News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Hellcat]

Well that's just pure bias right there. He'd be #2 on at least Colorado, Pittsburgh, Tampa, and Vegas.

I mean yea every team wants every good player, but thats just not how things work

One season removed from a Rocket Richard, league MVP award and he would be 2nd on half of the teams? A year ago people were debating if he was the best player in the world, the guy has a "down" year with 1.15 points per game and now you think he's not even top 15 in the world? Sure lets go with your theory.

Not for nothing but the guy is on a higher goals per game career pace than Ovie, who is soon to be the greatest goal scorer of all time but yeah lets go with 16th best center in the league, or I guess its now adjusted to 6th best center in the league. Silliness, just silly.

 

[JKG33]

One season removed from a Rocket Richard, league MVP award and he would be 2nd on half of the teams? A year ago people were debating if he was the best player in the world, the guy has a "down" year with 1.15 points per game and now you think he's not even top 15 in the world? Sure lets go with your theory.

Not for nothing but the guy is on a higher goals per game career pace than Ovie, who is soon to be the greatest goal scorer of all time but yeah lets go with 16th best center in the league, or I guess its now adjusted to 6th best center in the league. Silliness, just silly.

You're conveniently forgetting those are 3 of the defending champions who aren't going to unseat their guys for a playoff downgrade.

Also Matthews thus far is playing in a much higher scoring era than Ovi did for most of his career.

 

[Hellcat]

You're conveniently forgetting those are 3 of the defending champions who aren't going to unseat their guys for a playoff downgrade.

Also Matthews thus far is playing in a much higher scoring era than Ovi did for most of his career.

You're forgetting that two of the three defending cup GM's are most player unloyal ruthless GM's in the league. Sackic is probably pretty happy with MacKinnon, I bet Tre is pretty happy with Matthews. So now we have whittled down half of the league won't want Matty to one team wont want Matty and its a tie ...cool

So if we take your theory that its easier for Matty to score, then Crosby > McDavid?

 

[notbias]

With a quick count ive come up with 12 that either wouldnt want him or cant afford him without serious maneuvering. Im sure thered more.
CAR, COL, EDM, FLA, LA, NJ, NYI, NYR, PIT, TB, VGK, WSH

I think they'd make the moves... he is the best player on all but 1 (maybe 2) of those teams.

 

[JKG33]

You're forgetting that two of the three defending cup GM's are most player unloyal ruthless GM's in the league. Sackic is probably pretty happy with MacKinnon, I bet Tre is pretty happy with Matthews. So now we have whittled down half of the league won't want Matty to one team wont want Matty and its a tie ...cool

So if we take your theory that its easier for Matty to score, then Crosby > McDavid?

I'm not sure what Matthews has done to impress Tre in the month he's been GM but ok

 

[Despote]

McDavid and Drai have horrendous impacts on shots against, goals against, and high danger chances/goals against with nearly everyone they play with on their team.

This is blatantly false. McDavid is a positive defensive player by every advanced metric.

 

[Martin Skoula]

This is blatantly false. McDavid is a positive defensive player by every advanced metric.

View attachment 732001

I’ve gone into it in more detail before and I don’t want to dig through all the numbers again but TLDR:

At ES all scores

McDrai on the ice: 4.09 GF/60 3.07 GA/60
McD no Drai: 3.08 GF/60 2.72 GA/60
Drai no McD: 3.15 GF/60 3.45 GA/60
Neither one: 2.42 GF/60 1.97 GA/60

Yes, gamescore and situation impacts influence these but you can also use your eyes to clearly see McDrai play riverboat gambling hockey. When they’re not on the ice, the Oilers are actually not a tire fire defensively. McD is quite a bit better than Drai and has had seasons in the past where he was dominant on both sides of the ice, but last season was not one of those.

For comparison here’s Matthews + Marner last year:

M + M together: 3.67 GF 2.22 GA
Matthews no Marner: 4.16 GF 1.68 GA
Marner no Matthews: 3.08 GF 1.89 GA
Neither: 2.13 GF 2.35 GA

 

[Despote]

I’ve gone into it in more detail before and I don’t want to dig through all the numbers again but TLDR:

At ES all situations

McDrai on the ice: 4.09 GF/60 3.07 GA/60
McD no Drai: 3.08 GF/60 2.72 GA/60
Drai no McD: 3.15 GF/60 3.45 GA/60
Neither one: 2.42 GF/60 1.97 GA/60

Yes, gamescore and situation impacts influence these but you can also use your eyes to clearly see McDrai play riverboat gambling hockey. When they’re not on the ice, the Oilers are actually not a tire fire defensively. McD is quite a bit better than Drai and has had seasons in the past where he was dominant on both sides of the ice, but last season was not one of those.

For comparison here’s Matthews + Marner last year:

M + M together: 3.67 GF 2.22 GA
Matthews no Marner: 4.16 GF 1.68 GA
Marner no Matthews: 3.08 GF 1.89 GA
Neither: 2.13 GF 2.35 GA

You have to normalize for goaltending. Goals against is way too fluctuating (Matthews was better defensively in 21-22 than 22-23, but his goals against was much worse because there was a huge difference in the goaltending he received)

 

[Throw More Waffles]

They're already signing all of their players based on league-wide comparables.

League-wide comparables eh? So with what Aho just signed for, what should Nylander get?

 

[Martin Skoula]

You have to normalize for goaltending. Goals against is way too fluctuating (Matthews was better defensively in 21-22 than 22-23, but his goals against was much worse because there was a huge difference in the goaltending he received)

Are the rest of the Oilers getting a different goalie when McDrai get off the ice? I don’t know why this so painful for people to admit, McDrai were instructed to cheat for offense by their coach last year, their defensive impacts were a lot worse than they were in previous years and the tradeoff is that they put up stupid point totals. It’s a valid strategy when you don’t have a goalie worth shit, I don’t understand why we have to bury our heads in the sand about it.

I’m not comparing M+M’s GF/GA numbers to McDrai’s, just how they compare to their own team when they’re not on the ice. They drive more offense while giving up less, McDrai drive a lot more offense while also giving up an extra goal a game.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Well that has got to be one of the dumbest strategies I've seen and around here, that is saying a lot.
You set up a strawman and then blame the strawman for doing something it has no power to do.
How can people make sense of this barf of a proposition?
At the end of the day, the team decides the value of their players, not the players. You don't tell people to walk just because they think they deserve more.
You give them an offer you weigh the opposing argument and you then stand firm at an acceptable number which might be the same or might be modified.
It really isnt difficult stuff.

If it were said to Leaf fans during the first 12 futile years of the cap era where guys like Stajan were or best players "Hey, so, the leafs draft a guy and he wins back to back richards and a hart trophy and a year later becomes a ufa at age 26, what do you pay him on that ufa contract?

Know what every leaf fan back then would have said? "WHATEVER THE GOD DAMN HELL HE f***ING WELL WANTS!!!!! That's what every leaf fan in the universe would have said.

I also am very VERY vocal about the lack of playoff success. I'm almost a caricature of a meme about it for how much I talk about it. But I always blame the first series disasters as the unprecedented psychotic experiment of half the cap on 4 forwards. This is why I think we pay Matthews as a superstar (and I did preface that by saying only if there is an explanation for last years mediocrity that isn't a chronic injury) and assess Marner and Nylander from there. If they want more unprecedented dramatic overpayments based on Matthews contracts, move on. If they accept being signed at fair market value based on direct comparables. You keep them. It's very very simple.

 

[Despote]

Are the rest of the Oilers getting a different goalie when McDrai get off the ice? I don’t know why this so painful for people to admit, McDrai were instructed to cheat for offense by their coach last year, their defensive impacts were a lot worse than they were in previous years and the tradeoff is that they put up stupid point totals. It’s a valid strategy when you don’t have a goalie worth shit, I don’t understand why we have to bury our heads in the sand about it.

It's variance and happens in hockey all the time. Every time it has been attempted to measure any correlation between defending teams skaters on ice and goals saved above/below expected, the result has been a 0.

xga works substantially better to weed out the noise.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It's variance and happens in hockey all the time. Every time it has been attempted to measure any correlation between defending teams skaters on ice and goals saved above/below expected, the result has been a 0.

xga works substantially better to weed out the noise.

I last checked before they got Ekholm so it might not be as bad now but xGA went up, HD chances against, HD goals against, shots against, shot attempts against, etc all went up across the board when one or both was on the ice. This isn’t crazy, you can see it happen in real time when they rag the puck around the offensive zone for a full shift and don’t backcheck so hard. Drai is just shitty defensively but McDavid has been good to elite in past seasons where he got 100-120 points. Do you think he just got 30+ points better overnight while forgetting how to play D, or do you think his coach may be deploying him differently to compensate for their broken starter? It’s not even a bad plan, clearly it worked pretty well for them this year.

 

[Nineteen67]

Imagine Clark with that wrister with the sticks we have now? Jesus he'd kill a goalie, shoot the puck right through his chest ...

Wendel is the best Leaf in my lifetime. I showed my sons clips of him to help develop them as to what it takes to be a man.

On a side note, we were so lucky to have Bob Cole and Harry Neal.

 

[JKG33]

I last checked before they got Ekholm so it might not be as bad now but xGA went up, HD chances against, HD goals against, shots against, shot attempts against, etc all went up across the board when one or both was on the ice. This isn’t crazy, you can see it happen in real time when they rag the puck around the offensive zone for a full shift and don’t backcheck so hard. Drai is just shitty defensively but McDavid has been good to elite in past seasons where he got 100-120 points. Do you think he just got 30+ points better overnight while forgetting how to play D, or do you think his coach may be deploying him differently to compensate for their broken starter? It’s not even a bad plan, clearly it worked pretty well for them this year.

The thing that makes me laugh is, you don't need a bunch of fancy stat nerds to come to this conclusion. You can tell they're brutal defensively just by watching an Oilers game

 

[Stephen]

If it were said to Leaf fans during the first 12 futile years of the cap era where guys like Stajan were or best players "Hey, so, the leafs draft a guy and he wins back to back richards and a hart trophy and a year later becomes a ufa at age 26, what do you pay him on that ufa contract?

Know what every leaf fan back then would have said? "WHATEVER THE GOD DAMN HELL HE f***ING WELL WANTS!!!!! That's what every leaf fan in the universe would have said.

I also am very VERY vocal about the lack of playoff success. I'm almost a caricature of a meme about it for how much I talk about it. But I always blame the first series disasters as the unprecedented psychotic experiment of half the cap on 4 forwards. This is why I think we pay Matthews as a superstar (and I did preface that by saying only if there is an explanation for last years mediocrity that isn't a chronic injury) and assess Marner and Nylander from there. If they want more unprecedented dramatic overpayments based on Matthews contracts, move on. If they accept being signed at fair market value based on direct comparables. You keep them. It's very very simple.

Keeping Matthews at a big premium is the price of doing business this round, and you'll get a range of opinions on how happy people are to do so. But generally feels necessary unless you want to retool and rebuild.

However, if Matthews next contract is going to trigger an in-house arms race for the next big overpayments, would we be much better off moving off one, or both of Nylander or Marner and avoid the headaches? In the most dramatic case, not paying future Marner $12 million, future Nylander $10 million and expired Tavares $11 gives Toronto $33 million to spend on ANYTHING they want. If you're looking for change and to do things differently, that's a lot of flexibility. At the end of 2024-25, you could be calling Rantanen and Draisaitl up on July 1...

 

[Martin Skoula]

The thing that makes me laugh is, you don't need a bunch of fancy stat nerds to come to this conclusion. You can tell they're brutal defensively just by watching an Oilers game

Specifically you can tell it’s by the coach’s design, not just them not knowing how to play the game. Drai is what is he is, but you can’t tell me McDavid is personally choosing to be lazy defensively if you know anything about his mentality towards the game. I’m sure he’d rather be a 120 point Selke threat that wins every matchup than a 150+ point floater that hopes to go even against his ES matchup.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

With a quick count ive come up with 12 that either wouldnt want him or cant afford him without serious maneuvering. Im sure thered more.
CAR, COL, EDM, FLA, LA, NJ, NYI, NYR, PIT, TB, VGK, WSH

You can't come up with ONE team that wouldn't want him, let alone 12.

 

[Stephen]

Considering Clark has precisely one season with more than 60 points you’d have a hell of a time arguing he’s better than Matthews at anything but hitting or fighting. If you score more goals than the other guy has points in all but one season, AINEC becomes appropriate.

“But but but the regular season doesn’t matter, Clark was a playoff beast!” you may say until you notice he scores goals and points at a worse rate than playoff ghost Matthews. The man had two good playoff runs worth talking about in his entire career.

Gilmour, Keon, Sittler, Sundin, being better all time sure, but let’s try to at least pretend to be realistic here.

Wendel Clark escapes easy classification though. Not a lot of guys represented Leafs Nation on exactly the emotional frequency on the ice as Clark did back in the day. That connection goes well beyond any kind of statistical measure or actual achievement personal or otherwise.

Matthews is a far superior player and talent but it's not easy to really compare the two. On the emotional energy level, there's a certain buzz and energy that comes with a big Auston Matthews night. But coinciding with last year's down season, it felt like Matthews lost a bit of that emotional resonance.

 

[pcruz]

Specifically you can tell it’s by the coach’s design, not just them not knowing how to play the game. Drai is what is he is, but you can’t tell me McDavid is personally choosing to be lazy defensively if you know anything about his mentality towards the game. I’m sure he’d rather be a 120 point Selke threat that wins every matchup than a 150+ point floater that hopes to go even against his ES matchup.

I don't think he's getting as many pp points again.

In a more rounded role, McDavid is putting up 120 points consistently and scoring 40-45 goals over 82 games.

The fact that Matthews plays that well rounded game (maybe even a little too defensive at times to compensate for Nylander) and can be counted on to put up 50-60 goals and 100 points over the same 82 games, means that he is almost as valuable a player to the team as McDavid.

In Toronto, it's not even a debate as to who stirs the pot, Marner is a phenomenal complementary piece, but it's the Matthews show. He is bigger, stronger, scores more, is more responsible defensively, and plays centre.

There is just no comparing the 2.


If Matthews were allowed to pk, he'd be a perennial Selke finalist.

It's stupid that pk is a determination for that award. The player doesn't have a say on whether he kills penalties or not, that's a coaching decision.

Wendel Clark escapes easy classification though. Not a lot of guys represented Leafs Nation on exactly the emotional frequency on the ice as Clark did back in the day. That connection goes well beyond any kind of statistical measure or actual achievement personal or otherwise.

Matthews is a far superior player and talent but it's not easy to really compare the two. On the emotional energy level, there's a certain buzz and energy that comes with a big Auston Matthews night. But coinciding with last year's down season, it felt like Matthews lost a bit of that emotional resonance.

This is by far the strongest indictment on the memory span of the typical Leaf fan, they're about as smart as a squirrel.


It's accurate, which is the sad part.

 

[JKG33]

You'd think Matthews was Bergeron the way some people here are pumping up his defensive game

 

[Stephen]

I don't think he's getting as many pp points again.

In a more rounded role, McDavid is putting up 120 points consistently and scoring 40-45 goals over 82 games.

The fact that Matthews plays that well rounded game (maybe even a little too defensive at times to compensate for Nylander) and can be counted on to put up 50-60 goals and 100 points over the same 82 games, means that he is almost as valuable a player to the team as McDavid.

In Toronto, it's not even a debate as to who stirs the pot, Marner is a phenomenal complementary piece, but it's the Matthews show. He is bigger, stronger, scores more, is more responsible defensively, and plays centre.

There is just no comparing the 2.


If Matthews were allowed to pk, he'd be a perennial Selke finalist.

It's stupid that pk is a determination for that award. The player doesn't have a say on whether he kills penalties or not, that's a coaching decision.



This is by far the strongest indictment on the memory span of the typical Leaf fan, they're about as smart as a squirrel.


It's accurate, which is the sad part.

I think it’s just a reflection of a player having a down season. Hopefully this isn’t a trend.

 

[Evilhomer]

I

Wendel Clark escapes easy classification though. Not a lot of guys represented Leafs Nation on exactly the emotional frequency on the ice as Clark did back in the day. That connection goes well beyond any kind of statistical measure or actual achievement personal or otherwise.

Matthews is a far superior player and talent but it's not easy to really compare the two. On the emotional energy level, there's a certain buzz and energy that comes with a big Auston Matthews night. But coinciding with last year's down season, it felt like Matthews lost a bit of that emotional resonance.

I think most people on this board didn't watch Clark play in his prime, during those brief periods where he wasn't beset by some pretty debilitating injuries. In his first two seasons in the league, he was Eric Lindros before Eric Lindros existed.

 

[IPS]

This is by far the strongest indictment on the memory span of the typical Leaf fan, they're about as smart as a squirrel.


It's accurate, which is the sad part.

I get it that Matthews is our guy but dude, be realistic.

How much are we going to keep blaming the lack of PP time for the reason Matthews can't come close to McDavid in production? When the Leafs do actually get PP time, they really don't do much with it. Matthews is not that elite on the PP, it's actually something he could stand to improve. Time and time again our PP completely shits the bed in the playoffs.

 

[pcruz]

I think it’s just a reflection of a player having a down season. Hopefully this isn’t a trend.

One could digest that as a reasonable explanation.

One could, but then he or she would have to have forgotten how this same fanbase turned on other players in the past:

Phil went from carrying a pathetic team to an unexpected playoff series against Boston, to being the "culprit" behind one of the stupidest and most self-righteous, self-absorbed crises in hockey - salutegate. He was summarily walked out of town and we paid Pitt to have him win 2 Cups for them.

Before Phil, it was Joffrey (captain Loop) Lupul. The fans went from "he's a decent player" to "he should be captain" to "he's a complete never-was".

Anyone remember the Reim-minister of Defense? Or Optimus Reim!

Kaberle went from an all time great to getting booed.

Mats went through the most pathetic and embarrassing ordeal I've ever seen in sports. The man literally wanted to fulfill his contract with the team he loved, and the fans wanted him gone for a futures package (likely a late 1st round pick) that had little chance of being anything good.

The Muskoka 5.... players who were offered contracts by the team with certain conditions to them, only to be reviled by the fanbase who still know them by that moniker.


You'll excuse me if I have little to no patience with this fanbase in their yo-yo evaluation of players, or of their love for the same.

It's a franchise with a huge number of fans, and a very diverse spectrum of people - in terms of race, ethnicity, gender, age, etc.
It's also a franchise with a huge number of loud, moronic fans who have been utterly spoiled with great talents they have grown too accustomed to and have forgotten how to appreciate.

The last time this team had a player in the same league as Matthews, was Mats of the 2003 season. That's 20 f***ing years ago!
And Mats never had a down season of 40 goals, 85 points in 70 + games where he was lambasted for his lack of performance. That was an average season for him.....


I can make the same argument for Mitch, but Mogilny was just as good as Marner was, despite being old and washed up. Even Phil never was the complete player Marner is, despite playing as well offensively on a much worse team, and being way more electric.