News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Dekes For Days]

I don't even understand why some people are choosing to put down empty net goals to advance a pointless ranking of two very similar players...

People are correctly pointing out that production created against a goalie is very different than production created against a wide open net, and they represent very different things about the ability of a player to generate offense, and thus hold massively different value. The issue is that some people won't accept that these are "two very similar players", due to the empty net goals and points.

 

[geo25]

Not sure if you guys have been reading these recently, but someone has compiled a list of the top 40 players this past season for shooting and passing.

Whoever JfreshHockey is...

Turns out, Maythews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares are 4 of the best even strength players at what we want them to do: create goals.

And despite having Avery down season, Matthews finishes 1st in the shooting list and 4th in combination shooting and passing list.....

Nylander, after playing the year with Matthews for the most part, shoots up the ranking as well.

Must be a coincidence that Nylander becomes a much better offensive player riding shot gun with 34 for a year after a couple of good, but not great seasons playing with JT.


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I don't know who JFreshHockey, or UnpopularOpinionJake are (maybe same person), or what AllThreeZones is.

Just wanted to add to the data about Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares.

The 4 of them get a ton of shit from this idiot fanbase, but they have generally done what should have been expected of them over the last 7 seasons.

It's the entirety of the supporting cast that has shit the bed too much and too often (especially the goaltending and defenders 3-8).

Yeah....you can put out all the data/stats you like but the cold reality is this core has done nothing. Tgey cant win...
Period. Dont blame the minimum wage guys for their inability to produce. This core has shit the bed not the other way around. They need to jettisoned out....how much more proof of failure do we need....

 

[Stephen]

People are correctly pointing out that production created against a goalie is very different than production created against a wide open net, and they represent very different things about the ability of a player to generate offense, and thus hold massively different value. The issue is that some people won't accept that these are "two very similar players", due to the empty net goals and points.

EN are just situationally different from your typical shot on goal with a goalie in the net. There's no reason to diminish or hype them up other than they're part of the game and require effort to score.

With an EN goal you 1) start out at the defensive end on a 6 on 5 to protect a lead of some sort, 2) require a defensive zone faceoff win (which is applicable if you're talking about a cente) or 3) someone on your line creates a turnover and puck recovery and 4) you score from distance possibly with the threat of icing. You may or may not have done more work than scoring with a goalie in the net. It's just different.

 

[IPS]

Just when you thought the /60 stats were getting unbearably stupid, here comes the "empty net points don't count" rhetoric.

 

[andora]

Just when you thought the /60 stats were getting unbearably stupid, here comes the "empty net points don't count" rhetoric.

Maybe willy would get more if he was used more

f***en keefe :p

 

[Dekes For Days]

EN are just situationally different from your typical shot on goal with a goalie in the net.

Yeah. In that they're massively, massively easier to do, and not very representative of the ability of a player to generate offense in any kind of usual situation.

With an EN goal you 1) start out at the defensive end on a 6 on 5 to protect a lead of some sort, 2) require a defensive zone faceoff win (which is applicable if you're talking about a cente) or 3) someone on your line creates a turnover and puck recovery and 4) you score from distance possibly with the threat of icing. You may or may not have done more work than scoring with a goalie in the net.

Empty net goals take many different forms. One thing they all have in common is that they're massively easier than scoring against a goalie. Empty net goals don't even really reflect effort on the preceding play very well. It often ends up just going to the player designated to be the one attacking the points in 5v6 situations, because they're closest.

 

[Stephen]

Yeah. In that they're massively, massively easier to do, and not very representative of the ability of a player to generate offense in any kind of usual situation.

Empty net goals take many different forms. One thing they all have in common is that they're massively easier than scoring against a goalie. Empty net goals don't even really reflect effort on the preceding play very well. It often ends up just going to the player designated to be the one attacking the points in 5v6 situations, because they're closest.

Not all goals scored with a goalie in the net are created equal either. That's why people don't spend time trash talking tap ins, deflections, Michigans, snipes, one timers, breakaways in order to pump up one guy vs another.

 

[andora]

Not all goals scored with a goalie in the net are created equal either. That's why people don't spend time trash talking tap ins, deflections, Michigans, snipes, one timers, breakaways in order to pump up one guy vs another.

Oh god...

Atleast that analysis should eat up a couple weeks

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not all goals scored with a goalie in the net are created equal either.

No, they're not. There can be all kinds of scenarios for goalie in or out. But one thing the goalie in scenarios all have in common is that there is a goalie there, in the way of that puck going in the net, which inherently makes it massively harder to do.

And considering that 99% of the game is played with a goalie in the net, and literally anybody can throw a puck into an empty net, that's going to matter a lot more to teams when they're paying for the ability of a player to generate offense.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Just when you thought the /60 stats were getting unbearably stupid, here comes the "empty net points don't count" rhetoric.

There was a poster on the Canucks board whose hill to die on was the Sedins weren't any good cause too many of their points involved the other. I wonder if people like this hang out together and whip eachother into a frenzy with this crackpot lunacy.

 

[Apex Predator]

Not sure if you guys have been reading these recently, but someone has compiled a list of the top 40 players this past season for shooting and passing.

Whoever JfreshHockey is...

Turns out, Maythews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares are 4 of the best even strength players at what we want them to do: create goals.

And despite having Avery down season, Matthews finishes 1st in the shooting list and 4th in combination shooting and passing list.....

Nylander, after playing the year with Matthews for the most part, shoots up the ranking as well.

Must be a coincidence that Nylander becomes a much better offensive player riding shot gun with 34 for a year after a couple of good, but not great seasons playing with JT.


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I don't know who JFreshHockey, or UnpopularOpinionJake are (maybe same person), or what AllThreeZones is.

Just wanted to add to the data about Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares.

The 4 of them get a ton of shit from this idiot fanbase, but they have generally done what should have been expected of them over the last 7 seasons.

It's the entirety of the supporting cast that has shit the bed too much and too often (especially the goaltending and defenders 3-8).

Just when you thought the /60 stats were getting unbearably stupid, here comes the "empty net points don't count" rhetoric.

It’s insane lengths some posters are going.

 

[Leaf Fans]

You’re wrong. There were several fans who adored Dubas. They still do and and still post here about him. They aren’t even leaf’s fans but Dubas fans. It’s weird and they obviously have an agenda.

Adored is not a synonym for worship.

That’s been around for a bit, Kypreos is usually pretty close on these things.

If Matthews is Toronto this weekend, it would make sense that he signs ann extension and it’s announced this week.

If not, it could be a red flag.

It could be 13.5, but we don't know.

 

[authentic]

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It’s insane lengths some posters are going.

He's right though, we've been beaten by depth and goaltending more than the other teams stars outperformed ours

 

[pcruz]

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It’s insane lengths some posters are going.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that it hasn't been the core players on this team, specifically Matthews and Marner, that have been dragging the team down.

Since entering the league as rookies, the team's regular season scoring looks like this:

	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Shots	Blocked Shots	Hits	Points / Game Played
Marner	507	168	386	554	89	1333	261	276	1.09
Matthews	481	299	243	542	109	1904	443	307	1.13
Nylander	499	171	246	417	22	1398	133	120	.84
Tavares	360	155	199	354	9	1160	192	344	.98
Rielly	483	54	268	322	24	1147	618	418	.67
Hyman	329	82	97	179	72	669	181	449	.54
Kadri	235	80	80	160	-7	631	70	303	.68
Kerfoot	285	40	94	134	27	406	186	218	.47
Gardiner	226	17	108	125	52	338	250	181	.55
JvR	163	65	51	119	-1	486	52	102	.71
Bunting	161	46	66	112	48	349	39	170	.70
Bozak	159	29	69	98	5	299	54	88	.62
Brown	246	42	51	93	14	343	111	108	.38
Kapanen	193	41	49	90	9	361	47	228	.47
Marleau	164	43	41	84	-5	364	67	159	.51
Engvall	226	42	41	83	20	387	40	177	.37

The team's playoff scoring looks the same:

	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Shots	Blocked Shots	Hits	Points / Game Played
Marner	50	10	37	47	9	133	34	64	.94
Matthews	50	22	22	44	0	215	67	139	.88
Nylander	50	17	23	40	-1	149	18	33	.80
Rielly	50	11	26	37	12	126	95	83	.74
Tavares	31	11	11	22	-9	103	20	53	.71
Hyman	32	5	8	13	-4	75	18	94	.41
Kerfoot	30	4	9	13	5	41	30	45	.43
O'Reilly	11	3	6	9	-3	21	10	14	.82
Bozak	13	4	4	8	-1	30	4	26	.62
Muzzin	22	4	4	8	0	25	38	65	.36
JvR	13	5	2	7	-1	36	5	21	.54
Kapanen	25	4	3	7	-8	41	10	49	.28
Marleau	14	4	3	7	1	22	3	32	.5
Brodie	25	1	6	7	7	27	52	35	.28

Those 4 players, while playing the most games of course, take up a huge percentage of both offensive and defensive statistics the team has generated both in the regular season and in the playoffs.

If we assume that every goal scored has an average of 2.5 points associated with it, then those core 4 players have contributed the following percentage of the team's entire output over those same 7 seasons:

	Team Goals	Player Goals	%	Team Points	Player Points	%	Team Shots	Player Shots	%	Team Hits	Player Hits	%	Team Blocked Shots	Player Blocked Shots	%
Regular Season	1819	793	43.6%	4547.5	1867	41%	13764	5795	42.1%	10701	1047	9.8%	7180	1329	18.5%
Playoffs	138	60	43.5%	345	153	44.3%	1295	600	46.3%	1772	289	16.3%	835	139	16.6%

 

[LeafEgo]

That’s been around for a bit, Kypreos is usually pretty close on these things.

If Matthews is Toronto this weekend, it would make sense that he signs ann extension and it’s announced this week.

If not, it could be a red flag.

There could be a delay simply because of his performance last year.

If Mattys camp is not interested in discounting their ask right now as a result of the down year what value do we get in signing him now, and not later, once we have confirmed that it was in fact an abnormal one year performance?

If it turns out there are very real concerns with his wrist, or something of the sort, the price point might be very different in 6-12 months. If he's asking for full value already, we don't lose anything if he returns to form.

 

[Stephen]

No, they're not. There can be all kinds of scenarios for goalie in or out. But one thing the goalie in scenarios all have in common is that there is a goalie there, in the way of that puck going in the net, which inherently makes it massively harder to do.

And considering that 99% of the game is played with a goalie in the net, and literally anybody can throw a puck into an empty net, that's going to matter a lot more to teams when they're paying for the ability of a player to generate offense.

When you are out there defensively to kill a 6 on 5 with an empty net, you are basically killing a penalty with the penalty of icing, so a shot into an EN from distance carries risk. We've all previously heard you talk about the value of penalty killing re: Marner on repeat, so I'm sure you be applying some of that appreciation for successfully killing off an EN, aka by scoring a goal even if it isn't a direct translation.

Finally, it's not so much that we're having a celebration of EN goals, as they don't really need to be discredited as a part of the game as any other kind of goal.

 

[keonsbitterness]

When you are out there defensively to kill a 6 on 5 with an empty net, you are basically killing a penalty with the penalty of icing, so a shot into an EN from distance carries risk. We've all previously heard you talk about the value of penalty killing re: Marner on repeat, so I'm sure you be applying some of that appreciation for successfully killing off an EN, aka by scoring a goal even if it isn't a direct translation.

Finally, it's not so much that we're having a celebration of EN goals, as they don't really need to be discredited as a part of the game as any other kind of goal.

He's also wrong that literally anybody can throw a puck into an empty net. Some players struggle with it.

 

[therealkoho]

Hmm, you've just described a big group of people with a wide range of differing opinions... about a team that hasn't won in nearly 6 decades. I honestly think it's a miracle we have such a big fanbase and community despite all that. The Leafs and its players should feel lucky to have us all.

Leafs Nation is the Yin to LeaFlands Yang

It's a dichotomy that is at once a real blessing and a relentless curse.

All fanbases are like this but not to the crtical extent that the Leafs fanbase practices.

But there is no doubt it is the largest in the NHL

 

[therealkoho]

If he were asking to get paid on par with his peers we wouldn't be having this conversation

A small point, but the one that carries most if not all the weight.

 

[Nineteen67]

There could be a delay simply because of his performance last year.

If Mattys camp is not interested in discounting their ask right now as a result of the down year what value do we get in signing him now, and not later, once we have confirmed that it was in fact an abnormal one year performance?

If it turns out there are very real concerns with his wrist, or something of the sort, the price point might be very different in 6-12 months. If he's asking for full value already, we don't lose anything if he returns to form.

Or he may decide he’ll sign elsewhere

 

[therealkoho]

In fairness, Kypreos is a moron with questionable sources at best

The guy practically lives at the Leafs offices, golf's with active agents and management and is a card carrying alumnus. Cmon Syph you should be above disingenuousness

 

[therealkoho]

Aho had 3 goals and 5 points into an empty net this past season. That's the lowest amount he's gotten in a season in the past 5 years, and yet it's still more than Nylander (2 goals, 3 points) had in Nylander's career high season in empty net goals and points. Over their careers, Nylander has gotten 5 goals and 7 points into an empty net. Aho has 26 goals and 41 points into an empty net. It's actually a relatively significant proportion of Aho's overall goal and point production.

That's largely a myth that gets perpetuated because centers just tend to be better players. If there is any impact, it's historically minimal and inconsistent.
Wingers actually heavily populate the history of high-end contracts.

It's also telling you that Willy mostly watches the other guys play 6v5 because of the let's call it the quality of his ability or lack thereof to play competent and dedicated defence.

 

[SkeeterPumpkinEater]

Auston Matthews future Arizona captain. Circa 2026 coyote f***in wagon boys

 

[LeafEgo]

Or he may decide he’ll sign elsewhere

Yeah, now or later, with his NMC he does need to want to play in Toronto, and ideally at a fair price.

Nobody knows what's really going on his head so I just look at what he has said - he's happy here and wants to stay.

Just think the delay could be about last year's performance, with both sides weighing risk.

 

[Arzak]

He's right though, we've been beaten by depth and goaltending more than the other teams stars outperformed ours

How can you say it without laughing? You don't see how our stars and our depth are connected?

We have no depth due to our stars eating all the cap! It was all their overpayments or supporting cast. They choose $$$, now they need to perform with what they have.