Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[tfwnogf]

wow, arizona's future leading scorer of all time doin numbers

 

[BB79]

Haha. Hasek was trash.

He only won 6 vezinas in an 8 year span. What a bum

 

[apparentlyclueless]

His career GPG is wayyyy higher than Ovie. Bossy was the purest goal scorer in NHl history. Only player close to his goals per game was Mario. They were around .75 goals per game in career. That’s crazy

It's a crazy stat, but you have to look at league-wide scoring and performance vs. peers when comparing players across eras like that.

What benefits Bossy in this comparison is that his career ended when he was still in his prime.

During his ten years in the league Bossy only led the league in goals twice. If we remove Gretzky from the equation he gets one more first place finish. Removing Kurri as well (since he played with Gretzky) gives Bossy two more.

That's still four less than Ovechkin. If we only look at Ovechkins first ten years in the league it's a 5-5 tie.

People often bring up Bossy's absolutely amazing achievement of nine straight 50-goal seasons. But when you look at context, during his career there were 68 50-goal seasons in the league, including Bossy's 9. Remove Bossy's last season (when he didn't score 50 anymore) and the number is 63. So during the time Bossy was having 50 goal seasons he had ~14 % of all 50 goal seasons in the league.

During Ovechkin's career there have been 31 50-goal seasons in the league and of those Ovechkin had 9. Remove last two years (when Ovi didn't score 50 anymore) and the number goes down to 26. So Ovechkin had 34 percent of all 50-goal seasons in the league during the time he was scoring 50 goals.

And if we look at percentage lead over second in goals during their whole career (and generously remove Gretzky in case of Bossy) Ovi has 44 % more goals than the second (Crosby), while Bossy had 24 % more goals than the second after Gretzky (Dionne). When you keep in mind that Ovechkin has played almost twice the number of games than Bossy did, that's absolutely crazy. Much crazier than Bossy's gpg when you look at context.

Bossy was amazing but Ovi is the GOAT goal scorer, there's no way around it.

On topic, Matthews has a chance to surpass Ovechkin and it would be absolutely bonkers to see him score 900 goals. I'm hoping he does it one day.

 

[Calderon]

Gpg.

There should be a screening for people so that you can't post certain opinions due to them being objectively wrong. Bossy being the greatest/best/whatever goal scorer of all time is a one of them.

And don't get me wrong, he should be on everyone's top10 list somewhere there, but probably outside of top 5.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

No I wasn't he could accomplish one of those 60 goal seasons at 38 for all that the numbers matter. Never once did I specify he would need to do it by 33 years old or that he only had until 33 to do it. You are just using that as some arbitrary cutoff to make it look easy even by his standard and I assure you it will be far from easy even for him.

The reason I'm using larger goal numbers for the earlier points of his career is that it's a lot easier to compile while your younger than when your older. The vast majority of scorers do not post high scoring totals later on in their careers, especially scorers who have the injury history he has already.

I don't think you are realizing the actual difficulty of what you think is likely to happen. It's extremely unlikely he finishes his career with the most ever 30 goal seasons by a significant number higher than anyone else has ever reached. You are talking about the most consistent goal scorer the NHL has ever seen from a guy who has missed more time due to injury already than both Howe and Ovi have in their entire careers. It's actually much more likely that his injury history catches up to him and he slows down later on in his career than he reaches 800.

Not sure how to be more clear but we know how many goals 4th overall has. The only way he has to do what you suggested is if he is doing it by 33 years old. He also doesn't have to record 12 seasons of 34 goals every season. That's an average. Every single time he hits MORE than 34 goals, that average drops going forward. For example, if he hit exactly 50 twice and 40 once, he would never have to hit 30 again. The only way he has to do what you said is if you are expecting him to hit over 1000 goals.

On injuries, you are correct. That's the tell. That said, I would also argue you are underestimating how much more productive he has been. It took OV literally thousands more minutes to produce his numbers. To the 250 goal mark OV had played over 1200 more minutes EXCLUSIVELY on the PP. That's the equivalent of giving Matthews an extra 60+ games of exclusively PP time.

 

[Daximus]

Not sure how to be more clear but we know how many goals 4th overall has. The only way he has to do what you suggested is if he is doing it by 33 years old. He also doesn't have to record 12 seasons of 34 goals every season. That's an average. Every single time he hits MORE than 34 goals, that average drops going forward. For example, if he hit exactly 50 twice and 40 once, he would never have to hit 30 again. The only way he has to do what you said is if you are expecting him to hit over 1000 goals.

On injuries, you are correct. That's the tell. That said, I would also argue you are underestimating how much more productive he has been. It took OV literally thousands more minutes to produce his numbers. To the 250 goal mark OV had played over 1200 more minutes EXCLUSIVELY on the PP. That's the equivalent of giving Matthews an extra 60+ games of exclusively PP time.

It's true every time he gets above the average he needs the average goes down and if he can get the average into the 20ish goal territory he has a shot but it's still a massive ask and will require him to be a lot more healthy than he has been to date over the later course of his career which is generally unlikely.

Ovi has had one of the prerequisites I initially stated you'd need to get there and that is consistency. To the point that he is already the most consistent goal scorer the league has ever seen. 3-50 goal seasons after his 30th birthday, 6-40 goal seasons after his 30th birthday. Those kinds of numbers are insanity and are generally only going to be approached by someone who has insane durability which Matthews has not. Again Matthews has already missed more time due to injury at 26 years old than Ovi has missed at 38 years old.

Matthews front half has been better than Ovi, no one can debate that. But will his back half be at least a smaller order of magnitude as good? It's highly highly unlikely based on his past injury history.

At this point I'd still take the under on Matthews hitting 800 goals. We need to see what he starts to look like post 30 and again post 35 to really get a feel if he will make it. I will concede that no one expected Ovi to get there but again his post 30 consistency and health is like all time levels of good.

 

[RogerRoger]

He only won 6 vezinas in an 8 year span. What a bum

But did he peaked higher than Price?

It's really annoying to have, once again, the best sniper in the NHL in the Panthers' division. At least unlike Ovie, Matthews doesn't kill a player every game. Small mercies.

 

[Rob Brown]

wow, arizona's future leading scorer of all time doin numbers

Yes, he will be the best player to ever come out of that state.

 

[gtrower]

He's on track to be the best American player ever and have a real shot at the Gretzky (Ovechkin?) goals record. These are facts.

“real shot” is hard to say for somebody that isn’t even halfway there yet. But he’s certainly laying down the foundation needed to make a run at it.

 

[ShootIt]

That's amazing.
Wild he's at a 0.9GPG pace.

 

[Guinnes66]

It's true every time he gets above the average he needs the average goes down and if he can get the average into the 20ish goal territory he has a shot but it's still a massive ask and will require him to be a lot more healthy than he has been to date over the later course of his career which is generally unlikely.

Ovi has had one of the prerequisites I initially stated you'd need to get there and that is consistency. To the point that he is already the most consistent goal scorer the league has ever seen. 3-50 goal seasons after his 30th birthday, 6-40 goal seasons after his 30th birthday. Those kinds of numbers are insanity and are generally only going to be approached by someone who has insane durability which Matthews has not. Again Matthews has already missed more time due to injury at 26 years old than Ovi has missed at 38 years old.

Matthews front half has been better than Ovi, no one can debate that. But will his back half be at least a smaller order of magnitude as good? It's highly highly unlikely based on his past injury history.

At this point I'd still take the under on Matthews hitting 800 goals. We need to see what he starts to look like post 30 and again post 35 to really get a feel if he will make it. I will concede that no one expected Ovi to get there but again his post 30 consistency and health is like all time levels of good.

i dont think anyone disputes that ovechkin has had unparalleled success in the back half of his career and you are right that its far from a given that matthews reaches >800 goals as he will indeed need many things to go right including good health.

All that is being pointed out is that its a bit misleading the way you phrase it that he needs 7 - 60 goal seasons just to get into the top 4 as it assumes that he scores 0 goals in all the other seasons he plays until age 38 (assuming he plays that long).

And the other point being highlighted is that so far matthews does appear to be a far more efficient scorer than ovechkin considering he has not had the fortunate luck of getting such a disproportionate amount of powerplay time. This is an important point as its entirely possible that matthews unfortunate string of low powerplay time simply regresses to the mean as his career progresses. If the team he is on has a few seasons of top powerplay time in the back half of his career then this variable alone will make it an easier path to get to 800. Of course poewerplay time is out of his control and theres no knowing how that will play out but generally in sports things do revert to the mean over 20 year playing career. Personally i would be very dissapointed if he falls short of 800 goals simply due to getting some of the worst powerplay time luck compared to all other top scorers.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Haha. Hasek was trash.

Wh...what? He's one of the best goalies in NHL history. I hope this was a joke. The guy almost singlehandedly won a Stanley Cup and DID singlehandedly win an Olympic gold. This is crazy so please explain that you're not crazy.

 

[BLNY]

It's a crazy stat, but you have to look at league-wide scoring and performance vs. peers when comparing players across eras like that.

What benefits Bossy in this comparison is that his career ended when he was still in his prime.

During his ten years in the league Bossy only led the league in goals twice. If we remove Gretzky from the equation he gets one more first place finish. Removing Kurri as well (since he played with Gretzky) gives Bossy two more.

That's still four less than Ovechkin. If we only look at Ovechkins first ten years in the league it's a 5-5 tie.

People often bring up Bossy's absolutely amazing achievement of nine straight 50-goal seasons. But when you look at context, during his career there were 68 50-goal seasons in the league, including Bossy's 9. Remove Bossy's last season (when he didn't score 50 anymore) and the number is 63. So during the time Bossy was having 50 goal seasons he had ~14 % of all 50 goal seasons in the league.

During Ovechkin's career there have been 31 50-goal seasons in the league and of those Ovechkin had 9. Remove last two years (when Ovi didn't score 50 anymore) and the number goes down to 26. So Ovechkin had 34 percent of all 50-goal seasons in the league during the time he was scoring 50 goals.

And if we look at percentage lead over second in goals during their whole career (and generously remove Gretzky in case of Bossy) Ovi has 44 % more goals than the second (Crosby), while Bossy had 24 % more goals than the second after Gretzky (Dionne). When you keep in mind that Ovechkin has played almost twice the number of games than Bossy did, that's absolutely crazy. Much crazier than Bossy's gpg when you look at context.

Bossy was amazing but Ovi is the GOAT goal scorer, there's no way around it.

On topic, Matthews has a chance to surpass Ovechkin and it would be absolutely bonkers to see him score 900 goals. I'm hoping he does it one day.

I don't think you can do that sort of comparative analysis without putting the shoe on the other foot. What does Ovi accomplish in another era? One where he'd have to use a wooden stick? Training methods of the day? Impact of coaching methods? What would Bossy accomplish today?

I will certainly give credit where it's due, and Ovi's ability to maintain performance after 30 has been remarkable. Very few have been able to do it.

 

[AvroArrow]

“real shot” is hard to say for somebody that isn’t even halfway there yet. But he’s certainly laying down the foundation needed to make a run at it.

Agreed, I won't call it a real shot until he's at about age 34-35 still producing. Lots of elite players produce in their 20s, but the all the time greats continue that production later into their careers.

What I will say is, he's off to a damn good start, but still waaaay too early. Maybe he will maybe he wont, but anything can happen in hockey, injuries etc. But what he's doing right now is absolutely insane.

 

[34]

Hatty in 7 min.

The very best in the business. Everyone needs to take a minute and enjoy what this generational goalscorer is doing. Just incredible.

 

[Quinning]

I hate the Leafs as much as anyone, but this is the last player in the entire league want to see with the puck on his stick in a scoring position. He can turn low percentage scoring chances into highlight reel goals.

He only won 6 vezinas in an 8 year span. What a bum

And a Hart trophy.

 

[34]

Hes going to break Ovechkins gosl scoring record in 10 years

3rd richard by year 8. Insane goal scorwr

He is going to shatter Ovechkin‘s record. He is going to beat Gretzky’s.

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

Can't even hit 50 in 50. What a bum.

Dudes scoring with ease this season it seems.

 

[hamzarocks]

He is going to shatter Ovechkin‘s record. He is going to beat Gretzky’s.

Gretzky wont hold the record

OV will beat him next 2 years

 

[34]

Gretzky wont hold the record

OV will beat him next 2 years

You might be right.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

All things considered, he might already be the greatest to wear the blue since Mats Sundin. Kinda nuts! First we had Sundin and then this guy, when will we ever run out of luck?

Luck isn’t the first thing that comes to my mind when I think of my time as a Leaf fan. Mostly pain really.

 

[JukofYork]

Ive been watching the leafs quite a bit this season. I would say ive caught about 20-30 games. And man there are some thing people who just watch highlights dont see with this guy. He is really strong on the puck but he does it in a way where he positions his body really different. He also steals the puck really well..back checks and can pass great too.

Its hard to compare him to somebody. You cant say brett Hull because brett was only a sick sniper when Mathews is so much more.

I would say a less flashy Ovechkin if I had to compare.

Hockey has not seen a goal scorer like this in a very very long time. If there is the smallest spot available for the puck to go in..he somehow finds it.

Its gotta be defeating for leaf fans to have a player like this and the other 85% of your team pretty bad-average.

You give the leafs a good hard nosed 3rd line and they would be a great team...and some actual Defence...

 

[cowboy82nd]

Hes going to break Ovechkins gosl scoring record in 10 years

3rd richard by year 8. Insane goal scorwr

What record is that?

 

[Daximus]

i dont think anyone disputes that ovechkin has had unparalleled success in the back half of his career and you are right that its far from a given that matthews reaches >800 goals as he will indeed need many things to go right including good health.

All that is being pointed out is that its a bit misleading the way you phrase it that he needs 7 - 60 goal seasons just to get into the top 4 as it assumes that he scores 0 goals in all the other seasons he plays until age 38 (assuming he plays that long).

And the other point being highlighted is that so far matthews does appear to be a far more efficient scorer than ovechkin considering he has not had the fortunate luck of getting such a disproportionate amount of powerplay time. This is an important point as its entirely possible that matthews unfortunate string of low powerplay time simply regresses to the mean as his career progresses. If the team he is on has a few seasons of top powerplay time in the back half of his career then this variable alone will make it an easier path to get to 800. Of course poewerplay time is out of his control and theres no knowing how that will play out but generally in sports things do revert to the mean over 20 year playing career. Personally i would be very dissapointed if he falls short of 800 goals simply due to getting some of the worst powerplay time luck compared to all other top scorers.

I didn't state that is the only way that Matthews will reach 800+ as I've reiterated about 4 times already I followed that up with or equivalent production over a long and healthy career. But people seem to ignoring that part and focusing entirely on the illustration of what it would take in terms of 60 goal seasons from here on out.

Well the major difference between Matthews PP time and Ovi's has and likely always will be that that Ovi often played the close to or exactly the entire 2 minutes of PP at least as far as I'm aware. So unless Matthews either convinces his coach that he should play more time on the PP or his coaches force that on him it is unlikely he ever reaches Ovi's level of PP time during the bulk of career.

I don't think it has anything to do with luck. Ovi's teams likely weren't getting any more PP opps than Matthews teams have gotten, Ovi was just playing more time on every PP than Matthews has/is and I don't see that changing without a fundamentally different approach to PP's by the Leafs or any other team Matthews will be on it to shift the focus entirely to him like the Caps did with Ovi.

 

[Daximus]

Gretzky wont hold the record

OV will beat him next 2 years

He needs 59 more to beat it but time seems to be catching up with him a little bit. He's on pace for another 8 goals (22 total) this year which gets him into the 51 goal range. If he continues on this trajectory it's going to take him at least another 2 maybe 3 more seasons to beat it.