Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

Ol' Jase · Apr 2, 2024

Three On Zero said:
8 more goals in 9 more games, what are the odds? Does Toronto have a tough schedule?

I’d say the odds are pretty good that he does it.

lipstickjunkie · Apr 2, 2024

Toronto only has eight games left, but the odds are decent. Probably like 30%

Dr Pepper · Apr 2, 2024

Three On Zero said:
8 more goals in 9 more games, what are the odds? Does Toronto have a tough schedule?

Well they just played Florida and that didn't stop him. :dunno:

There's a decent chance he goes on another heater and hits 70 this year. Should be fun to see if he does it.

Three On Zero · Apr 2, 2024

Ol' Jase said:
I’d say the odds are pretty good that he does it.

Schedule seems like a toss up, games could go either way. Will be cool if he can hit that 70 mark but all hell will break loose here with the 70 goals vs. 100 assists crowd

Divine · Apr 2, 2024

Auston Matthews stats while Marner has been away for injury for 3+ weeks, the team has gone through a flu bug and missed top 6 players and Rielly has been out:

11GP: 8G - 10A - 18P

How much would he score without Marner giving him tap-ins?

pcruz · Apr 2, 2024

pcruz said:
This is completely incorrect.

The first half of the season Toronto had absolutely atrocious goaltending and only won games because of the efforts of Matthews and Nylander, who normally alternated great games.

Matthews has almost all of his goals in tight situations:

Jamie Maclennan said it on the radio a couple weeks back - one of his buddies runs an advanced stats site and they track goals scored either down by a goal, tied, or up by 1.

Almost all of Matthews' goals fall into those categories.

Which makes almost all of his goals crucial to the success of the team.

Very rarely has he scored the 5th goal of a blowout, or empty net goals.

Also, he had scored almost 1/4 of the team's goals this year, despite still ranking in the 50s of players' power play time on ice.

I decided to do a little more in-depth into this.

Of the 62 goals scored thus far,

Matthews has scored 46 of his goals in wins, 7 goals in overtime losses, and 9 goals in regulation losses.

He has 9 first goals in the game thus far.

5 goals scored in order to bring the team from down 2 goals to within 1.

15 goals to tie games.

18 goals to take the lead - this includes the 9 first goal of the game situations.

12 goals to give the team a 2 goal lead.

That means that of the 62 goals scored this season, only 12 haven't really had any effect on the outcome of the game.

Matthews Goal Effects 2023-2024 Season

Goal #	Game #	Leafs Score	Opponent Score	1st Goal	Down 2	Tying Goal	Go Ahead	Insurance	Win?

1	1	2	2			y			w
2	1	4	5		y				w
3	1	5	5			y			w
4	2	1	1			y			w
5	2	2	1				y		w
6	2	6	3						w
7	6	4	0						w
8	10	2	2			y			otl
9	11	2	2			y			l
10	11	3	3			y			l
11	11	4	4			y			l
12	12	2	4						w
13	12	3	4		y				w
14	17	1	1			y			w
15	22	1	2		y				otl
16	22	3	3			y			otl
17	24	2	0					y	w
18	24	3	0						w
19	25	1	0	y			y		otl
20	26	1	0	y			y		w
21	26	6	3						w
22	27	4	5		y				otl
23	27	5	5			y			otl
24	29	1	1			y			l
25	29	2	2			y			l
26	30	1	1			y			l
27	31	1	0	y			y		w
28	31	3	1					y	w
29	33	2	1				y		otl
30	36	2	1				y		w
31	38	2	0					y	w
32	39	2	1				y		w
33	39	3	1					y	w
34	42	1	0	y			y		l
35	43	1	2		y				w
36	43	2	2			y			w
37	43	4	2					y	w
38	45	1	0	y			y		w
39	46	1	0	y			y		w
40	47	3	1					y	w
41	49	3	2				y		w
42	50	1	0	y			y		l
43	52	1	1			y			w
44	52	2	1				y		w
45	52	3	1					y	w
46	53	1	0	y			y		w
47	53	5	1						w
48	53	7	1						w
49	54	2	1				y		w
50	55	2	0					y	w
51	55	4	2					y	w
52	56	7	3						w
53	59	3	0						w
54	62	2	1				y		w
55	65	4	1						w
56	68	1	0	y			y		w
57	68	3	1					y	w
58	69	6	3						w
59	71	3	2				y		l
60	73	3	0						w
61	74	2	0					y	w
62	74	6	4					y	w









1st Goals	9
Goals to go within 1	5
Game tying goals	15
Go ahead goals	18
Insurance goals	12
Goals scored in wins	46
Goals scored in OTL	7
Goals scored in losses	9

The90 · Apr 2, 2024

Divine said:
Auston Matthews stats while Marner has been away for injury for 3+ weeks, the team has gone through a flu bug and missed top 6 players and Rielly has been out:

11GP: 8G - 10A - 18P

How much would he score without Marner giving him tap-ins?

Is that good?

pcruz said:
I decided to do a little more in-depth into this.

Of the 62 goals scored thus far,

Matthews has scored 46 of his goals in wins, 7 goals in overtime losses, and 9 goals in regulation losses.

He has 9 first goals in the game thus far.

5 goals scored in order to bring the team from down 2 goals to within 1.

15 goals to tie games.

18 goals to take the lead - this includes the 9 first goal of the game situations.

12 goals to give the team a 2 goal lead.

That means that of the 62 goals scored this season, only 12 haven't really had any effect on the outcome of the game.

Matthews Goal Effects 2023-2024 Season
Goal # Game # Leafs Score Opponent Score 1st Goal Down 2 Tying Goal Go Ahead Insurance Win?
1
1
2
2
y w
2
1
4
5
y w
3
1
5
5
y w
4
2
1
1
y w
5
2
2
1
y w
6
2
6
3
w
7
6
4
0
w
8
10
2
2
y otl
9
11
2
2
y l
10
11
3
3
y l
11
11
4
4
y l
12
12
2
4
w
13
12
3
4
y w
14
17
1
1
y w
15
22
1
2
y otl
16
22
3
3
y otl
17
24
2
0
y w
18
24
3
0
w
19
25
1
0
y y otl
20
26
1
0
y y w
21
26
6
3
w
22
27
4
5
y otl
23
27
5
5
y otl
24
29
1
1
y l
25
29
2
2
y l
26
30
1
1
y l
27
31
1
0
y y w
28
31
3
1
y w
29
33
2
1
y otl
30
36
2
1
y w
31
38
2
0
y w
32
39
2
1
y w
33
39
3
1
y w
34
42
1
0
y y l
35
43
1
2
y w
36
43
2
2
y w
37
43
4
2
y w
38
45
1
0
y y w
39
46
1
0
y y w
40
47
3
1
y w
41
49
3
2
y w
42
50
1
0
y y l
43
52
1
1
y w
44
52
2
1
y w
45
52
3
1
y w
46
53
1
0
y y w
47
53
5
1
w
48
53
7
1
w
49
54
2
1
y w
50
55
2
0
y w
51
55
4
2
y w
52
56
7
3
w
53
59
3
0
w
54
62
2
1
y w
55
65
4
1
w
56
68
1
0
y y w
57
68
3
1
y w
58
69
6
3
w
59
71
3
2
y l
60
73
3
0
w
61
74
2
0
y w
62
74
6
4
y w
1st Goals
9
Goals to go within 1
5
Game tying goals
15
Go ahead goals
18
Insurance goals
12
Goals scored in wins
46
Goals scored in OTL
7
Goals scored in losses
9

I love when you bring facts to a shitty argument

pcruz · Apr 2, 2024

The90 said:
I love when you bring facts to a shitty argument

I decided to do the same for the other 3 Hart Trophy candidates this season.

This is how Kucherov, Mackinnon, and McDavid compare to Matthews:

	Kucherov	Mackinnon	McDavid	Matthews
1st Goals	4	6	8	9
Goals to go within 1	3	4	1	5
Game tying goals	4	9	6	15
Go ahead goals	11	12	12	18
Insurance goals	14	7	4	12
Garbage time goals	10	15	6	12
Goals scored in wins	32	38	24	46
Goals scored in OTL	4	2	0	7
Goals scored in losses	6	7	5	9

34 · Apr 2, 2024

Divine said:
Auston Matthews stats while Marner has been away for injury for 3+ weeks, the team has gone through a flu bug and missed top 6 players and Rielly has been out:

11GP: 8G - 10A - 18P

How much would he score without Marner giving him tap-ins?

Very true. Matthews has been charging along without Marner on his wing. Goes to show just how amazing he really is. AM34 is a Generational.

v00d00daddy · Apr 2, 2024

Ol' Jase said:
Well, McDavid is certainly a better player than Matthews. Surely that isn’t up for discussion.

Yup. He is.

What IS up for discussion, especially in this thread about goal scoring, is that Matthews is the best goal scorer this league has seen in quite a while.

He’s a better goal scorer than McDavid. Surely that isn’t up for discussion

34 · Apr 2, 2024

Ol' Jase said:
Well, McDavid is certainly a better player than Matthews. Surely that isn’t up for discussion.

Matthews is a WAY better goal scorer than McDavid, it is not even close. No debate. Matthews is the best goal scorer in the World. No one is on his level.

McDavid is a faster skater and better passer. It is McDavids speed that makes him so successful, his ability to make plays at full speed.

Both McDavid and Matthews are 2 of the very best Generational players in the World. Edmonton and Toronto are lucky to have them.

Ol' Jase · Apr 2, 2024

v00d00daddy said:
Yup. He is.

What IS up for discussion, especially in this thread about goal scoring, is that Matthews is the best goal scorer this league has seen in quite a while.

He’s a better goal scorer than McDavid. Surely that isn’t up for discussion

Yes, Matthews is a better goal scorer than McDavid.

Strangle · Apr 2, 2024

Sypher04 said:
Anyone using empty netters to try to minimize Matthews is an utter donkey. He has 2 all season, and only 10 in his entire career.

Ovechkin by comparison has 57.

“Empty net goals are for p***yes”
- Auston Matthews

lipstickjunkie said:
Toronto only has eight games left, but the odds are decent. Probably like 30%

I think it’s 50% if he can go goal per game + to end the season

authentic · Apr 2, 2024

Strangle said:
“Empty net goals are for p***yes”
- Auston Matthews

I think it’s 50% if he can go goal per game + to end the season

Agreed, considering he was actually over a goal per game for more than half of this season so far.

The Hanging Jowl · Apr 2, 2024

Ol' Jase said:
I’d say the odds are pretty good that he does it.

He can be a bit streaky. All it takes one 2 or 3 goal game and it becomes very interesting. It really doesn't help the Leafs so I'm fairly meh about this except I would love to see another 70 goal corer for the first time in ages.

NoName · Apr 2, 2024

70 this season is still possible, but not very likely. Hopefully he gets 66 to pass Ovechkin (65) and McDavid (64) for most goals in a single season in the 21st century.

34 · Apr 2, 2024

Very very impressive stat

Leksand · Apr 2, 2024

34 said:
Very very impressive stat

View attachment 845217

Maybe I’m missing something here but when I calculate Gretzky’s goals per game his first eight seasons I get 0.86 (and I surmise he had decent average assists per game as well). Is the number in the graphic including seasons Matthews didn’t play yet?

Ol' Jase · Apr 2, 2024

Leksand said:
Maybe I’m missing something here but when I calculate Gretzky’s goals per game his first eight seasons I get 0.86 (and I surmise he had decent average assists per game as well). Is the number in the graphic including seasons Matthews didn’t play yet?

It’s all three players ENTIRE CAREER averages

Leksand · Apr 2, 2024

Ol' Jase said:
It’s all three players ENTIRE CAREER averages

And Gretzky’s is much much much better. I really don’t understand what you all are talking about here.

Regal · Apr 2, 2024

Would be cool if he got 70 and the 3 scoring leaders all top 140 points. Could be a year like 92-93 where lots of seasons get referenced all the time.

JukofYork · Apr 2, 2024

Three On Zero said:
Schedule seems like a toss up, games could go either way. Will be cool if he can hit that 70 mark but all hell will break loose here with the 70 goals vs. 100 assists crowd

It shouldnt. 70 goals is way more impressive than 100 assists. Both are sick but one is much more sicker

Three On Zero · Apr 2, 2024

JukofYork said:
It shouldnt. 70 goals is way more impressive than 100 assists. Both are sick but one is much more sicker

70 goals is the more impressive feat

The Grim Reaper · Apr 2, 2024

The observation that old men Crosby and Ovechkin are still putting up good numbers highlights that todays league is incredibly easier to score in and that todays stats need an asterisk when comparing to greater that 10 years ago.

Ol' Jase · Apr 2, 2024

JukofYork said:
It shouldnt. 70 goals is way more impressive than 100 assists. Both are sick but one is much more sicker

Well, 8 different players have scored 70 goals in a season. Only 3 players ever have scored 100 assists.

Can’t they both be equally sick?

Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

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