Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[Lshap]

MTL was a bottom 5 team last year despite getting absolutely incredible goaltending results.

This is one of the most ridiculous opinions I've heard.

You don't understand statistics all that well do you?

MTL won a pretty high number of 1 goal games
they lost a pretty high number of 1 goal games
They lost a TON of blowouts
They rarely blew out their opponents.

Those 1 goal losses are just as likely to to turn into 2 goal losses, those 1 goal wins are just as likely to turn into losses.

MTL is unlikely to go to 26 OT games next year. They will likely go to less, and so have less extra points available.

This is some serious wishful thinking dressed up as very bad analysis.

 

[dgibb10]

This is one of the most ridiculous opinions I've heard.


This is some serious wishful thinking dressed up as very bad analysis.

MTL was objectively a bottom 5 team last year in results. Hence why they got the 5th overall pick.

MTL did get excellent goaltending. Very high finishes in GSAx across the board.

Now, the GAA and SV% weren't quite indicative of that, given just how atrocious MTL was defensively.



No, the wishful thinking is assuming that basic concepts of probablitity and variance don't apply to your favourite team.

Goal differential and record are HEAVILY correlated. Sometimes you can get lucky and get better results than your goal differential suggests, sometimes you can be worse. MTL is just as likely to underperform their goal differential as they are to overperform it.

And again if NHL didn't have overtime and Empty net situations, the 1 goal game point would be much more valid.

But since empty net situations are there to throw off the numbers
and since the NHL awards loser points meaning teams who for example go to 26 overtime games (the league average is 14) will in fact have their point totals somewhat inflated (since OT games are not very consistent year to year).

But let's go into it anyway

MTL went 10-16 in OT games

and 7-11 in non OT games decided by 1 score. (this isn't even a particularly unlucky record lmao)

Let's bring that to 9-9 and 13-13. It would give them 7 extra points.

And now, we bring that down to the league average of 14 overtime games, for totals 15-15 in non OT games and 7-7 in OT games, and we lose 6 points.

MTL's problem wasn't 1 score games.

It was the fact they went 13-25 in the games not decided by 1 score

 

[Lshap]

MTL was objectively a bottom 5 team last year in results. Hence why they got the 5th overall pick.

MTL did get excellent goaltending. Very high finishes in GSAx across the board.

Now, the GAA and SV% weren't quite indicative of that, given just how atrocious MTL was defensively.



No, the wishful thinking is assuming that basic concepts of probablitity and variance don't apply to your favourite team.

Goal differential and record are HEAVILY correlated. Sometimes you can get lucky and get better results than your goal differential suggests, sometimes you can be worse. MTL is just as likely to underperform their goal differential as they are to overperform it.

And again if NHL didn't have overtime and Empty net situations, the 1 goal game point would be much more valid.

But since empty net situations are there to throw off the numbers
and since the NHL awards loser points meaning teams who for example go to 26 overtime games (the league average is 14) will in fact have their point totals somewhat inflated (since OT games are not very consistent year to year).

But let's go into it anyway

MTL went 10-16 in OT games

and 7-11 in non OT games decided by 1 score. (this isn't even a particularly unlucky record lmao)

Let's bring that to 9-9 and 13-13. It would give them 7 extra points.

And now, we bring that down to the league average of 14 overtime games, for totals 15-15 in non OT games and 7-7 in OT games, and we lose 6 points.

MTL's problem wasn't 1 score games.

It was the fact they went 13-25 in the games not decided by 1 score

Since Montreal had "absolutely incredible goaltending results", I assume you consider Montembeault a top-5 goalie. Or is he top-3? Should he have been a Vezina candidate?

Every real indicator shows this young team is improving each season. You've ignored all that and created a fantasy where every close game will somehow become a loss. This is not a legitimate analysis. It's strained wishful thinking.

 

[Frank Drebin]

The idea that MTL is right in the thick with Detroit, Buffalo, and Ottawa in terms of hopes going into next season is kinda crazy.

There's a reason the vegas point lines (looking at FanDuel) for each team are:

88.5 for buffalo
90.5 for Detroit
91.5 for Ottawa


75.5 for Montreal

for some context, MTL's point line is as close to detroits, as detroits is to Edmonton's

Only CBJ (68.5), MTL (75.5), Chicago (74.5), SJS 64.5), Calgary (81.5) and Anaheim (72.5) are below 85 points.

MTL was a bottom 5 team last year despite getting absolutely incredible goaltending results.

They did not add a single UFA.

Lot of expectations on Patrick Laine to stay healthy and do some real heavy lifting.

I could go for another top 5 pick

 

[dgibb10]

Since Montreal had "absolutely incredible goaltending results", I assume you consider Montembeault a top-5 goalie. Or is he top-3? Should he have been a Vezina candidate?

Every real indicator shows this young team is improving each season. You've ignored all that and created a fantasy where every close game will somehow become a loss. This is not a legitimate analysis. It's strained wishful thinking.

Montembault had an excellent year last year. As did Primeau.

Do I project them to be excellent again next year? Probably not.

That is how goalie volatility works. Goalies have great years out of nowhere then fall off the next year.

There are very few goalies in the league that I would predict to be/are consistently excellent. I don't think I'd put Montembault in that class with Shesterkin, Hellebuyuck, Sorokin (and even he had a down year last year), or Swayman.

I think the Montreal canadiens record is likely to reflect their goal differential (bottom 5 last year), and analytical level of play (bottom 5 last year).

I do not think adding Patrick Laine will move the needle in terms of winning play 5v5.

And I do not believe that the bump in PP he will provide will be enough.

There is a reason the vegas line for MTLs points is 75.5.

 

[dgibb10]

I could go for another top 5 pick

I am lower on calgary than most (I think their goaltending is an absolute trainwreck).

I'd say

CBJ
Anaheim
SJS
Calgary

will be top 4 picks.

Chicago and MTL could go either way for the 5th pick.

I think Chicago has the significantly better dcore with Jones, Vlasic, Brodie, Martinez, and Murphy

But the forward group is pretty rough outside of Bedard Bertuzzi and Teuvo

 

[NyQuil]

The goaltending was fine

 

[dgibb10]

Since Montreal had "absolutely incredible goaltending results", I assume you consider Montembeault a top-5 goalie. Or is he top-3? Should he have been a Vezina candidate?

Every real indicator shows this young team is improving each season. You've ignored all that and created a fantasy where every close game will somehow become a loss. This is not a legitimate analysis. It's strained wishful thinking.

If you don't believe in statistics, here's a simple one for you.

Montreal won less games in 23-24 than they did in 22-23

 

[Frank Drebin]

I am lower on calgary than most (I think their goaltending is an absolute trainwreck).

I'd say

CBJ
Anaheim
SJS
Calgary

will be top 4 picks.

Chicago and MTL could go either way for the 5th pick.

I think Chicago has the significantly better dcore with Jones, Vlasic, Brodie, Martinez, and Murphy

But the forward group is pretty rough outside of Bedard Bertuzzi and Teuvo

I honestly see Montreal being stronger than last year
Recovered caufield
Emerging slaf
Addition of dach and laine
But id rather finish with 74 points than 88 so we’ll see

 

[VanIsle]

NHL Division Rankings: Predicting how the Atlantic will shake out

The Atlantic has been represented in the Stanley Cup Final six years running and now there are non-playoff teams in the division ready to make a push. How will the most competitive division in the NHL play out in 2024-25? Emily Sadler takes a look.

www.sportsnet.ca

Here is Sportsnet's Atlantic division rankings. . . .

 

[Captain Mountain]

If you don't believe in statistics, here's a simple one for you.

Montreal won less games in 23-24 than they did in 22-23

I don't really care about the fact that you're opinions are more weighted on prior stats than is generally advisable and I expect Montreal to be the worst team in the division.

But this at best muddles your arguments and generally contradicts them.

 

[thebestnic]

We're like 15 years into the analytics era and people still delude themselves into thinking their 45% Corsi team has somehow figured it out. I guess people just never learn.

We're like 15 years into the analytics era and people think they can predict the future using Corsi without context

 

[Wayfarer13]

You don't understand statistics all that well do you?

MTL won a pretty high number of 1 goal games
they lost a pretty high number of 1 goal games
They lost a TON of blowouts
They rarely blew out their opponents.

Those 1 goal losses are just as likely to to turn into 2 goal losses, those 1 goal wins are just as likely to turn into losses.

MTL is unlikely to go to 26 OT games next year. They will likely go to less, and so have less extra points available.

What they are likely to do is to win more games as they gain more experience. They have shown heart.

 

[Wayfarer13]

If you don't believe in statistics, here's a simple one for you.

Montreal won less games in 23-24 than they did in 22-23

Been saying allsSummer that I will be reading on how the Habs are over rated this year.

 

[Sypher04]

With the worst goaltending in the league.

What does that say about the Habs?

Nothing really. Every team at the bottom of the league is down there for some reason or another that they need to improve. Ottawa’s was goaltending.

The Habs were pretty well exactly where they were expected to be while the Sens finished well below expectations. That’s honestly much more telling of the Sens.

One team was trying to win and failed while the other wasn’t really trying.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Been saying allsSummer that I will be reading on how the Habs are over rated this year.

They’re not over-rated, habs will likely get a top 10 pick.

 

[NikolaTesla]

MTL was objectively a bottom 5 team last year in results. Hence why they got the 5th overall pick.

MTL did get excellent goaltending. Very high finishes in GSAx across the board.

Now, the GAA and SV% weren't quite indicative of that, given just how atrocious MTL was defensively.



No, the wishful thinking is assuming that basic concepts of probablitity and variance don't apply to your favourite team.

Goal differential and record are HEAVILY correlated. Sometimes you can get lucky and get better results than your goal differential suggests, sometimes you can be worse. MTL is just as likely to underperform their goal differential as they are to overperform it.

And again if NHL didn't have overtime and Empty net situations, the 1 goal game point would be much more valid.

But since empty net situations are there to throw off the numbers
and since the NHL awards loser points meaning teams who for example go to 26 overtime games (the league average is 14) will in fact have their point totals somewhat inflated (since OT games are not very consistent year to year).

But let's go into it anyway

MTL went 10-16 in OT games

and 7-11 in non OT games decided by 1 score. (this isn't even a particularly unlucky record lmao)

Let's bring that to 9-9 and 13-13. It would give them 7 extra points.

And now, we bring that down to the league average of 14 overtime games, for totals 15-15 in non OT games and 7-7 in OT games, and we lose 6 points.

MTL's problem wasn't 1 score games.

It was the fact they went 13-25 in the games not decided by 1 score

You hate montreal a lot, we get it.

Fact is mtl performed slightly above expectation last year. The devils on the other hand......

 

[NikolaTesla]

If you don't believe in statistics, here's a simple one for you.

Montreal won less games in 23-24 than they did in 22-23

They were sellers at the TDL in 22-23, they were also sellers in 23-24. So your point is? If you watched them play (im sure you did right? wink wink), you'd notice the obvious progression of individuals. Now, finally having what will probably be a good 2nd line will change a lot of things. No more best pair being so easily matched against their first line every damn shifts.

 

[Panthaz89]

The Habs were in 41 1 goal games 14-27 and another 15 2 goal games .They were in 2/3 of the games they played.Would not take a lot to turn losses into wins.The first line scored 53 goals in the second half which would have put them top 6 and that having no second line. They have one this year.Hopefully MSL starts teaching defensive systems this year which will improve the goals against. Hutson is the wild card this year and we will see on him.


They were not as far along the rebuild curve?The goaltending was fine

This is ridiculous reasoning....you think NHL teams are constantly getting blown out? The only teams this doesn't apply to are teams like the Blackhawks and San Jose.

 

[Wayfarer13]

This is one of the most ridiculous opinions I've heard.


This is some serious wishful thinking dressed up as very bad analysi

MTL was objectively a bottom 5 team last year in results. Hence why they got the 5th overall pick.

MTL did get excellent goaltending. Very high finishes in GSAx across the board.

Now, the GAA and SV% weren't quite indicative of that, given just how atrocious MTL was defensively.



No, the wishful thinking is assuming that basic concepts of probablitity and variance don't apply to your favourite team.

Goal differential and record are HEAVILY correlated. Sometimes you can get lucky and get better results than your goal differential suggests, sometimes you can be worse. MTL is just as likely to underperform their goal differential as they are to overperform it.

And again if NHL didn't have overtime and Empty net situations, the 1 goal game point would be much more valid.

But since empty net situations are there to throw off the numbers
and since the NHL awards loser points meaning teams who for example go to 26 overtime games (the league average is 14) will in fact have their point totals somewhat inflated (since OT games are not very consistent year to year).

But let's go into it anyway

MTL went 10-16 in OT games

and 7-11 in non OT games decided by 1 score. (this isn't even a particularly unlucky record lmao)

Let's bring that to 9-9 and 13-13. It would give them 7 extra points.

And now, we bring that down to the league average of 14 overtime games, for totals 15-15 in non OT games and 7-7 in OT games, and we lose 6 points.

MTL's problem wasn't 1 score games.

It was the fact they went 13-25 in the games not decided by 1 score

Their first line scored 53 goals in their last 41 games pro rated would be 106 which would have placed them in what? the top half dozen lines in the league? So they go from from what they did which was 81 goals to 106 and with their natural development perhaps more. Gosh buddy Caufeild coming off that shoulder injury scored 8 goals with a shooting percentage of 19.4%. I suspect the shoulder was feeling a lot better in those 9 games then it did for most of the season. I'm looking for 20 to 40 more goals out that first line this year than last year. Surely that alone is worth 10 to 15 points in the standing. They actually have a second line this year. I expect a bigger improvement out that line this year. I would be quite happy to get 30 goals out of Laine. third and fourth lines should benefit from this. Gallagher was a point a game in his last ten and was actually healthy. Looked like by the end of the year he had figured out what he was needed to do. Now Anderson we are hoping the newly wed has done the self reflection that he needed to do and comes back refreshed.

Yah know a couple years they started a blueline that had 21 games of experience going into the season. Think they added some touches since then. But remember MSL has not gotten into teaching defensive systems yet and that will come.

 

[BostonBob]

But remember MSL has not gotten into teaching defensive systems yet and that will come.

He's been coaching Montreal now for 2.5 seasons - what the hell is he waiting for ????

 

[Wayfarer13]

This is ridiculous reasoning....you think NHL teams are constantly getting blown out? The only teams this doesn't apply to are teams like the Blackhawks and San Jose.

Mind reader? Do you do colours?
Context and is always important
A very young team is in tight in 2 3rds of their games and the other 3rd are blow out games which which they lose most of them.
Okay. Looking ahead what do I see with 1 more year of experience under their belts
Should get 20 to 40 goals more out that first line
They actually have a second line and asking Laine to score 30 is reasonable
Gallagher was healthy and a point a game in his last 10 games
The blueline has another year under its belt
While not guaranteed what does it look like if Hutson hits?

 

[Panthaz89]

Mind reader? Do you do colours?
Context and is always important
A very young team is in tight in 2 3rds of their games and the other 3rd are blow out games which which they lose most of them.
Okay. Looking ahead what do I see with 1 more year of experience under their belts
Should get 20 to 40 goals more out that first line
They actually have a second line and asking Laine to score 30 is reasonable
Gallagher was healthy and a point a game in his last 10 games
The blueline has another year under its belt
While not guaranteed what does it look like if Hutson hits?

Literally all 4 teams in bottom 4 are "young" the Sabres were the youngest on average age in the entire league...nobody cares unless players actually show they can improve.

 

[KevinRedkey]

The habs are going to surprise a lot of people this year. They likely won't be a good defensive team, but they will score a lot of goals.

The average goals-for last year among the 32 teams was 253. The Habs fell 21 goals shy of that last year.

The last time the Habs hit 253+ goals, Chris Chelios (currently age 62) won a Stanley cup, Jay Bouwmeester was #1 in ice-time, and Brad Boyes was a top-5 goal scorer. They've done it one single time in the last 27 seasons. Seriously... and even when they did, they were far from an juggernaut goal scoring team.

The Habs could very well surprise people - but you are in for a big one if you think they are going to be scoring "a lot of goals" this season.

 

[Wayfarer13]

He's been coaching Montreal now for 2.5 seasons - what the hell is he waiting for ????

Team has gone from 55 to 76 points points in that period. They're doing just fine. The nuance of demography and close games is nothing to cry about. They're not making a cup run yet but I can see a playoff spot.