News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[PromisedLand]

If the number starts with 14 or more and is less than 8 years it is franchise crippling. It would take a complete rebuild to undo that mistake.

Even 13 x5 is pushing it but I get why it is happening with a higher cap.

then matthews should have committed more than 5 years as RFA signing. He didn't want to do that so here we are....

According to Bettman, Coyotes would increase their revenues playing in front of 5,000 people.

I saw an article that said Yotes sold more ticket at the college rink than the offical NHL rink.

I have no clue how that is possible but it was a story

 

[Dekes For Days]

A big cap jump is already baked in, anyone saying otherwise isn’t following it correctly, not meaning to direct this at you guys here.

The lag formula introduced in the MoU that takes over once COVID escrow is paid off (that will happen early next season, they almost made it this season according to NHL) dictates, in simple terms, that HRR two season prior will set the cap for a coming season. That means the HRR for the season that just finished (22-23) will set the cap for 24-25. Gary has suggested this year was “pushing 6 billion” in HRR. There are some sources suggesting 5.7 is about the right number.

All this adds up to at a minimum a normally max allowed by MoU 5% year to year cap increase to something between 87.5 and 88, unless they hit some triggering conditions where the league doesn’t actually pay the players 50% of HRR, which would allow an increase of up to 10%. That's not impossible to see either, bringing it in as high as 92 per team, albeit a less likely scenario.

Never even mind generationally high inflation driving HRR higher by default for the next couple cap calculations.

The cap is jumping big for at least the next couple seasons, guaranteed, the cap has artificially fallen behind the HRR formula because of the escrow deficit. The league knows it, the players know it, agents know it, teams know it, it’s a legit consideration for FA’s this year.

Yeah, people really need to look it at less as "the cap is going to go up" and more as "the cap has already gone up, and has for a while, but now it's going to stop being manually set at a lower number to pay off a billion+ dollar player debt caused by a global pandemic shutting down gate revenues in a gate-driven league".

 

[PromisedLand]

Does Matthews have a full no movement clause now? If he does, what bargaining power do the Leafs have? If they can't agree on the AAV, then wouldn't Matthews just walk since the Leafs can't trade him?

Both matthews and marner hold all the cards now. Both of their NTC/NMC has kicked in July 1st.

A big cap jump is already baked in, anyone saying otherwise isn’t following it correctly, not meaning to direct this at you guys here.

The lag formula introduced in the MoU that takes over once COVID escrow is paid off (that will happen early next season, they almost made it this season according to NHL) dictates, in simple terms, that HRR two season prior will set the cap for a coming season. That means the HRR for the season that just finished (22-23) will set the cap for 24-25. Gary has suggested this year was “pushing 6 billion” in HRR. There are some sources suggesting 5.7 is about the right number.

All this adds up to at a minimum a normally max allowed by MoU 5% year to year cap increase to something between 87.5 and 88, unless they hit some triggering conditions where the league doesn’t actually pay the players 50% of HRR, which would allow an increase of up to 10%. That's not impossible to see either, bringing it in as high as 92 per team, albeit a less likely scenario.

Never even mind generationally high inflation driving HRR higher by default for the next couple cap calculations.

The cap is jumping big for at least the next couple seasons, guaranteed, the cap has artificially fallen behind the HRR formula because of the escrow deficit. The league knows it, the players know it, agents know it, teams know it, it’s a legit consideration for FA’s this year.

Inflation works both ways IMO
- hockey consumer market is also facing inflation and high int rates. Eventually, consumer market will also normalize IMO. I won't spend as much as I used to on hockey related entertainment than I did because my everyday expenses have also skyrocketed
- there have been concerns of global recession been brought about by increase in int rate to cool of excess heating of the economy too. not sure how one is going to factor that in the cap calculations as "expected risk" especially when negotiating contracts.

 

[ULF_55]

Nothing heard so far.

I believe there was a comment made about his father's career being derailed by injury so he wants to get as much money as possible? So the short term deals to get increases in subsequent years.

Isn't that really contradictory to getting the most guaranteed money?

His wrist injuries, for a player so reliant on his hands for scoring, could end up derailing his career.

So wouldn't a guaranteed long term deal make more sense if your being told injuries ended your fathers career so get the most you can?

Getting the most money probably also means chasing the most money regardless of location?

Arizona moves to a brand new location and brand new arena and wants a centerpiece for the roster? A max salary offer wouldn't be unreasonable.

Going to be interesting see what the strategy is for Team Matthews.


I don't think this signing is going well.

 

[Gaberd2608]

Nothing heard so far.

I believe there was a comment made about his father's career being derailed by injury so he wants to get as much money as possible? So the short term deals to get increases in subsequent years.

Isn't that really contradictory to getting the most guaranteed money?

His wrist injuries, for a player so reliant on his hands for scoring, could end up derailing his career.

So wouldn't a guaranteed long term deal make more sense if your being told injuries ended your fathers career so get the most you can?

Getting the most money probably also means chasing the most money regardless of location?

Arizona moves to a brand new location and brand new arena and wants a centerpiece for the roster? A max salary offer wouldn't be unreasonable.

Going to be interesting see what the strategy is for Team Matthews.


I don't think this signing is going well.

There is a limit to what Matthews will ask for imo. Most likely it will be based on percentage of cap and not the actual amount.

Based on a cap of $83.5, 16% (i think this is what Mackinnon is at?) is $13.36 million. I guess the discount is dropping it to $13.34. I dont think the amount is the issue. I would be floored if that is not the dollar amount. I think it is the term. I can see Matthews wanting a 1 year deal because when the cap goes up next summer it would mean another millionish for him at the same percentage. I am sure BT is pushing for 5 years. I suspect it ends up being 2 x $13.34 million for Matthews which is annoying as f***.

 

[Gabriel426]

There is a limit to what Matthews will ask for imo. Most likely it will be based on percentage of cap and not the actual amount.

Based on a cap of $83.5, 16% (i think this is what Mackinnon is at?) is $13.36 million. I guess the discount is dropping it to $13.34. I dont think the amount is the issue. I would be floored if that is not the dollar amount. I think it is the term. I can see Matthews wanting a 1 year deal because when the cap goes up next summer it would mean another millionish for him at the same percentage. I am sure BT is pushing for 5 years. I suspect it ends up being 2 x $13.34 million for Matthews which is annoying as f***.

1. AM should not be paid higher than Mack. I am 100% sure when Mack’s team negotiated his deal they also anticipated the cap increase….but still end up with 12.6mil
2. Just sign AM to 8yrs deal or at the very least a 7 yr deal. Only in Leafs land where a shorter deal means great for the team.
If Pastra signed for 5 yrs, you all will be laughing at Bruins for getting bend over.
3. If AM won’t accept that, trade him. He will waive bc nobody would want to go through the uncertainty in Toronto for a season.

Funny how when Willie is asking for a mil more and at least seem like a 7-8yrs deal, fans are all, let’s trade him but when it comes to AM, give him a bit more and shorter years, as we can’t lose him….

 

[MAB1]

1. AM should not be paid higher than Mack. I am 100% sure when Mack’s team negotiated his deal they also anticipated the cap increase….but still end up with 12.6mil
2. Just sign AM to 8yrs deal or at the very least a 7 yr deal. Only in Leafs land where a shorter deal means great for the team.
If Pastra signed for 5 yrs, you all will be laughing at Bruins for getting bend over.
3. If AM won’t accept that, trade him. He will waive bc nobody would want to go through the uncertainty in Toronto for a season.

Funny how when Willie is asking for a mil more and at least seem like a 7-8yrs deal, fans are all, let’s trade him but when it comes to AM, give him a bit more and shorter years, as we can’t lose him….

you're comparing a top 3-5 player in the league to a top 10 winger in hockey

 

[ULF_55]

There is a limit to what Matthews will ask for imo. Most likely it will be based on percentage of cap and not the actual amount.

Based on a cap of $83.5, 16% (i think this is what Mackinnon is at?) is $13.36 million. I guess the discount is dropping it to $13.34. I dont think the amount is the issue. I would be floored if that is not the dollar amount. I think it is the term. I can see Matthews wanting a 1 year deal because when the cap goes up next summer it would mean another millionish for him at the same percentage. I am sure BT is pushing for 5 years. I suspect it ends up being 2 x $13.34 million for Matthews which is annoying as f***.

The term will focus on the player's goal.

A short term deal will clarify the Leafs are nothing more than a bank for him.

Be nice to see a superstar on the Leafs show a commitment to the Leafs like McDavid did with the Oilers, MacKinnon with the Avalanche, Stamkos and Kucherov Lightning, Crosby and Malkin Pittsburgh, Barkov Florida, Pastrnak Boston.

 

[mcleafs]

Lots of different ways you can do a theoretical calculation, but based on brass tax numbers McKinnon signed 8 years @ 12.6MM when it was known the next year (first year of extension) cap was 83.5MM. That's 15.1%.

If Matthews does the exact same thing (and this assumes you believe he's worth what McKinnon is; which not only do I not but he also already made much more on his 1st contract that McK did) based on next year's cap which is essentially confirmed to be 87.5MM, that's 8 years @ 13.2MM.

That's the maximum, and assumes Matthews is worth that much, which he simply is not.

If his next contract is anything off those parameters, no matter how you slice it, he will go down in history as the best Leaf to never give a shit about winning, or the team. And forever a loser.

 

[MAB1]

The term will focus on the player's goal.

A short term deal will clarify the Leafs are nothing more than a bank for him.

Be nice to see a superstar on the Leafs show a commitment to the Leafs like McDavid did with the Oilers, MacKinnon with the Avalanche, Stamkos and Kucherov Lightning, Crosby and Malkin Pittsburgh, Barkov Florida, Pastrnak Boston.

If Matthews only signs a 2 year extension that means he'll become a UFA the same year McDavid is.

A guy like Matthews probably doesn't want to be the consolation prize for a team missing out on McDavid. I see the extension being anywhere from 3-5 years so that when he hits UFA he is the big fish.

 

[Nineteen67]

you're comparing a top 3-5 player in the league to a top 10 winger in hockey

He better sign soon while he can still claim to be a top 5 player

 

[MAB1]

He better sign soon while he can still claim to be a top 5 player

He's 1 year removed from being league MVP, 2x Rocket winner and back-to-back Hart finalist nominations.

Are you that obtuse that you're using 1 injury plagued season over the last 3-4?

Seriously?

 

[ULF_55]

He's 1 year removed from being league MVP, 2x Rocket winner and back-to-back Hart finalist nominations.

Are you that obtuse that you're using 1 injury plagued season over the last 3-4?

Seriously?

Let's use more years then.

 

[Gabriel426]

you're comparing a top 3-5 player in the league to a top 10 winger in hockey

Entitlement comes in all forms, lol.

I know what you are saying but the team comes first. No offence to any of our boys but they have not won sh*t in this league. And if a defensive C or just some physical players can shut them down, why should the team bend over to keep them.
Why should the team sacrifice supporting cast to keep them?
Let’s say AM signed for 13.34 or something, you add Reaves(12th forward) 1.3 and you get 14.64mil.
Do you honesty telling me that for 14.64mil, Treliving can’t find a combination of two players that can produce the combine offense of AM and Reaves? Even JT and Domi probably would provide the same offence if not more than AM and Reaves if they also get AM’s PP time.

 

[Nineteen67]

He's 1 year removed from being league MVP, 2x Rocket winner and back-to-back Hart finalist nominations.

Are you that obtuse that you're using 1 injury plagued season over the last 3-4?

Seriously?

Nah, just that there’s a good one on the horizon with hockey in his blood.

 

[MAB1]

Entitlement comes in all forms, lol.

I know what you are saying but the team comes first. No offence to any of our boys but they have not won sh*t in this league. And if a defensive C or just some physical players can shut them down, why should the team bend over to keep them.
Why should the team sacrifice supporting cast to keep them?
Let’s say AM signed for 13.34 or something, you add Reaves(12th forward) 1.3 and you get 14.64mil.
Do you honesty telling me that for 14.64mil, Treliving can’t find a combination of two players that can produce the combine offense of AM and Reaves? Even JT and Domi probably would provide the same offence if not more than AM and Reaves if they also get AM’s PP time.

What did:

Ovi/Backstrom/Kuznetsov/
Kucherov/Stamkos/Hedman
Mackinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen

win their first 7 years in the league?

If you're impatient just say that. This isn't your video game where you can just restart it after you make a shit trade.

 

[mcleafs]

He's 1 year removed from being league MVP, 2x Rocket winner and back-to-back Hart finalist nominations.

Are you that obtuse that you're using 1 injury plagued season over the last 3-4?

Seriously?

To be fair, the argument for AM's first contract was you pay for the future, not the past. Now do you have to pay for the past? Which year is the most important to trend for the future?

I'm not saying I agree that it's all based on his last year, but I mean, Taylor Hall won MVP too. This idea that AM is worth the same as McDavid and is clearly the second best player in the league (not saying you're making that argument, but the media is) is not supported by any actual statistic or fact at all.

 

[Gabriel426]

What did:

Ovi/Backstrom/Kuznetsov/
Kucherov/Stamkos/Hedman
Mackinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen

win their first 7 years in the league?

If you're impatient just say that. This isn't your video game where you can just restart it after you make a shit trade.

They won more than AM and the Leafs.

If you don’t want to face reality and live in denial, just say it, don’t need to imply others like myself for playing video game. Also, there is nothing wrong with playing video games. I find your comment very rude and bigotry plus very exclusive and borderline hate speech.

Also, what’s wrong with setting a culture that all players need to sacrifice a little in their contracts in order for the team to have more chance of success like winning the Cup? Pls answer as myself and others would love to hear your answers.

 

[MAB1]

To be fair, the argument for AM's first contract was you pay for the future, not the past. Now do you have to pay for the past? Which year is the most important to trend for the future?

I'm not saying I agree that it's all based on his last year, but I mean, Taylor Hall won MVP too. This idea that AM is worth the same as McDavid and is clearly the second best player in the league (not saying you're making that argument, but the media is) is not supported by any actual statistic or fact at all.

Paying him the same cap % that Mackinnon got puts him at almost $13.5 million AAV...

If you don't understand how these things work there's really no point talking to you about it.

You're comparing Taylor Hall who only had 1 year of his career where he was a serious Hart contender to a guy who has already had 2 top 3 finishes, 2x rocket trophies along with the Hart.

 

[ULF_55]

Paying him the same cap % that Mackinnon got puts him at almost $13.5 million AAV...

If you don't understand how these things work there's really no point talking to you about it.

You're comparing Taylor Hall who only had 1 year of his career where he was a serious Hart contender to a guy who has already had 2 top 3 finishes, 2x rocket trophies along with the Hart.

I think everyone could live with an 8 year deal that puts him in the same category with MacKinnon even though he's not a winner.

 

[mcleafs]

Paying him the same cap % that Mackinnon got puts him at almost $13.5 million AAV...

If you don't understand how these things work there's really no point talking to you about it.

You're comparing Taylor Hall who only had 1 year of his career where he was a serious Hart contender to a guy who has already had 2 top 3 finishes, 2x rocket trophies along with the Hart.

8 years @ 13.2MM to be exact, and I not only do I understand I agree with you. I don't think he's worth McKinnon money, but let's just for argument sake say he is.

Not one single report has stated projected numbers even close to 8x13.2. On the TSN broadcast for FAF, they had 5x14.5 as the most likely. That's 16.6%, or a whopping 1.5% more than McKinnon or even 0.7% more than McDavid, and at just 5 years!

 

[ULF_55]

8 years @ 13.2MM to be exact, and I not only do I understand I agree with you. I don't think he's worth McKinnon money, but let's just for argument sake say he is.

Not one single report has stated projected numbers even close to 8x13.2. On the TSN broadcast for FAF, they had 5x14.5 as the most likely. That's 16.6%, or a whopping 1.5% more than McKinnon or even 0.7% more than McDavid, and at just 5 years!

We can hope all those reports are incorrect and he does show some commitment to the team.

He's definitely not the best player in the league, but he's in a group with the best players in the league.

Where he falls, beside after McDavid is up for debate.

You might have to include Draisaitl in that group. Yes, he plays with McDavid, same as Matthews plays with marner. If you read the many comments on this forum, Draisaitl is no where near as good as marner. So you can't prop up McDavid because of Draisaitl, but you can prop up Matthews because of the marner >> Draisaitl.

 

[mcleafs]

We can hope all those reports are incorrect and he does show some commitment to the team.

He's definitely not the best player in the league, but he's in a group with the best players in the league.

Where he falls, beside after McDavid is up for debate.

You might have to include Draisaitl in that group. Yes, he plays with McDavid, same as Matthews plays with marner. If you read the many comments on this forum, Draisaitl is no where near as good as marner. So you can't prop up McDavid because of Draisaitl, but you can prop up Matthews because of the marner >> Draisaitl.

For my money it's plain as day that McDavid, McKinnon and Draisaitl are all hands down better than Matthews, as I'd prefer any of the 3 over him. I'm with you though that he is clearly in the next group of players, the Kucherov's, Pasternak's, etc.

But a contract that puts him outside of that group into the upper tier, let alone sets a new %/term standard will not only hold the Leafs back forever, but may end up being one of the worst contracts ever signed in hockey.

There is a greater than 0% chance that last season's regression continues, and pray though that it doesn't, can you imagine that type of production at 13MM+ a season? Matthews only legacy will be his own hubris, and lack of desire to win.

 

[ULF_55]

For my money it's plain as day that McDavid, McKinnon and Draisaitl are all hands down better than Matthews, as I'd prefer any of the 3 over him. I'm with you though that he is clearly in the next group of players, the Kucherov's, Pasternak's, etc.

But a contract that puts him outside of that group into the upper tier, let alone sets a new %/term standard will not only hold the Leafs back forever, but may end up being one of the worst contracts ever signed in hockey.

There is a greater than 0% chance that last season's regression continues, and pray though that it doesn't, can you imagine that type of production at 13MM+ a season? Matthews only legacy will be his own hubris, and lack of desire to win.

Will he eventually join this list? 10 best players to never win the Stanley Cup

Of course no player is an island, unless it is by choice.

It never did look like Matthews was 100% last season, or maybe expectation was too high?

Amongst the tier below McDavid there can be seasonal fluctuations. McDavid is possibly, and it seems to be going to the generational category, where most if not the rest are franchise level players.

As Leafs fans we should be thrilled to have a franchise level center, but we shouldn't hold him up to generational level players.

Where we should all be aligned is that desire that Matthews shows the same commitment to his team as other franchise level players are showing theirs.

 

[Confucius]

I think everyone could live with an 8 year deal that puts him in the same category with MacKinnon even though he's not a winner.

Not everyone, he won’t be better than he has been, why pay more? It’s not like he was underpaid and we want to reward him.