saffronleaf
Registered User
we should use his rookie campaign as the measuring stick instead. makes it less depressing.
Tribute Auston Matthews Discussion Thread II: Record Breaking Edition
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we should use his rookie campaign as the measuring stick instead. makes it less depressing.
This is exactly it. Matthews isn’t injured, it looks like he is trying to adjust his game to be able to shoot from more areas and be a bit more defensively responsible. It’s going to be an adjustment year for him because he’s trying new things. His goal totals might go down but he looks like more of a complete player.
I know a lot has been made about Matthews’ goal scoring being down this year, and it is, but he’s playing really well and it should not be glossed over that he’s actually pacing well above where he was for points than he was at the same point last year.
At January 5th last year: pacing for 51 goals and 87 point pace over 82
At January 5th this year: pacing for 41 goals and 95 point pace over 82
He started a bit slow and has 10 goals in his last 16 and that’s still without any multi goal games really to speak of. He’s too good for that to continue all season. And he seems to be a player who gets hotter generally in the second half
Nevermind everything else he’s doing away from the puck
At January 5th last year: pacing for 51 goals and 87 point pace over 82
At January 5th this year: pacing for 41 goals and 95 point pace over 82
He started a bit slow and has 10 goals in his last 16 and that’s still without any multi goal games really to speak of. He’s too good for that to continue all season. And he seems to be a player who gets hotter generally in the second half
Nevermind everything else he’s doing away from the puck
notDatsyuk
Registered User
- Jul 20, 2018
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8 years costs more than 5, but increasing the term decreases the AAV. Please explain.
It's pretty obvious when you don't cherry pick parts of two different responses discussing two different contract types.
For a post-ELC contract, increasing term increases cap hit, because the years you're adding on are the most expensive.
For a UFA contract, increasing term decreases cap hit, because the years you're adding on are the least expensive.
notDatsyuk
Registered User
- Jul 20, 2018
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You're the last person who should be talking about cherry picking parts of conversations.
I asked for clarity of what seemed to be a contradiction. Thank you for clarifying.
I don't "cherry pick parts of conversations", and it seems you could have gotten that "clarity" by just noting the context ("UFA contract" specified multiple times) and... finishing the sentence you cut in half ("because the years you're adding on are worth less than the years you're adding onto."), but you're welcome.
Mess
Global Moderator
He seems determined to misrepresent how bad the Matthews' contract is as everyone knows the deal should have been 8 years in length like McDavid using his 8 year @ $12.5 mil AAV as the ceiling and comparable.
8 years @ $11.634 mil AAV = C.H. % 14.64 & 5 years @ $11.634 mil AAV = C.H. % 14.64 [It's the same C.H.% ]
AAV = total contract $ / years & then C.H.% = AAV / Total Cap Ceiling amount.
His AAV over 8 years should have been at $11.634 mil AAV (to buy all 4 years of unrestricted years which are the expensive years). Matthews giving up only 1 year of UFA status to get top AAV and CH% was ridiculous.
If you look at the top C.H.% of the top players look at the length of Matthews 4th highest C.H% (and Marner 12th) compared to ALL the other players but on shorter terms.
HIGHEST CAP HIT %
Both Matthews and Marner should have been 8 years in length to get the C.H.% in the top 12 in the league, They protected their costly UFA and still got top $$
HIGHEST AAV
The anomaly in both cases is the short terms of the Leafs players compared to the other players.
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The only one "misrepresenting" Matthews' contract here is you. 5 years is the most common post-ELC contract term for players of that caliber, and that cap hit percentage at that term is perfectly reasonable for Matthews, and is consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts. I have shown you this countless times. Matthews received the 6th highest value post-ELC contract in the cap era, term considered, and was, at worst, the 5th best player through his pre-signing period in the cap era.
There are more comparables than just McDavid, Matthews wasn't far off from McDavid in their respective pre-signing periods, and McDavid's 16.67% would equate to 13.6m under an 81.5m cap, not 12.5m. Beyond that, the 17.67% that he actually negotiated prior to his voluntary discount (a discount that wouldn't be held up as a comparable) would equate to 14.4m, and quite frankly, even that would have been a better than average contract.
Beyond the argument of how Matthews compared, to suggest that a contract would be bad if it didn't live up to McDavid's post-discount contract would be ridiculous, as it's arguably the most team-friendly top-tier post-ELC contract ever signed, but it's conveniently the only contract ever looked at by people who wish to misrepresent Matthews' contract.
There is nothing anomalous about the cap hit percentages or terms that Matthews/Marner got. Matthews/Marner were two of the best young players ever seen in the cap era, and players like that have always been among the league leaders in cap hit percentage, lesser term or not. McDavid still would have been there too with a lesser term. You also don't seem to realize how term impacts cap hits differently for post-ELC and UFA contracts that you're arbitrarily mixing together despite the fact that they have nothing to do with each other.
Zur En Arrh
Registered User
- Apr 16, 2022
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I learned via edm board today that we cherry picked a fifty game sample to say Matthews scored 50/50.. That Mcd will do it and he the only true 50/50 in 30 years... Insecure!!! Is it 2026 yet? Tick tok tick tock!!!
Imagine if drai didn't have mcd, I doubt he would even be close!
Matthews>>>>>>>drai ainec
Imagine if drai didn't have mcd, I doubt he would even be close!
Matthews>>>>>>>drai ainec
LeafsNation75
Registered User
Did you not remember that if Matthews signed for 8 years it was reported that he wanted north of what Connor McDavid was making which was $12.5 million AAV. At that time for him to get 8 years his best comparable was the 8 years/$10 million AAV Jack Eichel got from Buffalo.
When Matthews signed his current contract he didn't win the Hart Trophy, Ted Lindsay or his 2 Rocket Richards. The only thing on his resume at that time was winning the Calder Trophy and having scoring 40 goals in his rookie season.
Clark4Ever
What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Agreed, and it's also worth noting that his shooting percentage this season is well below his career average, which is unlikely to continue.
I'm not worried about him.
thewave
Toronto Maple Leafs Toy Co.
- Jun 17, 2011
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We should all know by now the contracts were no good. If you don't know this its because they simply dont understand your research. You are correct in that they needed to be 8yrs to even be considered reasonable,.
I don't care about the numbers, it's the eye test that worries me. Something's wrong with Matthews, and its not a lingering wrist issue.
saffronleaf
Registered User
yet another poor game
if this season so far becomes the new norm for malthews, next contract should be 8m max or else consider signing a real elite player instead
if this season so far becomes the new norm for malthews, next contract should be 8m max or else consider signing a real elite player instead
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
I wouldn't stress it. I remember Ovechkin dropping to 32 goals and 38 goals in a season when he was 25/26.
Think Matthews isn't 100% healthy and still playing.
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
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It would be quite reasonable for Matthews to want the full 8 years, lock in a big AAV and stay where he likes it where there’s a shot at winning with a team he started with.
Hockey players tend not to pull short term Kawhi style maneuvers and his “down” year this year is an example of the possible risk. What if 2021-22 is his high water mark and he doesn’t approach that on his next deal? You’d be betting on yourself but the long term money is the long term money.
Hockey players tend not to pull short term Kawhi style maneuvers and his “down” year this year is an example of the possible risk. What if 2021-22 is his high water mark and he doesn’t approach that on his next deal? You’d be betting on yourself but the long term money is the long term money.
hamzarocks
Registered User
Ovechkin rebounding after had to do with his insane health streak as well. He didn't suffer any major injuries after that really.
If Matthews has a few down years, it will be very unlikely he can challenge OV for the all-time Goals record as his career moves forward (something he looked to be doing as of 2022)
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
It's just so hard to predict how many goals any player will finish their career with.
Ovechkin has been a unicorn with his health and the longevity of scoring at 50 goal paces at age 36 and 37.
capfit9
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- Oct 29, 2009
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I’m sure his off seasons in Russia helped with that. Russia makes sure their athletes succeed by any means
, especially the ones that are close to their supreme leader.
DraftSchmaft
Registered User
- Jul 29, 2021
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I'd rather he break records in the playoffs over regular season anyways
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
Not worried man. Uncle Gary will take care of Mathews when that time arrives.I’m sure his off seasons in Russia helped with that. Russia makes sure their athletes succeed by any means
thewave
Toronto Maple Leafs Toy Co.
- Jun 17, 2011
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It's very close. The sub 400 games played crowd are one tier and the 400+ another tier. You're getting into an entire second season to achieve similar.
Not worried man. Uncle Gary will take care of Mathews when that time arrives.
Uncle Gary Bet99man? Not only that he will relocate him to the USA as well. Almost assuredly lol.
LeafsNation75
Registered User
This happened before the rules of 7 and 8 year contract limits, however well before Matthews this is a list of players who re-signed for 5 years after ELC and re-signed again for 8 years with the team who drafted them.
Steven Stamkos
Patrick Kane
Jonthan Toews
Evegni Malkin
Victor Hedman
Around that same time is when Sidney Crosby signed a 12 year contract extension with the Penguins and Alex Ovechkin signed a 13 year contract extension with the Capitals.
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