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Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

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WalterLundy said:
To answer he was definitely healthy in 1989. Back issues came in 89-90. 1993 we know what happened but honestly 1989 was the best version of Mario. I know what I saw and considering his supporting cast it elevates it over 1993 for me. Visually in 1989 he was clearly superior to any of his other versions. The win streak and return from treatment like bobholly said isn’t what a normal healthy 1993 would have looked like.

1989 Lemieux had 169 points in 62 games (when his ppg peaked after 70% of season games played). 218 point and 80 goal pace at that time but he picked the goal pace up as point pace fell. He scored 20 goals in his last 14 to do it. This is higher than the 1993 first 40 game pace of 78 G and 208 in 80 games and it’s also higher than his actual pace from the full 60 game sample. Both records (as they are and were) were a possibility for him to break but it is hard to bet that he would have like others have said. He would have had a 40-50% chance in my mind.

Remember also that Gretzky in 1984 would have had the record that would have been out of reach for anyone in an 80 game season. Through 57 games he had 3 ppg (73 G, 98 A, 171 P). 80 game paces of 102 goals and 240 points. I think it’s safe to say that is out of reach. No pace of that large of a sample size comes within 20 pts of it.
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Scoring was 3.94 in 83-84 and 3.63 in 92-93. That is not a small difference. Also goaltending had already took huge leaps and started to evolve and padding on tenders was noticably bigger. That needs to be taken into consideration.
 
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LEAFANFORLIFE23 said:
But he's a goal scorer, you will never see him with more assists than goals that's not his role that's not whypeople watch him.

Much like you will never see Mitch Marner have more goals than assists that's not his role
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It’s also interesting that his 5v5 primary assists aren’t bad. He’s ahead of guys like Panarin and Rantanen, so he’s still making plays and I think he’s a better passer than he’s given credit for. But he’s not a guy who holds onto the puck or carries it a lot which tends to lead to secondary assists and he’s the shooting option on the PP which also limits assists.
 
WalterLundy said:
I laughed because of the word obliterated not that Lemieux couldn’t have the record. If Gretzky gets a normal 92-99 with natural gradual decline without goal scoring completely vanishing he is over 1000. Could healthy Lemieux have the goals record with a perfectly healthy Gretzky? Sure I think there is a decent shot. I just laughed at obliterated because that’s just not realistic unless Mario gets full health and Gretzky’s doesn’t get altered at all.
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I understand if others maybe don’t feel as strongly as I do, but I fully stand by my choice of obliterated. Maybe what I should have said is if Mario had been similarly healthy to Gretzky.

A nearly 600 game differential is pretty huge with a lot of that being in Mario’s prime.
 
Mirka the Turka said:
After the news of Arizonas departure, will Matthews have it in him to score another goal?


Honestly the way Matthews plays tells me he could keep this up like Ovechkin. Ovechkin had to change his game up to become the GOAT goal scorer, but Matthews has never relied on speed at all.

The only thing stopping Matthews would be an injury or the Arizona relocation news
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Again, I don't want to take anything from Matthews, but this is pretty out there to say. OV is really the only player in history who has been a lock for 40+ goals for 20 years. I'm not saying it's impossible that Matthews does it, but it's highly, highly, highly, highly unlikely, which was the point of my OP.
 
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Nathaniel Skywalker said:
Scoring was 3.94 in 83-84 and 3.63 in 92-93. That is not a small difference. Also goaltending had already took huge leaps and started to evolve and padding on tenders was noticably bigger. That needs to be taken into consideration.
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Even strength scoring was lower in 1993 than in 1984 but power play and shorthanded was elevated. Also the top scorers in the league were scoring at unparalleled rates in 1993 as it had the most 100 point and point per game guys in a single season in league history. Scoring distribution is one of the many reasons adjusting by league goals per game isn’t a perfect science.

With that said if we use it and still translate Lemieux’s first 40 games of 1993 into 1984 levels (EV, PP, SH) we are at 41 goals, 68 assists and 109 points (2.73). For the full 60 games he is at 75 goals, 96 assists and 171 points (2.85). 80 game goal paces of 82 and 100 for the respective sample sizes. 218 and 228 for 80 game point paces in 1984 levels.

These still trail the Gretzky ‘84 102 goal and 240 point paces but it’s not even about that. Lemieux was capable of giving the goal and point records a run as they are but I was just adding that Gretzky’s actual premiere season was derailed and it should be considered here as it would be a record that would have been out of reach. Not that the actual records were. That’s not a knock but shows Lemieux’s greatness. Nobody else with pace could potentially challenge those two records.
 
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WalterLundy said:
Even strength scoring was lower in 1993 than in 1984 but power play and shorthanded was elevated. Also the top scorers in the league were scoring at unparalleled rates in 1993 as it had the most 100 point and point per game guys in a single season in league history. Scoring distribution is one of the many reasons adjusting by league goals per game isn’t a perfect science.

With that said if we use it and still translate Lemieux’s first 40 games of 1993 into 1984 levels (EV, PP, SH) we are at 41 goals, 68 assists and 109 points (2.73). For the full 60 games he is at 75 goals, 96 assists and 171 points (2.85). 80 game goal paces of 82 and 100 for the respective sample sizes. 218 and 228 for 80 game point paces in 1984 levels.

These still trail the Gretzky ‘84 102 goal and 240 point paces but it’s not even about that. Lemieux was capable of giving the goal and point records a run as they are but I was just adding that Gretzky’s actual premiere season was derailed and it should be considered here as it would be a record that would have been out of reach. Not that the actual records were. That’s not a knock but shows Lemieux’s greatness. Nobody else with pace could potentially challenge those two records.
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The early 90s saw a great influx for european talent something the 80s had nothing off. 92-93 and 95-96 were full of all time greats canadian, european, american all peak prime healthy n flourishing. That is why there were more 100 point scorers. In contrast to today when you have a player like hyman who has 53 goals. At the end of the day were talking a 228 player vs 240 with your methods. Talk about a wash
 
Nathaniel Skywalker said:
The early 90s saw a great influx for european talent something the 80s had nothing off. 92-93 and 95-96 were full of all time greats canadian, european, american all peak prime healthy n flourishing. That is why there were more 100 point scorers. In contrast to today when you have a player like hyman who has 53 goals. At the end of the day were talking a 228 player vs 240 with your methods. Talk about a wash
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My methods aren’t mine. They are literally just goals per game. Another poster used them for last year’s McDavid compared to all of the other great seasons in NHL history. He adjusted every season to 2023 NHL goals per game doing so by even strength, power play and shorthanded levels. I’m doing a league goals per game adjustment. Scoring distribution change for 1993 still matters compared to 1984.

1992-93: EVG: 2.44, PPG: 1.03, SHG: 0.15
1983-84: EVG: 2.88, PPG: 0.92, SHG: 0.14

You can pull these up on sites like statmuse to verify and they obviously add up to the total goals per game sum for each year. And yes we are talking a difference of a couple goals on pace and 12 points. I’ve been pretty vocal about Gretzky having the best peak but understanding why the Orr and Lemieux champions push their case. Peak is the area where it is at least close.

Not sure when you started watching and how much of Gretzky or Mario you got to see but even with these numbers for 93 being the closest to peak Wayne I think 89 was the best version. How much did you get to see?
 
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WalterLundy said:
My methods aren’t mine. They are literally just goals per game. Another poster used them for last year’s McDavid compared to all of the other great seasons in NHL history. He adjusted every season to 2023 NHL goals per game doing so by even strength, power play and shorthanded levels. I’m doing a league goals per game adjustment. Scoring distribution change for 1993 still matters compared to 1984.

1992-93: EVG: 2.44, PPG: 1.03, SHG: 0.15
1983-84: EVG: 2.88, PPG: 0.92, SHG: 0.14

You can pull these up on sites like statmuse to verify and they obviously add up to the total goals per game sum for each year. And yes we are talking a difference of a couple goals on pace and 12 points. I’ve been pretty vocal about Gretzky having the best peak but understanding why the Orr and Lemieux champions push their case. Peak is the area where it is at least close.

Not sure when you started watching and how much of Gretzky or Mario you got to see but even with these numbers for 93 being the closest to peak Wayne I think 89 was the best version. How much did you get to see?
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I am 30. So only got to really see Marios 2001 comeback. To fully understand. But have researched tons. Watched tons etc. The most I can do.
 
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Nathaniel Skywalker said:
89 he was fully healthy? Wasent that before his back troubles had begun?
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His back problems started flaring up just over halfway through that season. He had 41 points in his first 12 games, 104 in his first 36, 137 in his first 47 (pace of 233 points in 80 games), then 62 points in his last 29 games. A healthy Lemieux was the best player that ever lived.
 
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He’s definitely getting another one tonight. He’s buzzing and they are looking for him. Will be a great moment.
 
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