News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Dekes For Days]

Was his defense significantly worse in the 60 goal year? I don’t really see anything supporting that, he just couldn’t shoot last year.

His defense was actually better in the 60 goal year. I'm not sure how anybody could think this works like a set of sliders where you can only have one or the other, or how anybody could be so dismissive of defensive play.

 

[Boxscore]

There's nothing odd about stating facts, which is all I'm actually doing. Nobody is "arguing to overpay them" or excusing failure. We all want to pay our players as little as possible and win the cup.

The argument is not to overpay them. The argument is to understand their true quality, impact, and value, and how contract valuation works in the NHL, and accept paying them a fair, average amount that they have earned, that still helps the team, instead of losing them or berating them for a half decade - neither of which helps the team - just because we didn't get the most massive, ideal possible discount on them.

The argument is not to excuse failure. The argument is to understand how we've actually done in the playoffs, the things that factor into playoff outcomes, and the context behind ours, so that we can create the best chance to win moving forward. We can't change the past, and misunderstanding how the playoffs work and the reasons we've lost just leads to chasing the wrong solutions or self-destructive pathways, and moves us further away from winning the cup in the future.

I've seen this organization take the impatient route and screw things up enough times. This opportunity is too important.

I'll make this easy for you:

You cannot win in the playoffs when most of your cap is locked up by paying 4 offensive players top dollar. Period. Many of us call these absurd contracts "overpayments" and you call them "the price of doing business." At this point, tomayto, tomato... the fact is, this philosophy does not work. And we have a real time sample size of 1 playoff round win in 7 years to prove it. This is not opinion, conjecture, or hyperbole... it's fact.

Now you are trying to justify -- not only continuing to go down this path but -- paying them even more. You've been watching a broken, flawed, top-heavy team disappoint annually in the playoffs due to these massive, short-term contracts, and you are suggesting more of them.

You are not serious about winning a Cup. You are acting as a quasi-agent or cheerleader for your favorite superstars because you want to watch them each night. And, that's okay, if that's where you're coming from. This core is fun to watch during the regular season. But just admit that you are willing to overpay on short-term deals for players who have underachieved in the post season even though it's not a sustainable way to build a winner.

 

[Apex Predator]

His defense was actually better in the 60 goal year. I'm not sure how anybody could think this works like a set of sliders where you can only have one or the other, or how anybody could be so dismissive of defensive play.

No one is dismissing his defensive play. Just question the level some are saying he is at. I didn’t realize we had prime guy carbonneau and Patrice Bergeron before my eyes. My apologies.

 

[Boxscore]

No one is dismissing his defensive play. Just question the level some are saying he is at. I didn’t realize we had prime guy carbonneau and Patrice Bergeron before my eyes. My apologies.

Discussing Matthews "defensive play" after 7 years of playoff disappointment and underachievement is like spending $195,000 on a Maserati and drooling over the cup holders. It's absolutely ridiculous.

Instead of just calling it what it is and admitting Matthews has been a playoff disappointment, fans feel the need to defend him at all costs... "But, but, but, he plays defense... who cares about that 0.88 PPG!!"

 

[Martin Skoula]

Yeah I don't think we're on opposing sides of the argument here. Just saying that in fan chatter Matthews' defensive game is always hyped up whenever there's a dip in goal scoring, aka the bread and butter. Give me the bread and butter!

I’m sure they could have gotten him an extra 10-15 low calorie points on the year by giving him more touches in transition, pushing him to 80+ offensive zone starts, and letting him float at the blueline waiting for an outlet on the handful of dzone starts leftover. I just fail to see how this would make us a better team outside of some of you winning a few more internet arguments.

For me the bread and butter is coming out ahead on whatever matchup the other team wants to throw at him and forcing them to double team his shot on the powerplay.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You cannot win in the playoffs when most of your cap is locked up by paying 4 offensive players top dollar.

You can win in the playoffs with all sorts of different cap allocations, including ours. There is no one way to win a cup.

And we have a real time sample size of 1 playoff round win in 7 years to prove it.

Not only would that not be proof of your claim, it's not even true. We have not had this cap allocation for the past 7 years.
We're also not going to have the same kind of pandemic-caused stagnant cap allocation moving forward anyway.

You are not serious about winning a Cup.

Winning the cup is the only objective. You just refuse to accept that keeping our top tier players is the best way to get there.

 

[Boxscore]

I’m sure they could have gotten him an extra 10-15 low calorie points on the year by giving him more touches in transition, pushing him to 80+ offensive zone starts, and letting him float at the blueline waiting for an outlet on the handful of dzone starts leftover. I just fail to see how this would make us a better team outside of some of you winning a few more internet arguments.

For me the bread and butter is coming out ahead on whatever matchup the other team wants to throw at him and forcing them to double team his shot on the powerplay.

I mean, Leon Draisaitl has scored 1.6 PPG in the playoffs (including 2 PPG in one season). Connor McDavid scores at 1.5 PPG in the playoffs. If we're talking about Matthews being among the elite of the elite... shouldn't his bread and butter be scoring at their level instead of 0.88 PPG? Aren't those guys the oppositions primary focus as well? How come they are able to still perform at an elite level when it matters most? For all his contract demands, I don't expect Matthews to just "come out ahead" in a playoff matchup... I expect him to flat-out dominate.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I mean, Leon Draisaitl has scored 1.6 PPG in the playoffs (including 2 PPG in one season). Connor McDavid scores at 1.5 PPG in the playoffs. If we're talking about Matthews being among the elite of the elite... shouldn't his bread and butter be scoring at their level instead of 0.88 PPG? Aren't those guys the oppositions primary focus as well? How come they are able to still perform at an elite level when it matters most? For all his contract demands, I don't expect Matthews to just "come out ahead" in a playoff matchup... I expect him to flat-out dominate.

They didn’t dominate their match ups though, they treaded water. While McDavid was on the ice at ES his team scored 11 and allowed 12 goals, is this domination?

 

[Stephen]

I’m sure they could have gotten him an extra 10-15 low calorie points on the year by giving him more touches in transition, pushing him to 80+ offensive zone starts, and letting him float at the blueline waiting for an outlet on the handful of dzone starts leftover. I just fail to see how this would make us a better team outside of some of you winning a few more internet arguments.

For me the bread and butter is coming out ahead on whatever matchup the other team wants to throw at him and forcing them to double team his shot on the powerplay.

That I would disagree with vehemently. At the price point Matthews is commanding, I need reliable and irreplaceable offense 5 on 5 and on the PP like Leon Draisaitl. 50-60 goals, 100-120 points and reliable enough defense to make it hard for the oppositon to go blow for blow.

If he’s going to give me Kopitar-ish two way play, a flat 40 goals and 17th ranked PPG, that’s not $13.5 million value.

 

[Boxscore]

You just refuse to accept that keeping our top tier players is the best way to get there.

I refuse to accept that keeping our top tier players on completely one-sided, inflated, and short-term deals that only benefit them is the best way to get there. Because it hasn't worked, and not only has it not worked, it's been a disaster in the playoffs. If we came close even once... made it to the Conference Finals or the Cup and lost... that is a different story.

This isn't about keeping our top players. It's about giving them anything they want and completely cowering to them. Again, you're acting like a quasi-agent... only looking at this through the lens of how the players benefit financially. Not once have you advocated for some "give and take" or insinuating that you'd like to see one of our stars step up and give the Leafs a hometown discount to help keep the core together with the ability to add a better cast. Not once. It's all about, "Pay Matthews anything he wants, he deserves it!" It's comical.

 

[Stephen]

I mean, Leon Draisaitl has scored 1.6 PPG in the playoffs (including 2 PPG in one season). Connor McDavid scores at 1.5 PPG in the playoffs. If we're talking about Matthews being among the elite of the elite... shouldn't his bread and butter be scoring at their level instead of 0.88 PPG? Aren't those guys the oppositions primary focus as well? How come they are able to still perform at an elite level when it matters most? For all his contract demands, I don't expect Matthews to just "come out ahead" in a playoff matchup... I expect him to flat-out dominate.

Exactly. Matthews claim to the highest paid player in the game is premised on the ability to to put up more 2021-22 level seasons. That means he can provide a heavy duty, elite offensive volume so I’m not paying another teammate more money to be a high event player and have to chip in more offense. We can play defense by committee and tighten up defensively but we have proven to be incapable of opening up the flood gates when it really matters. So that’s a problem.

If Matthews is going to go through the Yzerman transformation into a lower level production two way player, he would have to take a much more conventional salary.

 

[Boxscore]

They didn’t dominate their match ups though, they treaded water. While McDavid was on the ice at ES his team scored 11 and allowed 12 goals, is this domination?

They absolutely did. You're looking at a 6-man stat and isolating it to 2 players who literally carried that team on their back offensively. The Oilers goaltending was average or below at times, giving up goals at the worst times. Their best defenseman was a young kid still learning on the job in Bouchard. And the Oilers also suffer from the same thing we do -- lack of high-end depth, due to their salary structure. That is a problem for them the same way it is for us... but at least their mega stars were scoring in the playoffs at a historic level that equaled Gretzky and Lemieux. If Matthews and Marner were scoring at that level, we likely would have been to the Cup at least once.

 

[Martin Skoula]

That I would disagree with vehemently. At the price point Matthews is commanding, I need reliable and irreplaceable offense 5 on 5 and on the PP like Leon Draisaitl. 50-60 goals, 100-120 points and reliable enough defense to make it hard for the oppositon to go blow for blow.

If he’s going to give me Kopitar-ish two way play, a flat 40 goals and 17th ranked PPG, that’s not $13.5 million value.

I don’t know why you keep misrepresenting the situation, the reason for 40 goals is because his highlight reel looked like Kreider’s this year, most of his goals were in tight because there was something blatantly wrong with his shooting. If the wrist is fixable, those extra 20 goals come back at no cost defensively. His shooting % goes back to 18% from the 12% he shot this year with no changes needed to his shooting volume or placement.

No shit if he’s not healthy he isn’t worth 13, if McDavid gets a degenerative knee condition that slows him down to Lucic speed he isn’t worth 12.5 either even if you let him cherry pick all game to compensate for the injury to artificially keep him above 100 points while going -30 on the year.

The wrist is either fixable or it isn’t, everything else is irrelevant. Unless one of us has inside medical info everything in this thread is just shit flinging. If the wrist is irreparably damaged going forward, no amount letting him cherry pick to pretend he’s 100+ point player again is going to make that contract worth it.

 

[Stephen]

They didn’t dominate their match ups though, they treaded water. While McDavid was on the ice at ES his team scored 11 and allowed 12 goals, is this domination?

When Auston Matthews is tied with Josh f'ing Morrissey for PP points (28 if anyone is counting), and ranked 38th in the league and McDavid has 71 on the PP, it puts a pretty big damper on the ES debate. Compared to McDavid, Matthews is simply a no show on the man advantage. He looked terrible on the PP all season, the number bear out.

Seriously, we're going to pay you the most money in the game, but please resume producing reliably like conventionally dominant superstar. At $13.5 million, all we need are gaudy numbers. Raw, real numbers that you can game plan for and not worry about drying up.

 

[Boxscore]

Exactly. Matthews claim to the highest paid player in the game is premised on the ability to to put up more 2021-22 level seasons. That means he can provide a heavy duty, elite offensive volume so I’m not paying another teammate more money to be a high event player and have to chip in more offense. We can play defense by committee and tighten up defensively but we have proven to be incapable of opening up the flood gates when it really matters. So that’s a problem.

If Matthews is going to go through the Yzerman transformation into a lower level production two way player, he would have to take a much more conventional salary.

100%. This has turned into a "deflect and defend Matthews based on the situation" contest with some. If he comes up small offensively in the playoffs, the excuse becomes, "But he played defense." If he dips from 106 to 85 points during the season, the excuse is, "It was just because of the injury." If he demands the highest salary in the NHL at half the term other superstars commit to, the excuse becomes, "He deserves it! And I don't want him more than five years anyway!"

I've never seen a fan base so petrified to even question a star player who has shown so much reluctance to commit to the team. It's baffling.

 

[Stephen]

I don’t know why you keep misrepresenting the situation, the reason for 40 goals is because his highlight reel looked like Kreider’s this year, most of his goals were in tight because there was something blatantly wrong with his shooting. If the wrist is fixable, those extra 20 goals come back at no cost defensively. His shooting % goes back to 18% from the 12% he shot this year with no changes needed to his shooting volume or placement.

No shit if he’s not healthy he isn’t worth 13, if McDavid gets a degenerative knee condition that slows him down to Lucic speed he isn’t worth 12.5 either even if you let him cherry pick all game to compensate for the injury to artificially keep him above 100 points while going -30 on the year.

The wrist is either fixable or it isn’t, everything else is irrelevant. Unless one of us has inside medical info everything in this thread is just shit flinging. If the wrist is irreparably damaged going forward, no amount letting him cherry pick to pretend he’s 100+ point player again is going to make that contract worth it.

The man is not 'worth' $13 million on a good day. It's simply the price of doing business which we all accept and are willing to move forward with...

Plus Matthews has massive expectations for numbers that are described in $, AAV and Years, it's only reasonable that there are big expectations for G, A, PTS and PP. Let the context work itself out. Just give me the numbers.

 

[Stephen]

100%. This has turned into a "deflect and defend Matthews based on the situation" contest with some. If he comes up small offensively in the playoffs, the excuse becomes, "But he played defense." If he dips from 106 to 85 points during the season, the excuse is, "It was just because of the injury." If he demands the highest salary in the NHL at half the term other superstars commit to, the excuse becomes, "He deserves it! And I don't want him more than five years anyway!"

I've never seen a fan base so petrified to even question a star player who has shown so much reluctance to commit to the team. It's baffling.

Matthews' salary benchmark is McDavid tier. My stats expectations and playoffs performance is basically Draisaitl and Mackinnon. It's completely fair and reasonable to pay a premium on his salary and just expect premium production.

For comparisons, I wonder if Avalanche fans argue amongst each other about "how dare you expect Cale Makar to have another Norris Trophy season."

 

[Dekes For Days]

I refuse to accept that keeping our top tier players on completely one-sided, inflated, and short-term deals that only benefit them is the best way to get there.

Keeping our top tier players is the best way to get there, even if our only option is to sign them to fair, average contracts instead of massive discounts.

Because it hasn't worked, and not only has it not worked, it's been a disaster in the playoffs.

We like to overreact to round and outcome, but it has not actually been the disaster that some paint it as, and just because something hasn't resulted in a particular outcome yet, it doesn't mean it can't give us the outcome we want, especially as our situation changes.

This isn't about keeping our top players. It's about giving them anything they want and completely cowering to them. Again, you're acting like a quasi-agent... only looking at this through the lens of how the players benefit financially. Not once have you advocated for some "give and take" or insinuating that you'd like to see one of our stars step up and give the Leafs a hometown discount to help keep the core together with the ability to add a better cast.

This is about keeping our top players, and the only lens I care about is how it benefits our team's quality and chance to win the cup. Of course I'd like to see massive hometown discounts, and everything as team-friendly as possible, but it's not reasonable to demand these players make massive outlier sacrifices and berate them and say disgusting, untrue things about them when I don't get what I want. Appropriately paid superstars is still much better than nothing.

 

[Enniskillen]

Matthews is a great flashy regular season warrior, and it’s hard to use a word “warrior” and Matthews in one sentence. He is a play off loser, and Leafs would be better off without his inflated salary.

 

[thewave]

Keeping our top tier players is the best way to get there, even if our only option is to sign them to fair, average contracts instead of massive discounts.

We like to overreact to round and outcome, but it has not actually been the disaster that some paint it as, and just because something hasn't resulted in a particular outcome yet, it doesn't mean it can't give us the outcome we want, especially as our situation changes.

This is about keeping our top players, and the only lens I care about is how it benefits our team's quality and chance to win the cup. Of course I'd like to see massive hometown discounts, and everything as team-friendly as possible, but it's not reasonable to demand these players make massive outlier sacrifices and berate them and say disgusting, untrue things about them when I don't get what I want. Appropriately paid superstars is still much better than nothing.

There has been no indication or progress towards winning a cup made. The cap situation is about to become dicey and so you assertions fall flat on their face. I am saying your assertions and expectations are fiction or fantasy. You promote pay schemes that are only valid in the Toronto market. Teams generally pay for performance not advanced stats.

 

[Boxscore]

Matthews is a great flashy regular season warrior, and it’s hard to use a word “warrior” and Matthews in one sentence. He is a play off loser, and Leafs would be better off without his inflated salary.

I wouldn't go that far lol. There's nothing about Matthews that makes him a loser. But there are concerns:

1. His greed and entitlement issues
2. His inconsistency
3. His lack of extra gear in the playoffs, and quite frankly, his lack of intensity overall
4. His apparent indifference to losing

I think Matthews could be a winner. But there's things he needs to own in order to increase his odds of success. He needs to start valuing winning as much as he values his paycheck. He needs to be willing to get dirty and battle for those hard playoff points. And he needs to mature and sacrifice some coin so the team can better support him with a deeper cast.

Until he stops acting like a man child who will take his ball and leave if he doesn't get his way, his legacy and dedication will be rightfully be questioned.

 

[hockeyes]

Talks a lot and accomplishes nothing while demanding top dollar, the entire franchise condensed into a single sentence. Matthews might actually be angling for Carltons job seeing how he embodies the spirit of the organization so much better.

 

[geo25]

I wouldn't go that far lol. There's nothing about Matthews that makes him a loser. But there are concerns:

1. His greed and entitlement issues
2. His inconsistency
3. His lack of extra gear in the playoffs, and quite frankly, his lack of intensity overall
4. His apparent indifference to losing

I think Matthews could be a winner. But there's things he needs to own in order to increase his odds of success. He needs to start valuing winning as much as he values his paycheck. He needs to be willing to get dirty and battle for those hard playoff points. And he needs to mature and sacrifice some coin so the team can better support him with a deeper cast.

Until he stops acting like a man child who will take his ball and leave if he doesn't get his way, his legacy and dedication will be rightfully be questioned.

His wrists also need to be seriously checked out...

 

[Dekes For Days]

There has been no indication or progress towards winning a cup made. The cap situation is about to become dicey and so you assertions fall flat on their face. I am saying your assertions and expectations are fiction or fantasy. You promote pay schemes that are only valid in the Toronto market. Teams generally pay for performance not advanced stats.

There has been progress towards winning a cup, and we are a lot closer than some will accept. The issue is that some people only accept what round you've gotten to (which we've actually also improved) as progress towards or closeness to a cup, even though something like that alone is extremely limited in its representative value. The cap situation isn't about to become "dicey". In fact, the cap situation is only improving, as the cap starts rising again.

The only expectations that are "fiction or fantasy" are expecting our players to be paid according to different standards than everybody else and take massive discounts. The methods of contract valuation that I discuss are how it works everywhere, not just in Toronto. What I am discussing is performance. Teams do not just look at raw points only and slap a number on. That would be obvious to anybody that spends just a couple minutes looking through contract history.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

If Matthews is waiting for Nylander to sign first they should just trade the blonde beefcake now.

Before this situation becomes an even bigger distraction. It's overshadowed everything else this summer. I can only imagine what happens once the season starts.

The whole situation is a hot mess of contradictions.

In 2018 these guys were so good the Leafs were forced to accelerate the rebuild. Except it's now 2023 and they STILL haven't contended. But that won't stop them from asking for more money.

To do the exact same not good enough job.

A symptom of organizational rot. Rogers and Bell taught ML$E everything they know about customer service. Don't even f***ing worry about it.

Because fans like me will always pay good money.

Watching a deteriorating product with a blind eye. It's not about winning. It's about the experience.

We should all just be happy having the honour of paying them millions of dollars to watch them play I guess.