Auston Matthews Discussion Thread

[Stephen]

My take...

REAL goals/assists lead to REAL wins. And as we've seen the past few years, hypothetical goals/assists lead to (lol) hypothetical wins.

If our star players aren't putting up as many REAL goals/assists as their comparables, then it's for 1 of 2 reasons (or a combination of both).

1. They aren't as good as their "comparables", and Dubas overpaid them.

2. Our star players aren't being used properly, and Dubas is at fault for the management team he put together.

That's it. If our star players have REAL goals/assists that are far below their comparables, no matter how you slice it, it's Dubas fault.

This year so far, Matthews and Marner are among league leaders in REAL goals/assists... and (lo and behold) the team is actually elite now. Imagine that. Almost as though meaningless fake projected goals/assists didn't mean diddly squat.

Right now with Marner and Matthew sitting in 3rd and 4th in league scoring and the team in 1st in the NHL, it's time to just sit back and enjoy the show.

If we want to complain about a fat contract that isn't productive enough and isn't driving team success, we got a guy for that.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Right now with Marner and Matthew sitting in 3rd and 4th in league scoring and the team in 1st in the NHL, it's time to just sit back and enjoy the show.

If we want to complain about a fat contract that isn't productive enough and isn't driving team success, we got a guy for that.

I agree with you, and I did sort of say that.

The conversation kind of pivoted into talking about p/60 stats in general.

I was kind of saying that I believe in what the real stats say. And the best the team under this core has ever looked (both on the ice and in the standings) is when our stars had among the best REAL stats, not weird projected stats.

 

[CN8]

All I’ve got to say is I’m glad I came to read some of this for myself. Apart from the odd irrational comment Leaf”s fans view of Matthews is nothing like the main boards portray it to be. It saddens me as a McDavid fan that he’s gonna gain haters strictly by people pushing them to have no choice.

 

[Stephen]

All I’ve got to say is I’m glad I came to read some of this for myself. Apart from the odd irrational comment Leaf”s fans view of Matthews is nothing like the main boards portray it to be. It saddens me as a McDavid fan that he’s gonna gain haters strictly by people pushing them to have no choice.

It's fun for Toronto to see how close Matthews and Marner get to McDavid in the scoring race (and Draisaitl too, though I think I speak for the majority when I say we don't really care about him that much), so I don't think we hate McDavid at all since he's the pace car.

Seems like Matthews and Marner's success is more threatening to Edmonton though. We get it. Scoring a lot is McDavid's thing. But seems to be Matthews and Marner's thing too.

 

[Drytoast]

It's fun for Toronto to see how close Matthews and Marner get to McDavid in the scoring race (and Draisaitl too, though I think I speak for the majority when I say we don't really care about him that much), so I don't think we hate McDavid at all since he's the pace car.

Seems like Matthews and Marner's success is more threatening to Edmonton though. We get it. Scoring a lot is McDavid's thing. But seems to be Matthews and Marner's thing too.

Edmonton doesn't have very many "things"...

 

[authentic]

I agree with you, and I did sort of say that.

The conversation kind of pivoted into talking about p/60 stats in general.

I was kind of saying that I believe in what the real stats say. And the best the team under this core has ever looked (both on the ice and in the standings) is when our stars had among the best REAL stats, not weird projected stats.

Fair to say the team would've looked better than it did before with it's best players playing more.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

Marner is up at the same time and Matthews/Nylander the year prior. I'd assume a portion of that contract would have to cover some of that.

Well with covid there may not be much cap increase which could also keep their salaries down

 

[GardinerTheForward]

The Oilers post game talk is about Matthews lmao

Literally the title has him in it

There’s living rent free in someone’s head and then there’s this

Id love to make a count down to mcdavid coming home thread but i know id get instant banned lmao

 

[Superstar]

Id love to make a count down to mcdavid coming home thread but i know id get instant banned lmao

Maybe you should make it in the Oilers' board...

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Starting to think every time Matthews scores they should play Beast from the Southpaw movie.

 

[Notsince67]

It's fun for Toronto to see how close Matthews and Marner get to McDavid in the scoring race (and Draisaitl too, though I think I speak for the majority when I say we don't really care about him that much), so I don't think we hate McDavid at all since he's the pace car.

Seems like Matthews and Marner's success is more threatening to Edmonton though. We get it. Scoring a lot is McDavid's thing. But seems to be Matthews and Marner's thing too.

Matthews is unreal. Marner is a bit threatening too.
Marner is already ahead of McDavid in ev p/60. If Mcdavid had the PP time of Marner, he would be 5 points less with a 2 point lead and an extra game played.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If our star players aren't putting up as many REAL goals/assists as their comparables, then it's for 1 of 2 reasons (or a combination of both).

1. They aren't as good as their "comparables", and Dubas overpaid them.
2. Our star players aren't being used properly, and Dubas is at fault for the management team he put together.

Babcock didn't really use his players properly, but that wasn't Dubas' chosen coach, and that wasn't the main reason for the difference. The real reason is:

3. Matthews came up in an era where PP opportunities are much lower league-wide, and came up on a team that plays very little special teams time overall.

REAL goals/assists lead to REAL wins.

Both raw and rate are real. I assume you meant to say raw stats lead to real wins, but that's not necessarily true. With a lot of PP time, comes a lot of PK time. Take, for example, Ovechkin and Matthews through their first 300 GP...

Washington PP time: 7:54 per game
Washington PK time: 8:24 per game

Toronto PP time: 4:30 per game
Toronto PK time: 4:45 per game

Having a lot of special teams time can help the individual stats of the stars on the team, but they do not really help the team win, because all you're really doing by scoring is balancing out all those PP goals against that also came from all that special teams time.

Washington throughout Ovechkin's first 300 GP allowed 321 PP goals against. Ovechkin's PP goals cover 22.4% of that.
Toronto throughout Matthews' first 300 GP allowed 183 PP goals against. Matthews' PP goals cover 24.0% of that.

Matthews' lower raw goal totals actually provided a bigger benefit to his team, despite the fact that Matthews missed 35 games to Ovechkin's 3, and Matthews did this with 58% of his team's PP time, to Ovechkin's 74%. What actually matters towards helping your team win, is being efficient within special teams time. This is why we tend to look at PP% to compare the powerplays of teams, not their raw PP goals for.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And the best the team under this core has ever looked (both on the ice and in the standings) is when our stars had among the best REAL stats, not weird projected stats.

Per-60 statistics are not "weird projected stats", and Matthews and Marner are having their best per-60 season as well.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Per-60 statistics are not "weird projected stats", and Matthews and Marner are having their best per-60 season as well.

Brady Tkachuk is on pace for one of the greatest season in analytics history

 

[Dekes For Days]

Brady Tkachuk is on pace for one of the greatest season in analytics history

Lol, I'm not sure what you think the relevance of that is within this discussion. We haven't even been talking about "expected goals". For the record, Brady Tkachuk is not even remotely close to "one of the greatest seasons in analytics history". What an absurd claim. Through 20 games, he's been good at one specific supplementary stat (though the number he posted is actually wrong), and that stat (which is rarely used) basically just shows that he takes a lot of his line's shots, and he tries to play fairly close to the net. That shouldn't really be groundbreaking information.

 

[Strangle]

False.

Stats are stats. This isn’t difficult

 

[Strangle]

Rate stats are also true, and they provide a more complete and accurate picture.

They aren’t true, they are manipulated. You’re giving credit for points not scored or taking away points that were scored. This is statistical manipulation.
I’m not saying it’s worthless, just that it’s not true. It’s more prediction than actual reality

 

[JT AM da real deal]

WOW Matty much more consistent this year ... only 1 game where he floated around ... gotta love it ... he plays a full 200 foot game, he wins faceoffs, he can skate puck up ice when needed, he plays defense in his own end, he plays body on forecheck when needed, his passes are under more control and much fewer giveaways, and his offense is off da charts and what a shot OMG it is powerful and accurate too ... a total complete player this year ... I can't think of anyone else in league who is doing what he can do ... even MAC is not dominating like Matty right now ... hard to find another guy who i would put over him right now

 

[Dekes For Days]

They aren’t true, they are manipulated.

That is false. They are not manipulated at all. They are based entirely on exactly what happened in the games. Per-60 metrics are reality.

The only difference between raw totals and rate statistics is that rate statistics give additional information to paint a more accurate and complete picture about the abilities of the players in question. Raw stats are heavily skewed by opportunity.

 

[CanadasTeam]

It's fun for Toronto to see how close Matthews and Marner get to McDavid in the scoring race (and Draisaitl too, though I think I speak for the majority when I say we don't really care about him that much), so I don't think we hate McDavid at all since he's the pace car.

Seems like Matthews and Marner's success is more threatening to Edmonton though. We get it. Scoring a lot is McDavid's thing. But seems to be Matthews and Marner's thing too.

preach brother

 

[zeke]

Stats are stats. This isn’t difficult

agreed its not difficult at all.

counting stats which don't account for playing time are obviously fake and misleading.

 

[Strangle]

That is false. They are not manipulated at all. They are based entirely on exactly what happened in the games. Per-60 metrics are reality.

The only difference between raw totals and rate statistics is that rate statistics give additional information to paint a more accurate and complete picture about the abilities of the players in question. Raw stats are heavily skewed by opportunity.

When you say “player x predicts to score y points in a/b ice time” it’s a prediction. When you say “Matthew’s has scored 18 goals in 18 games”, it’s a true stat. No manipulation or prediction necessary. The player still needs to score the points, which no prediction can ever account for.

 

[Strangle]

agreed its not difficult at all.

counting stats which don't account for playing time are obviously fake and misleading.

“fake” .... except that they actually happened

 

[TML1967]

One thing that baffles me in Canada is the insistence that saying player A is good means player B is bad or overrated.

Why do I have to look at it as Matthews vs McDavid?
Both are great players. Both play very different styles.

Matthews streak to start the season is phenomenal, and if I had to say an MVP through the first 20 id go with him.
This doesn't mean by any stretch of the imagination that McDavid is bad.

The fact that so many posters feel the need to tear apart other teams stars is why this site is filled with people who read but dont contribute. Its toxic to express a strong opinion about a guy

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

My take...

REAL goals/assists lead to REAL wins. And as we've seen the past few years, hypothetical goals/assists lead to (lol) hypothetical wins.

If our star players aren't putting up as many REAL goals/assists as their comparables, then it's for 1 of 2 reasons (or a combination of both).

1. They aren't as good as their "comparables", and Dubas overpaid them.

2. Our star players aren't being used properly, and Dubas is at fault for the management team he put together.

That's it. If our star players have REAL goals/assists that are far below their comparables, no matter how you slice it, it's Dubas fault.

This year so far, Matthews and Marner are among league leaders in REAL goals/assists... and (lo and behold) the team is actually elite now. Imagine that. Almost as though meaningless fake projected goals/assists didn't mean diddly squat.

Not sure whether to laugh or cry? You do realize these "real" goals and assists are basically showing exactly what people projected given similar usage to others?

It literally boggles the mind that there are people who believe having 20 full 60 minute games of extra time on the PP is irrelevant.