Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[KevinRedkey]

Thanks for the novella. A very very long excuse for a very very weak argument.

The argument I made is the Habs won't score a lot of goals this year, which was a direct reply to someone who said they would. If you think that's a weak argument, then you're in the fringe minority. You'll continue thinking you're correct until the standings eventually prove you wrong - at which point you'll make excuses. It's typical homer behaviour.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

The argument I made is the Habs won't score a lot of goals this year, which was a direct reply to someone who said they would. If you think that's a weak argument, then you're in the fringe minority. You'll continue thinking you're correct until the standings eventually prove you wrong - at which point you'll make excuses. It's typical homer behaviour.

Who cares about where the minority lies on a sports message board where the majority are entirely clueless.

Montreal just added almost an entire 2nd line to compliment their first line which I believe was 5th or 6th in the league in scoring over the final 40 games. Slafkovsky is on a ridiculous development curve that had him just under a ppg over the final 40 and could very well break out big time. Armia was a beast after getting psychological help and he will likely be with Dvorak and Roy on the third line which should be an above average 3rd line in terms of production. Josh Anderson and Gallagher on the 4th line will easily make up one of the best 4th lines in hockey.

Then consider the extra year of experience for Guhle, Xhekaj and Barron as well as the addition of Hutson and possibly Reinbacher and Mailloux at some point.

There are a plethora of reasons to provide optimism for a major transformation but you just stick to the Don Cherry level of traditional media prognostication.....because that has always worked so well lol.

 

[HabsAddict]

Sadly, the Habs are going to finish in single digits despite adding Dach and Laine with a potential of 80 goal 2nd line.

I need to ask the HF experts....is it possible to finish with a minus amount of points?

 

[HabsAddict]

People are sleeping on the Habs. The additions of Laine, Hutson and a healthy Dach might take them to the playoffs. They've had a steady progression, getting more points every season from 55 to 68, to 76 and did this despite a boatload of injuries. The additions will help mitigate injuries and bolster the lineup, including more young players getting closer to be ready for the NHL, like Mailloux, Reinbacher and Beck, to help mitigate injuries further. They could potentially end-up with around 85 to 90 points, bringing them closer to the playoffs.

Unless there is a major injury to a top 6, if they don't move into mediocre 90 point territory with their existing lineup then there are serious problems.

After that the major improvements to get into contention is Demidov, defenseman maturing and defensive system. That adds the 15-20 point into contender territory. That should be about 3 years away at most.

 

[Lshap]

The argument I made is the Habs won't score a lot of goals this year, which was a direct reply to someone who said they would. If you think that's a weak argument, then you're in the fringe minority. You'll continue thinking you're correct until the standings eventually prove you wrong - at which point you'll make excuses. It's typical homer behaviour.

I responded to a specific point you got wrong:

It's unusual for a team to rise by that much in a single year (history!), and no one in their right mind thinks the Habs have made the moves required to do so. Using a massive sample size (27yrs) was to show how it's a bad predicition overall, and not to say it's relevant to next season (that's called context, which you seem to struggle with).

As I showed, teams have significant jumps in goals every year. So, no, it's NOT unusual.

From the previous season to last season, Detroit was +38 in goals, Nashville was +43, Colorado +28, Arizona +31. Scoring changes substantially for some teams every year – there's your historic context. Montreal's roster is very young and improving each season. They're as likely to take the next step as any upward-trending team.

Nobody claimed Montreal would be "Top 5" in goals. That was an argument you created in your own head. I claimed Montreal would "Take the next step", which they likely will.

Again: respond to what was said or don't respond at all.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

hey good timing this was posted 10 mins ago

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

i'll copy his homework

Jfresh nailed most of it for me as well, as a Pens fan (of which he is as well) at least that's realistic for the Pens. Especially if Sullivan isn't getting canned.

 

[HockeyVirus]

If you think you are going to find a better center than what John Tavares has been for cheap you will be sorely mistaken.

Tavares isn't retiring. There is a good chance he re-signs for under 5M aav and is able to still be our #2 C for a year or two

Sadly, the Habs are going to finish in single digits despite adding Dach and Laine with a potential of 80 goal 2nd line.

I need to ask the HF experts....is it possible to finish with a minus amount of points?

I'm certainly hopeful the Habs will try

 

[Sting]

Sadly, the Habs are going to finish in single digits despite adding Dach and Laine with a potential of 80 goal 2nd line.

I need to ask the HF experts....is it possible to finish with a minus amount of points?

Consider that Laine last scored 40 in 2017-2018. He's going to a team where he won't be the guy and he'll be looking to shake off some baggage. I think a 20 goal season would be a success.

Kirby Dach doesn't have a full season under his belt and hasn't scored more than 38 points. He's scored a maximum of 14 goals in a season.

It's great to point out potential but I think it's good to be realistic too. Look at the competition in the division. If the Habs finish above last place in the division that's probably a win.

 

[Blowfish]

These aren't my predictions, but they kinda sum up what I hear and see:

1. Yeah, Florida got worse, but they are the Stanley Cup champions.
2. Everybody's counted Boston out before and it never happens. It won't this year either
3. Toronto will do what Toronto always does: score goals, make the playoffs easily and get knocked out
4. Everybody's counted Tampa out before and it never happens. It won't this year either
5. Detroit's OK, but they just ain't got the horses
6. Everybody's predicted Buffalo in before and it never happens. It won't this year either
7. Ottawa added Ullmark, I'm not saying they will, but this could be the year they finally put it all together and make a move
8. Montreal is headed in the right direction, but it's not their time yet.

So basically, your consensus is "more of the same."
Boring bunch, ain't ya?

Not a bad a list ... switch Buffalo and Toronto and it's perfect.

 

[bert]

Nobody seriously uses Vegas odds. It's a poor way to evaluate team strength. And this thing about Montreal's great goaltending is the icing on the cake.

Like I said, make any ridiculous prediction you want.... it has no effect on reality.

So you think your biased opinion of your favorite team is a better evaluation than the gambling authority of the entire world which billions of dollars are gambled on.

Yes they had great goaltending there's a little chart in this thread showing it.

The only reality we have is you're completely checked out.

 

[Lshap]

So you think your biased opinion of your favorite team is a better evaluation than the gambling authority of the entire world which billions of dollars are gambled on.

Yes they had great goaltending there's a little chart in this thread showing it.

The only reality we have is you're completely checked out.

Betting lines are a response to fan size and fan opinions more than the quality of the teams themselves. If you want more info, look it up.

Using Vegas to make a serious hockey argument is like using McDonalds commercials to determine the best players. "You think your biased opinion of your favorite team is a better evaluation than the biggest fast food chain of the entire world which billions of dollars of ads are spent?" < this is what you're essentially saying.

I'm not spending more time explaining to you the difference between marketing and actual evaluation, and I don't feel like indulging this compulsive twitch you have about Montreal. Take your campaign elsewhere and good luck.

 

[Mattilaus]

Who cares about where the minority lies on a sports message board where the majority are entirely clueless.

Must be nice to be so much smarter than all us saps who are clueless about hockey. I don't know how you even spend time on these boards. Must be really boring having deal with all of us inferior plebs.

 

[NikolaTesla]

So you think your biased opinion of your favorite team is a better evaluation than the gambling authority of the entire world which billions of dollars are gambled on.

Yes they had great goaltending there's a little chart in this thread showing it.

The only reality we have is you're completely checked out.

Vegas odds aren't for the odds that an event to happen, its the odds that will make them the most money. They are heavily influenced by the popularity of the 2 competitors. A good example is Conor McGregor odds (when he fights). He has a massive amount of casual mma fans who will bet on him almost no matter the odds, so they factor it in their betting odds to generate the most profit.

 

[Ratsreign]

The initial betting line would be set using the House’s knowledge and experience at handicapping games. Changes from that initial spread are driven by the bets being made, as they want (as much as possible) equal money being put down on both teams.
Their main goal is that the House never loses

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Must be nice to be so much smarter than all us saps who are clueless about hockey. I don't know how you even spend time on these boards. Must be really boring having deal with all of us inferior plebs.

There are plenty of smart posters but much like any message board it is dominated by the uninformed.

 

[dgibb10]

Who cares about where the minority lies on a sports message board where the majority are entirely clueless.

Montreal just added almost an entire 2nd line to compliment their first line which I believe was 5th or 6th in the league in scoring over the final 40 games. Slafkovsky is on a ridiculous development curve that had him just under a ppg over the final 40 and could very well break out big time. Armia was a beast after getting psychological help and he will likely be with Dvorak and Roy on the third line which should be an above average 3rd line in terms of production. Josh Anderson and Gallagher on the 4th line will easily make up one of the best 4th lines in hockey.

Then consider the extra year of experience for Guhle, Xhekaj and Barron as well as the addition of Hutson and possibly Reinbacher and Mailloux at some point.

There are a plethora of reasons to provide optimism for a major transformation but you just stick to the Don Cherry level of traditional media prognostication.....because that has always worked so well lol.

You should go place lots and lots of money on the habs to make the playoffs

 

[Mattilaus]

There are plenty of smart posters but much like any message board it is dominated by the uninformed.

Must make life easy to assume almost everyone you converse with is dumber than you.

 

[dgibb10]

Vegas odds aren't for the odds that an event to happen, its the odds that will make them the most money. They are heavily influenced by the popularity of the 2 competitors. A good example is Conor McGregor odds (when he fights). He has a massive amount of casual mma fans who will bet on him almost no matter the odds, so they factor it in their betting odds to generate the most profit.

And what would the reasoning for vegas artificially keeping MTLs odds down?

If anything, MTLs large fanbase would make their point total INFLATED.

 

[NikolaTesla]

And what would the reasoning for vegas artificially keeping MTLs odds down?

If anything, MTLs large fanbase would make their point total INFLATED.

I know that. I was just correcting someone who thought Vegas odds always reflects the actual odds. I am well informed that Vegas, in this case, would inflate the odds of mtl since they have a huge following. I don't thing that Quebec is a big gambling nation though.

 

[viceroy]

Their main goal is that the House never loses

I was trying to avoid this point but here goes. What you just posted is a mark's perspective. You think in a straight line, you think the oddsmakers can only make bank by posting legit numbers. Always remember, don't trust the House or its possible agents. Fr'instance why did Vegas make TML a fave for the Cup for many years? To draw in Toronto's large doggedly loyal fans in. They make the most money not by the fairness of the odds but the amount of money in the pool. Make the rubes feel confident in their team's chances.

p.s. Never bet on your home team.

 

[Silky Johnson]

Some people will look like Fools when it's all said and done, but mainly dgibb10

Ottawa ain't going nowhere, Montréal finish last again this year but it's the last year we finish behind the Sens for the next decade at the very least

I'll take that bet.

Let's say team winner gets to choose the others User name for a season?

Doesn't need to be a decade either. Just next season.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Both games won

Yeah

dEFeNsiVE PoWErhOuSe

Me: "Montreal's defense is questionable"
You: "WHY ARE YOU SAYING DETROIT IS A DEFENSIVE POWERHOUSE!"

 

[Mattilaus]

p.s. Never bet on your home team.

Nonsense, I bet on my team to lose all the time!

 

[Wayfarer13]

The argument I made is the Habs won't score a lot of goals this year, which was a direct reply to someone who said they would. If you think that's a weak argument, then you're in the fringe minority. You'll continue thinking you're correct until the standings eventually prove you wrong - at which point you'll make excuses. It's typical homer behaviour.

What I think you did was to look at the results and assume a rinse and repeat prognosis without taking into consideration of context nuance or development curve.Better go with a prediction centered a spectrum of results. If your position is that they will be at the bottom of said spectrum then state that.

 

[DapperCam]

Nobody knows how the Sabres will perform. They were a top scoring team 2 seasons ago with mostly the same players but had terrible goaltending. This past year their scoring dipped, but UPL was a top-5 goalie for 2 months (earned himself a nice contract). They are the youngest roster in the NHL once again. Terrible special teams last year for no good reason (they have the personnel to have an elite PP).

New coach, rebuilt bottom 6. Sabres could win the division, or finish bottom 5 in the league. Who even knows?

Things I’m confident will happen.
- Dahlin will continue to be incredible.
- Benson will continue to be tenacious.
- Quinn will go P/GP if he can actually stay healthy.

Besides that I have no clue.