Auston Matthews has more goals and a higher gpg than Ovechkin age for age. And the gap is about to grow. Can he also make a run at 894?

[bobholly39]

Here is Ovechkins scoring finishes after age 26.
1
1
1
1
13
1
1
1
13
4
9

I don't think Matthews will match this but with the way things are looking now I think he has a shot at matching the goal totals. I think league scoring will dry up again though because people are starting to miss the big hits already, but the question is how many more high scoring seasons we get?

That's 11 years. Let's run a few scenarios with those goal-scoring finishes with a couple of assumptions:

1. Let's assume Matthews scores 21 more goals this season for 61 on the year, and an even 360 career goals by end of season.

2. Let's assume scoring levels in the next 11 years is consistent with the scoring averages of 21-22 and 22-23, so past 2 full seasons (meaning, #1 on average ends up with 62 goals, #5 on average with 49 goals, #10 on average with 42 goals,, #20 on average 38 goals, etc).

Scenario 1:

If Matthews matches Ovechkin finishes next 11 years - that gives him + 609 goals. Add that to 360, he'd be at 969 career goals after age 37.

Scenario 2:

If Matthews finishes 5 ranks behind Ovechkin every year for next 11 years - that gives him + 489 goals. Add that to 360, he'd be at 849 career goals after age 37.

Scenario 3:

If Matthews finishes 10 ranks behind Ovechkin every year for next 11 years - that gives him + 449 goals. Add that to 360, he'd be at 809 career goals after age 37.

Scenario 4:

If Matthews finishes 15 ranks behind Ovechkin every year for next 11 years - that gives him + 428 goals. Add that to 360, he'd be at 788 career goals after age 37.

So for the last one - just to clarify - it would imply Matthews finishes for goal-scoring every season for the next 11 years would be:

Goal Scoring Rank in-season	Goal Total
16	40
16	40
16	40
16	40
28	36
16	40
16	40
16	40
28	36
19	39
24	37

Does anyone think this is in the least bit likely for goal-scoring finishes for Matthews over the next 11 years, highest finish of 16th place? And even that gets him 12 goals shy of 800 goals at age 37.

People are underestimating the impact on raw goal totals the higher scoring environment can have on Matthews these next few years. Even if scoring tapers down eventually, I think that's still a few years away and enough for Matthews to accumulate a lot more raw goals.

I don't think anyone here believes Scenario #1 is likely. It's not. Matthews won't win 7 more rockets after age 26. But is scenario #2 likely? If you think even that one is a stretch, surely scenarios 3 or 4 seem reasonable? In any of those scenarios, he will top 800 career goals.

 

[VanIslander]

Getzky doesn't give a f f about his career goals, as he has always looked to pass first and always worked on his slapper.

I saw Gretz his whole career yet i don't think of him as a top goal scorer because he passes so much more, and amazingingly, and when he shoots, much of the time the goalie is as surprised as i am.

I see how Gretzky & Hasek owned the ice as they did. I can still cry thinking of Gretz not given a 5-shooter chance in the 1998 Olympics. Burn in the lounge of hell that degraced ex-Canucks coach who ought never be mentioned. Gretz hung his head 'cuz he knew he was denied a chance to show what he could do, had done, some young mf coach suddenly thought Lindros would be better on a clutch breakaway? GTFOOH.

We were denied the most epic one on one monent ever.

 

[AssaultPK]

Matthews has a few things going for him.

Scoring is up in the NHL. Especially compared to say 10 years ago. If the league, like the rest of the NA sports, wants to continue to drive fan participation both in game and with sports betting, scoring will remain artificially inflated.

He's a more accurate shot than Ovechkin, who is and will always be marked as a volume scorer, especially once I finish my shot study.

Staying healthy in a league that has absolutely become less physically abrasive bodes well for staying healthy.

How is scoring artificially inflated? More penalties being called?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

The bolded seems a very extreme under-exaggeration. "good chance of 600"?

If Matthews scores 8 more goals this season, and averages 23 goals a year till age 37, he's at 600+ career goals.

A 23 goal average in that age range would be the equivalent of what Adam Oates or Ron Francis scored at those ages. You really think there's only a "good chance" Auston Matthews can match Adam Oates's or Ron Francis's raw goal-scoring in a higher scoring era vs Oates/Francis in the DPE?

It all comes down to health. If we assume that Matthews is reasonably healthy for the next decade, then yes - he should soar past 600 goals.

As of their 26th birthday, Matthews and Stamkos were virtually even in goals scored (299-297 if I've counted correctly). Stamkos already had two goal-scoring titles, and the expectation was he'd challenge Ovechkin annually. I think most of us assumed that, by this point in his career (a few days away from his 34th birthday) he'd already be at 600 goals.

Instead, Stamkos is "only" at 536, which obviously is still impressive. But he went from five 1st/2nd place finishes in the span of six seasons - to never again placing in the top five. If not for the leaguewide increase in scoring (which, obviously, none of us could have anticipated in 2015), he'd probably still be below 500 at this point.

It's all a result of him breaking his leg in 2017. He was never quite the same player after that. He lost a bit of his speed and his agility. I also think he lost just a bit of velocity from his shot, but enough to make a difference. He's more likely to pass the puck now (all four of his 50+ assist seasons came after the leg injury) - so the impact on his overall production isn't as much as it otherwise could have been, but if we're talking about goal scoring in isolation, the impact is pretty clear.

The point I'm trying to make - if Matthews is healthy and plays another decade, sure - he'll easily score 600 goals. But Stamkos is a good, recent reminder that a single injury can derail a player's career. Obviously I hope that doesn't happen to Matthews - but I said he (only) has a "good chance" because that injury risk is there, and that can derail any of these projections.

(I think I've mentioned this in another post, but as of a few years ago, my forecasting model projected Matthews to reach approximately 670 goals. I'm not going to re-run the numbers, but I'm certain he'd be projected to end up in the 700-750 goal range if I ran it again today, because he's out-performed the model over the past few years, and leaguewide scoring remains high. But the model doesn't take into account a catastrophic injury scenario).

 

[MadLuke]

We could do a similar exercise with Bure-Mogilny-Kovalchuck-Heatley of expectation at a certain age versus goal total at 37.

Healtey had 180 goals in 354 games after his 26 years old season, just had 2x50 goals in a row and because of the lock-out, relatively late start had not that much mileage in for someone that age. Barely doubled that total and out by 34, despite constantly placed in the best possible situation in the nhl to score for the rest of that career.

Mogilny 266 in 460 game played after his 26 years old season, just scored 55, retired before his 37 years old season, did not add 80% of that amount for the rest of his career.

Bure obviously, that could happen to anyone and everyone talk in term of if no terrible injuries being implied in their projection of the future which is ok, but should not then deny that good luck can be needed in a contact sport, Bure with good health and a good league scoring environment (lock-out free, high scoring for him which seem to be any league) maybe he end up knocking in that 800 goals club doors. What Kariya would have done and so on.

Kovalchuk 338 in 621 game when he finished his 26 years old season, most goal from 02-10, will not score 120 goals in the regular season after that, I doubt Matthews will go in a different league for a while but it show how varied nhl career derailment can be.

 

[oilexport]

Only the big, strong guys seem to last into their late thirties.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah, like Mark Recchi, MSL and Joe Sakic

 

[authentic]

That’s so far away that it’s early to really think about.

From what we know at this time, particularly if he wins his 3rd Rocket, I would be more comfortable pinning him as the premier goal scorer of his generation (the 2020s decade), and the current title holder in a line of 3x Rocket winning goal scoring greats:

1920s - Babe Dye
1930s - Charlie Conacher
1940s - Maurice Richard
1950s - Gordie Howe
1960s - Bobby Hull
1970s - Phil Esposito
1980s - Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux
1990s - Brett Hull, Teemu Selanne, Pavel Bure
2010s - Alex Ovechkin
2020s - Auston Matthews

I’d also view Matthews as one of the four premier centermen of his generation, along with McDavid, Mackinnon and Draisaitl. Recent generations seem to have around four centermen that define their era, though sometimes less:

- Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Yzerman
- Sakic, Forsberg, Lindros, Fedorov
- Crosby, Malkin
- McDavid, Matthews, Mackinnon, Draisaitl

The four centremen of this era seem to be the ones trading 1st and 2nd team all star selections and major awards between themselves, almost to the exclusion of all other others, creating a chasm between them and all the other centremen. I think this is where Matthews’ place in hockey lies.

But 800 goals? For me, too early to speculate. It’ll depend on when he hits, 500, 600 goals.

- Crosby, Malkin, Thornton, Datsyuk

I think bobhollys breakdown is spot on, it all depends on injuries and based on the style of game he plays I don’t see his goal scoring falling off a cliff in his 30s, even if he doesn’t age as well as Ovechkin. Infact I will predict now that as long as his health holds up he isn’t done scoring at 60+ goal paces for another few seasons, let’s just hope he doesn’t miss much time now and can build a sizeable gap over Ovechkin before 30.

Yeah, like Mark Recchi, MSL and Joe Sakic

Don’t underestimate the brute strength of Teemu Selanne.

 

[authentic]

For starters, I need to preface this by saying I am only talking about compiled raw career goal totals, and not an actual comparison of the two of them as players. Because I don't really think Matthews has a case vs. Ovechkin in a peak-vs-peak comparison. But yes, Matthews has a chance to score more goals. Obviously he does, considering he's the top goalscorer right now, and in his prime, and is currently ahead of the pace. But, higher scoring in the NHL is what has made that possible (in addition to being able to play his D+1, age 19 season). OV's had his share of Cy Young type seasons, but those were after he sharply declined as an overall player and changed his game to allow the goals totals to stay high at the expense of everything else. Matthews is having Cy Young seasons in his prime!

It's crazy how, at this exact age, they have essentially the same number of career GPs, because how they got there is completely different. Matthews has missed only 38 games due to factors outside of his control (covid-shortened seasons), and already 56 more due to injury/suspension. Ovechkin had missed 82 due to the 04-05 lockout, and just 21 for other reasons. OV only missed about 38 more games in the 12 years between then and now - it's really hard to envision Matthews becoming that durable, as he's always been suceptible to the odd minor injury.

It's going to take better than expected durability, and also, league scoring level is going to have to remain where it is, or continue to rise. It's also really difficult to get inside their heads and predict how Matthews is going to deal with aging. Some players become "better" while scoring fewer goals. Others become worse but score just as many. It has a lot to do with their mental makeup, career aspirations, coaching strategy, and the overall vision of the franchise. Will Matthews make chasing career goal totals a priority? I can't say at this time whether he's the type or not.

Connor McDavid is also just 200 days older, with only 16 fewer goals, and has demonstrated he can be a Matthews level goal scorer if he wants. The conversation may one day be whether he can do it, not Matthews.

Of course it helps that scoring has risen but have you not seen the amount of powerplay time Ovechkin had over Matthews up to this point in their careers? It’s like 3100 to 1500, more than double. Call me crazy but I think that cancels out the difference in scoring levels without even getting into the advantages of being a one way winger instead of a two-way center. Ovechkin played run and gun in his early days while Matthews helps out deep in his own zone and constantly back checks, strips pucks and blocks shots. All things considered I think you can look at the numbers as they are and it’s a pretty good indication of how they compare as goal scorers.

Now that said peak Ovechkin > Matthews, Ovechkin was just an offensive force that you could not contend with, even if he was allergic to his own zone. But I think people overestimate the difference between them, both as overall players and especially as goal scorers where I think Matthews is every bit his equal if not actually better.

 

[Staniowski]

Matthews is a beautiful goal scorer, and he should have a very good chance to get to 800 goals, and possibly 900, if he has good health.

A couple points:

1. I think Matthews is a bit better goal scorer than Ovechkin, and probably the most talented since Lemieux.

2. Several people have mentioned that Ovechkin's longevity as an elite goal scorer is unusual, but it isn't really. Almost all the greatest goal scorers have had excellent staying power, as long as they've had decent health. They've been very good goal scorers into the 2nd-half of their 30s. This is actually a hallmark of the great goal-scorers. They dont lose their ability to put the puck in the net. And there's no reason to think the injured guys - Bossy, Lemieux, Bure - would've been any different.


Matthews doesn't need to win 7 or 8 more Rockets; he just needs to continue scoring well.

He seems to still be ascending, so he'll likely put up a lot of goals in the next few years. He has a real chance to get to 600 goals by age 30. That would obviously get people talking, if it happens.

So, if he stays healthy, he's got a very good chance to go past 800. We should expect he is still a top goal-scorer 8 or 10 years from now. He's in a good situation - talented teammates, good scoring environment, and his personal attributes - great mobility, great shooter, physically strong (to shoot), great technique, can score in a variety of ways - bodes very well.

 

[MadLuke]

Of course it helps that scoring has risen but have you not seen the amount of powerplay time Ovechkin had over Matthews up to this point in their careers? It’s like 3100 to 1500, more than double. Call me crazy but I think that cancels out the difference in scoring levels without even getting into the advantages of being a one way winger instead of a two-way center.

After 527 games played Ovechkin was at 2792:43, Matthews 1546:57 (not double but not that far), it is a big difference in power play opportunities, that maybe fully balance things out for those who play a lot of powerplay.

339 goals for Matthews, 324 for Ovechkin.

Goal per games for star forward (at least 250 games played) during the respective era

Kovalchuk: .54
Stamkos..: .52
Gaborik..: .52
Crosby...: .52
Iginla...: .49
Heatley..: .49
Malkin...: .47
Avg: .507, Ovechkin .61 (+20.3% the average)

During Matthews time
Pastrnak.: .57
Ovechkin.: .55
McDavid..: .54
Draisaitl: .54
Kucherov.: .50
MacKinnon: .47
Robertson: .47
Avg: .52, Matthews .64 (+23% the average)

For top scorer, it did seem quite similar (too close to call kind of things) yes, at least per game when you play with things and have less than 5% difference.. tend to call it near tie, regarding goal scored after that many game between the 2 (if we do not look at the playoff).

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Going to be tough.

He’s already losing his hair over trying to break it.

 

[bobholly39]

It all comes down to health. If we assume that Matthews is reasonably healthy for the next decade, then yes - he should soar past 600 goals.

As of their 26th birthday, Matthews and Stamkos were virtually even in goals scored (299-297 if I've counted correctly). Stamkos already had two goal-scoring titles, and the expectation was he'd challenge Ovechkin annually. I think most of us assumed that, by this point in his career (a few days away from his 34th birthday) he'd already be at 600 goals.

Instead, Stamkos is "only" at 536, which obviously is still impressive. But he went from five 1st/2nd place finishes in the span of six seasons - to never again placing in the top five. If not for the leaguewide increase in scoring (which, obviously, none of us could have anticipated in 2015), he'd probably still be below 500 at this point.

It's all a result of him breaking his leg in 2017. He was never quite the same player after that. He lost a bit of his speed and his agility. I also think he lost just a bit of velocity from his shot, but enough to make a difference. He's more likely to pass the puck now (all four of his 50+ assist seasons came after the leg injury) - so the impact on his overall production isn't as much as it otherwise could have been, but if we're talking about goal scoring in isolation, the impact is pretty clear.

The point I'm trying to make - if Matthews is healthy and plays another decade, sure - he'll easily score 600 goals. But Stamkos is a good, recent reminder that a single injury can derail a player's career. Obviously I hope that doesn't happen to Matthews - but I said he (only) has a "good chance" because that injury risk is there, and that can derail any of these projections.

(I think I've mentioned this in another post, but as of a few years ago, my forecasting model projected Matthews to reach approximately 670 goals. I'm not going to re-run the numbers, but I'm certain he'd be projected to end up in the 700-750 goal range if I ran it again today, because he's out-performed the model over the past few years, and leaguewide scoring remains high. But the model doesn't take into account a catastrophic injury scenario).

I did say in the OP "Career ending/altering injuries is also possible of course - but barring that, assuming he ages normally for a player of his stature..."

I definitely consider Stamkos' injury to be a career altering injury. Of course it's possible this could happen for Matthews - but those are quite uncommon.

I've made a few posts so far in this thread with some potential career projections for Matthews ageing, and are all quite conservative in my opinion. Here's a non-conservative estimate for him ageing pretty good, but that isn't out of the question:

- 71 goals this season (his current pace) ends season at 370 career goals (31 ahead of Ovi)
- 2x 60 seasons to follow. ends age 28 season at 490 career goals (68 ahead of Ovi)
- 3x 50 goal seasons to follow, ends age 31 season at 640 goals (82 ahead of Ovi)
- 3x 40 goal seasons to follow, ends age 34 season at 760 goals. (54 ahead of Ovi)

I don't even need to continue past age 34. He'd be in the running for ~900+ career goals at that point, let alone 800+. True that I don't really account for any big injuries - but he could miss a whole season, or two half full seasons (ie - remove ~50 goals) and he'd still be ahead of Ovechkin age for age.

A major, career altering injury is possible, but those are quite uncommon. Assuming he ages normally, with maybe a few minor injuries here and there but nothing overtly career altering - I think he has an extremely high chance of 800+ career goals. And more isn't out of the question

 

[bobholly39]

We could do a similar exercise with Bure-Mogilny-Kovalchuck-Heatley of expectation at a certain age versus goal total at 37.

Healtey had 180 goals in 354 games after his 26 years old season, just had 2x50 goals in a row and because of the lock-out, relatively late start had not that much mileage in for someone that age. Barely doubled that total and out by 34, despite constantly placed in the best possible situation in the nhl to score for the rest of that career.

Mogilny 266 in 460 game played after his 26 years old season, just scored 55, retired before his 37 years old season, did not add 80% of that amount for the rest of his career.

Bure obviously, that could happen to anyone and everyone talk in term of if no terrible injuries being implied in their projection of the future which is ok, but should not then deny that good luck can be needed in a contact sport, Bure with good health and a good league scoring environment (lock-out free, high scoring for him which seem to be any league) maybe he end up knocking in that 800 goals club doors. What Kariya would have done and so on.

Kovalchuk 338 in 621 game when he finished his 26 years old season, most goal from 02-10, will not score 120 goals in the regular season after that, I doubt Matthews will go in a different league for a while but it show how varied nhl career derailment can be.

The reason why I like Matthews' staying power more than any of those guys, is because #1 overall picks who start out as strong as he did in year 1, and keep on improving year over year consistently tend to do very, very well career/ageing wise.

It's a career trajectory in the mold of an Ovechkin, Crosby or McDavid for recent examples. None of the players in bold are really similar.

He had a great rookie year in his D+1 year (none of the players in bold played NHL in D+1, except for Kovalchuk, who Matthews did better then), and then improved both his Goals per Game and Points per Game rate every single season for 6 years straight. To me - that bodes incredibly well for him maintaining a very consistent career, without any huge unexpected declines.

Even before Matthews hit 50 goals in 50 games and 60 goals on the year, I was already seeing him as someone who would likely age very, very well. Bure/Mogilny were great but way less consistent.

 

[Midnight Judges]

2. Several people have mentioned that Ovechkin's longevity as an elite goal scorer is unusual, but it isn't really. Almost all the greatest goal scorers have had excellent staying power, as long as they've had decent health. They've been very good goal scorers into the 2nd-half of their 30s. This is actually a hallmark of the great goal-scorers. They dont lose their ability to put the puck in the net. And there's no reason to think the injured guys - Bossy, Lemieux, Bure - would've been any different.

Lemieux had 42 goals in 127 games after age 35 - a .33 GPG. Ovechkin is .52 in 194 games played.

Gretzky's GPG after age 32 was .29. Ovechkin's is .58.

 

[MadLuke]

Almost all the greatest goal scorers have had excellent staying power, as long as they've had decent health.

Yes Brett-Bobby Hull/Howe/Selanne/Richard/Lemieux/Esposito were still good at scoring when old and could even lead the league on short stretch, but they did not finish top 5 in goals for a complete season often past 33.

The ability to play the game needed is a challenge by itself. Being still a good goal scorer in old age do happen, the best over long stretch of time at a old age, did it ever happen even just once before Ovechkin ?

 

[The Panther]

Several people have mentioned that Ovechkin's longevity as an elite goal scorer is unusual, but it isn't really. Almost all the greatest goal scorers have had excellent staying power, as long as they've had decent health. They've been very good goal scorers into the 2nd-half of their 30s.

This is not true, in my opinion. Certainly not if the standard is "elite goal scorer".

He seems to still be ascending, so he'll likely put up a lot of goals in the next few years. He has a real chance to get to 600 goals by age 30.

He's looking good, but the key term is "so far". How many elite goal scorers have begun to decline in volume of goals from around age 27-28? I would guess 50% or more.

So, if he stays healthy, he's got a very good chance to go past 800. We should expect he is still a top goal-scorer 8 or 10 years from now.

He's got a chance? Yes. "We should expect" he's still a top goal scorer 8 or 10 years from now? No. The consistent trends of NHL history suggest the opposite -- that we should not expect that.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Lemieux had 42 goals in 127 games after age 35 - a .33 GPG. Ovechkin is .52 in 194 games played.

Gretzky's GPG after age 32 was .29. Ovechkin's is .58.

BTW Brett Hull was .40 after age 32 (despite several of those years being the high scoring environment). He was able to sustain that pace through his later years.

 

[seventieslord]

between 1996-97 and 2003-04, which years were a "high scoring environment"?

 

[MadLuke]

between 1996-97 and 2003-04, which years were a "high scoring environment"?

I did re-read 2-3 time and just assumed I did not follow the conversation/understood, non of the named played there 32 years+ in a particularly high scoring outside Ovechkin (which are maybe more post 06 historically normal than high scoring).

Brett Hull .42 between 97 and 04 is the exact same than Shanahan....

Post 30 years old season Hull to Ovechkin current 38 yearks (96-03)....

Hull was 11th in goals, 12th in goals per game among 150th game or more players, one of the great aging goal scorer.
Ovechkin is 5th in goals and third in goal per games, could go down to 7th or so by the end of the year.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Brett Hull 1996-97 through 2002-03 (32-38): 231 goals, .44 GPG, 12th in Goals cumulatively
Alexander Ovechkin 2017-18 through 2023-24 (32-38): 273 goals, .58 GPG, 5th in Goals cumulatively

(MacKinnon would have to make up 32 goals between now and season end to pass Ovechkin in cumulative goals in that period, so he'll stay 5th)

 

[NotASheep]

Ovi first 7 COMPLETE years in the nhl goal scoring
52
46
65
56
50
32
38


339

vs Matthews
40
34
37
47
41
60
40


299

How many 50+ goal season has Matthews had?

 

[MadLuke]

How many 50+ goal season has Matthews had?

How many complete year did he had, are we counting 41 goals in the 56 game season of 2020-2021 a complete season failing to reach 50, that seem unfair.

This is a strange way to look at things imo, some arbitrary and binary goal scored in a season cutoff which is almost always cherry-picked to make the point (which fair enough, what would not be ),

Making a point that Matthews has more 40 goals season (6) in his first 8 seasons than Ovechkin (5) would be a quite weak way to look at things.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Like Ovechkin at his age the odds are very low.

Though that doesn't mean he won't

 

[HolyGhost]

How many complete year did he had, are we counting 41 goals in the 56 game season of 2020-2021 a complete season failing to reach 50, that seem unfair.

This is a strange way to look at things imo, some arbitrary and binary goal scored in a season cutoff which is almost always cherry-picked to make the point (which fair enough, what would not be ),

Making a point that Matthews has more 40 goals season (6) in his first 8 seasons than Ovechkin (5) would be a quite weak way to look at things.

Nothing arbitrary comparing 7 complete seasons. In ovies first 7 years how many times did he score 50 goals? How many 50goal seasons did Matthews have? I suspect you did not take mathematical studies in university. Is this season complete? Also..wasn't Alex O 8 season the strike season where he got 32 in 48 games?

7 seasons vs 7 seasons