Auston Matthews has more goals and a higher gpg than Ovechkin age for age. And the gap is about to grow. Can he also make a run at 894?

[Crosby2010]

Does anyone assume 69 goals season are assumed to ever happen again and not a >50% chance to be a peak ?Calder winner having a peak season before turning 27 is not special at all.

Even the people talking about reaching 862 goals you quote does not put a 69+ goals season in the future when doing the napkin math.

Yeah it is just way, way off right now. The math isn't in his favour. Someone mentioned in this thread that 10 straight years of 50 goals for him still puts him behind 894. I am just going to say that he does not get that high. Too much has to go right.

 

[MadLuke]

Yeah it is just way, way off right now.

Maybe, but not in the way of assuming any other 69 or more goals season in the future...

Matthews has more goals at this point and Ovechkin was in some DPE 2.0 until he was 32, got a lock-out (upcoming Matthews 27 years old season) and covids years, it is extremelly unlikely but not impossible, see what Brady-Lebron-Ronaldo/Messi did at their late age or Ovechkin, who knows.

38 goals a year average until he his 40 and that's 900 goals, which in a way show how hard it is, but not out of the realm of possible, that less than Phil Esposito goal scoring past that age.

 

[Crosby2010]

Maybe, but not in the way of assuming any other 69 or more goals season in the future...

Matthews has more goals at this point and Ovechkin was in some DPE 2.0 until he was 32, got a lock-out (upcoming Matthews 27 years old season) and covids years, it is extremelly unlikely but not impossible, see what Brady-Lebron-Ronaldo/Messi did at their late age or Ovechkin, who knows.

Patrick Mahomes basically needs a bit more than three careers of the 6 years he has played so far if he is to ever pass Brady in passing yards. 29,000 to 89,000 at the moment. Or the passing TD record (649 to 225 at the moment). And while this season only has 4 games in the books so far, if you look at the trends starting last season Mahomes is slowing down a bit. His yardage and TDs are much lower than a couple of seasons ago, his yards per game are much lower and he's been picked off more than Tony Romo late in a playoff game this year. I guess what I am saying is that I like Mahomes better as a QB than Matthews as a hockey player and I just think he's going to be far behind Brady when all is said and done. And maybe even more than Brady. He's 29 now. I don't know, we are talking about 500 goals right now, and then some. Basically the entire career of Evgeni Malkin from a goal scoring standpoint from this point forward. I am betting with the field here.

 

[MadLuke]

passing yards.

passing in the nfl is way down right now, if that happen in the nhl obviously that close the door, the premise here is that Matthews could very well play his career in a significantly higher scoring environmment than Ovechkin did.

Obviously we can find of hot start that did not end up reaching the record (Mike Trouts had a relatively long goat after X years start and kind of failed a clifts with injuries before turning 30)

I am betting with the field here.

Sure and that would have been a very low line to do for Ovechkin reaching 850 goals or Lebron reaching 40,000 points 12 years ago and wrong, both did sound kind of impossible.

It is probably way likely that Matthews do not reach 750 than reach 894, but I would not put it in the impossible category, anti-aging tech, nhl scoring, but one of the very few that age well, make it all possible.

Would I take a line that require less than 4% chance for Matthews to do it some 27:1 + adjusted for inflation, maybe..

 

[TeeTee]

The most impressive part of Ovi's goal scoring wasn't the first 400 goals. It is the last ~450 goals that have really set him apart from the competition.

 

[Crosby2010]

Another thing to mention, these records that just keep lingering around, they happen for a reason. There is a reason they stick around, it is because they are so insanely hard to beat. Babe Ruth's 714 home runs stuck until 1974. Henry Aaron, an all-time great himself, played 23 seasons and had 13.941 plate appearances to get 755 home runs. Babe had 10628 plate appearances to get 714. Bonds is the other one above Ruth, at 762, had 12606. Mark McGwire is the all-time leader in this category partly because he was either sink or swim when it came to home runs and wasn't a great hitter overall, and Aaron Judge is ahead of Ruth on a per game basis as well. But he still has the aging factor to sink in eventually. So basically you have a guy who has been dead for 75 years and hasn't played in 90 years that is still king in this category. And it took Aaron's long career and Bonds' great career but suspected use of steroids - and more at bats to pass Ruth.

Ditto Ty Cobb. Cobb hasn't played in almost 100 years and he is still the all-time batting average leader at .366. He is 2nd all-time with 4,189 hits. Pete Rose as we know is the only one to pass him with 4,256. Rose is the all-time leader in games played, plate appearances and at bats. He had 15,890 plate appearances to Cobb's 13,103. That's just what I mean, even when these great records break they still do it on the basis of someone just playing longer and not necessarily being better. It's hard.

 

[Crosby2010]

passing in the nfl is way down right now, if that happen in the nhl obviously that close the door, the premise here is that Matthews could very well play his career in a significantly higher scoring environmment than Ovechkin did.

Obviously we can find of hot start that did not end up reaching the record (Mike Trouts had a relatively long goat after X years start and kind of failed a clifts with injuries before turning 30)


Sure and that would have been a very low line to do for Ovechkin reaching 850 goals or Lebron reaching 40,000 points 12 years ago and wrong, both did sound kind of impossible.

It is probably way likely that Matthews do not reach 750 than reach 894, but I would not put it in the impossible category, anti-aging tech, nhl scoring, but one of the very few that age well, make it all possible.

Would I take a line that require less than 4% chance for Matthews to do it some 27:1 + adjusted for inflation, maybe..

4% maybe at best, yeah, I can see that.

There is a bit of a shift in the NFL with running again. Not sure why, because scoring is down this year and the NFL won't like that, but whatever. I do agree that is affecting Mahomes' numbers a bit, but he's been rather pedestrian himself this season. He's sitting 11th in passing yards. Not very Mahomes-ish. And this isn't even getting into this assumption some fanboys had that he surpasses Brady's 7 Super Bowls or 10 SB appearances or the 35 playoff wins. Montana has 16, Mahomes has 15. That is still miles away from even being close. I think with the internet we tend to pump the tires of the current crop more than we think as if there isn't a reason these records have stood almost forever.

 

[BallardEra]

When people started talking about this seriously for Ovechkin I remember there was a thread on the main board around the time he hit 500, 600 etc. (big Phil thread?)

I think the the % of him doing it back then was quite low..

If Matthews scores 50 goals for the next ten seasons he still will be behind, it is just so tough

These are always funny to look back on:

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

forums.hfboards.com

Ovechkin is now halfway to Gretzky!

With a goal against the Stars Ovechkin now has 447 goals in the NHL. That's exactly half of what Gretzky scored. It took Ovechkin 9 and a ½ seasons, or actually 9 seasons if you count the 2012-13 lockout, to score 447. Ovechkin still has about 13 and a ½ season of hockey left so the question...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[The Panther]

38 goals a year average until he his 40 and that's 900 goals, which in a way show how hard it is, but not out of the realm of possible, that less than Phil Esposito goal scoring past that age.

True, but the problem with these kind of projections is:
-- if he gets just one semi-serious injury, now he has to score 45 goals per year until age 40 (which is virtually impossible)
-- If there's another work-stoppage / lock-out, now he has to score 50 goals per year until age 40, which is impossible
-- if there's another global pandemic that shuts the NHL down for a while, now he has to score 53 goals per year until age 40, which is impossible
-- if he has a veteran-contract dispute with the Leafs in the future and sits out, waiting to be traded, now he has to score 56 goals per year until age 40, which is completely impossible

Now, imagine if Matthews has two major injuries and if there's a lock-out...

So, yes, of course he can do it, but the odds are always very, very long, and often for reasons beyond the players'' control.

 

[MadLuke]

-- if he gets just one semi-serious injury, now he has to score 45 goals per year until age 40 (which is virtually impossible)

This add something like 90 goals to compensate for 45.

-- If there's another work-stoppage / lock-out, now he has to score 50 goals per year until age 40, which is impossible

This is adding 156 goals to compensate for a single lost second.

I mean Ovechkin did not score 56 goals a single year and had all of this happen to him.

Ovechkin if he score 41 goals the next 2 years, will have done more than what Matthews need to do scoring an average of 39.6 goals a seasons, more than what Matthews need to do and extraordinary.

 

[Staniowski]

Matthews had an injury that affected his scoring in '23, but other than that, he's scored a lot over the past four seasons.

If he continues at this recent level for another four years or so, and stays healthy, he could do it. But staying healthy is the key. If he's playing, and playing healthy, he will score a lot of goals.

The best goal scorers have generally had good staying power, if reasonably healthy.

 

[bobholly39]

These are always funny to look back on:

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

forums.hfboards.com

Ovechkin is now halfway to Gretzky!

With a goal against the Stars Ovechkin now has 447 goals in the NHL. That's exactly half of what Gretzky scored. It took Ovechkin 9 and a ½ seasons, or actually 9 seasons if you count the 2012-13 lockout, to score 447. Ovechkin still has about 13 and a ½ season of hockey left so the question...

forums.hfboards.com

Yeah.

But - in all honesty, those guys were right. No one really saw that coming. Goes to show how incredible what Ovechkin did is.

 

[BallardEra]

Yeah.

But - in all honesty, those guys were right. No one really saw that coming. Goes to show how incredible what Ovechkin did is.

I agree.

Not even his biggest fans were saying it was possible.

 

[MadLuke]

Yeah.

But - in all honesty, those guys were right.

That a strange way to spin being completely wrong...

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Matthews is having a slow start to the season and there is speculation he is playing hurt.

It might not seem like a big thing now but if it goes much longer it will all but kill his all time goal chase

 

[wetcoast]

That's the thing though - at his current pace Matthews won't need to continue racking up 50 goal seasons in his 30s. Here's a couple of ways it could play out if he plays till age 37 (which is young, he easily could play till ~40+ and score even more).

Age 27 - 65 goals
28 - 60
29 - 55
30 - 50
31 - 50
32 - 45
33 - 45
34 - 40
35 - 35
36 - 35
37 - 35

If he does this....that's 883 goals. That's with him not scoring above 40 goals once past age 33. Ovechkin did that 3x in a lower scoring league, for comparison.

More conservative, 5 less goals a year:

age 27 - 60 goals
55
50
45
45
40
40
35
30
30
30

Thats puts him at 828 career goals. And that's without him surpassing 40 goals a single time past age 31. Ovechkin surpassed 40 goals 5 times past age 31 in a lower scoring league (assuming scoring levels stay up) - so that's incredibly conservative.

As poster above point out - Brett Hull scores 509 goals past age 26 season, and that includes all of the dead puck era years. Matthews only needs 432 goals to reach 800.

Obviously - Matthews will need consistency, good health and to age well. If he has major injuries, or if he falls off a cliff in play, then it's not going to happen. But my point is - he just needs to age well - he doesn't need to age at an all-time great level (like Ovechkin did). He's in a great position to hit 800+.

Except that you just rattled of 5 straight seasons of 50+ goals.

Do you know how rare that is in all of NHL history even the high flying 80s.

Also we are talking about a player with a history problem.

 

[Peter Tosh]

Injuries and age decline are more likely

 

[Crosby2010]

I was saying this prior to his slow start, but there is just too much going against him to have him get to 800. Let alone surpass Ovechkin/Gretzky. Already having a history of nagging injuries here and there, but not major, and it adds up. I actually see McDavid with more goals than him all-time.

 

[MadLuke]

Vs the Pens he had a lot of high danger chances, and he has 15 shots those 3 games... slow start or just snake beating a bit, it is 3 games

 

[seventieslord]

In the pens game he had a lot of high danger chance and he 15 shots those 3 games... slow start or just snake beating a bit, it is 3 game

He's very streaky. wouldn't be the first time he went three games without a goal.

 

[sr edler]

Man, I watched the recent Toronto vs Pittsburgh highlights, and this guy had so many A-grade chances in tight where he just executed really amateurishly and sloppily. None of which were in his wheelhouse, so to speak. We all know this wheelhouse. It just seems to me he needs a particular setup to be at his best.

 

[KevinFinnerty]

His wrists will never hold up like Ovis.