Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[Rants Mulliniks]

We saw Mario play during roughly the same era as Gretzky, so it’s really not that strange that the hockey world collectively agreed that Mario is better than Gretzky at goal scoring.

Beyond just watching, it also helps to know that Lemieux was pulling his numbers while having health problems that made it such that he could barely tie his own skates or at times where Dan Quinn was the second best scorer on his team. I mean, Quinn is no Messier, Kurri, Anderson etc.

 

[Moridin]

Raw totals aside, Matthews has surpassed Sundin by a large margin already.

Top-10 point finishes:
Matthews = 5/6/9/10(current)
Sundin = 4/7

Top-10 goal finishes:
Matthews = 1/1/1(current)/2/3
Sundin = 2/8/10

First round losses
Matthews - 6
Sundin - 4 (1 with QUE, 3 with TOR)

Playoff Series Won
Matthews - 1
Sundin - 8 (VAN 1, TOR 7, but was injured during one)

 

[Daximus]

WHA is irrelevant to the discussion. I don’t think it’s crazy to think Matthews will be fully capable of 30-40 goal seasons we’ll into his 30s so like I say it will come down to health and how long he wants to play for. The rarity you speak of is just as rare as being a top 5 goal scoring talent of all-time which Matthews is so we’ll have to see how it all plays out.

Doesn’t mean I expect it to happen either, but really how shocked are we supposed to be when the player who could be closing in on 600 goals by age 30 ends up over 800?

Oh he's definitely capable, any elite goal scorer is capable. Only two players have actually done it consistently enough post 30 years old to even touch 800.

Almost as rare as 70 goal seasons....

Its only rare because generational goal scorers are rare

Health is really the main concern.

I'd say it's actually quite a bit more rare than a 70 goal season even. Only two players have done it consistently enough post 30 years old to hit 800+.

You aren't grasping how rare Matthews' stats have been.

To give you an idea, Matthews is about to hit 350 goals. I can't predict the when but probably very soon, just 6 to go. To get to 350 it took OV:

581 GP 12, 562:58 TOI 3, 015:56 PPTOI 2,941 SOG

While 6 goals short, Matthews sits at:

532 GP 10, 511:37 TOI 1, 559:50 PPTOI 2,125 SOG

2000 extra minutes is close to 100 games in Matthews' time. Almost 1500 minutes of extra PP time. Over 38% more shots on goal by OV for the same result.

Matthews' production is full stop insane (hence why I say I don't think you are fully grasping it).

If nothing derails him (slump or injury), he could hit 500 by 28, though more likely 29. Only 2 players in the history of the NHL have EVER hit 500 before 30 years old (and both played in the 80's):

Gretzky at 25 years and 300 days

Bossy at 28 years and 345 days



Cut his PP proficiency in half if you want, it still just widens the gap.

Oh I definitely get it, he's on an insane pace but to get there he's going to need to be significantly healthier than he has been and the injuries he does have are going to need to not plague him down the line, He's already missed more time due to injury in his 8 years in the league than Gordie Howe missed in his 26 years in the league or Ovechkin has missed in his 19 years in the league.

I'm not saying it won't or can't happen, just that it is unlikely to happen. If I'm betting on it today I still take the under. If he keeps stringing together seasons like this and stays healthy over the next few years then I may change my stance but as of right now I don't think he hits 800 based on his injury history.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Oh I definitely get it, he's on an insane pace but to get there he's going to need to be significantly healthier than he has been and the injuries he does have are going to need to not plague him down the line, He's already missed more time due to injury in his 8 years in the league than Gordie Howe missed in his 26 years in the league or Ovechkin has missed in his 19 years in the league.

I'm not saying it won't or can't happen, just that it is unlikely to happen. If I'm betting on it today I still take the under. If he keeps stringing together seasons like this and stays healthy over the next few years then I may change my stance but as of right now I don't think he hits 800 based on his injury history.

The discussion was top 4. Two 50’s and one 40 and he doesn’t need any 30’s during his 30’s. Unless he retires early.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

First round losses
Matthews - 6
Sundin - 4 (1 with QUE, 3 with TOR)

Playoff Series Won
Matthews - 1
Sundin - 8 (VAN 1, TOR 7, but was injured during one)

How old was Sundin when he got his first of those 8 playoff wins? Just for to get the full picture here lol.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

We saw Mario play during roughly the same era as Gretzky, so it’s really not that strange that the hockey world collectively agreed that Mario is better than Gretzky at goal scoring.

I don't agree. Most of Mario's career was during the clutch and grab era. Important distinction because even then he rivaled Gretzky's best numbers. I honestly think he might be the best player in NHL history.

 

[Daximus]

The discussion was top 4. Two 50’s and one 40 and he doesn’t need any 30’s during his 30’s. Unless he retires early.

Given his injury history I still take the under on top 4 even at this point. Which is bare minimum another 423 goals from today out. Even if we concede he gets to 70 goals this year that's still another 398 goals, after the 369 goals he would have at the end of this year if he hits exactly 70.

That means he needs a greater production from the end of this season out then he has had up until the end of this season. Of course a longer career makes that more likely but I just don't think he will play long enough to do it. I'd say a really conservative estimate puts him around 36 or so when he retires, a more liberal one would take him to 38 likely. I can't see him playing until 40 but who knows. A lot of whether he sticks out a long career depends on how his body holds up, whether he ends up Cup chasing, or if he ends up putting up some really huge seasons and ends up record chasing later on. I just don't see him doing anything other than chasing the big record if he's close and maybe Cup chasing if he ends up putting up huge numbers and needs that Cup for his legacy. His body is going to be the biggest question mark and so far his injury history is not in a good enough place for me to bet on him playing well into his late 30's/early 40's.

 

[wetcoast]

But you said "if he was a better PP guy". He's fantastic, his team just doesn't get PP time.

Man this is exhibit A if why so many people push back on anything Leafs

In a post about how I was praising AM and referring to his counting stat on the PP this is your response?

Perhaps read the tone and intent of the entire list before trying to nitpick is my suggestion.

 

[GMofOilers]

We seen this pace last year by a player, its great to see again, Last year 41 goals after 50 games, this year Matthews 42 after 50 games. Lets see how comparable they are after 82 games.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Given his injury history I still take the under on top 4 even at this point. Which is bare minimum another 423 goals from today out. Even if we concede he gets to 70 goals this year that's still another 398 goals, after the 369 goals he would have at the end of this year if he hits exactly 70.

That means he needs a greater production from the end of this season out then he has had up until the end of this season. Of course a longer career makes that more likely but I just don't think he will play long enough to do it. I'd say a really conservative estimate puts him around 36 or so when he retires, a more liberal one would take him to 38 likely. I can't see him playing until 40 but who knows. A lot of whether he sticks out a long career depends on how his body holds up, whether he ends up Cup chasing, or if he ends up putting up some really huge seasons and ends up record chasing later on. I just don't see him doing anything other than chasing the big record if he's close and maybe Cup chasing if he ends up putting up huge numbers and needs that Cup for his legacy. His body is going to be the biggest question mark and so far his injury history is not in a good enough place for me to bet on him playing well into his late 30's/early 40's.

What injuries has he had that make you question hampering his longevity?

We seen this pace last year by a player, it’s great to see again, Last year 41 goals after 50 games, this year Matthews 42 after 50 games. Let’s see how comparable they are after 82 games.

One guy does it repeatedly, the other once.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Man this is exhibit A if why so many people push back on anything Leafs

In a post about how I was praising AM and referring to his counting stat on the PP this is your response?

Perhaps read the tone and intent of the entire list before trying to nitpick is my suggestion.

Firstly, I could care less what you or anyone push back on.

It was a simple question as it seems odd someone would imagine what his numbers would be if he was better at something he has been 3rd best in the world at doing. All we can imagine is whether he would keep it up if he actually got the opportunity.

 

[Daximus]

What injuries has he had that make you question hampering his longevity?

Mainly knee and wrist. I know he's obviously not hampered by them now but that may not be the case in the future. These things tend to have a chance of re-injury and when the body does start to feel the effects of age often times these injuries feel the effects first.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

What injuries has he had that make you question hampering his longevity? Ability maybe.


One guy does it repeatedly, the other once.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This is the ultimate level of pure haters grasping at straws to criticize the guy.

"Oh yeah, Phelps won six golds at the Olympics that year, well how many six silver Olympics does the guy have?"

Also, he's had 9 games with 3-assists, not that it matters. Ovi has 16. Gretzky had 224 lol.

224? that's wild

 

[wetcoast]

Firstly, I could care less what you or anyone push back on.

It was a simple question as it seems odd someone would imagine what his numbers would be if he was better at something he has been 3rd best in the world at doing. All we can imagine is whether he would keep it up if he actually got the opportunity.

I posted the PP goal stats since the lockout and the fact of the matter is that Matthew best season so far in counting PP goal stats has been 16 PPG in a season which is good for 69th.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Mainly knee and wrist. I know he's obviously not hampered by them now but that may not be the case in the future. These things tend to have a chance of re-injury and when the body does start to feel the effects of age often times these injuries feel the effects first.

Do you share the same concern for McDavid, who had a major knee issue and whose game centres on speed?

 

[Auston Marlander]

But did he peaked higher than Price?

It's really annoying to have, once again, the best sniper in the NHL in the Panthers' division. At least unlike Ovie, Matthews doesn't kill a player every game. Small mercies.

Unlike Ovie, Matthews does play defence.

 

[Daximus]

Do you share the same concern for McDavid, who had a major knee issue and whose game centres on speed?

Oh absolutely I think McDavid is likely going to lose a significant amount of speed later on in his career. Obviously I'd love to see both of them challenge for some records but I think it's unlikely.

 

[meefer]

As a Leaf's fan I'll simply say he's the best goal scorer I've seen to date. He has his advantages when compared to past greats, the most obvious for me being the stick he uses (Bossy/Gretz/Mario/etc didn't have today's composite) which allows for a quicker release and power with a wrist or snap shot, and greater accuracy as compared to yesteryears slapshot with lumber. Ovi has had that advantage as well. However, to suggest he will or won't become the best of all time is a nonsensical argument. We won't know until he retires. All the rest is conjecture.

I'll simply enjoy watching a hockey player doing something special because I love the game and what he's doing is fun.

 

[Video Nasty]

Some of us have watched all of their careers in their entirety. If I had to pick one guy with everything on the line, I would pick Lemieux. Don’t think I would even hesitate.

I would also take Lemieux over Ovechkin.

We saw Mario play during roughly the same era as Gretzky, so it’s really not that strange that the hockey world collectively agreed that Mario is better than Gretzky at goal scoring.

I’m referring to Ovechkin, not Lemieux.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

No I wasn't he could accomplish one of those 60 goal seasons at 38 for all that the numbers matter. Never once did I specify he would need to do it by 33 years old or that he only had until 33 to do it. You are just using that as some arbitrary cutoff to make it look easy even by his standard and I assure you it will be far from easy even for him.

The reason I'm using larger goal numbers for the earlier points of his career is that it's a lot easier to compile while your younger than when your older. The vast majority of scorers do not post high scoring totals later on in their careers, especially scorers who have the injury history he has already.

I don't think you are realizing the actual difficulty of what you think is likely to happen. It's extremely unlikely he finishes his career with the most ever 30 goal seasons by a significant number higher than anyone else has ever reached. You are talking about the most consistent goal scorer the NHL has ever seen from a guy who has missed more time due to injury already than both Howe and Ovi have in their entire careers. It's actually much more likely that his injury history catches up to him and he slows down later on in his career than he reaches 800.

I don't think you realize how good of a goal scorer he is.

His rookie season he finished 2nd in the league in goals with 40, 4 goals behind the leader, he also had a 13 game where he didn't score that year, without that slump he wins the rocket as a rookie.

Last year was considered a bad year and he STILL got 40.

If he does crack 70 he will be #3 all time on the franchise goal scoring list he's 21 away from that.

Mats Sundin is the current franchise

I'm not assuming he retires at any point just illustrating what kind of mountain that truly is that is why I said that or the equivalent over a long career.

It's going to take an insane level of consistency from even 360 goals to hit 800. Thats 440 more goals. If he plays until age 40, so 14 more seasons thats an average of 31 goals roughly per season for 14 more seasons. A feat only accomplished by 5 players. Add that to the eight 30+ goal seasons he has and that is a grand total of 22- 30 or more goal seasons making him by far the greatest and most consistent goal scorer the NHL has ever seen.

That is an unreasonable expectation.



Yeah that puts him at about 22 thirty or more goal seasons over the course of a 22 year career which has never been done.


To put that even more into perspective Gordie Howe has 22- 20 or more goal seasons over the course of a much much longer and much much more healthy career. Having missed less time due to injury over the course of his entire career than Matthews has missed by age 26.

I don't think you realize how good of a goal scorer he is.

He scored 40 as a rookie, good for 2nd in the league in goals, he also had a 13 game slump where he didn't score, without that slump he wins the rocket as a rookie.

Last year was considered a bad year and he he STILL got 40.

If he cracks 70 he will be #3 all time on the franchise goal scoring list he's 21 away from that.

Mats Sundin is the current franchise goal scoring leader with 420, it took him 981 games to get that, there is a very good chance Matthews gets that next year, he will be 27, and if he does he will do it in under 650 games.

Again Mats did it in 981.

40 goals is considered a down year.

That's not normal that's special.

420 goals in under 650 games isn't normal that's special.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

I don't think you realize how good of a goal scorer he is.

His rookie season he finished 2nd in the league in goals with 40, 4 goals behind the leader, he also had a 13 game where he didn't score that year, without that slump he wins the rocket as a rookie.

Last year was considered a bad year and he STILL got 40.

If he does crack 70 he will be #3 all time on the franchise goal scoring list he's 21 away from that.

Mats Sundin is the current franchise


I don't think you realize how good of a goal scorer he is.

He scored 40 as a rookie, good for 2nd in the league in goals, he also had a 13 game slump where he didn't score, without that slump he wins the rocket as a rookie.

Last year was considered a bad year and he he STILL got 40.

If he cracks 70 he will be #3 all time on the franchise goal scoring list he's 21 away from that.

Mats Sundin is the current franchise goal scoring leader with 420, it took him 981 games to get that, there is a very good chance Matthews gets that next year, he will be 27, and if he does he will do it in under 650 games.

Again Mats did it in 981.

40 goals is considered a down year.

That's not normal that's special.

420 goals in under 650 games isn't normal that's special.

That stat is insane lmao

 

[kevsh]

Connor Bedard on Auston:

'Bedard's impressive shot has drawn the attention of many hockey fans. One way he gets better is by watching Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews.

“I’ve watched so many YouTube videos of him shooting or whatever. I’ll do that and then go in the backyard and try to practise it," Bedard said. "I think he’s obviously the best in the world at especially that drag shot. He’s always somebody you can learn from in that aspect. He’s one of my favourite players too so I watch him all the time.” '

When an impressive as a shooter as Bedard is saying he watches Auston and tries to emulate him, that's pretty telling.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

That stat is insane lmao

I agree 100% which is my point, Matthews is different and has been since he entered the league.

 

[Daximus]

I don't think you realize how good of a goal scorer he is.

His rookie season he finished 2nd in the league in goals with 40, 4 goals behind the leader, he also had a 13 game where he didn't score that year, without that slump he wins the rocket as a rookie.

Last year was considered a bad year and he STILL got 40.

If he does crack 70 he will be #3 all time on the franchise goal scoring list he's 21 away from that.

Mats Sundin is the current franchise


I don't think you realize how good of a goal scorer he is.

He scored 40 as a rookie, good for 2nd in the league in goals, he also had a 13 game slump where he didn't score, without that slump he wins the rocket as a rookie.

Last year was considered a bad year and he he STILL got 40.

If he cracks 70 he will be #3 all time on the franchise goal scoring list he's 21 away from that.

Mats Sundin is the current franchise goal scoring leader with 420, it took him 981 games to get that, there is a very good chance Matthews gets that next year, he will be 27, and if he does he will do it in under 650 games.

Again Mats did it in 981.

40 goals is considered a down year.

That's not normal that's special.

420 goals in under 650 games isn't normal that's special.

No one is saying what he's done isn't special. Their debating whether he can basically produce more from here on out to hit some of the lofty milestones at the top of the all time list, compared to what he's done. It's a tall order for anyone, including the best scorer in the league.