News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[therealkoho]

I am worried about his injuries, he seems to always be nursing something.

So you sayin he never got off Mamacitas teat?

I don't believe you will see Leafs extend past MAC AAV .. bottom line that's it .. so this will be an 8 year max deal .. and Matty's reps know da score here .. if they come in above then they may sign and trade him too

So they should just ignore the NMC that comes into being July 1 2023?

 

[ToneDog]

That's just an excuse for robbing the Leafs blind...did Pastrnak took an extra $1 million from the Bruins on his recent contract? There are only a handful of no-state-tax states.

The best Bruins player/best winger/Hart finalist, Pasta took less money than the highest paid winger, Panarin and Pasta >>>>> Panarin. And some will claim he did not take a discount. 61 goal/113 point Pasta settled for 250K more than 30 goal/99 point Marner and agreed to 8 year deal.

 

[Da Mash]

My hope is that AM, Nylander and Marner take a hometown discount. They will make up the differences in endorsements and they will have a life long career with Toronto.

I really do think the guys love it here and would like to finish their careers here together.

Hopefully they listen to their hearts and not their agents.

It would make a great story and have some positive vibes for this organization IMHO

 

[therealkoho]

Won't matter. Just wait until the Yotes relocate to Houston.

The mains be like:

"mATTHEWS hATES tORONTO hE gONNA bOLT tO tHE hOUSTON f***ING aEROS."

The Bett365Man said the other day that there will be no relocation of teams and the league wasn't currently entertaining any expansion.

So there's that

 

[Gallagbi]

13mil is probably my max too but if it is for 5 years, it can't be more than Mack.
To me, 5 yrs max is 12.5m
8yrs can be 13m

Thats mainly bc he is getting paid 11.634mil and the jump is less than 1m or 1.5m.

Why would you want to pay more to lock him up from his early to mid 30s? If anything id flip your numbers and pay more for the 5 years

 

[Trapper]

My hope is that AM, Nylander and Marner take a hometown discount. They will make up the differences in endorsements and they will have a life long career with Toronto.

I really do think the guys love it here and would like to finish their careers here together.

Hopefully they listen to their hearts and not their agents.

It would make a great story and have some positive vibes for this organization IMHO

I wouldn’t count on it. Did they not love it here last time?
If they loved it so much they would have taken a discount, tried to win it all with more depth/money, maybe become champions and then take the big UFA salary for mission accomplished.

 

[therealkoho]

Gotta love Leaf fans, it's like we are sitting in the negotiation room and deciding how much of OUR money to give him. The league, NHLPA and owners going to have their eyes all over this one...this is a huge challenge, and will set the bar going forward. Anyone predicting the outcome is just throwing turd on the wall to see what sticks. The more outcomes i predict the better the chance of being right. One thing we will know, is Mathews really a team player and all about the team or will it be about himself. From what i have seen he is showing he is about the team, so we have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he will be a Leaf at a reasonable contract. But I know if he goes for the money, i will still respect his decision, anyone hating on him if he does doesn't understand that these players don't play forever and have to cash in with what time they have playing. Also, it's damn hard to win a cup in this league, why risk cashing in for a slim chance at winning a cup, i will understand with whatever decision he makes.

Just wondering what is it exactly that you've seen that makes him seem like a team guy and not a me guy?

I'm a zealot when it comes to my Leafs and I've seen nothing that makes me believe he's a team guy.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

So you sayin he never got off Mamacitas teat?


So they should just ignore the NMC that comes into being July 1 2023?

I wouldn't .. but with Leafs I have learned over da years they can vastly outspend all comers so if he goes to FA and someone offers 15M well then Leafs offer 16M and its over .. bottom line Leafs are only team in league who could triple their player compensation and just continue on .. Matty strikes me as a kid who is about da $$$ first and foremost

 

[therealkoho]

Thered be a lineup for him at 13x5

Excellent I sure hope that who ever is the GM gets a sweet retool pkg back

 

[Mess]

To be fair, Matthews first contract already did value him as a Hart calibre player, so I don't really see any need to give him a big raise.

McDavid won a Hart/Art Ross as a teenager before he signed for 8 X 12.5M. Matthews 5 X 11.6M is more or less the same value (ie for us to have signed him to an 8 year contract, the caphit would have obviously needed to be higher, and thus would have been in McDavid range).

You're 100% correct, but the Matthews contract is so bad (because of length) in comparison to McDavid that your comment doesn't do it justice.

Lets break Matthews current deal done pointing out a few factors ... Matthews deal was 5 years at $58.17 mil with an AAV of $11.634 mil based on averaging. However that doesn't tell the real story because Matthews deal was based on the 1st X 4 years were RFA years and only year #5 at UFA rates. That is huge because RFA years are cost controllable while an UFA year is set at market value supply and demand.

When signed the McDavid contract based on Hart/Art Ross first was broken down as .. 4 X RFA years @ $10 mil AAV + 4 years UFA @ $15 mil (on average) = $100 mil / 8 years = $12.5 mil..

When Leafs tied to re-sign Matthews this is what was being reported by Elliote Friedman.

According to Friedman, the Leafs wanted to sign Matthews to a three-year bridge deal that would’ve taken him one year away from unrestricted free agency. However, Matthews’ camp was seeking a $9M annual hit, which the Leafs weren’t interested in doing.



In the end as we know, Mathews finally agreed to a five-year contract back in February. The deal is worth $58.17 million, meaning Matthews will have an annual salary cap hit of $11.634 million beginning in 2019-20 and running through the 2023-24 campaign.

So the Leafs were not willing to give Matthews $9 mil AAV for his RFA bridge years. However if you insert that # he asked for RFA years (first 4 years of contract) to match McDavid template.

Matthews 1st X 4 years (@ $9 mil) = $36 mil and to solve for the 1 UFA year cost based on $58.17 mil total = $22.17 mil for 1 X UFA year based on 5 year term (It had to be 8 years to make any sense at $11.634 mil). Even if Leafs agreed to give Matthews $10 mil per for his 4 RFA years = $40 mil that still makes his 1 X UFA cost $18.17 mil.

Dubas got played sooo badly that the Matthews contract broke the wheel and sent shockwaves through the NHL, and now because he only gave away 1 UFA year he gets to double dip and sell those missing 3 UFA years from his original deal contract that should have been 8 years,

 

[Suntouchable13]

My hope is that AM, Nylander and Marner take a hometown discount. They will make up the differences in endorsements and they will have a life long career with Toronto.

I really do think the guys love it here and would like to finish their careers here together.

Hopefully they listen to their hearts and not their agents.

It would make a great story and have some positive vibes for this organization IMHO

Why do you like them so much? What have they done? 1 measly playoff series win in 7 years. Couldn’t care less about any of them. I hope we lose a couple of them actually. But go ahead, and build statues for one series win.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

So you sayin he never got off Mamacitas teat?

Do you blame him?

 

[nuck]

what if the number only gets presented on July 1st when his NMC, Marner's NMC and Nylander's NTC kicks in, what options does MLSE have at that point. To add to this, if Matthews says he will only sign if Nylander & Marner return, what do you do ? The position the organization currently sits in is a direct result of Dubas' decisions, so we can all thank him for that.

No question the 1st contracts were botched but the way out is there. If AM says he will only resign if the other two do its an easy decision, you trade him. This club has not had near enough success to keep following the plan. I honestly don't think that is a threat, it seems like everybody understands this was one failure too many. More like he will want too much money. Playoffs aside I think I like peak Matthews more than peak MacKinnon but if he again insists on McDavid being his comp rather the next tier down how much can you indulge him? He earned his last contract maybe 2 seasons out of 5 so how much of a raise does that get him? MacKinnon has been a far more reliable point producer and signed off at $12..6

If Austin wants to be a Leaf then waiting till the absolute 11th hour makes no sense. It doesn't do anything for him but it does screw with the club. He has to understand that if its getting too big it will take some time to digest. If that was actually his stance I would be looking for trading partners immediately and be prepared to say adios if I received a number that I felt was unreasonable. You can't have your players run your team like that. I would expect his number well in advance of the drop dead date. At closer to $12.6 you resign him and if the ask is closer to $14M it is time to see where he really wants to play.

I like the other two guys quite a but I expect Willie's ask will be somewhere north of $9M and he isn't worth that. Take him out of the mix by trade and there is room for the other two.

With Mitch having two years left but with a pending NM they have no idea if he is going to squeeze the shit out of them again. He's not worth more than Pastrnak who outscored the next best Bruin by 46 points but that doesn't mean he won't expect Matthews money. If he is dealt they get more back than for Willie and can afford to slightly overpay the other two and still cover Murray's buyout.

There is a case for moving all three which is predicated on the idea that the players ran the show in the last contract cycle and that was very bad for the club. While they all showed a lot of value they were better paid then most of their comps and none of them can point to prior deals like those signed by Draisaitl, Pastrnak and MacKinnon where the player blew their compensation level out of the water.

As others have noted, top end salaries do not convert to playoff success. There is nobody making more than $10M left in the playoffs and there were no $10M players on Tampa or Colorado's Cup winners. Maybe they need to select the player who is going to be their game breaker and build around that one guy and a single slightly inflated contract.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Why do you like them so much? What have they done? 1 measly playoff series win in 7 years. Couldn’t care less about any of them. I hope we lose a couple of them actually. But go ahead, and build statues for one series win.

You can tell when people are almost more attached to the players than to the team. Maybe it's the social media generation, I dunno?

No question the 1st contracts were botched but the way out is there. If AM says he will only resign if the other two do its an easy decision, you trade him. This club has not had near enough success to keep following the plan. I honestly don't think that is a threat, it seems like everybody understands this was one failure too many. More like he will want too much money. Playoffs aside I think I like peak Matthews more than peak MacKinnon but if he again insists on McDavid being his comp rather the next tier down how much can you indulge him? He earned his last contract maybe 2 seasons out of 5 so how much of a raise does that get him? MacKinnon has been a far more reliable point producer and signed off at $12..6

If Austin wants to be a Leaf then waiting till the absolute 11th hour makes no sense. It doesn't do anything for him but it does screw with the club. He has to understand that if its getting too big it will take some time to digest. If that was actually his stance I would be looking for trading partners immediately and be prepared to say adios if I received a number that I felt was unreasonable. You can't have your players run your team like that. I would expect his number well in advance of the drop dead date. At closer to $12.6 you resign him and if the ask is closer to $14M it is time to see where he really wants to play.

I like the other two guys quite a but I expect Willie's ask will be somewhere north of $9M and he isn't worth that. Take him out of the mix by trade and there is room for the other two.

With Mitch having two years left but with a pending NM they have no idea if he is going to squeeze the shit out of them again. He's not worth more than Pastrnak who outscored the next best Bruin by 46 points but that doesn't mean he won't expect Matthews money. If he is dealt they get more back than for Willie and can afford to slightly overpay the other two and still cover Murray's buyout.

There is a case for moving all three which is predicated on the idea that the players ran the show in the last contract cycle and that was very bad for the club. While they all showed a lot of value they were better paid then most of their comps and none of them can point to prior deals like those signed by Draisaitl, Pastrnak and MacKinnon where the player blew their compensation level out of the water.

As others have noted, top end salaries do not convert to playoff success. There is nobody making more than $10M left in the playoffs and there were no $10M players on Tampa or Colorado's Cup winners. Maybe they need to select the player who is going to be their game breaker and build around that one guy and a single slightly inflated contract.

Great post.

 

[hamzarocks]

Let's break this down a little

1. Would you rather pay Tavares 11M the next 2 years or have him becoming a UFA now? My votes UFA
2. If you think Matthews is overpaid at that number why do you want to extend it for the 32-34 yo years? Do you think he'll be a better value then?

Generally teams cant lock up UFA's for those numbers their forced to overpay on the backend. If we can avoid that, why wouldnt we?

Tavares as a UFA now assuming he signs back with the leafs is getting 6-8 years and 8-10M which is again a poor deal

I'm much happier to have JT for 2 more years at 11M then say a pre-2013 contract where hed be at like 8.5M but for another 6 years

As a UFA 32 year Tavares still carries the name brand of being a 1C and teams would give him near max term to obtain him to plug into their top 6. Kadri got 7x7 at 31/32 and hes not as good as JT. JT now as a UFA would be getting an absolutely gross deal which he'd have to be bought out from by year 4 of the deal

Having yo pay Matthews 12-13M again at 32 age to 38/39 is a huge no

Get him locked 26-34 and then move on from him clean if leafs havent won anything by then. If they have then he can have a 3 year max contract as his reward.

 

[Brobust]

One path the leafs may take is pay whatever it takes to get Matthews signed for 8 years and then do a soft reset until the Tavares contract ends. Not full tank mode, but going for WC1/2 spots rather than 100+ point seasons.

 

[Trapper]

One path the leafs may take is pay whatever it takes to get Matthews signed for 8 years and then do a soft reset until the Tavares contract ends. Not full tank mode, but going for WC1/2 spots rather than 100+ point seasons.

A lot of the other teams that eventually won did the same.
Tampa took a step back, drafted Drouin and traded him for Sergechev.
Colorado took a step back and drafted Makar.
Carolina drafting Svechnikov.
Sometimes you have to redesign and restock.

 

[Gallagbi]

Tavares as a UFA now assuming he signs back with the leafs is getting 6-8 years and 8-10M which is again a poor deal

I'm much happier to have JT for 2 more years at 11M then say a pre-2013 contract where hed be at like 8.5M but for another 6 years

As a UFA 32 year Tavares still carries the name brand of being a 1C and teams would give him near max term to obtain him to plug into their top 6. Kadri got 7x7 at 31/32 and hes not as good as JT. JT now as a UFA would be getting an absolutely gross deal which he'd have to be bought out from by year 4 of the deal

Having yo pay Matthews 12-13M again at 32 age to 38/39 is a huge no

Get him locked 26-34 and then move on from him clean if leafs havent won anything by then. If they have then he can have a 3 year max contract as his reward.

You walk from JT at those numbers, so you dont have to worry about those numbers

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Sure he will. What happens if he has another 2 or 3 60 goal seasons, tears it up in the playoffs AND wins a cup? He's going to get paid in retirement, but there's an entirely different scale if his legacy is that of a winner.




Scientists will investigate this comment for the purest hopium and copium that it contains. 13m wouldn't be putting the screws to us? Yeah, the highest paid player in the league should be the one who disappears when the games matter most lol. Mackinnon won a cup and McDavid is the best player in the league. Matthews won the Hart a year ago and scores a lot of goals, he's a superstar who deserves big money and there's no doubt about it, but the Toronto Maple Leafs should not be the professional organization where falling short of your expectations generate you a raise. He got $58m on his last contract, he does not need to be paid in advance for services that he has yet to deliver from his first deal.

I was asking what if he does everything you ask but DOESN'T win a cup....is he a failure, has he lost his legacy after giving it all and leaving MILLIONS on the table. He doesn't have all the control on team success, he has some, but only a fraction. Will he bank on management supporting them with the right pieces, have no injuries, have a little luck to end with a Cup?

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Just wondering what is it exactly that you've seen that makes him seem like a team guy and not a me guy?

I'm a zealot when it comes to my Leafs and I've seen nothing that makes me believe he's a team guy.

I think it's more about about NOT showing that he wants to be anywhere else. I won't be surprised to see him leave, i've posted as to why i think he would leave, this is a difficult market, unless he has sentimental value in staying nothing is holding him here. I can easily see him in another NHL market if he wants to, but he hasn't shown that he wants out. We will see.

My take is if he doesn't sign by July 1 he may more than likely be gone, all depends on how the last season plays out, and what management does.

 

[therealkoho]

I wouldn't .. but with Leafs I have learned over da years they can vastly outspend all comers so if he goes to FA and someone offers 15M well then Leafs offer 16M and its over .. bottom line Leafs are only team in league who could triple their player compensation and just continue on .. Matty strikes me as a kid who is about da $$$ first and foremost

So if they did that, how big of a mistake is it?

I think it's more about about NOT showing that he wants to be anywhere else. I won't be surprised to see him leave, i've posted as to why i think he would leave, this is a difficult market, unless he has sentimental value in staying nothing is holding him here. I can easily see him in another NHL market if he wants to, but he hasn't shown that he wants out. We will see.

My take is if he doesn't sign by July 1 he may more than likely be gone, all depends on how the last season plays out, and what management does.

If they let it go to July 1, then the Leafs are frigged 4 ways to sunday

 

[JT AM da real deal]

So if they did that, how big of a mistake is it?

It is what it is .. Leafs are not letting their 1OA pick go unless they get a boatload back .. #1C's are limited maybe 5-10 in league

 

[thewave]

So if they did that, how big of a mistake is it?


If they let it go to July 1, then the Leafs are frigged 4 ways to sunday

All the Dubas fans basically said this situation wouldn't happen. Can you imagine that haha

The only thing i expect to hear in the near term is an agreement has been reached and Matthews will be extended come July 1St.

 

[Gabriel426]

Why would you want to pay more to lock him up from his early to mid 30s? If anything id flip your numbers and pay more for the 5 years

You are betting he would decline by 32 and will sign cheaper. But I am betting on him pretty much stay the same and with the higher cap, he will ask for more when he is 32 and that contract won’t be for 3 yrs and more like 6 yrs. Which the last few will be hell.
Unless you won’t sign him after the 5 yrs deal nomatter what then I agree with your ideas.

 

[nuck]

You walk from JT at those numbers, so you dont have to worry about those numbers

Agree. JT needs to have a bounce back under the next coach to even consider re-upping as he is currently just a lesser part of the failed core. Who knows how much money the team has to spend at that point? Ranta, Crosby, Drai and Kuznetzov are also there if not already signed.

You can overpay anyone a little, just not four guys at once. Maybe they will trade Mitch and circle back to him as a UFA Thats one thing about your players demanding full retail deals, you can get them b ack later for the same price if your don't burn the bridge.