Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

8 games left and he needs 7 goals, Montreal is next, and Martner is expected back.

He's got a shot

 

[Orfieus]

8 games left and he needs 7 goals, Montreal is next, and Martner is expected back.

He's got a shot

If I'm being honest he has to start cooling off now because Toronto can't have him starting a slump during the playoffs

 

[Sypher04]

If I'm being honest he has to start cooling off now because Toronto can't have him starting a slump during the playoffs

Matthews has scored 50 goals in a 50 game span of his own games. He doesn’t need to cool now to be productive later.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

Matthews has scored 50 goals in a 50 game span of his own games. He doesn’t need to cool now to be productive later.

To be fair, last years 0 goals in the second round does kind of stand out.

 

[Sypher04]

To be fair, last years 0 goals in the second round does kind of stand out.

I don’t think it’s a matter of getting hot at the wrong time and using up your luck though. Matthews had no shortage of chances to score in that series last year. He needs to execute and hopefully we don’t get stonewalled by Bob again in that scenario, but I don’t see any real reason to think him scoring now will be a determining factor in whether he scores when we need him to later

I think the stronger argument would be that we want to go into the playoffs with Matthews feeling good about his recent goalscoring.

 

[BTO]

View attachment 845397

It's kind of wild that OV "only" has 1 60-goal season when he has 8 50-goal seasons (9 if you count the 65-goal season as a 50-goal season as well.)

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

8 games left and he needs 7 goals, Montreal is next, and Martner is expected back.

He's got a shot

7 games left

 

[Dirty Dan]

It's kind of wild that OV "only" has 1 60-goal season when he has 8 50-goal seasons (9 if you count the 65-goal season as a 50-goal season as well.)

Most of the time he barely got to 50. Once he was like at 49in 17 18. Covid shortened was 48

 

[BTO]

Most of the time he barely got to 50. Once he was like at 49in 17 18. Covid shortened was 48

Well he had 56. Still, you're right. But you'd think with his consistency (with four 40-goal seasons too) he's have a couple of more exceptional seasons. But scoring is up now too so.

 

[filinski77]

It's kind of wild that OV "only" has 1 60-goal season when he has 8 50-goal seasons (9 if you count the 65-goal season as a 50-goal season as well.)

Well he had 56. Still, you're right. But you'd think with his consistency (with four 40-goal seasons too) he's have a couple of more exceptional seasons. But scoring is up now too so.

Yeah, worth noting that Ovi's best goalscoring years came in a lower scoring environment, plus some bad luck with lockout/suspensions/covid etc.

Not going to start an argument about adjusted goals, or Matthews vs. Ovi at all - but simply to add some mathematical context. Take what you want from it:

Adjust Ovi's career to all 3.11 goals/gp (which is the low side of what we've been at the last few years with all the rule and equipment changes), and he has 3 'adjusted' 60 goal seasons.

2010 would be the 4th if he didn't miss 10 games due to suspension + personal leave for his dads death. 2013 would have been the 5th, but half season lockout. 2014/2015 were just a few games off, and then 2020 was obviously the covid cutoff season.

Year	League Avg Goals	3.11 vs that year	Ovi GP	Ovi Goals	Goals - Adj to 3.11	3.11 - adj to 82gp
2023-24	3.11	0.0%​
2022-23	3.18	-2.2%​
2021-22	3.14	-1.0%​
2020-21	2.94	5.8%​
2019-20	3.02	3.0%​	68	48	49	60
2018-19	3.01	3.3%​	81	51	53
2017-18	2.97	4.7%​	82	49	51
2016-17	2.77	12.3%​	82	33	37
2015-16	2.71	14.8%​	79	50	57	60
2014-15	2.73	13.9%​	81	53	60
2013-14	2.74	13.5%​	78	51	58	61
2012-13	2.72	14.3%​	48	32	37	63
2011-12	2.73	13.9%​	78	38	43
2010-11	2.79	11.5%​	79	32	36
2009-10	2.84	9.5%​	72	50	55	62
2008-09	2.91	6.9%​	79	56	60
2007-08	2.78	11.9%​	82	65	73
2006-07	2.95	5.4%​	82	46	48
2005-06	3.08	1.0%​	81	52	53

 

[Sypher04]

Lots of ifs and maybes. Do I think Ovechkin could have also scored more than 1 60 goal season? Sure, likely. But I’m not sure that I personally put a lot of stock in adjusting only against the average scoring rate each season, simply because it’s a multitude of factors that go into how a player ultimately performs in the environment they are each in.

I think as well, someone would have to do a pretty deep analysis of where the extra offense in a given year even came from. What was the driving factors in the increase, and was it fairly uniform, more weighted to top offensive players, or on the back of higher production from depth offense. It’s an interesting discussion in the least

 

[Primary Assist]

70 would be the dream, but really I want to see him hit 65. McDavid's 64 last year was simply phenomenal, and I think a big part of Matthew's legacy will be having the best goalscoring season among his peers and generation (at least for now).

 

[Suntouchable13]

A hat-trick against MTL on Saturday would go a long way towards making a 70 goal season a reality.

 

[filinski77]

Lots of ifs and maybes. Do I think Ovechkin could have also scored more than 1 60 goal season? Sure, likely. But I’m not sure that I personally put a lot of stock in adjusting only against the average scoring rate each season, simply because it’s a multitude of factors that go into how a player ultimately performs in the environment they are each in.

I think as well, someone would have to do a pretty deep analysis of where the extra offense in a given year even came from. What was the driving factors in the increase, and was it fairly uniform, more weighted to top offensive players, or on the back of higher production from depth offense. It’s an interesting discussion in the least

Agreed that there's lots of ifs and maybes, which is why I stated that it was simply data.

I've done analysis of where the extra offense comes from, and there is definitely correlation that when the scoring in the league goes up, the top 1/10/30 players in the league also score more. If anything, I believe the last time I looked at it, it usually shows that the elite player scoring is actually higher of an increase than the average league-wide scoring increase has been.

Either way, no point in comparing, Matthews is definitely peaking at just as high of a level goalscoring wise as Ovechkin had. Let's see if he can win another 6 rockets after this season. Great for the league to see this type of dominance again from Matthews (goalscoring) and McDavbid (point scoring).

 

[WTFMAN99]

Matthews could have potentially had another 60 goal season

The 20-21 season he had 41 in 52 which is 64.6 (65) goal pace.

He could have had a cold slump etc but we talk about Ovechkin's luck with lockouts etc, the pandemic also kinda screwed Matthews.

It's cool to have guys like Matthews and prime Ovechkin in the league, just make it look easy.

 

[Regal]

Lots of ifs and maybes. Do I think Ovechkin could have also scored more than 1 60 goal season? Sure, likely. But I’m not sure that I personally put a lot of stock in adjusting only against the average scoring rate each season, simply because it’s a multitude of factors that go into how a player ultimately performs in the environment they are each in.

I think as well, someone would have to do a pretty deep analysis of where the extra offense in a given year even came from. What was the driving factors in the increase, and was it fairly uniform, more weighted to top offensive players, or on the back of higher production from depth offense. It’s an interesting discussion in the least

It’s definitely something where league scoring isn’t perfect and a deeper dive is necessary, but at the same time he had 53 goals one year where only two other players had more than 38. There’s currently 14 players with more than 38 goals and the season isn’t even over, and while you could argue part of it is a talent increase, you also have Reinhart and Hyman hitting 50. Hard to believe that wouldn’t be a 60+ goal season today.

 

[DueDiligence]

It's kind of wild that OV "only" has 1 60-goal season when he has 8 50-goal seasons (9 if you count the 65-goal season as a 50-goal season as well.)

Yes but Ovie did lead the league in goal scoring 9 times. This year will be Matthews 3rd time.

 

[D Wakaluk]

Auston Matthews such a bum in the playoffs that hes out produced Kucherov head to head their last two series.

I think what really shines through in these stats is Matthews 2nd round dominance

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

To be fair, last years 0 goals in the second round does kind of stand out.

Yeah, but hockey doesn't work like that. You can't go on a cold streak to save the heater for a more important time...

 

[The Podium]

Yes but Ovie did lead the league in goal scoring 9 times. This year will be Matthews 3rd time.

It’s crazy that midway through his career Matthews will have more Rockets at the same age but still be 6 back in total rockets.

 

[Strangle]

70 this season is still possible, but not very likely. Hopefully he gets 66 to pass Ovechkin (65) and McDavid (64) for most goals in a single season in the 21st century.

It’s honestly a coin flip

70 is a 50/50 at this point, Matthews has played many stretches of games over 7+ at a goal per game or more

 

[Strangle]

The observation that old men Crosby and Ovechkin are still putting up good numbers highlights that todays league is incredibly easier to score in and that todays stats need an asterisk when comparing to greater that 10 years ago.

Wrong

This is the way we used to enjoy hockey, and it’s so good that it’s back.

The asterisks need to be in that dreadful middle era of garbage we’ve been stuck with for 15+ years. The stand out is the shit years that Crosby and Ovechkin played in, not the awesome years that preceded it or the awesome years we are having now.

41 goals to win the rocket? Ya no thanks, I never want to see the league severed like it’s been in recent memory

 

[Strangle]

Yeah he's 40th all time in playoff goals per game. Over half of those ahead of him were playing in the run and gun era. He's also placed where he has while regularly drawing against Vezina goalies.

Would we like to see an insane year? Absolutely. Has he been terrible? Hardly. Those pushing that narrative are basically trolling or have heads lodged within posteriors.

Rask, vasi, price, bobrovsky, etc and the last two had the playoffs of legend

I don’t see drai having to battle with kind of talent in net.

 

[Strangle]

But people use this to act like this is how he plays all the time that’s the weird part. He has been an elite goal scorer in half of the series he has played in, all against Vezina caliber goalies and his two-way game has been outstanding since the Montreal series. He has also dealt with injury troubles in several of his playoff series and his few sub par ones bring his overall average down quite a bit. Either way he is fully capable of putting up a lengthy and dominant playoff run - he’s already had a 12 game point streak in the playoffs that ended when he took a slap shot to the hand in game 3 against Florida - I would wager not many active players have had point streaks that long to begin with.

I’d like to see how many goals those guys have scored in the playoffs against the goalies the leafs have had to try and deal with the last 6 years or so

 

[DueDiligence]

I’d like to see how many goals those guys have scored in the playoffs against the goalies the leafs have had to try and deal with the last 6 years or so

Regardless of which goalies and teams the Leafs have been against in the playoffs the last 6 years Matthews has not played up to his regular season performance. he's been good but not a dominant player.