Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[Wayfarer13]

Literally all 4 teams in bottom 4 are "young" the Sabres were the youngest on average age in the entire league...nobody cares unless players actually show they can improve.

Okay. The first line scored 53 of their 81 goals in the second half which pro rated would have put them in the top half dozen lines in the league. Does this rate as improvement? If not not how long at this level (1 year-5years) do they need to produce to be considered to have improved? Is it unreasonable to expect that these three young players can improve on what they accomplished in the half season?

 

[dgibb10]

Their first line scored 53 goals in their last 41 games pro rated would be 106 which would have placed them in what? the top half dozen lines in the league? So they go from from what they did which was 81 goals to 106 and with their natural development perhaps more. Gosh buddy Caufeild coming off that shoulder injury scored 8 goals with a shooting percentage of 19.4%. I suspect the shoulder was feeling a lot better in those 9 games then it did for most of the season. I'm looking for 20 to 40 more goals out that first line this year than last year. Surely that alone is worth 10 to 15 points in the standing. They actually have a second line this year. I expect a bigger improvement out that line this year. I would be quite happy to get 30 goals out of Laine. third and fourth lines should benefit from this. Gallagher was a point a game in his last ten and was actually healthy. Looked like by the end of the year he had figured out what he was needed to do. Now Anderson we are hoping the newly wed has done the self reflection that he needed to do and comes back refreshed.

Yah know a couple years they started a blueline that had 21 games of experience going into the season. Think they added some touches since then. But remember MSL has not gotten into teaching defensive systems yet and that will come.

The last 41 games the Montreal Canadiens were 30th in the league in xGoals share with an atrocious 42% share.

You're welcome to go place bets on them. Vegas has them hitting the exact same point total as last year with a line of 75.5 points.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

The average goals-for last year among the 32 teams was 253. The Habs fell 21 goals shy of that last year.

The last time the Habs hit 253+ goals, Chris Chelios (currently age 62) won a Stanley cup, Jay Bouwmeester was #1 in ice-time, and Brad Boyes was a top-5 goal scorer. they've done it one single time in the last 27 seasons.

The Habs could very well surprise people - but you are in for a big one if you think they are going to be scoring a lot of goals this season.

The amount of goals the habs scored several years ago has no bearing on the amount they will score this season. This is a completely different team, and its the most talented team they've had in an extremely long time.

From last year's team, they will be adding Laine, Dach, and Hutson. Each has the potential to have a big impact offensively.

The young players (Caufield, Slaf, Guhle, Newhook, Roy, etc.) will be more experienced and closer to their prime.

Caufield isn't going to continue shooting at a 8.9% like he did last season.

Slaf had a major progression curve last season. Its very unlikely you see the Slaf from the first half of the season who had 2 g and 8 pts in 31 games.

The Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf were an elite line in the 2nd half of last season, and will now be together for a full season.

The habs essentially didn't have a 2nd line last season, and now they could have a really good one in Laine - Dach - Newhook.

The pp was one of the worst in the nhl last season. With the added weapons, and the previous pp coach being gone, it has the potential to improve by a lot.

Depth players like Dvorak and Anderson had some of the worst seasons in their career. It won't be difficult for them to improve on their numbers.

I don't see any forwards having major regression from what they did last season.

On defense, Matheson could have lower numbers, but that will have a lot to do with him getting less offensive opportunities because of Hutson.

As long as the team stay healthy, the potential for a huge offensive improvement is there.

 

[dgibb10]

I honestly see Montreal being stronger than last year
Recovered caufield
Emerging slaf
Addition of dach and laine
But id rather finish with 74 points than 88 so we’ll see

I think every one of the teams at the bottom (and all teams in general) has young players they're banking on improvement from. MTL is nothing special in that regard. In fact they'll likely be giving a number of minutes to rookies and kids who will likely struggle as they adjust.

In terms of external additions, MTL did not add a single UFA (only calgary and anaheim really fall into this category).

Above them:

Utah added Sergachev and Marino
Ottawa added Ullmark
Seattle added Montour and Stephenson
NJD added Pesce and Dillon

I think all of those pieces are more meaningful than Laine.

They could pass Calgary but Chicago added Teuvo, Mikheyev, Bertuzzi, Brodie, and Martinez.

The amount of goals the habs scored several years ago has no bearing on the amount they will score this season. This is a completely different team, and its the most talented team they've had in an extremely long time.

From last year's team, they will be adding Laine, Dach, and Hutson. Each has the potential to have a big impact offensively.

The young players (Caufield, Slaf, Guhle, Newhook, Roy, etc.) will be more experienced and closer to their prime.

Caufield isn't going to continue shooting at a 8.9% like he did last season.

Slaf had a major progression curve last season. Its very unlikely you see the Slaf from the first half of the season who had 2 g and 8 pts in 31 games.

The Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf were an elite line in the 2nd half of last season, and will now be together for a full season.

The habs essentially didn't have a 2nd line last season, and now they could have a really good one in Laine - Dach - Newhook.

The pp was one of the worst in the nhl last season. With the added weapons, and the previous pp coach being gone, it has the potential to improve by a lot.

Depth players like Dvorak and Anderson had some of the worst seasons in their career. It won't be difficult for them to improve on their numbers.

I don't see any forwards having major regression from what they did last season.

On defense, Matheson could have lower numbers, but that will have a lot to do with him getting less offensive opportunities because of Hutson.

As long as the team stay healthy, the potential for a huge offensive improvement is there.

Caufield shooting improvement should cancel out with Suzuki shooting regression. You can't say "caufield shooting 9% isn't sustainable" while ignoring suzuki shooting 18% last year.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I think every one of the teams at the bottom (and all teams in general) has young players they're banking on improvement from. MTL is nothing special in that regard. In fact they'll likely be giving a number of minutes to rookies and kids who will likely struggle as they adjust.

In terms of external additions, MTL did not add a single UFA (only calgary and anaheim really fall into this category).

Above them:

Utah added Sergachev and Marino
Ottawa added Ullmark
Seattle added Montour and Stephenson
NJD added Pesce and Dillon

I think all of those pieces are more meaningful than Laine.

They could pass Calgary but Chicago added Teuvo, Mikheyev, Bertuzzi, Brodie, and Martinez.


Caufield shooting improvement should cancel out with Suzuki shooting regression. You can't say "caufield shooting 9% isn't sustainable" while ignoring suzuki shooting 18% last year.

Its not even about passing teams from last year. I just think they'll be better than they were the year before. ie I dont' think they'll be a 68 point team this year. Maybe 75-80 if everything goes right.

But I really don't care to spend too much time arguing how much less bad Montreal will be this season.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Caufield shooting improvement should cancel out with Suzuki shooting regression. You can't say "caufield shooting 9% isn't sustainable" while ignoring suzuki shooting 18% last year.

It doesn't cancel out because if Suzuki's shooting% regresses it will be about 2% less. If Caufield shooting% increases, it could be about 6% more.

 

[dgibb10]

Its not even about passing teams from last year. I just think they'll be better than they were the year before. ie I dont' think they'll be a 68 point team this year. Maybe 75-80 if everything goes right.

But I really don't care to spend too much time arguing how much less bad Montreal will be this season.

I think the PP should improve, although by how much who knows. Monahan was a very good PP weapon and tbh a better fit on the PP than Laine unless they take Caufield off it.

I don't see anything coming on the PK after losing their imo best PKer (and analytically) in Kovacevic.

They got very good goaltending last year but if I had to predict it for this year I'd probably predict average goaltending (although anything can happen here). This could be a sneaky important area of regression.

I don't think Dach is a legitimate asset even strength. I'm sorry but he has not shown to be an effective NHL centerman. He looked good on Suzuki's wing (at least in terms of winning his minutes, his individual production was still underwhelming), but with that slot occupied by Slaf I don't see it for him.

And Laine hasn't exactly been winning his minutes 5v5, even dating back to his last few years on a playoff team in WPG.

75.5 is the line set by vegas and it feels pretty damn accurate

It doesn't cancel out because if Suzuki's shooting% regresses it will be about 2% less. If Caufield shooting% increases, it could be about 6% more.

Expecting both Nick Suzuki and Caufield to shoot like 16% (and having that as a MINIMUM for Suzuki lmao) is certainly optimistic

 

[Wayfarer13]

The last 41 games the Montreal Canadiens were 30th in the league in xGoals share with an atrocious 42% share.

You're welcome to go place bets on them. Vegas has them hitting the exact same point total as last year with a line of 75.5 points.

That's nice but they did not have a second line for most of those 41 games ether. Looks like they have one now. Should take the pressure off the first line.

 

[dgibb10]

That's nice but they did not have a second line for most of those 41 games ether. Looks like they have one now. Should take the pressure off the first line.

Patrick Laine and Kirby Dach aren't exactly guys who win their minutes even strength.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Expecting both Nick Suzuki and Caufield to shoot 16% is certainly optimistic

Suzuki has shot at 16% or higher 2 years in a row now.

A 6% higher shooting percentage for Caufield would be 14.9%, which is easily doable for an elite shooter.

 

[Wayfarer13]

I think every one of the teams at the bottom (and all teams in general) has young players they're banking on improvement from. MTL is nothing special in that regard. In fact they'll likely be giving a number of minutes to rookies and kids who will likely struggle as they adjust.

In terms of external additions, MTL did not add a single UFA (only calgary and anaheim really fall into this category).

Above them:

Utah added Sergachev and Marino
Ottawa added Ullmark
Seattle added Montour and Stephenson
NJD added Pesce and Dillon

I think all of those pieces are more meaningful than Laine.

They could pass Calgary but Chicago added Teuvo, Mikheyev, Bertuzzi, Brodie, and Martinez.


Caufield shooting improvement should cancel out with Suzuki shooting regression. You can't say "caufield shooting 9% isn't sustainable" while ignoring suzuki shooting 18% last year.

How do things stack out should Laine score 40 Goals (I would happy with 30)

Patrick Laine and Kirby Dach aren't exactly guys who win their minutes even strength.

Translate that into English

It doesn't cancel out because if Suzuki's shooting% regresses it will be about 2% less. If Caufield shooting% increases, it could be about 6% more.

Caufeild was 19.4% in his last 9 games

 

[dgibb10]

How do things stack out should Laine score 40 Goals (I would happy with 30)


Translate that into English

Cam Atkinson has hit 40 goals more recently than Laine.

And Laine requires significant power play time (this is going to take away significant production from 1 of Caufield, Slaf, or Dach).



When Patrick Laine and Kirby Dach are on the ice, the other team is usually outshooting, outchancing, and outscoring them. (and this dates back to when laine was on a playoff contender in WPG, and don't give me some BS about how playing with newhook and Dach is somehow better than Johnny Hockey).

Kirby Dach had a brief period of success as a winger with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Unfortunately, that is also where Slaf had his success. And you can't play them both with Caufield-Suzuki

 

[Apfel Struble]

I think the PP should improve, although by how much who knows. Monahan was a very good PP weapon and tbh a better fit on the PP than Laine unless they take Caufield off it.

I don't see anything coming on the PK after losing their imo best PKer (and analytically) in Kovacevic.

They got very good goaltending last year but if I had to predict it for this year I'd probably predict average goaltending (although anything can happen here). This could be a sneaky important area of regression.

I don't think Dach is a legitimate asset even strength. I'm sorry but he has not shown to be an effective NHL centerman. He looked good on Suzuki's wing (at least in terms of winning his minutes, his individual production was still underwhelming), but with that slot occupied by Slaf I don't see it for him.

And Laine hasn't exactly been winning his minutes 5v5, even dating back to his last few years on a playoff team in WPG.

75.5 is the line set by vegas and it feels pretty damn accurate


Expecting both Nick Suzuki and Caufield to shoot like 16% (and having that as a MINIMUM for Suzuki lmao) is certainly optimistic

Montembeault also had a very good season two years ago on an absolutely awful team. That might be his new norm tbh. He has become a very good goalie. Primeau however could see his numbers drop

Disagree on Dach, even strength is actually a strength of his. He’s one of the best forwards at 5v5 on the whole roster. Controled exits and zone entries, keeping possession and cycling are some of his best attributes; very conducive to 5v5. Laine and Caufield however…

The Habs are the most likely team in the Atlantic to finish 8th, but there’s a decent chance they get 7th. The roster has a high untapped potential compared to the last two years. With continued strong showing from Montembeault and general improvement from the young players, 82 points seems probable IMO

About the Vegas thing, I don’t know. I’m not saying about you in particular, but fans tend to see the oddsmakers as wise knowledgeable institutions, but they’re not anything special compared to pundits, just more risk adverse. They make their money through the margins on the bets and drawing clients to their other high margin products, not some grand foresight. I’d trust the NHL.com pundits as much as them tbh

 

[Wayfarer13]

Cam Atkinson has hit 40 goals more recently than Laine.

And Laine requires significant power play time (this is going to take away significant production from 1 of Caufield, Slaf, or Dach).



When Patrick Laine and Kirby Dach are on the ice, the other team is usually outshooting, outchancing, and outscoring them. (and this dates back to when laine was on a playoff contender in WPG, and don't give me some BS about how playing with newhook and Dach is somehow better than Johnny Hockey).

Kirby Dach had a brief period of success as a winger with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Unfortunately, that is also where Slaf had his success. And you can't play them both with Caufield-Suzuki

Cam Atkinson is also 35 years old.
Saying here the Habs are the front runner for another first overall?
I suspect this is going to be a rough year for you.
I see a teem leaning the right way.
A month to go and we will see

 

[Lshap]

Montembault had an excellent year last year. As did Primeau.

Do I project them to be excellent again next year? Probably not.

That is how goalie volatility works. Goalies have great years out of nowhere then fall off the next year.

There are very few goalies in the league that I would predict to be/are consistently excellent. I don't think I'd put Montembault in that class with Shesterkin, Hellebuyuck, Sorokin (and even he had a down year last year), or Swayman.

I think the Montreal canadiens record is likely to reflect their goal differential (bottom 5 last year), and analytical level of play (bottom 5 last year).

I do not think adding Patrick Laine will move the needle in terms of winning play 5v5.

And I do not believe that the bump in PP he will provide will be enough.

There is a reason the vegas line for MTLs points is 75.5.

So Montreal's "absolutely incredible goaltending" will magically fall apart, just like they'll magically lose every close game.

It's a charming story, but I've seen more accurate analysis from a Tarot reading.

 

[Lshap]

If you don't believe in statistics, here's a simple one for you.

Montreal won less games in 23-24 than they did in 22-23

Here's an even simpler statistic: Montreal had 8 more points in 2023/24 than they did in 2022/23.

 

[Wayfarer13]

So Montreal's "absolutely incredible goaltending" will magically fall apart, just like they'll magically lose every close game.

It's a charming story, but I've seen more accurate analysis from a Tarot reading.

Should be pickin stocks

 

[Lshap]

Should be pickin stocks

Some people are straining so hard to imagine the worst outcome you can actually see beads of sweat on their posts.

 

[Aladyyn]

We're like 15 years into the analytics era and people think they can predict the future using Corsi without context

I've been hearing this for over a decade and Corsi is still undefeated

 

[JianYang]

The idea that MTL is right in the thick with Detroit, Buffalo, and Ottawa in terms of hopes going into next season is kinda crazy.

There's a reason the vegas point lines (looking at FanDuel) for each team are:

88.5 for buffalo
90.5 for Detroit
91.5 for Ottawa


75.5 for Montreal

for some context, MTL's point line is as close to detroits, as detroits is to Edmonton's

Only CBJ (68.5), MTL (75.5), Chicago (74.5), SJS 64.5), Calgary (81.5) and Anaheim (72.5) are below 85 points.

MTL was a bottom 5 team last year despite getting absolutely incredible goaltending results.

They did not add a single UFA.

Lot of expectations on Patrick Laine to stay healthy and do some real heavy lifting.

Then internal poll on the habs forum is mostly suggesting that this will be another non playoff year. Where they exactly end up is kind of getting into hair splitting territory but the general expectation isn't something far fetched even on the team board.

It will probably be more fun with the 2nd line additions of dach and laine, but the team is still very young particularly on defense, and some of the better prospects are still either not in the nhl or just starting getting their feet wet. This year is not the time, nor do I think is it meant to be the time.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Ottawa is likely the team most poised to make a 22-23 NJD type jump (where NJD went from -60 goaltending to +10 causing a massive swing).

I would agree that's possible, however that still doesn't line up with the actual point adressed; that Detroit/Ottawa/Buffalo/Montreal is the "bad group" in the division. You are basically agreeing with my larger point about uncertainty in the division, only difference is that you're a stronger believer in Ottawa and you're putting more money on Detroit regressing.

I've been hearing this for over a decade and Corsi is still undefeated

Corsi gets defeated every season.

 

[dgibb10]

So Montreal's "absolutely incredible goaltending" will magically fall apart, just like they'll magically lose every close game.

It's a charming story, but I've seen more accurate analysis from a Tarot reading.

Not what I said at all.

Goalies are volatile year to year. And Montembault and Primeau are not in the tier where you can expect great goaltending every year. 1 great year of goaltending does not mean those goalies will be great again every year after. They could be as good, they could be better, they could be worse, they could be a lot worse.

If I was to predict, I would expect average to slightly above average goaltending from MTL.

Jacob Markstrom was also excellent last year. If I were to expect him to repeat his 30 GSAx season again that would be incredibly unlikely and optimistic.

I expect MTLs record to reflect their goal differential. I expect their goal differential to reflect their expected goal differential.

MTL had a pretty normal record in close games considering their overall record. (in fact they got a bunch of loser points to inflate their point totals).

When have I said I expect them to lose all their close games? I expect them to have less than 26 OT games next year, and less than 16 loser points next year.

something around 34-40-8 (a 4 win increase) would be a pretty reasonable record to expect, for 76 points once again

 

[dgibb10]

Montembeault also had a very good season two years ago on an absolutely awful team. That might be his new norm tbh. He has become a very good goalie. Primeau however could see his numbers drop

Disagree on Dach, even strength is actually a strength of his. He’s one of the best forwards at 5v5 on the whole roster. Controled exits and zone entries, keeping possession and cycling are some of his best attributes; very conducive to 5v5. Laine and Caufield however…

The Habs are the most likely team in the Atlantic to finish 8th, but there’s a decent chance they get 7th. The roster has a high untapped potential compared to the last two years. With continued strong showing from Montembeault and general improvement from the young players, 82 points seems probable IMO

About the Vegas thing, I don’t know. I’m not saying about you in particular, but fans tend to see the oddsmakers as wise knowledgeable institutions, but they’re not anything special compared to pundits, just more risk adverse. They make their money through the margins on the bets and drawing clients to their other high margin products, not some grand foresight. I’d trust the NHL.com pundits as much as them tbh

I like Montembault a lot. 2 good years (which he has had) from a 27 year old waiver claim is just not enough for me to lock him in to provide top 10 goaltending again. 1 more year of this, which is certainly possible, and he would have my faith.

Dach has simply not been successful as a centermen 5v5. His individual production has been lacklustre at best for a top 6 guy (never cracked 20 points 5v5 and his rates usually fall outside the top 200 for forwards).

And, outside of a stretch playing on Nick Suzuki's wing, his possession metrics have also been pretty dogshit throughout his career.

If you think Vegas is wrong to set the line at 75.5, I'd recommend taking advantage of it.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

What was the purpose of this thread again? I forgot.

 

[Lshap]

Not what I said at all.

Goalies are volatile year to year. And Montembault and Primeau are not in the tier where you can expect great goaltending every year. 1 great year of goaltending does not mean those goalies will be great again every year after. They could be as good, they could be better, they could be worse, they could be a lot worse.

If I was to predict, I would expect average to slightly above average goaltending from MTL.

Jacob Markstrom was also excellent last year. If I were to expect him to repeat his 30 GSAx season again that would be incredibly unlikely and optimistic.

I expect MTLs record to reflect their goal differential. I expect their goal differential to reflect their expected goal differential.

MTL had a pretty normal record in close games considering their overall record. (in fact they got a bunch of loser points to inflate their point totals).

When have I said I expect them to lose all their close games? I expect them to have less than 26 OT games next year, and less than 16 loser points next year.

something around 34-40-8 (a 4 win increase) would be a pretty reasonable record to expect, for 76 points once again

Your premise is wrong from the start. Montreal's record was NOT propped up by amazing goaltending. Therefore there's no logical argument that Montembeault is due to regress. That's pure fantasy. Markstrom at 34/35 is much more likely to regress and take New Jersey even further down.

As for the Habs' goal differential, it reflects a young core of defencemen and forwards who are developing and improving each season... not to mention the high-end prospects being added to the team. The differential has been improving as the team continues to grow, which is why their overall record continues to improve. There's no logical argument that everything will regress.

You're trying hard to sell the notion that everything will magically get worse for Montreal, but it mostly reads like wishful thinking.