News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

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And Bruins fans were concerned during that time he was unsigned. How do you think things will be perceived if AM isn't signed until March after him saying that he hopes to have something done before the season started?

How it’s perceived was not the argument. People acting like him not being signed immediately once eligible is some kind of indicator of what will happen don’t have history on their side.
 
How it’s perceived was not the argument. People acting like him not being signed immediately once eligible is some kind of indicator of what will happen don’t have history on their side.

It is an indication he won't take a discount though.

You think if Matthews came out and said I'll take the Pastrnak deal, or 12M x 8 - he wouldn't be re-signed July 1st?

The fact that he's not signed yet indicates he's looking for the best contract in the league again.
 
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Pastrnak just came off a better season in both goals (61) and points (113) than Matthews has ever produced in his career.

He signed 11.25M X 8 (all UFA years), cheaper than Matthews RFA deal.
I was speaking in reference to comparing him to other centers who have signed their third contracts, what they produced for primary point production and how much they got paid for that

Using pastrnak against nylander i think it puts nylander around 8.5
 
I was speaking in reference to comparing him to other centers who have signed their third contracts, what they produced for primary point production and how much they got paid for that

Using pastrnak against nylander i think it puts nylander around 8.5

It's not really a fair analysis when you compare 8 year deals to 3 year deals.
 
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It's not really a fair analysis when you compare 8 year deals to 3 year deals.
ok term has to be discussed in that but what is your starting point? what do you use to compare?

in the cap era, for premier centers he was the second best ELC producer behind mcdavid and on 2nd contracts same center group he is number 1

where do you start? for on ice offense the number starts above 13 bottom line and you go from there
 
ok term has to be discussed in that but what is your starting point? what do you use to compare?

in the cap era, for premier centers he was the second best ELC producer behind mcdavid and on 2nd contracts same center group he is number 1

where do you start? for on ice offense the number starts above 13 bottom line and you go from there

He also plays on a team with 3 high-end offensive players.

Matthews was put in the ideal situation. He gets to play with Marner, Tavares, and Nylander. All 80+ point players.

The players he's compared to are not surrounded by as much offensive talent. They often have to carry the load alone.

Matthews was third on the team in scoring this year.
 
He also plays on a team with 3 high-end offensive players.

Matthews was put in the ideal situation. He gets to play with Marner, Tavares, and Nylander. All 80+ point players.

The players he's compared to are not surrounded by as much offensive talent. They often have to carry the load alone.

Matthews was third on the team in scoring this year.
ok my turn, second contract he produced more relative to:

mcdavid with draisaitl
crosby with malkin and letang and others
mackinnon with landeskog rantanen oreilly duchene
spezza with alfredsson and heatley


i'm trying to find out while it's easy to say 13.5! that bunk!... what could info or comparison or numbers you use to substantiate that position?

i mean do you really see treliving sitting at the table saying things like:
'you play with three high end offensive players'
'you were put into an ideal situation'

what measure would you use to bsaically create a correlation between these guys' primary point production versus their quality of teammates and then apply adjusted rates to those?
 
ok my turn, second contract he produced more relative to:

mcdavid with draisaitl
crosby with malkin and letang and others
mackinnon with landeskog rantanen oreilly duchene
spezza with alfredsson and heatley


i'm trying to find out while it's easy to say 13.5! that bunk!... what could info or comparison or numbers you use to substantiate that position?

i mean do you really see treliving sitting at the table saying things like:
'you play with three high end offensive players'
'you were put into an ideal situation'

what measure would you use to bsaically create a correlation between these guys' primary point production versus their quality of teammates and then apply adjusted rates to those?

My first question is where are you getting your stats from?

Show me where you're getting the stats that Matthews is the highest producing player on his contract outside of McDavid.

Show me where you're getting the stats that Matthews scores more relative to McDavid with Drai.

I'll respond when I see what constitutes those stats.

I'm not even sure if they're real or how they're calculated. Seemed to be some cherry-picked stats that I'd use if they're Matthews agent.

My first response would be - how many Art Rosses has Matthews won relative to McDavid/Crosby/Malkin/Draisaitl?
 
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My first question is where are you getting your stats from?

Show me where you're getting the stats that Matthews is the highest producing player on his contract outside of McDavid.

Show me where you're getting the stats that Matthews scores more relative to McDavid with Drai.

I'll respond when I see what constitutes those stats.

I'm not even sure if they're real or how they're calculated. Seemed to be some cherry-picked stats that I'd use if they're Matthews agent.

My first response would be - how many Art Rosses has Matthews won relative to McDavid/Crosby/Malkin/Draisaitl?
i have said it twice, primary points - what i failed to mention and my apologies but 5on5 minutes.
so primary points (goals/primary assists) per game

post 4313 of this thread

Just to throw this out there for anyone interested - and utilizing what has come up as a main factor in contracts is Primary points (goals and primary assists) - and also recognizing that many are 'meh' on the /60 stuff. This utilizes his actualy Ice time 5on5 during his 2nd contract and his actual primary points - nothing /60.

This is Matthews 3rd contract - so can we compare him to other prominent Centers and their third contracts, all relative to cap hits / cap %s.. So if we take a list of these players (but let's keep it to a minimum of that they signed atleast 5 years on their 3rd deals):
Sidney Crosby
Jason Spezza
Evgeni Malkin
Nathan Mackinnon
Jonathan Toews
Steven Stamkos
Evgeny Kuznetsov
Ryan Getzlaf
Henrik Zetterberg (both wing/center but i added him)
Anze Kopitar
Logan Couture
Dylan Larkin
Pierre-Luc Dubois
Eric Staal
Niklas Backstrom

so over the course of THEIR 2ND CONTRACTS versus what their teams signed them for on their 3rd contracts as star players. this group of players ON AVERAGE produced the following numbers and the teams paid them moving forward:
Primary points per game - 0.46
Average CAP HIT per primary point dollars - $237,747
Average CAP HIT % per primary point (based on the cap when they signed their 3rd contracts - 0.28% cap hit per primary point

Auston Matthews what he has done in his 2nd contract:
Primary points per game - 0.68
Average CAP HIT per primary point dollars - YET TO BE DETERMINED

So basically he produced 34% more than the average primary points production of these stars. if we were to take Auston's average of .68 primary points per game and project that into an 82 game schedule (you should always project your players to play 82 games), based on the average dollar per primary point these 15 stars were paid on their 3rd contracts you would end up with:

0.68 (auston's post ELC primary point / game) * 82 games THEN x $237,747 (average of what teams paid these 15 stars per primary point on 3rd contract =$13,190,151.50
on a 5 year deal that would be $65,950,608.00. it would tie him for the 3rd lowest (cheapest) cap hit % per primary point out of these 16 names, only more expensive than Couture and Spezza, and equal to Crosby. He has the highest real production OVER the average by 34% (how ironic). so if we did a PDO type stat, adding up these two factors - Cap hit % per primary point & Primary point production % over/under the average - Auston is at 34%, 1 % higher than Crosby

so as a BASE, based on what has been discussed, Primary point production at 5on5 - Auston looks to be 13.2 million / season. but then having what he accomplished, outproducing everyone on that list, all the big guys - are we expecting him to be paid on the average? what non production value gets added in? i am fairly certain my math is correct, my method may be weird, but i wanted to see if i could show a DIFFERENT way than Dekes does sometimes
 
i have said it twice, primary points - what i failed to mention and my apologies but 5on5 minutes.
so primary points (goals/primary assists) per game

post 4313 of this thread

What website are you using?

Secondly, that completely changes your whole argument. So you're using Matthews greatest strength and then using that as the only variable? Of course Matthews is going to be near the top.

Gaudreau, another 5v5 specialist - just signed 9.75M X 7. We can use that as Matthews comparable since we're only talking about 5v5 points.
 
What website are you using?

Secondly, that completely changes your whole argument. So you're using Matthews greatest strength and then using that as the only variable? Of course Matthews is going to be near the top.

Gaudreau, another 5v5 specialist - just signed 9.75M X 7. We can use that as Matthews comparable since we're only talking about 5v5 points.

I used several sites including some data from our friends on the numbers forum

Matthews greatest strength? Producing at a high level in the most played game state? 5 on 5? Then that is pretty valuable.

Gaudreau did very well in his second contract at 0.52 primary point per game, and scored well above the average when looking at a list of upper end wingers in cap era.. roughly 30. He also took a very fair contract relative to his winger comparables

If we used him and paid matthews the same dollar per primary point matthews would get 12.7 - all while outproducing gaudreau by 0.16 more per game.. or an extra 13 primary points over an 82 game season which is a lot
 
For the first time in our storied franchise history we have a generational player, and now everyone wants to drag him through the mud! For shame. We should be much more grateful and appreciative. Our time with him will be but a drop in the ocean.
If only this generational player could lift his team to success in the playoffs instead of disappearing 7 years in a row. Kinda like a player worthy of the moniker “Generational player” should do

Not dragging anyone through the mud, just saying 13.5 doesn't seem like a discount to me. Maybe if it was for 8 years but my understanding is that the term will be much shorter.

So far our time with him hasn't led to any playoff success so I'm not feeling particularly sentimental about him myself. And if he wants to be the highest paid player in the world after the mediocre season he just had, it may well be that we need "our time with him" to end before we can start thinking realistically about going deep in the playoffs again.

He's a great player when he's on and when he's healthy but when he's not, he's nowhere near worth that kind of cap hit. And no matter what, I'll always be a "crest on the front" kind of guy and the names on the back will always be a very distant second to the team. And I don't see 13.5 million on a short term for this guy being a positive for the team, it feels more like a premium than a discount.
I read this post and approve 100 %……..lol.
well done
 
It puts him right in the average pay bracket bucket for offensive primary point production and what he produces
So for that to be in the average there must be contract for more money and some for less…….who makes more then that.
 
So for that to be in the average there must be contract for more money and some for less…….who makes more then that.
Average to the right at 234,502 per primary point for these guys' third contracts paying for their 2nd contracts primary production.
amazing regarding production how high dubois got in my opinion - and then how criminally underpaid spezza was for so long. stamkos/crosby also standout on the lower end.

for fun
Matthews at Average 234,502 = 13,000,000 / year
Matthews at Mackinnon 290,630 = 16,100,000 / year
Matthews at Getzlaf 261,125 = 14,500,000 / year


Screenshot 2023-07-19 162027.png
 
Pastrnak just came off a better season in both goals (61) and points (113) than Matthews has ever produced in his career.

He signed 11.25M X 8 (all UFA years), cheaper than Matthews RFA deal.

He's also a winger, and the least defensively impactful player on his line.
 
And Matthews is the rare top C that doesn't PK

If we're looking at the Kampf-Matthews-Marner line, the same can be said for Matthews

His even strength defensive stats are great. Matthews doesn't play PK on the leafs because he doesn't have to, not beacuse he can't.

Matthews goes out against top opposition lines before Kampf does for a reason
 
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And Matthews is the rare top C that doesn't PK

If we're looking at the Kampf-Matthews-Marner line, the same can be said for Matthews
What points are out there to get him under 13?

Honestly asking and personally i dont see using wingers as that viable
 
What points are out there to get him under 13?

Honestly asking and personally i dont see using wingers as that viable

The fact no player in the league makes 13M and Matthews is not the best player in the league. That's a pretty strong one.

You also refuse to give me websites or anything from where you get your numbers, so no point arguing with someone possibly making up data. I have no idea where you get your numbers from, other than you make them up yourself from 'various sources'.

His even strength defensive stats are great. Matthews doesn't play PK on the leafs because he doesn't have to, not beacuse he can't.

Matthews goes out against top opposition lines before Kampf does for a reason

Matthews doesn't PK because he doesn't want to*

Babcock asked him and he said no.

Does McDavid have to PK? Crosby? Stamkos?

Why does Marner have to PK but Matthews doesn't?
 
The fact no player in the league makes 13M and Matthews is not the best player in the league. That's a pretty strong one.

You also refuse to give me websites or anything from where you get your numbers, so no point arguing with someone possibly making up data. I have no idea where you get your numbers from, other than you make them up yourself from 'various sources'.



Matthews doesn't PK because he doesn't want to*

Babcock asked him and he said no.

Does McDavid have to PK? Crosby? Stamkos?

Why does Marner *have* to PK but Matthews doesn't?
Oh for chirst sake

Nhl.com
Hockeyreference
Moneypuck
Natural stat trick

And data files for pre 2008 for ice time tracking that i linked up with using hfboards numbers forum
 
Oh for chirst sake

Nhl.com
Hockeyreference
Moneypuck
Natural stat trick

And data files for pre 2008 for ice time tracking that i linked up with using hfboards numbers forum

I don't know, your stats are oddly specific.

"Player who is among the lead leaders on 5 on 5 points, specifically on their second contract" therefore he deserves 13M.
 
The fact no player in the league makes 13M and Matthews is not the best player in the league. That's a pretty strong one.

You also refuse to give me websites or anything from where you get your numbers, so no point arguing with someone possibly making up data. I have no idea where you get your numbers from, other than you make them up yourself from 'various sources'.

Matthews doesn't PK because he doesn't want to*

Babcock asked him and he said no.

Does McDavid have to PK? Crosby? Stamkos?

Why does Marner have to PK but Matthews doesn't?
The bolded says it all IMO. Yes Matthews won a Hart but he was so far off that level this season that I see no justification whatsoever for him being the highest paid player in the league. And talking about 13.5 being a discount as another poster did is almost insulting to long suffering Leaf fans like myself.

I wouldn't hold not killing penalties against him though, I wouldn't ask him to do that if I was coaching because I feel like his energy is better spent elsewhere. JMHO.

Having said that, I also see no reason for Marner playing about a minute per game more than Matthews, that makes no sense to me whatsoever. Take a minute away from Marner and give it to Nylander, but I digress ...
 
The bolded says it all IMO. Yes Matthews won a Hart but he was so far off that level this season that I see no justification whatsoever for him being the highest paid player in the league. And talking about 13.5 being a discount as another poster did is almost insulting to long suffering Leaf fans like myself.

I wouldn't hold not killing penalties against him though, I wouldn't ask him to do that if I was coaching because I feel like his energy is better spent elsewhere. JMHO.

Having said that, I also see no reason for Marner playing about a minute per game more than Matthews, that makes no sense to me whatsoever. Take a minute away from Marner and give it to Nylander, but I digress ...

The problem is, with Matthews contract, he's taking up enough cap that we have to compromise at least one other spot on our roster.

If you're getting paid a huge amount of money to the point that the team has to make compromises around the roster to fit under the cap, you should be trusted at all times.

If the argument is Matthews is strong defensively, and he's making 11M+, he should be on the PK. Preventing goals is just as important as scoring goals. If Matthews prevents a goal, that is equally as valuable as him scoring a goal. In the playoffs specifically, scoring is tougher - so part of 'buying in' is preventing goals. When we played Tampa, Stamkos, another 60G, 100P+ centre was on the ice blocking shots and preventing goals. Maybe that contributed to the buy-in and 2 Cups?

Secondly, because Matthews doesn't PK - it gives Marner a stronger argument for his contract. You have Matthews the diva, who will only play when he has the highest chances of scoring (ES or PP) but will ride the bench when the game may be on the line (PK) and Marner is out there in all situations. That closes the gap between them, so of course he's going to ask the same.

Matthews needs to set the example and show that he's willing to play in all situations if he wants to get paid as much as two solid players under the cap would. If it's the playoffs and it's Game 7 late in a tie game and we're on the PK - why do we have to have to have our 11M+ player who's 'good defensively' watching the game with us?
 
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