Tribute Auston Matthews Discussion Thread II: Record Breaking Edition

[lovemyleafs]

Need a hatty next game if he wants 60 this season.

 

[barilko05]

how would you assess vegas and LA? if he wants to go back to the Southwest (I'm not convinced he does), those seem like more attractive destinations than the Coyotes.

I think it's the same argument. If he wins in LA, he's still overshadowed by 3 other major sports with HUGE stars who have all won recently (Rams, Lakers, Dodgers). Vegas? Their initial success is starting to wane, and I see them in for big downturn, Eichel or not. So again, money being equal (and MLSE can outspend them all, cap or not) do you trade the possibility of being the biggest fish in the biggest pond in your sport, and probably a ton more endorsement dollars, to play in a market where you may have success but no one will notice? Now, New York? That's a place I'd worry he might go to. Other than the Yankees, the Rangers are the big sports ticket there. Much more so than the Knicks, GIants, Jets, Nets, and Mets.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

I don't worry much about Matthews moving on when his current contract winds down. Despite our concerns about negatives such as overzealous fans and the media microscope i don't think it bothers him. If anything I think he thrives on it.
If anything could be considered the fly in the ointment it would be a lack of playoff success, we do need to find success soon.
Now think about all the positives that come with being the king of the Toronto Maple Leafs. They easily trump the downside unless the individual has a strong desire to lay low.

 

[Menzinger]

I think it's the same argument. If he wins in LA, he's still overshadowed by 3 other major sports with HUGE stars who have all won recently (Rams, Lakers, Dodgers). Vegas? Their initial success is starting to wane, and I see them in for big downturn, Eichel or not. So again, money being equal (and MLSE can outspend them all, cap or not) do you trade the possibility of being the biggest fish in the biggest pond in your sport, and probably a ton more endorsement dollars, to play in a market where you may have success but no one will notice? Now, New York? That's a place I'd worry he might go to. Other than the Yankees, the Rangers are the big sports ticket there. Much more so than the Knicks, GIants, Jets, Nets, and Mets.

New York is probably the only market that could offer him comparable media attention. LA/Chicago would be lesser but at least in the somewhat of a ballpark.

Matthews personality is one of the few reasons why I wouldn't be overly concerned about him leaving. There's just few US markets that would potentially be a pull for him. He's definitely not going "home" to play in a 5k college arena.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't worry much about Matthews moving on when his current contract winds down. Despite our concerns about negatives such as overzealous fans and the media microscope i don't think it bothers him. If anything I think he thrives on it.
If anything could be considered the fly in the ointment it would be a lack of playoff success, we do need to find success soon.
Now think about all the positives that come with being the king of the Toronto Maple Leafs. They easily trump the downside unless the individual has a strong desire to lay low.

Lack of playoff success seems like a pretty big deal. If it wasn't for that I wouldn't be worried at all about him leaving at all but yeah, the fact that we do always lose in the playoffs, is I think cause for concern in this regard.

New York is probably the only market that could offer him comparable media attention. LA/Chicago would be lesser but at least in the somewhat of a ballpark.

Matthews personality is one of the few reasons why I wouldn't be overly concerned about him leaving. There's just few US markets that would potentially be a pull for him. He's definitely not going "home" to play in a 5k college arena.

I also feel that he likes being in a big market and if he was to leave, that's where he will go. I don't see how that reduces concerns about him leaving though, sure there may only be a few markets that would suit him but I'm pretty sure they would all love to have him and as long as there even one place he would be happy going to that would love to have him, that's all it takes.

I don't think about it too much as it's just too sick to contemplate but I could see it happening. Another 1st round loss this spring and next and he might decide that dealing with the pressure in this cooker just isn't worth it.

 

[Stephen]

People really love to imagine Auston Matthews pulling a Kawhi Leonard on Toronto but I really don't buy the Los Angeles or Vegas megastar big market pull because those markets aren't analogous to playing for the LA Lakers in basketball or going to the LA Dodgers in MLB.

 

[Gary Nylund]

People really love to imagine Auston Matthews pulling a Kawhi Leonard on Toronto but I really don't buy the Los Angeles or Vegas megastar big market pull because those markets aren't analogous to playing for the LA Lakers in basketball or going to the LA Dodgers in MLB.

It's not really a Kawhi, Kawhi left the NBA champions, our situation's a little bit different. I think Menzinger had it about right, the most likely big city destinations are NY, Chicago and maybe LA 3rd, probably not Vegas though. If we have two more 1st round exist and he's one year away from UFA status, can you imagine what it's going to be like facing the press on a daily basis? I could see that becoming so unpleasant that even Minnesota might seem like an attfactive option at that point.

 

[Stephen]

Lack of playoff success seems like a pretty big deal. If it wasn't for that I wouldn't be worried at all about him leaving at all but yeah, the fact that we do always lose in the playoffs, is I think cause for concern in this regard.


I also feel that he likes being in a big market and if he was to leave, that's where he will go. I don't see how that reduces concerns about him leaving though, sure there may only be a few markets that would suit him but I'm pretty sure they would all love to have him and as long as there even one place he would be happy going to that would love to have him, that's all it takes.

I don't think about it too much as it's just too sick to contemplate but I could see it happening. Another 1st round loss this spring and next and he might decide that dealing with the pressure in this cooker just isn't worth it.

The difference here is the Leafs are Matthews' team, so their success and failure is all about him.

 

[Stephen]

It's not really a Kawhi, Kawhi left the NBA champions, our situation's a little bit different. I think Menzinger had it about right, the most likely big city destinations are NY, Chicago and maybe LA 3rd, probably not Vegas though. If we have two more 1st round exist and he's one year away from UFA status, can you imagine what it's going to be like facing the press on a daily basis? I could see that becoming so unpleasant that even Minnesota might seem like an attfactive option at that point.

Honestly, Chicago seems unlikely as a completely toxic organization in decline and rebuild mode for the next few years, and the Rangers will be spending big money on top of the big salaries committed to their current competitive group.

I just don't think a) a competitive team can carve out $12-15 million or whatever in cap space and absorb a contract in free agency b) a team with that kind of cap is probably a rebuilding tire fire.

 

[saffronleaf]

New York is probably the only market that could offer him comparable media attention. LA/Chicago would be lesser but at least in the somewhat of a ballpark.

Matthews personality is one of the few reasons why I wouldn't be overly concerned about him leaving. There's just few US markets that would potentially be a pull for him. He's definitely not going "home" to play in a 5k college arena.

At most I can see him do his last couple of seasons there in a Spezza type situation if the Coyotes are still in Arizona at that point and for some reason they are good.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The difference here is the Leafs are Matthews' team, so their success and failure is all about him.

Not sure that helps if we lose again in the next two 1st round matchups, dealing with the media will be a nightmare.

Honestly, Chicago seems unlikely as a completely toxic organization in decline and rebuild mode for the next few years, and the Rangers will be spending big money on top of the big salaries committed to their current competitive group.

I just don't think a) a competitive team can carve out $12-15 million or whatever in cap space and absorb a contract in free agency b) a team with that kind of cap is probably a rebuilding tire fire.

a)
If NY wants Matthews, they'll move out whoever to find the cap space, I don't see how that would be a problem.

b)
I imagine any team signing Matthews will spend to the cap but so do we so I don't see how that's an issue either.

 

[saffronleaf]

Not sure that helps if we lose again in the next two 1st round matchups, dealing with the media will be a nightmare.


a)
If NY wants Matthews, they'll move out whoever to find the cap space, I don't see how that would be a problem.

b)
I imagine any team signing Matthews will spend to the cap but so do we so I don't see how that's an issue either.

for b) yes but the leafs will have $11.634m in space to sign Matthews. all the Leafs need to do is find the excess amount, which will be like 2-3 million-ish.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Not sure that helps if we lose again in the next two 1st round matchups, dealing with the media will be a nightmare.


a)
If NY wants Matthews, they'll move out whoever to find the cap space, I don't see how that would be a problem.

b)
I imagine any team signing Matthews will spend to the cap but so do we so I don't see how that's an issue either.

How do you move out 15 mil to accommodate Matthews (+ replacements for what you moved out) without gutting the team?

 

[RunItBackAgain]

In my opinion our window is a lot longer than people think. Once Tavares’ contract is up the window for Marner and Matthews is still open for multiple years to form an entirely different team around them.

And theres about a 0.2% chance Matthews leaves us after this contract. It just isn’t happening, stop worrying.

 

[Gary Nylund]

How do you move out 15 mil to accommodate Matthews (+ replacements for what you moved out) without gutting the team?

I guess the assumption would be that when you move out 15 mil and sign Matthews for 15 mil, you're a better team for it. Or if you don't feel that way, then you shouldn't sign him. It's probably not hard to move out 15 million, get back a bunch of picks, sign Matthews and be in a pretty good spot. Kind of what people were saying about trading Marner or Nylander or whoever for futures years ago and then using the cap space to sign Panarin. The team you ice might be about the same quality as it was but now you've dramatically improved your futures cupboard.

In my opinion our window is a lot longer than people think. Once Tavares’ contract is up the window for Marner and Matthews is still open for multiple years to form an entirely different team around them.

And theres about a 0.2% chance Matthews leaves us after this contract. It just isn’t happening, stop worrying.

Sure the window should be open for years to come and there are definitely plenty of reasons for Matthews to stay. 0.2% chance seems low though, we can't know what he's thinking and it seems reasonable to think that how we fare in the playoffs this year and next factors in here and that's a pretty big wild card. You're right though in that no point worrying about it today, we got other things to think about like goaltending for example. I'm just killing some time during the Raps halftime, don't mind me. Great game BTW, the Raptors are a model franchise and what they've got going is perhaps the best "retool" I've ever seen. All their starters from their title winning season are long gone and they are still a playoff team and getting better and better as the season goes on.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

How do you move out 15 mil to accommodate Matthews (+ replacements for what you moved out) without gutting the team?

He already makes 11.6m. You dont need 15m you need 3.4.

 

[Martin Skoula]

He already makes 11.6m. You dont need 15m you need 3.4.

Yeah so we can keep the same quality of our team on his new deal, anyone else would have to move big name players and replace them with ELCs or UFA dumpster dives.

I guess the assumption would be that when you move out 15 mil and sign Matthews for 15 mil, you're a better team for it. Or if you don't feel that way, then you shouldn't sign him. It's probably not hard to move out 15 million, get back a bunch of picks, sign Matthews and be in a pretty good spot. Kind of what people were saying about trading Marner or Nylander or whoever for futures years ago and then using the cap space to sign Panarin. The team you ice might be about the same quality as it was but now you've dramatically improved your futures cupboard.

Using NYR as an example, every player they have over 5mil AAV has a full NMC on their contract. They're already using a lot of ELCs who are due to get paid more this year or the one after and they're at the cap. Not only do you have to move at minimum 5 of your next highest paid players (without taking back a penny or retaining) to fit in 15 mil, you have to replace them with ELCs or cheap deals.

Meanwhile the Leafs just have to replace Kerfoot with an ELC and we're good for his raise.

Marner for Panarin + picks keeps your team at more or less the same strength for a few years until Panarin slows down, Matthews for replacing your middle 6 and 2nd pair with 850k contracts is not the same level of trade lol.

 

[34]

Best in the business. Matthews is the best player In the nhl


Oilers fan boys and the rest of the Leaf haters on the main board are in complete panic mode over AM34. It is hilarious.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Yeah so we can keep the same quality of our team on his new deal, anyone else would have to move big name players and replace them with ELCs or UFA dumpster dives.

Muzzin (5.6) also comes off the books at the same time which should easily cover Matthews and Nylander’s raises. Also not sure if Matthews will command 15, I’d guess closer to 14 but that might be hopeful. Lots of time left

 

[ThrowDemTongs]

Best in the business. Matthews is the best player In the nhl


Oilers fan boys and the rest of the Leaf haters on the main board are in complete panic mode over AM34. It is hilarious.

Would you even say that they're seething?

 

[Apotheosis]

How do you move out 15 mil to accommodate Matthews (+ replacements for what you moved out) without gutting the team?

The basic premise is that by the time he gets that raise, the cap raises by a bit (say 2 million) which accommodates half of the 4 million difference and the other half is made by moving 1 or 2 contracts and having the other spots filled by ELC's from guys like Robertson, Knies, Niemela etc. whom we will need to be serviceable if we are to have a competitive team in the mid 2020's.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The basic premise is that by the time he gets that raise, the cap raises by a bit (say 2 million) which accommodates half of the 4 million difference and the other half is made by moving 1 or 2 contracts and having the other spots filled by ELC's from guys like Robertson, Knies, Niemela etc. whom we will need to be serviceable if we are to have a competitive team in the mid 2020's.

I was talking about other teams, we're definitely in the best position to offer him the money he wants without making the team less competitive. Everyone else will need to gut their depth.

 

[Stephen]

Yeah so we can keep the same quality of our team on his new deal, anyone else would have to move big name players and replace them with ELCs or UFA dumpster dives.



Using NYR as an example, every player they have over 5mil AAV has a full NMC on their contract. They're already using a lot of ELCs who are due to get paid more this year or the one after and they're at the cap. Not only do you have to move at minimum 5 of your next highest paid players (without taking back a penny or retaining) to fit in 15 mil, you have to replace them with ELCs or cheap deals.

Meanwhile the Leafs just have to replace Kerfoot with an ELC and we're good for his raise.

Marner for Panarin + picks keeps your team at more or less the same strength for a few years until Panarin slows down, Matthews for replacing your middle 6 and 2nd pair with 850k contracts is not the same level of trade lol.

Exactly. We already have a competitive team with Matthews on it. The relative raise he would be given by Toronto would be pretty small and he would have reasonable assurances that the team wouldn't change drastically.

Anywhere else he goes, dramatic changes would need to be made to fit him in. Or they have so little in cap commitments they could fit him in.

The team is competitive and it's the biggest platform available to any player in the league. Nothing else makes sense. There's no LA Dodgers, LA Lakers equivalent in this league.

 

[Apotheosis]

I was talking about other teams, we're definitely in the best position to offer him the money he wants without making the team less competitive. Everyone else will need to gut their depth.

My bad. I must have read your post wrong.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The basic premise is that by the time he gets that raise, the cap raises by a bit (say 2 million) which accommodates half of the 4 million difference and the other half is made by moving 1 or 2 contracts and having the other spots filled by ELC's from guys like Robertson, Knies, Niemela etc. whom we will need to be serviceable if we are to have a competitive team in the mid 2020's.

Having guys like this is extremely important which I why I cringe whenever people say trading them for rentals is logical because these guys "can't help us in the next few years".

The team is competitive and it's the biggest platform available to any player in the league. Nothing else makes sense. There's no LA Dodgers, LA Lakers equivalent in this league.

Yup. Lucky for us that this is 100% true.

Still, that doesn't mean there's no way he doesn't leave, it just means that if he does leave, it'll probably be because he wants out of here as opposed to wanting to go someplace specific. And if he does want out, there will be plenty of teams willing to go through whatever contortions are required to make room for him.