Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Matthews last contract on 5 years term at the 4th highest Cap hit% based on these 3 ELC years was unprecedented.
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Is there a NHL comparable contract that supports $11.634 mil and 14.6 CH% (4th highest) and only 5 years (including 4 RFA years) on his previous deal?
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Its easy to pick out the anomaly here, so what makes people so certain after taking the Leafs organization to task on his last deal, particularly to set up this next contract at an even higher AAV, that history is not going to repeat?.
If people believe that Matthews is just going to take a slight bump up to $12.6 mil (MacKinnon new rate) then why not just factor that into his last deal if its just +$1 mil per year ($3 mil total) more AAV for the next 3 years and signed a 8 year term originally? If you spread that $3 mil over 8 years that = + $375k more AVV per year above his current $11.634 mil.
In terms of his RFA deal - he ended up with a lesser cap hit% than Malkin did and a greater cap % than Toews along with comparable term to both.
Which to me is basically where one would expect him to go.
I don't see anything suggesting that we should expect Matthews to ask for 15 million. Even if the cap increases all the way to 88 million by the 2024-2025 season, that would be a caphit % of 17%, which is what Crosby got with his first major contract.