Tribute Auston Matthews Discussion Thread II: Record Breaking Edition

[Jumptheshark]

I have a question

When can the Leaf sign him to a new contract

 

[keonsbitterness]

I have a question

When can the Leaf sign him to a new contract

July 1, 2023

 

[Jumptheshark]

July 1, 2023

No idea why but I thought it was Jan 1st

 

[Dekes For Days]

He hasn't really sacrificed offense though he's just shooting well below his carerr average of 16.4%. If he continues his pace and get's back to that rate he'd be on pace for 59.7 goals this year. He's been snakebitten and shooting just 11% so far.

Yeah, this season has really demonstrated how horrible the so-called "eye test" actually is for a lot of people here. A lot of people are only capable of seeing the end result of goals and making assumptions based off that, instead of understanding what's actually happening.

Matthews isn't "sacrificing offense". His offensive generation is just fine. He's just shooting well below his normal (11.3% when he's been 14.3-18.5% his whole career), and he's contributing to a lot of goals for his line that he's not picking up points for (60%, when he's been 70-80% his whole career).
Matthews didn't suddenly figure out defense. He's been elite defensively for years. He's just been underappreciated for it because in past years, our goalies were letting in softy beach balls no matter what the defense in front was like.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No idea why but I thought it was Jan 1st

Players with 1-year contracts can be re-signed starting January 1st.
Players with term can be re-signed starting July 1st, one year before their contract ends.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I remember a prophetic post I read here after the 2019 Dubas vs rfa's fiasco.

It said to pay attention to the following every year going forward.

1. NO other offseason will have anywhere near the "offersheet" hysteria than 2019. It was a made up narrative to rationalize the Dubas unprecedented dramatic overpayments. And this one has been true. Not a peep about offersheets. You don't ever hear anything about it to anywhere NEAR the same level. Only in 2019.

2. NO other season will focus on /60 stats. The leaf forums became a meme NHL wide for literally out of nowhere relying on /60 stats because our players had mediocre real stats. Never since has this forum been flooded with /60 stats in relation to rfa numbers. That was a very uniquely 2019 statistic... and leaf fans are still mocked for it sometimes.

3. The very second... the very SECOND... Matthews starts putting up REAL elite numbers, the /60 gaslighting scheme will be 100% abandoned. And it has. lol. (well, other than when he's off his game. It rears its ugly head sometimes when that happens).

4. If Matthews has a mediocre year offensively the narrative will immediately change to how "well" he's playing defense. Lol, and here we have it. Matthews is 18th in points and goals and only TWO players above him have a higher aav than him. He's underperforming his contract BIG TIME. And so look at this forum FLOODING the board with his defensive stats. Lol, so predictable.

Like I said, it was a prophetic post. And it all came true.

 

[Jojalu]

I remember a prophetic post I read here after the 2019 Dubas vs rfa's fiasco.

It said to pay attention to the following every year going forward.

1. NO other offseason will have anywhere near the "offersheet" hysteria than 2019. It was a made up narrative to rationalize the Dubas unprecedented dramatic overpayments. And this one has been true. Not a peep about offersheets. You don't ever hear anything about it to anywhere NEAR the same level. Only in 2019.

2. NO other season will focus on /60 stats. The leaf forums became a meme NHL wide for literally out of nowhere relying on /60 stats because our players had mediocre real stats. Never since has this forum been flooded with /60 stats in relation to rfa numbers. That was a very uniquely 2019 statistic... and leaf fans are still mocked for it sometimes.

3. The very second... the very SECOND... Matthews starts putting up REAL elite numbers, the /60 gaslighting scheme will be 100% abandoned. And it has. lol. (well, other than when he's off his game. It rears its ugly head sometimes when that happens).

4. If Matthews has a bad year offensively the narrative will immediately change to how "well" he's playing defense. Lol, and here we have it. Matthews is 18th in points and goals and only TWO players above him have a higher aav than him. He's underperforming his contract BIG TIME. And so look at this forum FLOODING the board with his defensive stats. Lol, so predictable.

Like I said, it was a prophetic post. And it all came true.

Since Matthews entered the league no one has svored more goals.

So he is not underforming his contract.

I suppose you choose to ignore every post/article/podcast that talks about per 60 as it is still widely used all over the place and not just mentioning the Leafs.

Whatever wild fascination you have will dramatic unprecidented overpayments just let it go and stop inventing ways to falsely pat yourself on the back.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Since Matthews entered the league no one has svored more goals.

So he is not underforming his contract.

I suppose you choose to ignore every post/article/podcast that talks about per 60 as it is still widely used all over the place and not just mentioning the Leafs.

Whatever wild fascination you have will dramatic unprecidented overpayments just let it go and stop inventing ways to falsely pat yourself on the back.

He's not earning his contract THIS year. He earned it last year (in the regular season anyways). He demanded being paid as (tied for) the best player in the league (when term is included) so I expect at the very least a Richard and Hart every season. He's currently 18th in points and almost THIRTY points behind the player he demanded to be paid the same as.

Does my position seem unreasonable? Outrageous even? Damn right it does.

Outrageous contracts come with outrageous expectations.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I remember a prophetic post I read here after the 2019 Dubas vs rfa's fiasco.

It said to pay attention to the following every year going forward.

1. NO other offseason will have anywhere near the "offersheet" hysteria than 2019. It was a made up narrative to rationalize the Dubas unprecedented dramatic overpayments. And this one has been true. Not a peep about offersheets. You don't ever hear anything about it to anywhere NEAR the same level. Only in 2019.

2. NO other season will focus on /60 stats. The leaf forums became a meme NHL wide for literally out of nowhere relying on /60 stats because our players had mediocre real stats. Never since has this forum been flooded with /60 stats in relation to rfa numbers. That was a very uniquely 2019 statistic... and leaf fans are still mocked for it sometimes.

3. The very second... the very SECOND... Matthews starts putting up REAL elite numbers, the /60 gaslighting scheme will be 100% abandoned. And it has. lol. (well, other than when he's off his game. It rears its ugly head sometimes when that happens).

4. If Matthews has a mediocre year offensively the narrative will immediately change to how "well" he's playing defense. Lol, and here we have it. Matthews is 18th in points and goals and only TWO players above him have a higher aav than him. He's underperforming his contract BIG TIME. And so look at this forum FLOODING the board with his defensive stats. Lol, so predictable.

Like I said, it was a prophetic post. And it all came true.

I'm just curious if at all you've considered that the Leafs playing better defensively has affected things. Like McDavid is McDavid and he will put up points, but the Oilers play pond hockey and are on the pp for half the game. What I am getting at is if the Leafs play closer to the Islanders than they do the Oilers, the offensive numbers will be lower. If you don't really care how they play and it's just point totals vs. dollars you care about, fine.

You don't need to come back screaming with your UDO shtick (worried me giving it an acronym cause I'm too lazy to type it all will cause it to stick) or that Matthews is a disgrace or yada yada. I'm just wondering yes or no if you've at all considered it or if it's just pts totals vs. $ regardless of how the team plays.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I'm just curious if at all you've considered that the Leafs playing better defensively has affected things. Like McDavid is McDavid and he will put up points, but the Oilers play pond hockey and are on the pp for half the game. What I am getting at is if the Leafs play closer to the Islanders than they do the Oilers, the offensive numbers will be lower. If you don't really care how they play and it's just point totals vs. dollars you care about, fine.

You don't need to come back screaming with your UDO shtick (worried me giving it an acronym cause I'm too lazy to type it all will cause it to stick) or that Matthews is a disgrace or yada yada. I'm just wondering yes or no if you've at all considered it or if it's just pts totals vs. $ regardless of how the team plays.

Good D doesn't pay the big bucks. You don't pay a guy as the highest paid player in the league (when term is included) and then say "focus on D". Defensive specialist forwards make 3-4 mil. Not 11.6

Other teams don't do this. When their super expensive players underperform their contracts, nobody says "Who cares. Their D is solid".

 

[Jojalu]

He's not earning his contract THIS year. He earned it last year (in the regular season anyways). He demanded being paid as (tied for) the best player in the league (when term is included) so I expect at the very least a Richard and Hart every season. He's currently 18th in points and almost THIRTY points behind the player he demanded to be paid the same as.

Does my position seem unreasonable? Outrageous even? Damn right it does.

Outrageous contracts come with outrageous expectations.

What is more important?

Team success or individul success?

I will take Matthews play leading to team success over McDavids individual success while they sit outside the playoffs.

No one wins the Rocket or Hart every year. Not even 99 while he played so your demands are unreasonable.

The fact remains no player has scored more goals since Matthews has been paid. He got paid to score goals and he is doing just that.

 

[Zybalto]

All time goals per game in the NHL (min 200 career goals):

1. Bossy
2. Lemieux
3. Denneny
4. Dye
5. Matthews
6. Bure
7. Ovechkin
8. Gretz
9. Brett Hull
10. Bobby Hull

Defensively, slightly down from last season (but still elite, especially with his offensive numbers) and a poor shooting% to start the season but he remains easily one of the best players in the league and one of the few Max contract-worthy players out there (certainly a steal at his current contract).

 

[Dekes For Days]

1. NO other offseason will have anywhere near the "offersheet" hysteria than 2019. It was a made up narrative to rationalize the Dubas unprecedented dramatic overpayments. And this one has been true. Not a peep about offersheets. You don't ever hear anything about it to anywhere NEAR the same level. Only in 2019.

There was offer sheet hysteria in 2019, but it was never to "rationalize unprecedented dramatic overpayments". "Unprecedented dramatic overpayments" never existed in the first place, much less at that point in time. It was just a catchphrase you repeated ad nauseum to misrepresent our signings, despite it being repeatedly proven to you that the contracts had a ton of precedence and were consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

The main reasons for the offer sheet hysteria were:
1. The Leafs had high-tier RFAs eligible for offer sheets, and blowing up that discussion in the biggest hockey market drives viewership and revenue for media entities.
2. There was legitimately higher offer sheet potential than any other year since, as there was an abnormally big group of mid to elite tier RFAs, coming off big years, that hadn't yet signed prior to hitting offer-sheet eligibility, in an offseason that saw the NHLPA take never-before-seen measures that limited cap growth more than expected. Which is why this is the year we actually did see the most offer sheet activity, with offer sheets being considered for Point, offer sheets being given to Marner, and an offer sheet being signed by Aho.

2. NO other season will focus on /60 stats. The leaf forums became a meme NHL wide for literally out of nowhere relying on /60 stats because our players had mediocre real stats. Never since has this forum been flooded with /60 stats in relation to rfa numbers. That was a very uniquely 2019 statistic... and leaf fans are still mocked for it sometimes.
3. The very second... the very SECOND... Matthews starts putting up REAL elite numbers, the /60 gaslighting scheme will be 100% abandoned. And it has. lol.

First off, per-60 statistics are still used just as much, if not more. I don't know where you've gotten the idea that they've disappeared.
Second, it's mind-boggling that you still attack per-60 metrics and their use in those situations, when history has proven every single one of the arguments that were made using them to be correct.

You still don't seem to understand why they were so relevant and important when discussing Matthews/Marner. The issue was that, as a result of era, team, and Babcock's incompetence, pretty much every single player in cap era history that was remotely a comparable for Matthews/Marner received a significant amount more PP time/opportunity, despite doing less in that time. As a result, raw points significantly underrepresented the quality and impact of Matthews/Marner and how they projected forward, relative to their comparables.

Obviously, as that abnormal opportunity gap lessens, the gap between what raw and per-60 metrics are showing lessens, and in that situation, most people will default to the raw metrics that are more widely understood and accepted. That doesn't equate to "a gaslighting scheme being abandoned", or diminish the importance of per-60 metrics in the situations they were used in.

4. If Matthews has a mediocre year offensively the narrative will immediately change to how "well" he's playing defense. Lol, and here we have it. Matthews is 18th in points and goals and only TWO players above him have a higher aav than him. He's underperforming his contract BIG TIME. And so look at this forum FLOODING the board with his defensive stats. Lol, so predictable.

1. Matthews is not underperforming his contract.
2. Matthews is factually playing excellent defense. He has in fact been a top tier defensive player for years.
3. The reason people are finally crediting his defense this year has more to do with people's inability to separate defense and goaltending, and our goalies finally not being sieves, more than it has to do with him being snakebitten in point production.

 

[Mr Bill Waters]

Only other generational player in the league.

 

[notDatsyuk]

He hasn't really sacrificed offense though he's just shooting well below his carerr average of 16.4%. If he continues his pace and get's back to that rate he'd be on pace for 59.7 goals this year. He's been snakebitten and shooting just 11% so far.

I think Willy being more of a shooter than Mitch helps, as it splits focus - Matthews is 13.4% since the switch.

 

[kb]

Since Matthews entered the league no one has svored more goals.

So he is not underforming his contract.

I suppose you choose to ignore every post/article/podcast that talks about per 60 as it is still widely used all over the place and not just mentioning the Leafs.

Whatever wild fascination you have will dramatic unprecidented overpayments just let it go and stop inventing ways to falsely pat yourself on the back.

This is bang on.

There is absolutely nothing tangible in that post you were replying to that even comes close to reality. It's all 'feelz', and "LOOK AT MEEEE!" with less than zero substance.

"Legend in one's own mind" comes very much to mind. But whatever makes people sleep at night. Personally, I just prefer not to sleep in a pile of bullshit.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think Willy being more of a shooter than Mitch helps, as it splits focus - Matthews is 13.4% since the switch.

Matthews had his best shooting percentage years with Marner, and 13.4% is still well below his average, so that's a weird conclusion.

 

[mclaren55]

Matthews had his best shooting percentage years with Marner, and 13.4% is still well below his average, so that's a weird conclusion.

I think his conclusion is drawn off the presumption that having another legitimate shooting threat opens up more opportunity for matthews.

However I believe it has helped Nylander more than it has helped matthews.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I don't think you can call it snakebitten if he's using his signature shot noticeably less often this year for whatever reason. He's picked it up recently but still nowhere close to last season. It's good that his 'plan B' game around the net he can default to when his shot isn't clicking is still a 40+ goal scorer with career high assist pace.

Having a floor of a 40/90 physical two way C is pretty ok I think.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I think his conclusion is drawn off the presumption that having another legitimate shooting threat opens up more opportunity for matthews.

However I believe it has helped Nylander more than it has helped matthews.

Correct, and I was also replying to a post speaking about this year.

I agree that it also helps Nylander, but I'm not sure whether it's more playing with Matthews or not playing with JT.

 

[mclaren55]

Correct, and I was also replying to a post speaking about this year.

I agree that it also helps Nylander, but I'm not sure whether it's more playing with Matthews or not playing with JT.

I think it’s due to most defence and goalies anticipating Matthews shooting vs Nylander. Plus Matthews is a better playmaker vs JT.

 

[Leafsfan74]

I remember a prophetic post I read here after the 2019 Dubas vs rfa's fiasco.

It said to pay attention to the following every year going forward.

1. NO other offseason will have anywhere near the "offersheet" hysteria than 2019. It was a made up narrative to rationalize the Dubas unprecedented dramatic overpayments. And this one has been true. Not a peep about offersheets. You don't ever hear anything about it to anywhere NEAR the same level. Only in 2019.

2. NO other season will focus on /60 stats. The leaf forums became a meme NHL wide for literally out of nowhere relying on /60 stats because our players had mediocre real stats. Never since has this forum been flooded with /60 stats in relation to rfa numbers. That was a very uniquely 2019 statistic... and leaf fans are still mocked for it sometimes.

3. The very second... the very SECOND... Matthews starts putting up REAL elite numbers, the /60 gaslighting scheme will be 100% abandoned. And it has. lol. (well, other than when he's off his game. It rears its ugly head sometimes when that happens).

4. If Matthews has a mediocre year offensively the narrative will immediately change to how "well" he's playing defense. Lol, and here we have it. Matthews is 18th in points and goals and only TWO players above him have a higher aav than him. He's underperforming his contract BIG TIME. And so look at this forum FLOODING the board with his defensive stats. Lol, so predictable.

Like I said, it was a prophetic post. And it all came true.

Matthews value to the franchiee goes well beyond goals and points alone. What is most glaring is the lack of playoff success for this group obviously and they don't need to be reminded. If Matty ever raised a Cup in T.O, his next contract offer would be a blank cheque. Ditto for others when the time arises.

Their focus is on the right elements: the process. Stats will take care of themselves as long as the wins pile up.

The teams mindset seems to be to prep for the playoffs, Matthews is no exception. I've said that if the team is winning at a high rate and their defense is a fortress, I couldn't care if Matty or Marner finished with 60 points. I truly mean that.

Winning is everything.

 

[authentic]

You can't really say Matthews is a combo of players and not include Ovechkin's goal-scoring ability.

He's like if Malkin, Datsyuk, and Ovechkin got smushed together.

Literally one of the rarest players we'll ever see.

The main boards would have fun with this one but you’re not wrong

 

[authentic]

You arnt wrong in the sense that Willy is no Mitch Marner defensively which has had a slight effect on the Matthews line this season but even so:


Since start of 2020 to the present:

Ranking of some of the top defensive centers in the NHL 5v5:

Shots Against/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Matthews
3. Danault
4. Kopitar
5. Barkov
6. O'Reilly

Scoring Chances Against/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Barkov
3. Matthews
4. Danault
5. Kopitar
6. O'Reilly

High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Matthews
3. Barkov
4. O'Reilly
5. Danault
6. Kopitar

xGA/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Matthews
3. Barkov
4. Danault
5. Kopitar
6. O'Reilly

Takeaways/60:
1. Matthews
2. Barkov
3. O'Reilly
4. Bergeron
5. Kopitar
6. Danault

Blocked Shots/60:
1. Kopitar
2. Matthews
3. Danault
4. Barkov
5. Bergeron
6. O'Reilly


Bergeron is the defensive god we all think he is but not only is Matthews great defensively but he is far better than some of the guys people think are elite.

Barkov is the most interesting to me as Matthews has had better defensive stats than him pretty much his whole career including the year Barkov won the Selke.

I really do think the wildly uneven goaltending has really contributed to him not getting recognition as there are too many morons in the press that equate Goals Against = D. If you have a tire fire in net, no amount of great D is going to help. Its not rocket science.

The two most underrated defensive players in the league are Matthews and Erikisson EK IMO.

Someone in the main boards legit said Matthews is one of the worst Centers in the league for HDCA.

 

[Shooter2x]

Matthews is the best player in the league if you're weighing offense and defense at the same time combo style.

Good luck to anyone trying to prove otherwise, the numbers and eye test both own you.