Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[dgibb10]

If they match the second performance there's the first 20. If the second line clicks that's less coverage given to them.Gotta be few goals in that.Hutson ?Gee the boy has skills a few goals there. If health agrees 20 for sure and then add to it.

Let's assume patrick Laine makes MTLs power play click at 20%. That would be 6 extra goals. (presumably these extra goals would be going to laine as the trigger man, but we'll give them all to the Slaf line)

So to make up the other 34 goals that would have to be even strength. Or a 67% increase on their 51 even strength goals last year.

For context 85 even strength goals would be 28 goals a piece. Here is a list of players to score at least 28 even strength goals last year:

Matthews, Point, Hyman, Panarin, Forsberg, Mackinnon, Pastrnak. 7 guys.

The other path to more goals would be more PP opportunities (although ottawa who led the league in PP opportunities only got 30 more than MTL, or about 6 goals with a 20% PP). However, based on the way the NHL refs manages games, that would also mean more PK tries for one of the worst PKs in the league. And trading a 20% pp for a 75% pk is not a winning trade for MTL.

 

[Wayfarer13]

40 more goals from the first line lmao.

I'd recommend betting thousands of dollars on them to make the playoffs at like +1000 or the cup at like +10000 if you think they have even the slightest chance of averaging 40 goals each between the 3 of them with Laine also hitting 30.

The Mackinnon Rantanen line didn't come close to 120 goals between the 3 of them (112)

MCDAVID DRAISAITL AND HYMAN only combined for 127 goals.



I haven't used corsi a single time in this thread

The first 20 goals are well within potential reach for the trio given their age and second half trend.If they continue to develop? Gee failed to have seen the ceiling here.

 

[dgibb10]

The first 20 goals are well within potential reach for the trio given their age and second half trend.If they continue to develop? Gee failed to have seen the ceiling here.

If by second half trend you're referring to unsustainable shooting %s sure.

 

[BostonBob]

What was the purpose of this thread again? I forgot.

Duh - obviously it was for some Toronto fans to tell us why Boston, Tampa Bay and Florida might fall out of the top 4 spots and that there's no chance Toronto will do the same.

 

[Wayfarer13]

If by second half trend you're referring to unsustainable shooting %s sure.

What is data leading to the assertion that shooting percentage is unsustainable and could that be merely mitigated by taking more shots.CC scored 8 goals( an indicator his shoulder was feeling a lot better)in his last 9 games.Shootinf % was 19.4% and he did shoot the puck an awful lot in those games.

 

[dgibb10]

What is data leading to the assertion that shooting percentage is unsustainable and could that be merely mitigated by taking more shots.CC scored 8 goals( an indicator his shoulder was feeling a lot better)in his last 9 games.Shootinf % was 19.4% and he did shoot the puck an awful lot in those games.

"shoot more". Damn NHL coaches should hire you with this genius idea. Crazy how nobody has thought of this yet.

They should also try letting the other team shoot less. I think that would be a great way to stop goals against.

 

[CDN24]

The last 41 games the Montreal Canadiens were 30th in the league in xGoals share with an atrocious 42% share.

You're welcome to go place bets on them. Vegas has them hitting the exact same point total as last year with a line of 75.5 points.

The line up the Habs iced in the last 41 games of last season is very different from what they will ice this year. They won't make the playoffs but should be well above 75.5 pts. Habs got lucky last year in a way in that they were decimated by injuries, especially at centre. This allowed them to finish bottom 5 and draft one more high pick in Demidov.

This is their centres from game 50 last year. They only had 3

Nick Suzuki
Jake Evans
Brandon Gignac

Dach played all of 4 periods last year
Dvorak missed over 50 games
Newhook who can play centre if needed missed a couple of months
Monahan was traded at that point.

Fortunately they were able to grab Colin White off waivers a couple weeks later to play 4th line centre - he put up all of zero points for them in 17 games to go with his zero points in Pittsburgh.

Yes injuries can happen again but, they have added essentially

Dach/Laine/Roy/Dvorak and maybe a kid like Beck/Kappanen to last yrs forward group that played those last 41 game

Dvorak may not be much but he is a big improvement over Brandon Gignac, collin white and nobody

Young Guys like Caulfield/Slaf/Newhook and Suzuki are still improving.

They have talent coming on D.

They should be well north of 75.5 pts

 

[nbwingsfan]

Rookie Edvinsson is likely a downgrade from 27 year old Walman

Kane played 50 games last year and also expecting him to play more at age 36 (and be as good as he was last year) is questionable.

Rookie Edvinsson is absolutely not worse than Walman unless he has a brutal season.

He was already better last year.

Kane coming off of what was expected to be career ending surgery and missing the first 3rd of the season and training camp is very likely not worse than Kane this year.

Then there’s all the other stuff that was just ignored by you.

 

[Wayfarer13]

"shoot more". Damn NHL coaches should hire you with this genius idea. Crazy how nobody has thought of this yet.

They should also try letting the other team shoot less. I think that would be a great way to stop goals against.

The defensive systems are yet be taught.Worst thing for a Habs fan to hear of a player was " He's a 200ft player" Translated as he can check but has been brow beaten to the point where he dares not go on the attack. Things are progressing nicely here.

 

[dgibb10]

The line up the Habs iced in the last 41 games of last season is very different from what they will ice this year. They won't make the playoffs but should be well above 75.5 pts. Habs got lucky last year in a way in that they were decimated by injuries, especially at centre. This allowed them to finish bottom 5 and draft one more high pick in Demidov.

This is their centres from game 50 last year. They only had 3

Nick Suzuki
Jake Evans
Brandon Gignac

Dach played all of 4 periods last year
Dvorak missed over 50 games
Newhook who can play centre if needed missed a couple of months
Monahan was traded at that point.

Fortunately they were able to grab Colin White off waivers a couple weeks later to play 4th line centre - he put up all of zero points for them in 17 games to go with his zero points in Pittsburgh.

Yes injuries can happen again but, they have added essentially

Dach/Laine/Roy/Dvorak and maybe a kid like Beck/Kappanen to last yrs forward group that played those last 41 game

Dvorak may not be much but he is a big improvement over Brandon Gignac, collin white and nobody

Young Guys like Caulfield/Slaf/Newhook and Suzuki are still improving.

They have talent coming on D.

They should be well north of 75.5 pts

Then you should thank me for informing you of this wonderful money making opportunity.

You can get +600 odds on them to hit 90 points as well.

 

[dgibb10]

Rookie Edvinsson is absolutely not worse than Walman unless he has a brutal season.

He was already better last year.

Kane coming off of what was expected to be career ending surgery and missing the first 3rd of the season and training camp is very likely not worse than Kane this year.

Then there’s all the other stuff that was just ignored by you.

Betting on unproven rookies to beat out guys in their primes and 37 year olds to IMPROVE is certainly bold.

Goaltenders aren't predictable, but Lyon was very good last year and you're betting on a 38 year old talbot. I expect similar goaltending results, although could be worse, could be better

Interesting how Seider gets every excuse made in the world for the tough minutes he faced, but Walman playing those exact same minutes does not.

 

[dgibb10]

The defensive systems are yet be taught.Worst thing for a Habs fan to hear of a player was " He's a 200ft player" Translated as he can check but has been brow beaten to the point where he dares not go on the attack. Things are progressing nicely here.

If a coach hasn't implemented a defensive system in 3 years on the job that coach should be fired.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Duh - obviously it was for some Toronto fans to tell us why Boston, Tampa Bay and Florida might fall out of the top 4 spots and that there's no chance Toronto will do the same.

 

[Wayfarer13]

If a coach hasn't implemented a defensive system in 3 years on the job that coach should be fired.

Old way of thinking.
This is a rebuild but not the standard one.
Come back in 5 years and give a verdict
Going to be a fun year for us Habs fans.Quite excited for those young defenseman going up against Toronto this weekend in the rookie games.

 

[dgibb10]

Old way of thinking.
This is a rebuild but not the standard one.
Come back in 5 years and give a verdict
Going to be a fun year for us Habs fans.Quite excited for those young defenseman going up against Toronto this weekend in the rookie games.

3 years of no system = 3 years of bad defensive habits developed and ingrained.

But hey, I imagine convincing yourself that "he just hasn't implemented a system yet" is a lot easier than acknowledging how atrocious the results have been defensively since MSL took over.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

What I am gathering from this thread is that all questions in Hab land will land into the positive this year and nothing will go wrong lol. You can't list off ten different "ifs" that need to happen for a team to improve and act like there isn't the inverse where a young player doesn't progress like expected, your goalie turns into a sieve, run into injury troubles. Honestly think the biggest test for most teams that do make that break through from bad team to playoff team is how they are able to deal with the bad that inevitably happens over a long season.

 

[BostonBob]

View attachment 906649

Looks like planning a parade in Toronto takes a very long time. Holy crap - I just noticed the " and how many " part. Nice job The Hockey News.....nice job.

 

[Wayfarer13]

What I am gathering from this thread is that all questions in Hab land will land into the positive this year and nothing will go wrong lol. You can't list off ten different "ifs" that need to happen for a team to improve and act like there isn't the inverse where a young player doesn't progress like expected, your goalie turns into a sieve, run into injury troubles. Honestly think the biggest test for most teams that do make that break through from bad team to playoff team is how they are able to deal with the bad that inevitably happens over a long season.

The injury bug? We've had 3 years to learn how to deal with it. No one is saying there will be no trials and tribulations but as much as things can be mitigated the team has done it. The arc looks they are a riser this year. Me personally at this time I conclude that I have reason to be optimistic. A playoff is within the possible. If that offends someone then that belongs to them.

 

[Wayfarer13]

3 years of no system = 3 years of bad defensive habits developed and ingrained.

But hey, I imagine convincing yourself that "he just hasn't implemented a system yet" is a lot easier than acknowledging how atrocious the results have been defensively since MSL took over.

One of the youngest teams in the league with youngest blueline. An increase in points each of the last 2 years with last being involved in 41 1 goal and 15 2 goal games. I see a team teetering on a tipping point leaning toward the positive . Exactly how more points should this team have had if you had been at its head? You are arguing this team has under preformed am I correct?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

The injury bug? We've had 3 years to learn how to deal with it. No one is saying there will be no trials and tribulations but as much as things can be mitigated the team has done it. The arc looks they are a riser this year. Me personally at this time I conclude that I have reason to be optimistic. A playoff is within the possible. If that offends someone then that belongs to them.

You don't "learn to deal with the injury bug" until you actually get through it lol it is the kind of thing that has to be proven not spoken about. Got no problem with optimisim but you guys are coming out of the fun part of a rebuild where everything is sunshine and rainbows and the future is boundless. Going from the whole being awful with a purpose to pushing into a playoff spot is the hardest hurdle to break in a rebuild as shown by a few teams in our own division. Not that I am saying you guys will or won't fall into that pattern, but to act like there won't be any downs on your way up is crazy lol

 

[Strangle]

Was watching overdrive yesterday and Noodles said that Brad Marchand had 3 different surgeries this summer and that it didn't sound like he was going to be ready to go ro start the season.

Can't help but wonder how much that will impact Boston if he misses time.

The forward core is not deep in Boston

I think the Bruins are the most likely team to fall out of the playoffs

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I think the Bruins are the most likely team to fall out of the playoffs

Everytime someone says this the Bruins add 4 points to their season total every year I am positive. Just staying at the top of the division out of spite.

 

[Ezekial]

Rookie Edvinsson is likely a downgrade from 27 year old Walman

Kane played 50 games last year and also expecting him to play more at age 36 (and be as good as he was last year) is questionable.

Walman has somehow become the most overrated player on the 23-24 Wings.

Kane played 50 games after missing the beginning of the season rehabbing. This season he's actually building strength on his body rather than recovering from hip surgery so yes, I expect him to play more than he played last year.

 

[Strangle]

Everytime someone says this the Bruins add 4 points to their season total every year I am positive. Just staying at the top of the division out of spite.

Agreed. That’s what they did when I said the same thing last year

 

[BostonBob]

I think the Bruins are the most likely team to fall out of the playoffs

Be prepared to be disappointed.....again.