Auston Matthews Discussion Thread

[Not My Tempo]

This year:

Matthews: EV 0.61gpg, 1.11ppg --- PP 3:11toi, 0.39gpg, 0.50ppg
McDavid: EV 0.35gpg, 1.05ppg ---- PP 5:00toi, 0.25gpg, 0.80ppg

Since Keefe became coach (66gms):

Matthews: EV 0.55gpg, 0.85ppg --- PP 3:07toi, 0.23gpg, 0.42ppg
McDavid: EV 0.36gpg, 0.84ppg ---- PP 4:17toi, 0.15gpg, 0.66ppg

Via evolving hockey:

Matthews: 3.65 P/60 at EV, 9.43 P/60 on PP

McDavid: 3.16 P/60 at EV, 9.77 P/60 on PP

 

[zeke]

Via evolving hockey:

Matthews: 3.65 P/60 at EV, 9.43 P/60 on PP

McDavid: 3.16 P/60 at EV, 9.77 P/60 on PP

Uh oh people will get very angry if you use p60 around here (even though p60 told us all along that matthews was at this level but just didn't get the same minutes and if everyone had just listened to p60 they wouldn't be so surprised now).

 

[Not My Tempo]

Uh oh people will get very angry if you use p60 around here (even though p60 told us all along that matthews was at this level but just didn't get the same minutes and if everyone had just listened to p60 they wouldn't be so surprised now).

I never understood the argument against per 60 stats. If you agree to using per game stats over raw totals, you should have no problem accepting per 60 over per game

Every stat is based around assumptions. Per game stats assume that TOI has zero impact on points scored in a game. Per 60 assumes that points are scored linearly with respect to TOI. Is Per 60’s linear assumption 100% correct? No, but it’s more correct than the alternative.

 

[hoglund]

Oilers fans are down BAD about Matthews getting his due attention. He’s not only living in their heads rent free, he’s building a new high rise condominium.

His name is everywhere in their forums

I think that it's best to stay out of other team's forums.

 

[zeke]

I never understood the argument against per 60 stats. If you agree to using per game stats over raw totals, you should have no problem accepting per 60 over per game

Every stat is based around assumptions. Per game stats assume that TOI has zero impact on points scored in a game. Per 60 assumes that points are scored linearly with respect to TOI. Is Per 60’s linear assumption 100% correct? No, but it’s more correct than the alternative.

Per 60 doesn't assume anything really.

It's the anti-p60 crowd that decided to make an assumption that more minutes = lower p60. Based on nothing.

You could argue that putting up big p60 numbers in small sample sheltered minutes doesn't mean as much, but that has nothing to do with whether p60 is "linear" or not.

And a guy like Matthews was never getting small sheltered minutes anyways.

 

[authentic]

I never understood the argument against per 60 stats. If you agree to using per game stats over raw totals, you should have no problem accepting per 60 over per game

Every stat is based around assumptions. Per game stats assume that TOI has zero impact on points scored in a game. Per 60 assumes that points are scored linearly with respect to TOI. Is Per 60’s linear assumption 100% correct? No, but it’s more correct than the alternative.

It's the same thing with adjusted points for era, they are not perfect but far better than raw point totals. Also I think one argument people convinced themselves of is that somehow Matthews wasn't capable of playing 2 minutes extra powerplay time per game because his conditioning wasn't good enough of or that if he was just better on the powerplay he would get more minutes there, both of which we know are complete nonsense.

 

[authentic]

Per 60 doesn't assume anything really.

It's the anti-p60 crowd that decided to make an assumption that more minutes = lower p60. Based on nothing.

You could argue that putting up big p60 numbers in small sample sheltered minutes doesn't mean as much, but that has nothing to do with whether p60 is "linear" or not.

And a guy like Matthews was never getting small sheltered minutes anyways.

Safe to say opposing teams took notice of the guy who scored 4 goals in his first game.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Oilers fans are down BAD about Matthews getting his due attention. He’s not only living in their heads rent free, he’s building a new high rise condominium.

His name is everywhere in their forums

Imagine how they'll feel when McDavid leaves to come home after his contract is up.

 

[Confucius]

Imagine how they'll feel when McDavid leaves to come home after his contract is up.

LOL, it would make the JT move seem like just a shrug.

 

[TopChedder]

Imagine how they'll feel when McDavid leaves to come home after his contract is up.

I can't imagine McDavid leaving the Oilers because he seems loyal and they drafted him.

But

If he did it would 10000000% be to the Leafs end of story.

 

[The Podium]

I can't imagine McDavid leaving the Oilers because he seems loyal and they drafted him.

But

If he did it would 10000000% be to the Leafs end of story.

McDavid's contract expires the season after Tavares'....

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Per 60 doesn't assume anything really.

It's the anti-p60 crowd that decided to make an assumption that more minutes = lower p60. Based on nothing.

You could argue that putting up big p60 numbers in small sample sheltered minutes doesn't mean as much, but that has nothing to do with whether p60 is "linear" or not.

And a guy like Matthews was never getting small sheltered minutes anyways.

It's because studies will show that as a player gets more ice time through their career, they'll naturally be deployed against tougher competition, of course. So it follows that on average you'll see that given a player, as they begin to receive more minutes, their scoring decreases. Yea fair enough.

But Matthews has been facing the toughest competition ever since he torched the sens for 4 goals in his first game of his NHL career.

 

[Stephen]

McDavid's contract expires the season after Tavares'....

Spending that JT money will feel so luxurious when it comes off the books.

 

[The Podium]

Spending that JT money will feel so luxurious when it comes off the books.

Marner is up at the same time and Matthews/Nylander the year prior. I'd assume a portion of that contract would have to cover some of that.

 

[Stephen]

Marner is up at the same time and Matthews/Nylander the year prior. I'd assume a portion of that contract would have to cover some of that.

The one small positive about paying Matthews and Marner so much, so early is all that money is already allocated to them. So when we have to re-sign them they will be getting proportionally smaller raises that don't require a lot of reshuffling as compared to someone like Nathan Mackinnon and Cale Makar, where Colorado will probably be looking at shedding $12 million+ bucks in a flat cap to fit those guys in. Or whatever Vancouver has to blow up to make Pettersson and Hughes work.

 

[saffronleaf]

Ever since I joined HF, these western team fans (Calgary a little less) have ruined it for me. I used to cheer for Edmonton and Winnipeg! What a weird obsession with Toronto. It's like the type of Canadians who negatively obsess over the US and never have anything good to say about the US. Similar mentality.

Ugh, that's one thing I dislike about Canada / Canadians, the obsessive need to say bad things about the US. It's our national pastime.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

McDavid's contract expires the season after Tavares'....

McDavid's first tweet after becoming a UFA.

 

[The Podium]

McDavid's first tweet after becoming a UFA.

Nicest jersey in team history

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Per 60 doesn't assume anything really.

It's the anti-p60 crowd that decided to make an assumption that more minutes = lower p60. Based on nothing.

You could argue that putting up big p60 numbers in small sample sheltered minutes doesn't mean as much, but that has nothing to do with whether p60 is "linear" or not.

And a guy like Matthews was never getting small sheltered minutes anyways.

I think we can agree that if Matthews played 60 minutes a game, his /60 stats would go WAY down due to him being dead tired for most of the game. On the other extreme, if he played just 1 minute a game his /60 stats would go down because he'd never be warmed up and loose. So, indisputably, the amount of ice time a player gets a game will affect their /60 stats.

The question then becomes, what is the precise sweet spot? It's fair to suggest that someone playing 17 minutes a game would be able to put more hustle in every shift than someone playing 23 minutes a game.

So that's what the argument has been.

Matthews has simply elevated his game this year That's it. Kudos to him. In past years (whether it was battling through injuries, motivational problems, not liking the coach, etc.), Matthews would often take shifts off. Sometimes even games.

That hasn't happened this season. He's a beast each and every shift. I sincerely hope he keeps it up.

I will agree with you that, on a small 18 game sample size so far this year, he's been McDavid tier.

 

[srnd9399]

Did everyone hear the news? Papi became a Daddy last night

 

[Mitch nylander]

The best leaf I've ever seen.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I can't imagine McDavid leaving the Oilers because he seems loyal and they drafted him.

But

If he did it would 10000000% be to the Leafs end of story.

I think McDavid will come home at the earliest opportunity. This is where he's always wanted to play.

The question is, will Matthews still be here? Imagine having both of them. They would both still be young enough to dominate the league.

 

[authentic]

I think we can agree that if Matthews played 60 minutes a game, his /60 stats would go WAY down due to him being dead tired for most of the game. On the other extreme, if he played just 1 minute a game his /60 stats would go down because he'd never be warmed up and loose. So, indisputably, the amount of ice time a player gets a game will affect their /60 stats.

The question then becomes, what is the precise sweet spot? It's fair to suggest that someone playing 17 minutes a game would be able to put more hustle in every shift than someone playing 23 minutes a game.

So that's what the argument has been.

Matthews has simply elevated his game this year That's it. Kudos to him. In past years (whether it was battling through injuries, motivational problems, not liking the coach, etc.), Matthews would often take shifts off. Sometimes even games.

That hasn't happened this season. He's a beast each and every shift. I sincerely hope he keeps it up.

I will agree with you that, on a small 18 game sample size so far this year, he's been McDavid tier.

Even despite that he still would've scored more if he got the minutes a player of his caliber usually gets.

 

[zeke]

It's because studies will show that as a player gets more ice time through their career, they'll naturally be deployed against tougher competition, of course. So it follows that on average you'll see that given a player, as they begin to receive more minutes, their scoring decreases. Yea fair enough.

But Matthews has been facing the toughest competition ever since he torched the sens for 4 goals in his first game of his NHL career.

But that's a qoc argument, not an ice time argument. Those are different things that can be measured - I have all the time in the world for an argument that p60 against weak competition doesn't mean as much. Bu



In Matthews' case, funnily enough, it was the opposite - he was already getting the elite qoc matchups. For matthews, more minutes would have meant more shifts up against easier competition, not harder.

Babcock was making other teams' lives much easier by allowing them to only ever have their best matchups against Auston, instead of having to watch him inevitably get more minutes against their weaker lined and pairings.

 

[zeke]

The one small positive about paying Matthews and Marner so much, so early is all that money is already allocated to them. So when we have to re-sign them they will be getting proportionally smaller raises that don't require a lot of reshuffling as compared to someone like Nathan Mackinnon and Cale Makar, where Colorado will probably be looking at shedding $12 million+ bucks in a flat cap to fit those guys in. Or whatever Vancouver has to blow up to make Pettersson and Hughes work.

Yep. Matthews and marner won't be getting much of a raise (in cap%) on their next deals that carry them into their mid 30s.