Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[Finger Licking Good]

Rask, vasi, price, bobrovsky, etc and the last two had the playoffs of legend

I don’t see drai having to battle with kind of talent in net.

 

[93LEAFS]

The only players with more goals drafted since 2007 are Patrick Kane, Jamie Benn, Stamkos and Tavares. Matthews was drafted in 2016. His goal scoring has been nuts. Outside Tavares and Benn, most of the guys active in the league who have more goals than him are first ballot hall of famers in their mid to late 30s like Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Kane, Kopitar, and Stamkos. or guys who entered the league full decade or more before him like Marchand, Pavelski, Parise, and Jeff Carter.

 

[Strangle]

Regardless of which goalies and teams the Leafs have been against in the playoffs the last 6 years Matthews has not played up to his regular season performance. he's been good but not a dominant player.

I mean, that’s true. But he hasn’t been trash

Living up to his regular season stats isn’t even a reasonable expectation and would be one of the greatest playoff performances of all time if he did it

That’s a hell of a high bar, and I hope he does it. But it’s really not reasonable

 

[DueDiligence]

I mean, that’s true. But he hasn’t been trash

Living up to his regular season stats isn’t even a reasonable expectation and would be one of the greatest playoff performances of all time if he did it

That’s a hell of a high bar, and I hope he does it. But it’s really not reasonable

A generational goal scorer like Matthews should be dominant in the playoffs. Not every year but certainly in some. Orr was, Gretzky was, Lemieux was and Crosby has been. Heck even Ovie has had a couple of superb playoffs. Matthews has yet to be that guy. Buy he still has time to do so.

 

[Leksand]

Lots of ifs and maybes. Do I think Ovechkin could have also scored more than 1 60 goal season? Sure, likely. But I’m not sure that I personally put a lot of stock in adjusting only against the average scoring rate each season, simply because it’s a multitude of factors that go into how a player ultimately performs in the environment they are each in.

I think as well, someone would have to do a pretty deep analysis of where the extra offense in a given year even came from. What was the driving factors in the increase, and was it fairly uniform, more weighted to top offensive players, or on the back of higher production from depth offense. It’s an interesting discussion in the least

When I’ve seen people do some work on adjusted stats to compare over time, Ovie’s 65 goal season tends to go very high up in rankings, and also Brett Hull’s season comes out very high. If you want to compare numbers across time they have to be adjusted somehow to be relevant, but it won’t be perfect. That’s why I like to look at scoring titles - how many seasons did a player score the most goals of all players in the league.

 

[Leksand]

Yeah, worth noting that Ovi's best goalscoring years came in a lower scoring environment, plus some bad luck with lockout/suspensions/covid etc.

Not going to start an argument about adjusted goals, or Matthews vs. Ovi at all - but simply to add some mathematical context. Take what you want from it:

Adjust Ovi's career to all 3.11 goals/gp (which is the low side of what we've been at the last few years with all the rule and equipment changes), and he has 3 'adjusted' 60 goal seasons.

2010 would be the 4th if he didn't miss 10 games due to suspension + personal leave for his dads death. 2013 would have been the 5th, but half season lockout. 2014/2015 were just a few games off, and then 2020 was obviously the covid cutoff season.

Year	League Avg Goals	3.11 vs that year	Ovi GP	Ovi Goals	Goals - Adj to 3.11	3.11 - adj to 82gp
2023-24	3.11	0.0%​
2022-23	3.18	-2.2%​
2021-22	3.14	-1.0%​
2020-21	2.94	5.8%​
2019-20	3.02	3.0%​	68	48	49	60
2018-19	3.01	3.3%​	81	51	53
2017-18	2.97	4.7%​	82	49	51
2016-17	2.77	12.3%​	82	33	37
2015-16	2.71	14.8%​	79	50	57	60
2014-15	2.73	13.9%​	81	53	60
2013-14	2.74	13.5%​	78	51	58	61
2012-13	2.72	14.3%​	48	32	37	63
2011-12	2.73	13.9%​	78	38	43
2010-11	2.79	11.5%​	79	32	36
2009-10	2.84	9.5%​	72	50	55	62
2008-09	2.91	6.9%​	79	56	60
2007-08	2.78	11.9%​	82	65	73
2006-07	2.95	5.4%​	82	46	48
2005-06	3.08	1.0%​	81	52	53

This is a very good illustration of why some adjustments is necessary. This may not be the best way of doing it, I don’t know, but if you don’t like it, come up with a better way and explain.

 

[Divine]

Yeah, worth noting that Ovi's best goalscoring years came in a lower scoring environment, plus some bad luck with lockout/suspensions/covid etc.

Not going to start an argument about adjusted goals, or Matthews vs. Ovi at all - but simply to add some mathematical context. Take what you want from it:

Adjust Ovi's career to all 3.11 goals/gp (which is the low side of what we've been at the last few years with all the rule and equipment changes), and he has 3 'adjusted' 60 goal seasons.

2010 would be the 4th if he didn't miss 10 games due to suspension + personal leave for his dads death. 2013 would have been the 5th, but half season lockout. 2014/2015 were just a few games off, and then 2020 was obviously the covid cutoff season.

Year	League Avg Goals	3.11 vs that year	Ovi GP	Ovi Goals	Goals - Adj to 3.11	3.11 - adj to 82gp
2023-24	3.11	0.0%​
2022-23	3.18	-2.2%​
2021-22	3.14	-1.0%​
2020-21	2.94	5.8%​
2019-20	3.02	3.0%​	68	48	49	60
2018-19	3.01	3.3%​	81	51	53
2017-18	2.97	4.7%​	82	49	51
2016-17	2.77	12.3%​	82	33	37
2015-16	2.71	14.8%​	79	50	57	60
2014-15	2.73	13.9%​	81	53	60
2013-14	2.74	13.5%​	78	51	58	61
2012-13	2.72	14.3%​	48	32	37	63
2011-12	2.73	13.9%​	78	38	43
2010-11	2.79	11.5%​	79	32	36
2009-10	2.84	9.5%​	72	50	55	62
2008-09	2.91	6.9%​	79	56	60
2007-08	2.78	11.9%​	82	65	73
2006-07	2.95	5.4%​	82	46	48
2005-06	3.08	1.0%​	81	52	53

Okay, now do all of Matthews seasons adjusted to 3.11 per 82 games.

Hint: He has more than 2 60 goal seasons.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Okay, now do all of Matthews seasons adjusted to 3.11 per 82 games.

Hint: He has more than 2 60 goal seasons.

He won’t get any in the 3.11 adjusted column, that doesn’t include pace.
OV was always available to play despite his reckless style of running through everything, first half of his career.

 

[Divine]

He won’t get any in the 3.11 adjusted column, that doesn’t include pace.
OV was always available to play despite his reckless style of running through everything, first half of his career.

He added a pace column for Ovechkin. Why leave it out for Matthews?

Seems quite a one-sided comparison. Can we adjust it for PP time?

Update, he just scored again

64 goals in 75 games

 

[Eternal Leaf]

64 goals!

Keeps on marching forward toward 70.

 

[tTheVeganWoofMate]

That would be sweet if he hit 70.

 

[Divine]

I'm watching to see if he can reach McDavids high mark of 64.

He did it against the Habs.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I feel like he is gonna end up stuck on like 68 goals or something, unless he can throw out a hat trick before the final 2 games.

 

[PaulD]

He did it against the Habs.

Good on him.
Tied MCDavid. Thats a huge feat.

 

[Divine]

Good on him.
Tied MCDavid. Thats a huge feat.

Likely beats both Ovi and McDavid. They both played 82 games too. Matthews is at 75.

Enjoy the best goalscoring season in the last 30 years.

 

[PaulD]

Habs look terrible in their own end.
Waiting patiently for them to hire a proper experienced coaching staff.

 

[Turin]

Likely beats both Ovi and McDavid. They both played 82 games too. Matthews is at 75.

Enjoy the best goalscoring season in the last 30 years.

It will take 70+ to make this season better than Ovechkin's 65 in 08.

 

[Divine]

It will take 70+ to make this season better than Ovechkin's 65 in 08.

Only if you ignore PP time.

 

[Turin]

Only if you ignore PP time.

Why would I care about PP time? If Ovechkin scored all those goals on the powerplay it would still be the best by a good margin since he did it in 2008.

 

[RiverbottomChuck]

He’s a beast

 

[Divine]

Why would I care about PP time? If Ovechkin scored all those goals on the powerplay it would still be the best by a good margin since he did it in 2008.

Why are you adjusting for scoring then and not PP's?

 

[Despote]

We really are in a golden era of talent.

So happy the days of Jamie Benn winning scoring titles with 82 points are long past.

Matthews is a better goalscorer than Ovechkin but is also an elite two-way center. A player like him would've been a fever dream in 2014. Insane to see the skillsets of the players develop.

 

[Turin]

Why are you adjusting for scoring then and not PP's?

Because powerplay goals count? Ovechkin had 43 even strength goals in 2008. 8 more than second place. Anybody who watched Ovechkin that year knows that in this scoring environment he would have blitzed passed 70, likely would have flirted with a goal a game.

Kinda crazy how a ton of these Toronto posters literally are not old enough to have watched the 2008 season. It's so over.

 

[Divine]

Because powerplay goals count? Ovechkin had 43 even strength goals in 2008. 8 more than second place. Anybody who watched Ovechkin that year knows that in this scoring environment he would have blitzed passed 70, likely would have flirted with a goal a game.

PP goals count, so do all goals.

Why are you adjusting for scoring if all goals are the same? Maybe the players are just more talented today?

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

And of the nine, two have not won a Cup...