Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

MacMacandBarbie

Registered User
Dec 9, 2019
2,925
1,931
Matthews has 10 goals in his last 10 games playing with Bertuzzi and Domi. I really do not understand this need to tear one player down to prop up another. You are allowed to appreciate what Matthews is doing without it somehow being disrespectful to Ovi lol
Domi is an established NHL center with has averaged close to a PPG when healthy. I think this proves my point, as he is miles ahead of what a rookie backstrom was when he was thrown into the lineup.
 

MacMacandBarbie

Registered User
Dec 9, 2019
2,925
1,931
But you can take goals away from Matthew’s or literally anyone outside of Ovechkin’s era?

You don’t see how that’s flawed?

Or excuse me, give other players a fraction of a goal per each of Ovechkin’s goals. So Ovechkin’s goals are worth 1.0, but everyone else’s is worth < 1.0

Makes total sense
That’s not how adjusted stats work. I didn’t even say it was a great metric. But eras with lower scoring had slightly different rules that led to the same players scoring more when the scoring opened up, so it’s an undeniable factor that has to be discussed, versus taking away PP time to help account for the fact that OV drew more penalties in his prime than Matthews because he was harder to contain with the puck.

Now is not the time. In 15 years when they are both out of the league we can have these barstool debates. Tonight, let Matthews' accomplishment shine without immediately trying to diminish it or compare it to another season.

As another poster said, what Matthews is doing now doesn't change what Ovechkin did and continues to do. And in 15 years if another player is out here scoring 80 it won't change what Matthews is doing now.
Sure, I was just pointing out flawed stats, not really even debating who is better.

Matthews actually is more effective. The point is brought up because of the huge discrepancy in powerplay time between the seasons being compared.

Ovie 07/08: 2.78PPG/60, 4.82PPP/60
Matthews 23/24: 3.96PPG/60, 6.52PPP/60

Ovie 07/08: 460:25 PPTOI
Matthews 23/24: 257:44 PPTOI

To further contextualize this, Matthews has 17 powerplay goals this season, 5 behind Ovie’s 07/08 season, in only 56% of the powerplay time Ovie had.

By the numbers it seems pretty clear cut honestly that this is a bigger factor in their totals than any era adjustment for league scoring level would be.
You have to account for the fact that OV draws more penalties. 1.8 per 60 mins. OV was harder to contain in 08’ then Matthews, and he was awarded more penalties because of that. Some of those blatant penalties he drew would have been goals otherwise. You can’t just discount the fact that OV got more power play time without factoring into the reasons why. That is the issue.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HolyHagelin

Spirits

Avalanche and Vikings
Jul 12, 2014
2,987
2,809
Matthews close to the Hart conversation. He has to be 3rd behind MacKinnon and Kucherov.
 

oooooooooohCanada

Registered User
Jan 14, 2017
2,134
1,622
You have to account for the fact that OV draws more penalties. 1.8 per 60 mins. OV was harder to contain in 08’ then Matthews, and he was awarded more penalties because of that. Some of those blatant penalties he drew would have been goals otherwise.

Matthews doesn't draw many penalties because the Leafs don't take penalties. This is a known thing. The more penalties your team takes, the more penalties are called for you. This is why the Leafs are consistently in the bottom 5 of penalties drawn the past 5 years. Has nothing to do with Matthews not being able to draw penalties.
 

holy

Demigod
May 22, 2017
7,160
11,127
I hope he hits 70. I hate him but I got a lot of Leafs fans around and I'd like to see them happy before the inevitable happens.
 

Iwishihadaspacebar

Registered User
Apr 27, 2021
1,352
1,559
He is an unbelievable scorer. It does highlight that they do not need several $10m+ players alongside him though. He'd score 50+ with just average NHL wingers.
 

Squiffy

Victims, rn't we all
Oct 21, 2006
14,013
3,862
Toronto
Cole Harbour is beautiful, had the chance to visit on an east coast road trip. Arizona is on the hit list, would love to travel through it.

It’s an all time goal scoring season if AM doesn’t score another one, and no, it’s probably not a Hart season given what some others are up too.

But holy crap.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheStatican

TheStatican

Registered User
Mar 14, 2012
1,731
1,512
Obviously 93 and 89 clear 23 McDavid (and I’d bet they would if you had ice time data to use as well) but I just thought it was interesting because 23 McDavid and 96 Lemieux reminded me of each other so much. Matching a season of that caliber is a remarkable achievement even if the top two by Lemieux are out of reach.
It's something to consider, even before making adjustments it was evident that those two seasons where quite similar due to their dominate special team production.

I have to acknowledging something though, I made a little bit of a mistake.
As we know, ice time for star players has decreased over the years though it has seemingly flat-lined for the most part recently. I remembered coming across several articles discussing the matter a few years back but I couldn't remember the exact particulars. Well after some searching I've found those articles:
Hockey Shift Length: The Art of the Undercut

It's clear that what's driven the decrease in total ice time is a decrease in shift length for star players and the ultimate reason for that is because analytics have proven that there is an optimal shift length which is notably shorter than previous lengths afforded to the top players. Which makes sense, even though their skill set is higher they would still fatigue and see a degradation of their skills relative to their own peak performance when not fatigued. This is relevant to the discussion because what this means is that ice time adjustments almost certainly don't scaled linearly. I certainly don't think there's any negative correlation between the two, it still goes without saying that more ice time would ultimately result in more production. It's just that I shouldn't have stated for a fact that a 10% increase in ice time automatically results in a 10%(on average) increase in production. How much it scale I do not know, it's not something I've done research on, it could be that +10% ice time = +9% production or perhaps it's as low as +5% production. It's likely something that would be very difficult to substantiate with any certainty. Still, Matthews per game scoring rates are far enough ahead of Ovi's that even if increased ice time only scaled at 50% he would still adjust higher once he reaches 68 goals. i.e. Matthews has 17 pp goals, linearly that scales to a little over 28 pp goals at Ovi's PP TOI, if it scaled at only a 50% rate, which I think is on the low end, he would now only gain about 5 extra PP goals but that would still place his adjusted for scoring levels totals higher than Ovi's if he reaches 68(Ovi's adjust total being 72.8) And that's without considering a slight boost that he would get from not having to play an extra 0:35 in SH time. I'm not going make guesstimates as to how that would effect adjustments between McDavid '23 and Lemieux '96, I'm sure they would still be closely comparable as well.
 
Last edited:

Arthur Morgan

Registered User
Jul 6, 2016
8,994
6,293
Toronto
www.youtube.com
Matthews actually is more effective. The point is brought up because of the huge discrepancy in powerplay time between the seasons being compared.

Ovie 07/08: 2.78PPG/60, 4.82PPP/60
Matthews 23/24: 3.96PPG/60, 6.52PPP/60

Ovie 07/08: 460:25 PPTOI
Matthews 23/24: 257:44 PPTOI


To further contextualize this, Matthews has 17 powerplay goals this season, 5 behind Ovie’s 07/08 season, in only 56% of the powerplay time Ovie had.

By the numbers it seems pretty clear cut honestly that this is a bigger factor in their totals than any era adjustment for league scoring level would be.
holy shit, I knew he got more PP time than Matthews but I didnt think it was over 200 more mins

Think it’s pretty clear at this point that he’s a better goal scorer at his peak than Ovi ever was.

Still seems unlikely he’ll pass Ovi as a career goalscorer, but at the same time who would have thought he’d even be better at this point in their careers either?
its still possible. depending how Matthews does over the next few years. if he has a couple more 60+ seasons he likely wont need so many 50s later in his career. we are entering when Ovechkin started to look human out there and scored 30+ goals for 3 years
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
26,425
11,414
That’s not how adjusted stats work. I didn’t even say it was a great metric. But eras with lower scoring had slightly different rules that led to the same players scoring more when the scoring opened up, so it’s an undeniable factor that has to be discussed, versus taking away PP time to help account for the fact that OV drew more penalties in his prime than Matthews because he was harder to contain with the puck.


Sure, I was just pointing out flawed stats, not really even debating who is better.


You have to account for the fact that OV draws more penalties. 1.8 per 60 mins. OV was harder to contain in 08’ then Matthews, and he was awarded more penalties because of that. Some of those blatant penalties he drew would have been goals otherwise. You can’t just discount the fact that OV got more power play time without factoring into the reasons why. That is the issue.

Ovechkin must still draw more penalties than anyone in the league because he still sits at the top in powerplay time.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad