadLuke]

Matthews need 432 goals

Some of the greatest post 26 years old season goalscorer

Sakic..: 340
Gretzky: 351
Iginla.: 375
Shanaha: 412
Jagr...: 421
Messier: 429
-800...: 432
Dionne.: 463
Selanne: 470
B.Hull.: 509
Ovechki: 514
Espo...: 559

We do not know how nhl scoring will look like or future mRNA-AI sport medical science and anti-aging therapy in general.

It is certainly possible for it to happen, but we are talking about more than good aging, that legendary "old" goal scorer level.

Can Matthews score 20 more goals after 26 than Shanahan did when he had had to play in all those dpe years are on those post 26 years season and a physical game, certainly possible for what could be one of the very best goal scorer ever, in a league that could stay high scoring for all of his career.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

When people started talking about this seriously for Ovechkin I remember there was a thread on the main board around the time he hit 500, 600 etc. (big Phil thread?)

I think the the % of him doing it back then was quite low..

If Matthews scores 50 goals for the next ten seasons he still will be behind, it is just so tough

 

[bobholly39]

The thing is though, who would have thought Ovechkin would continue to rack up 50 goal seasons in his 30s? Historically speaking this is not common. The greatest goal scorers of all-time all dropped in the goal scoring department in their 30s. Ovechkin didn't. That and health is the difference between Ovechkin and Matthews. And also leading the NHL in goals 9 times. Matthews won't do this. He's a little over halfway to 700. Let's see him do that before we assume he overtakes 894, or even 800. He has scored 368 goals in 8 seasons. Will he score that many over his next 8 seasons? He has averaged 46 goals per season. Will he do this when he is in his 30s? Might be hard, and that is not accounting for injuries. And even at around 700 he is still miles away. These records are astronomical. The fact that we are even discussing Ovechkin possibly breaking Gretzky's record is a testament to the longevity and health of him.

That's the thing though - at his current pace Matthews won't need to continue racking up 50 goal seasons in his 30s. Here's a couple of ways it could play out if he plays till age 37 (which is young, he easily could play till ~40+ and score even more).

Age 27 - 65 goals
28 - 60
29 - 55
30 - 50
31 - 50
32 - 45
33 - 45
34 - 40
35 - 35
36 - 35
37 - 35

If he does this....that's 883 goals. That's with him not scoring above 40 goals once past age 33. Ovechkin did that 3x in a lower scoring league, for comparison.

More conservative, 5 less goals a year:

age 27 - 60 goals
55
50
45
45
40
40
35
30
30
30

Thats puts him at 828 career goals. And that's without him surpassing 40 goals a single time past age 31. Ovechkin surpassed 40 goals 5 times past age 31 in a lower scoring league (assuming scoring levels stay up) - so that's incredibly conservative.

As poster above point out - Brett Hull scores 509 goals past age 26 season, and that includes all of the dead puck era years. Matthews only needs 432 goals to reach 800.

Obviously - Matthews will need consistency, good health and to age well. If he has major injuries, or if he falls off a cliff in play, then it's not going to happen. But my point is - he just needs to age well - he doesn't need to age at an all-time great level (like Ovechkin did). He's in a great position to hit 800+.

 

[Crosby2010]

That's the thing though - at his current pace Matthews won't need to continue racking up 50 goal seasons in his 30s. Here's a couple of ways it could play out if he plays till age 37 (which is young, he easily could play till ~40+ and score even more).

Age 27 - 65 goals
28 - 60
29 - 55
30 - 50
31 - 50
32 - 45
33 - 45
34 - 40
35 - 35
36 - 35
37 - 35

If he does this....that's 883 goals. That's with him not scoring above 40 goals once past age 33. Ovechkin did that 3x in a lower scoring league, for comparison.

More conservative, 5 less goals a year:

age 27 - 60 goals
55
50
45
45
40
40
35
30
30
30

Thats puts him at 828 career goals. And that's without him surpassing 40 goals a single time past age 31. Ovechkin surpassed 40 goals 5 times past age 31 in a lower scoring league (assuming scoring levels stay up) - so that's incredibly conservative.

As poster above point out - Brett Hull scores 509 goals past age 26 season, and that includes all of the dead puck era years. Matthews only needs 432 goals to reach 800.

Obviously - Matthews will need consistency, good health and to age well. If he has major injuries, or if he falls off a cliff in play, then it's not going to happen. But my point is - he just needs to age well - he doesn't need to age at an all-time great level (like Ovechkin did). He's in a great position to hit 800+.

Anything can happen of course, but he will need excellent health to do this as well. Gretzky more or less had full seasons up until 1993. Ovechkin was rocked with 2020 and 2021 shortened seasons, as well as 2013. Gretzky as well had 1995 as a shortened year, but he wouldn't have added much. Gretzky also had the back injury from Suter which affected his mobility (he scored 41 in 1991 still). Things happen. And to be fair, Matthews has missed 10-15 games a season often. Ovechkin barely missed time and is in his 20th season and still hasn't reached it yet (894). I don't know why people think the 69 goals are just assumed again. He had 40 in 2023. What if 69 is his peak? What if he struggles to get to 50 again? We won't know. One player in NHL history has thrived as a goal scorer in his 30s more than anyone else and that was Ovechkin. Every other player in NHL history has sagged once they hit that age. I don't see it health-wise or motivation wise.

 

[MadLuke]

I don't know why people think the 69 goals are just assumed again. He had 40 in 2023. What if 69 is his peak?

Does anyone assume a 69 goals season to ever happen again and not a >50% chance to have been a peak ?Calder winner having a peak season before turning 27 is not special at all (so is 18.7% of a big volume year being a peak shot percentage).

Even the people talking about reaching 862 goals you quote does not put a 69+ goals season in the future when doing the napkin math.