News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Dekes For Days]

Funny how the underlying metrics always paint us as a god tier club and yet those pesky external factors always seem to come into play when the playoffs roll around. Why do these external factors only always pop up then but not the regular season and make the metrics used by posters such as yourself to measure our playoff performance look useless? Is it sample size again or is seven years really not enough?
I truly wonder why.

Underlying metrics don't paint us as a god tier team. It just paints us as one of the really good teams we are.
Why do the external influences skew things more in the playoffs than the regular season? Because over a good sample of the regular season, you're facing a similar variety of different teams, goalies, performances, streaks, injuries, strategies, etc. as everybody else, over a long period of time. So in the end, the situations that different players experience are more similar to each other, and there's enough of a sample for things to trend towards their normal. In the playoffs, players on different teams are experiencing different everything, and the sample sizes are tiny.

If, for example, some goalie goes on a 2 week tear in October, facing it impacts about 1% of your regular season stats and you're likely to face some goalie having a horrible time at some point and it all evens out. If a goalie has a two week tear in April, then facing it impacts 100% of your playoff stats and if you lose, no chance to face something different to even things out.

Those "7 years" really only represents close to half a season worth of games against a handful of teams and goalies, and how currently relevant is what they did 5, 6, 7 years ago as teenagers and kids anyway? Is somebody better in the playoffs now because they weren't good enough to make the playoffs when they were younger, so they don't have old stats dragging their career average down? It's not as simple as this player has X career playoff production so they're bad in the playoffs and will always be bad in the playoffs.

 

[authentic]

In Ovechkin's first 58 playoff games he had 61 points. Is that really significantly better than Matthews' numbers? Then it took another five years after that for him to win the Cup. The truth is that in the entirety of Ovechkin's career there was one playoff where everything broke right and the team won. it doesn't take away from the fact that he was probably the second best player in the NHL in his prime. The same will happen for Matthews at some point. Everything will break right, and his team will win.

People also ignore that Matthews does this while playing a really good defensive game as a center, and doesn't sit out there constantly for entire powerplays. Take away his one horrible series against Boston with 2 points in 7 games and he is essentially a point per game player in the playoffs, that same Boston team that held Crosby to just 1 assist in 4 games the year before.

 

[Legion34]

Taxes for AM are reduced by him living in tax free state of Arizona too, just not as long each year.

Not really. Or at least not easily.

1.) he earns money in Canada. He can claim American residency by showing he had greater financial ties to the us. Part of that is living in the states (offseason plus road). So he makes a point of not coming back in the summer. That can be messed up by a playoff run against a Canadian team

2.) to make that work. He can’t own property. Long term leases. Kids in school etc. so far thars probably ok but it’s a lot of work

3.) american residents can get double taxed. An rca can avoid that sometimes. But basically you tie your money in and get taxed when you take it out. You have to move somewhere and take it out peice by peice.

Even IF he can do it. The rca is no where near cash in hand. If he wants to invest. He can’t if he wanted to live in Toronto or a high tax area when he takes his money out he still gets taxes.

It’s a temporary deferral with potential for reduction if you wait 20’years and take it out bit by bit

 

[Arzak]

In Ovechkin's first 58 playoff games he had 61 points. Is that really significantly better than Matthews' numbers? Then it took another five years after that for him to win the Cup. The truth is that in the entirety of Ovechkin's career there was one playoff where everything broke right and the team won. it doesn't take away from the fact that he was probably the second best player in the NHL in his prime. The same will happen for Matthews at some point. Everything will break right, and his team will win.

Ovi the guy who led NHL in hits vs Matthews in playoffs.

 

[Evilhomer]

Ovi the guy who led NHL in hits vs Matthews in playoffs.

How is this relevant to anything? Noel Acciari led the playoffs in hits for a while. Did it have any impact on anything?

 

[notbias]

Ovi the guy who led NHL in hits vs Matthews in playoffs.

You know Matthews has led some series in hits and it's done nothing, right?

 

[Apex Predator]

People also ignore that Matthews does this while playing a really good defensive game as a center, and doesn't sit out there constantly for entire powerplays. Take away his one horrible series against Boston with 2 points in 7 games and he is essentially a point per game player in the playoffs, that same Boston team that held Crosby to just 1 assist in 4 games the year before.

I think Matthews is fine defensively but not at the level some paint him to be. If he was as good as everyone is saying he would be penalty killing.

 

[authentic]

I think Matthews is fine defensively but not at the level some paint him to be. If he was as good as everyone is saying he would be penalty killing.

Not true at all. We have 3rd and 4th liners who are amazing penalty killers, why would you waste someone who's that valuable at even strength as Matthews?

There was a game in round 1 against Tampa that went to OT, Matthews played over 24 minutes and Tampa didn't record a single shot against the Leafs when Matthews was on the ice. If anything he is underrated defensively among most fans on here including Leafs fans.

 

[IPS]

Not true at all. We have 3rd and 4th liners who are amazing penalty killers, why would you waste someone who's that valuable at even strength as Matthews?

There was a game in round 1 against Tampa that went to OT, Matthews played over 24 minutes and Tampa didn't record a single shot against the Leafs when Matthews was on the ice. If anything he is underrated defensively among most fans on here including Leafs fans.

Then why is Marner "wasted" on the PK?

 

[Boxscore]

I think Matthews is fine defensively but not at the level some paint him to be. If he was as good as everyone is saying he would be penalty killing.

Correct. "Fine" is a great way to put it. If he was a real difference maker on defense like Barkov, Bergeron, Datsyuk, Kopitar... or hell, even Couturier... he'd be winning Selkes. I find it comical that people label Matthews Bob Gainey 2.0 in an attempt to justify his demands to be overpaid. The fact that he doesn't cherry pick still doesn't make him worth 13.5.

 

[authentic]

Then why is Marner "wasted" on the PK?

Correct. "Fine" is a great way to put it. If he was a real difference maker on defense like Barkov, Bergeron, Datsyuk, Kopitar... or hell, even Couturier... he'd be winning Selkes. I find it comical that people label Matthews Bob Gainey 2.0 in an attempt to justify his demands to be overpaid. The fact that he doesn't cherry pick still doesn't make him worth 13.5.

Matthews is better offensively and defensively at ES than Marner is, and it's not really that close overall either. Marner is an exceptionally good PKer as well and there are 4th liners who PK, playing on the PK has next to no indication of how good you are defensively at even strength. Not to mention we've had a really good penalty kill anyway, there was no need to have Matthews out there to boost his defensive reputation among certain fans who are strangely critical of his defensive play.

Also, the idea that Matthews is just "Fine" defensively is a joke, nearly every single stat as well as the eye test shows he is so much closer to their level than just merely above average. You really have to watch a little harder I guess or just set your emotional bias aside for a while.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Then why is Marner "wasted" on the PK?

Marner isn’t out there for defense, he’s out there to pressure the point and be a counter attack threat to force the PP to play scared. Unless the center has separation speed to get in on a breakaway from down low, they’re not going to be a threat on the counter attack unless they abandon their defensive coverage.

Our PK centres are there to win faceoffs and protect the slot, Matthews does these things better than Kampf but the difference is marginal in that role compared to having Marner vs ZAR as the winger pressuring for a breakaway. If we had a prime Grabner/Helm type, Marner wouldn’t be getting 1st unit PK time either.

 

[ACC1224]

Matthews is better offensively and defensively at ES than Marner is, and it's not really that close overall either. Marner is an exceptionally good PKer as well and there are 4th liners who PK, playing on the PK has next to no indication of how good you are defensively at even strength. Not to mention we've had a really good penalty kill anyway, there was no need to have Matthews out there to boost his defensive reputation among certain fans who are strangely critical of his defensive play.

Also, the idea that Matthews is just "Fine" defensively is a joke, nearly every single stat as well as the eye test shows he is so much closer to their level than just merely above average. You really have to watch a little harder I guess or just set your emotional bias aside for a while.

Any thoughts on why Matthews doesn't receive the Selke attention that Marner does?

https://media.nhl.com/public/news/17221

 

[Stephen]

Not true at all. We have 3rd and 4th liners who are amazing penalty killers, why would you waste someone who's that valuable at even strength as Matthews?

There was a game in round 1 against Tampa that went to OT, Matthews played over 24 minutes and Tampa didn't record a single shot against the Leafs when Matthews was on the ice. If anything he is underrated defensively among most fans on here including Leafs fans.

By that logic, why is Marner out there on the PK? We've been told over and over again Marner's PK work is what separates him from mortals like Rantanen. Wouldn't the same logic apply to Matthews if he was that good defensively?

Matthews defensive prowess is a red herring anyway. I actually don't need him to be so Selke-lite at all if it meant he put in his 50-60 goal seasons, 100-120 points and didn't let up in the playoffs. I don't need his defense, don't need his shot blocking and I don't need his defense used as a reason for why his numbers were down like they were in 2022-23.

 

[Martin Skoula]

By that logic, why is Marner out there on the PK? We've been told over and over again Marner's PK work is what separates him from mortals like Rantanen. Wouldn't the same logic apply to Matthews if he was that good defensively?

Matthews defensive prowess is a red herring anyway. I actually don't need him to be so Selke-lite at all if it meant he put in his 50-60 goal seasons, 100-120 points and didn't let up in the playoffs. I don't need his defense, don't need his shot blocking and I don't need his defense used as a reason for why his numbers were down like they were in 2022-23.

When was it ever posited as an either-or with regards to defense and 60 goals? The whole point is that he can score 60 without needing to cheat for offense, there isn’t a Sophie’s choice situation here. It’s glaringly obvious to even the room temperature IQ’d that the difference between this year and last is he couldn’t score from distance off his bread and butter shot for whatever reason, that has less than nothing to do with being reliable across all 200 feet of the ice.

Either the wrist is fixable going forward or it isn’t, literally no other part of this debate matters one iota.

 

[authentic]

By that logic, why is Marner out there on the PK? We've been told over and over again Marner's PK work is what separates him from mortals like Rantanen. Wouldn't the same logic apply to Matthews if he was that good defensively?

Matthews defensive prowess is a red herring anyway. I actually don't need him to be so Selke-lite at all if it meant he put in his 50-60 goal seasons, 100-120 points and didn't let up in the playoffs. I don't need his defense, don't need his shot blocking and I don't need his defense used as a reason for why his numbers were down like they were in 2022-23.

His numbers went down in 2022-23 because of the very obvious injury where he couldn't shoot or handle the puck very well all season, was noticeably slower and fatigued, etc.

I don't get what good it does us to pretend he isn't an absolutely elite two-way player because he doesn't PK. The game is drastically different 5vs5 and there are amazing PKrs who don't remotely compare to him at even strength

 

[Boxscore]

I don't get what good it does us to pretend he isn't an absolutely elite two-way player because he doesn't PK.

Because he's not an "elite two-way player." He's an elite shooter, great offensive player, and above average defensive player at times.

Pavel Datsyuk was an elite two-way player. Just because Matthews isn't atrocious in his own zone doesn't make him Bobby Clarke, no matter how much you try to position him as elite defensively.

Why is it that the things Matthews legitimately does well are magnified to another level, but his shortcomings are swept under the rug and blindly defended and excused?

 

[Zur En Arrh]

Because he's not an "elite two-way player." He's an elite shooter, great offensive player, and above average defensive player at times.

Pavel Datsyuk was an elite two-way player. Just because Matthews isn't atrocious in his own zone doesn't make him Bobby Clarke, no matter how much you try to position him as elite defensively.

Why is it that the things Matthews legitimately does well are magnified to another level, but his shortcomings are swept under the rug and blindly defended and excused?

Just....wow....

 

[Racer88]

Because he's not an "elite two-way player." He's an elite shooter, great offensive player, and above average defensive player at times.

Pavel Datsyuk was an elite two-way player. Just because Matthews isn't atrocious in his own zone doesn't make him Bobby Clarke, no matter how much you try to position him as elite defensively.

Why is it that the things Matthews legitimately does well are magnified to another level, but his shortcomings are swept under the rug and blindly defended and excused?

Last year he wasn’t even an elite shooter

 

[notbias]

Any thoughts on why Matthews doesn't receive the Selke attention that Marner does?

https://media.nhl.com/public/news/17221

If you don't PK they don't even look at you.

Could be wrong here, but don't think there are many votes for anyone who doesn't PK.

 

[thewave]

Underlying metrics don't paint us as a god tier team. It just paints us as one of the really good teams we are.
Why do the external influences skew things more in the playoffs than the regular season? Because over a good sample of the regular season, you're facing a similar variety of different teams, goalies, performances, streaks, injuries, strategies, etc. as everybody else, over a long period of time. So in the end, the situations that different players experience are more similar to each other, and there's enough of a sample for things to trend towards their normal. In the playoffs, players on different teams are experiencing different everything, and the sample sizes are tiny.

If, for example, some goalie goes on a 2 week tear in October, facing it impacts about 1% of your regular season stats and you're likely to face some goalie having a horrible time at some point and it all evens out. If a goalie has a two week tear in April, then facing it impacts 100% of your playoff stats and if you lose, no chance to face something different to even things out.

Those "7 years" really only represents close to half a season worth of games against a handful of teams and goalies, and how currently relevant is what they did 5, 6, 7 years ago as teenagers and kids anyway? Is somebody better in the playoffs now because they weren't good enough to make the playoffs when they were younger, so they don't have old stats dragging their career average down? It's not as simple as this player has X career playoff production so they're bad in the playoffs and will always be bad in the playoffs.

IMHO you peddle BS to these boards. You come off as agenda based and that agenda seems to be to inflate the value of the most highly paid Leafs players. The odd thing about that is that it is a position that only logically makes sense from the perspective of a players parent or agent, or the player themselves. I don't see how this works in the real world because I imagine nobody in such position pays attention to this sort of thing. As to say, what happens here is useless in negotiations, though it may do something for public opinion, perhaps.

It's just rather odd how you essentially argue to overpay them and excuse the failures of this team in the POs

 

[Stephen]

When was it ever posited as an either-or with regards to defense and 60 goals? The whole point is that he can score 60 without needing to cheat for offense, there isn’t a Sophie’s choice situation here. It’s glaringly obvious to even the room temperature IQ’d that the difference between this year and last is he couldn’t score from distance off his bread and butter shot for whatever reason, that has less than nothing to do with being reliable across all 200 feet of the ice.

Either the wrist is fixable going forward or it isn’t, literally no other part of this debate matters one iota.

It's usually inferred like a set of sliders. Fewer goals but behold the awesome defensive effort, shot blocking.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It's usually inferred like a set of sliders. Fewer goals but behold the awesome defensive effort, shot blocking.

Was his defense significantly worse in the 60 goal year? I don’t really see anything supporting that, he just couldn’t shoot last year.

 

[Stephen]

Was his defense significantly worse in the 60 goal year? I don’t really see anything supporting that, he just couldn’t shoot last year.

Yeah I don't think we're on opposing sides of the argument here. Just saying that in fan chatter Matthews' defensive game is always hyped up whenever there's a dip in goal scoring, aka the bread and butter. Give me the bread and butter!

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's just rather odd how you essentially argue to overpay them and excuse the failures of this team in the POs

There's nothing odd about stating facts, which is all I'm actually doing. Nobody is "arguing to overpay them" or excusing failure. We all want to pay our players as little as possible and win the cup.

The argument is not to overpay them. The argument is to understand their true quality, impact, and value, and how contract valuation works in the NHL, and accept paying them a fair, average amount that they have earned, that still helps the team, instead of losing them or berating them for a half decade - neither of which helps the team - just because we didn't get the most massive, ideal possible discount on them.

The argument is not to excuse failure. The argument is to understand how we've actually done in the playoffs, the things that factor into playoff outcomes, and the context behind ours, so that we can create the best chance to win moving forward. We can't change the past, and misunderstanding how the playoffs work and the reasons we've lost just leads to chasing the wrong solutions or self-destructive pathways, and moves us further away from winning the cup in the future.

I've seen this organization take the impatient route and screw things up enough times. This opportunity is too important.