CokenoPepsi
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Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96
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filinski77
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You have to consider as well that Ovechkin got a lot of those full-2 min powerplays simply because of the fact that he was playing the d-man role, and didn't have to skate a ton.
Matthews would be a lot less effective playing the full 2-mins on his powerplay setup based on his role in that powerplay. And then if you wanted to switch him to D and have him play the full 2 mins, his efficiency would go down due to being in a less advantageous position to score goals.
Yeah Ovi had the cheat code of just standing at the marks and firing one timers. Everyone knew what was happening, everyone knew they had to stop it, no one could.
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Effortless sexy.
When I think Senators were in full Tank Mode with Brian Elliott and we could have da 'skog and blew that, and we could have thrown caution to the wind and tanked for Matthews and didn't...sigh.
Dude is an absolute beast and he just comes out of nowhere and pops 3-4. He'll pass Sundin within 3-4 years; now Sundin did play during the Dead Puck Era so he might have had a few hundred more in a more open league but still...
Dude is an absolute beast and he just comes out of nowhere and pops 3-4. He'll pass Sundin within 3-4 years; now Sundin did play during the Dead Puck Era so he might have had a few hundred more in a more open league but still...
filinski77
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Exactly - he could do that for 3.5 mins of a 5 min major because he was effective while not having to move more.
It's also scary to think how many goals Mathews would already be at it fi he was a better PP Goal guy.
He is probably going to end the season with the best goal scoring season and 5th best one as well since the lockout.
Right now his best PPG season of 16 isn't even good enough for top 50 and he has 12 right now.
I don't think that it is a stretch to say that AM is the best ES goal scorer since the lockout and perhaps since expansion at the same point of other players careers.
Yeah he might get a few more opps per game as it's a little lower than Ovi's prime but it won't make up for the fact that Ovi just played more PP time regardless of opps.
filinski77
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Raw totals aside, Matthews has surpassed Sundin by a large margin already.
Top-10 point finishes:
Matthews = 5/6/9/10(current)
Sundin = 4/7
Top-10 goal finishes:
Matthews = 1/1/1(current)/2/3
Sundin = 2/8/10
He's got comparable stats to Lemeiux goals wise at EV at similar points in their career which is a testament to how good his scoring actually has been.
Edit: just did the math.
Lemieux - 0.47 ES goals per game by age 26.
Matthews - 0.48 ES goals per game by age 26.
Pretty damn good when factoring eras.
hamzarocks
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Mqtthews is better than Sundin but he has a system designed for him and has elite play making wingers to find him
Marner + Nylander both.
Sundin had Moginly for 1 year really but besides that lacked an elite line mate
Matthews is the better player + talent but he has better situation around him to be putting up pts/goals
filinski77
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"He is probably going to end the season with the best goal scoring season and 5th best one as well since the lockout."
Are you implying that "best" = biggest number? As of right now Ovechkin's 2008 was still better than Matthews this year, and I'd argue his 2015 is slightly ahead too.
2024 | 2008 | 2015 | ||||||||
| Matthews | 45 | Ovechkin | 65 | Ovechkin | 53 | |||||
| 2nd | 39 | 15% | 2nd | 52 | 25% | 2nd | 43 | 23% | ||
| 5th | 32 | 41% | 5th | 43 | 51% | 5th | 37 | 43% | ||
| 10th | 29 | 55% | 10th | 40 | 63% | 10th | 33 | 61% | ||
| 20th | 25 | 80% | 20th | 32 | 103% | 20th | 28 | 89% | ||
| 30th | 22 | 105% | 30th | 29 | 124% | 30th | 27 | 96% |
Yeah i know you said there are different ways to get to 800, just that all your examples of 7 60 goal, 8 50 goal seasons, etc dont really mean much considering it assumes 0 goals for the rest of the seasons. Yes when you say "or equivalent production" thats more accurate but its basically the same as what the other poster is saying by showing that the average number of goals matthews needs is still high but not unreasonable.
In terms of powerplays, yes i think its a given that no matter what matthews will never approach the powerplay time that ovechkin has recieved in his career. I am not suggesting ovechkins incredible powerplay time is due to luck (although you could maybe argue that his first few seasons were when powerplays in the league overall went through the roof). What i am suggesting is that matthews incredibly low power play time thus far is due to being quite unlucky and that this will likely even out over time. Will he get up to ovechkins powerplay times ever during a single season - probably not. But if toronto ever got a few seasons of top powerplay time in the league as washington got during some of ovechkins early years then this will make the road to 800 quite a bit easier.
Washington has recieved more powerplay time than toronto during their respective careers. As far as i can see toronto has been ~27th in power play time while washington has been closer to middle of the pack. If someone has a good site that tracks this all the way back to 2005 that would be helpful.
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I was talking strictly counting stat wise, adjusted would be different.
2008 will be debatable for sure but by 2015 Ovi was really reliant on the PP and aside from goal scoring AM does more in the current season than Ovi did in 15 but I'm sure all of this will be hashed out in the off season thread that is no doubt coming.
Yeah I mean we can just look at it from the perspective of averaging 30 goals a season from 2024/25 out and it's still a tall ask. There's a reason that the list only includes 3 players with 800 or more right now. It takes a massive peak like Gretz, insane longevity like Howe or insane consistency like Ovi. Matthews has to hit on one of those to make it. His peak and likely no one's peak will ever hit Gretzky's, it's just to tall of an order. So he is going to have to make up the rest of the ground later on in his career.
We'll never know if Lemieux or Bossy could have gotten there as both were on some pretty insane trajectories but their health just couldn't keep up.
On his current pace Matthews could reasonably be expected to hit 500 goals by his 782nd game, which I think will happen in his 10th season when he will be 28 years old. Which would make him the 5th fastest to do it, surpassing Ovi by 19 games but being behind Hull, Bossy, Lemieux and Gretz.
If he can hit that mark I would consider that a pretty solid marker for him to be on pace but even then that is another 65 goals for each of the next 2 seasons to get there, if he finishes with 70 this year.
I think if he's going to hit it he needs to at least get a few more 60 goal seasons under his belt before hitting age 30 as it seems to be the time when most goal scorers are starting to fade. By 33 many take a big step back and by 35 many more take a pretty big step back. So in order to bank some insurance against age, wear and tear he's gonna need to compile early. My entire thought process behind pushing for more 60+goal seasons early is I don't think he will have the longevity of Howe nor the consistency of Ovi so stockpiling big seasons now and just compiling later on is probably his only real hope of hitting 800+ IMO.
How about Matthews 2021 year?
If you want to narrowly view the best goal scoring season just as how it compares to 5 other players from that year. Matthews was 24% ahead of #2, 37% ahead of 5th, then 58%, 78%, and 105%. That is comparable to say the least.
Gordie Howe played when seasons were 70 games long and scoring was lower. Matthews can eclipse 800 goals if he keeps his peak going another few years then hovers around a 35 goal average until his late 30s. Health is the only thing that should stop him really.
Has nothing to do with him not being better on the powerplay, he’s a better powerplay goal scorer than Ovechkin he just doesn’t play nearly as much.
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I was responding to a claim that goalies sucked when in the 80s and 90s.
Gordie Howe also played 26 seasons just in the NHL and another 6 seasons in the WHA.
There's a reason I list him as the example of longevity. Sure Matthews could hover around 35 goals per season on average well into his late 30's, it's just incredibly unlikely. People really don't grasp just how rare that is.
WHA is irrelevant to the discussion. I don’t think it’s crazy to think Matthews will be fully capable of 30-40 goal seasons we’ll into his 30s so like I say it will come down to health and how long he wants to play for. The rarity you speak of is just as rare as being a top 5 goal scoring talent of all-time which Matthews is so we’ll have to see how it all plays out.
Doesn’t mean I expect it to happen either, but really how shocked are we supposed to be when the player who could be closing in on 600 goals by age 30 ends up over 800?
The Podium
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Almost as rare as 70 goal seasons....
Its only rare because generational goal scorers are rare
Health is really the main concern.
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Would love to see him get 70 - that would be amazing!
Kane One
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Dude needs to score 50 in 50 already. It’s been a while since the last one.
