Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[thebestnic]

It's amazing how quickly expectations have risen for the Habs this year.

Sens finished two points ahead of the Habs.

 

[NyQuil]

Sens finished two points ahead of the Habs.

With the worst goaltending in the league.

What does that say about the Habs?

 

[Lshap]

It's amazing how quickly expectations have risen for the Habs this year.

From Habs fans' perspective, expectations have been building slowly over the last two/three years. The entire core was rebooted; since then the team's been improving incrementally. This is the first year many of us see them entering the next tier in the standing – not playoffs, but getting close. The young roster is developing, they've got high-upside rookies coming in. The conversation has shifted from last season to this one which, from the outside, looks sudden. But from the inside.... feels like we've been waiting a lonnnng time.

 

[sena]

panthers
leafs
sens
bruins
lightnin
wings
habs
Buff

 

[thebestnic]

With the worst goaltending in the league.

What does that say about the Habs?

That they have finished 2 points behind the Sens. Apparently the Sens are the only team allowed to make improvements in the offseason. I have the Sens as a 88 points ish team this season and I would put the Habs at 82 for the record. I just think saying they are in a completely different universe like the poster was doing is stupid

 

[dgibb10]

It's amazing how quickly expectations have risen for the Habs this year.

The idea that MTL is right in the thick with Detroit, Buffalo, and Ottawa in terms of hopes going into next season is kinda crazy.

There's a reason the vegas point lines (looking at FanDuel) for each team are:

88.5 for buffalo
90.5 for Detroit
91.5 for Ottawa


75.5 for Montreal

for some context, MTL's point line is as close to detroits, as detroits is to Edmonton's

Only CBJ (68.5), MTL (75.5), Chicago (74.5), SJS 64.5), Calgary (81.5) and Anaheim (72.5) are below 85 points.

MTL was a bottom 5 team last year despite getting absolutely incredible goaltending results.

They did not add a single UFA.

Lot of expectations on Patrick Laine to stay healthy and do some real heavy lifting.

 

[norrisnick]

Detroits other big edge this past year besides excellent shooting was penalty differential. Usually penalty differential is around net 0 for a team, because of how refs game manage.

Detroit had a below average PK, below average PP, and were not good Even Strength. Usually not a great recipe for success

Ottawa is likely the team most poised to make a 22-23 NJD type jump (where NJD went from -60 goaltending to +10 causing a massive swing).

Now, they hired an absolute buffoon as a coach so I expect their analytics to be much worse next year to counteract better goaltending (like how Green had a worse record with terrible analytics than Ruff despite getting some rock solid goaltending after taking over)

Couple points here.
1. Ottawa and Tampa's PP opp differentials were also solidly above 0. Ottawa's even higher than Detroit's at a +38
2. Detroit's PK was ranked 14th, definitely what I'd call average.
3. Detroit's PP was ranked 9th, slightly above average?
4. Agreed they weren't good at ES
5. The roster isn't the same as it was last season. Particularly with a few key players being young and still ramping up to their primes. Regression to a mean might make sense during the course of a season with minimal roster turnover, but... moving out 4-5 guys bringing in 4-5 guys... stuff changes.

 

[Tuggy]

It's amazing how quickly expectations have risen for the Habs this year.

Competing with Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit is not exactly raising expectations that much.

 

[bert]

Detroit isn't a "bad" club.

They arent any better than Ottawa or Buffalo on paper thats for sure. So if the other two are then they are.

 

[Wayfarer13]

The idea that MTL is right in the thick with Detroit, Buffalo, and Ottawa in terms of hopes going into next season is kinda crazy.

There's a reason the vegas point lines (looking at FanDuel) for each team are:

88.5 for buffalo
90.5 for Detroit
91.5 for Ottawa


75.5 for Montreal

for some context, MTL's point line is as close to detroits, as detroits is to Edmonton's

Only CBJ (68.5), MTL (75.5), Chicago (74.5), SJS 64.5), Calgary (81.5) and Anaheim (72.5) are below 85 points.

MTL was a bottom 5 team last year despite getting absolutely incredible goaltending results.

They did not add a single UFA.

Lot of expectations on Patrick Laine to stay healthy and do some real heavy lifting.

The Habs were in 41 1 goal games 14-27 and another 15 2 goal games .They were in 2/3 of the games they played.Would not take a lot to turn losses into wins.The first line scored 53 goals in the second half which would have put them top 6 and that having no second line. They have one this year.Hopefully MSL starts teaching defensive systems this year which will improve the goals against. Hutson is the wild card this year and we will see on him.

With the worst goaltending in the league.

What does that say about the Habs?

They were not as far along the rebuild curve?The goaltending was fine

 

[bert]

That’s last year. We are predicting this coming season. And I see Detroit as in the bottom four in their division. I see the bottom four finishing:
Ottawa
Buffalo
Detroit
Montreal.

Ottawa and Buffalo should be the top 2 of those 4 they have significantly more talented teams at the more important positions. Ottawa may not make the playoffs but they had a good offseason in insulating its young players with veterans and players that are hard to play against. Ottawa had league worst goaltending last season, if the even get average goaltending its going to increase the point total by atleast 10. They will also have Pinto for a full season and wont have the instability they had last year with all the chaos of the new owner, the suspension, losing the pick turnover in management and coaching. There is some stability, I dont know if they make the playoffs but it cant go any worse than it did last year.

 

[dgibb10]

Couple points here.
1. Ottawa and Tampa's PP opp differentials were also solidly above 0. Ottawa's even higher than Detroit's at a +38
2. Detroit's PK was ranked 14th, definitely what I'd call average.
3. Detroit's PP was ranked 9th, slightly above average?
4. Agreed they weren't good at ES
5. The roster isn't the same as it was last season. Particularly with a few key players being young and still ramping up to their primes. Regression to a mean might make sense during the course of a season with minimal roster turnover, but... moving out 4-5 guys bringing in 4-5 guys... stuff changes.

Detroits PP ranked 18th in goal differential/60 (+6.6/60)
Detroits PK ranked 19th in goal differential/60 (-6.71/60)
Detroits EV ranked 23rd in goal differential/60 (-0.16/60)
If you look at xGoals metrics they were better on the PP, and absolutely atrocious on the PK (only MTL was worse).


I don't see much steep improvement available internally. Sure Seider and Raymond are young and developing (but they are getting to the generally slower part of the development curve), but on the other side you a number of guys in their 30s, the most important one being Kane at age 36.

 

[bert]

The idea that MTL is right in the thick with Detroit, Buffalo, and Ottawa in terms of hopes going into next season is kinda crazy.

There's a reason the vegas point lines (looking at FanDuel) for each team are:

88.5 for buffalo
90.5 for Detroit
91.5 for Ottawa


75.5 for Montreal

for some context, MTL's point line is as close to detroits, as detroits is to Edmonton's

Only CBJ (68.5), MTL (75.5), Chicago (74.5), SJS 64.5), Calgary (81.5) and Anaheim (72.5) are below 85 points.

MTL was a bottom 5 team last year despite getting absolutely incredible goaltending results.

They did not add a single UFA.

Lot of expectations on Patrick Laine to stay healthy and do some real heavy lifting.

Bingo. Also add the fact the team is going to have real expectations this year whether its warranted or not. All you have to see if the online presence of Montreal fans and the media. Its not easy for young teams to switch from no pressure to pressure ask sens and sabers fans.

 

[dgibb10]

The Habs were in 41 1 goal games 14-27 and another 15 2 goal games .They were in 2/3 of the games they played.Would not take a lot to turn losses into wins.The first line scored 53 goals in the second half which would have put them top 6 and that having no second line. They have one this year.Hopefully MSL starts teaching defensive systems this year which will improve the goals against. Hutson is the wild card this year and we will see on him.


They were not as far along the rebuild curve?The goaltending was fine

MTL had a bottom 5 goal differential
MTL had a bottom 5 expected goal differential
MTL had a bottom 5 record.

This idea that MTL was better than their record suggested last year is just wrong.

 

[norrisnick]

Detroits PP ranked 18th in goal differential/60 (+6.6/60)
Detroits PK ranked 19th in goal differential/60 (-6.71/60)
Detroits EV ranked 23rd in goal differential/60 (-0.16/60)
If you look at xGoals metrics they were better on the PP, and absolutely atrocious on the PK (only MTL was worse).


I don't see much steep improvement available internally. Sure Seider and Raymond are young and developing (but they are getting to the generally slower part of the development curve), but on the other side you a number of guys in their 30s, the most important one being Kane at age 36.

Why would any one?

 

[dgibb10]

Why would any one?

Well, if you were trying to look forward to a future season, like we are in this scenario, expected goals metrics are much better indicators of future success.

 

[Wayfarer13]

You

MTL had a bottom 5 goal differential
MTL had a bottom 5 expected goal differential
MTL had a bottom 5 record.

This idea that MTL was better than their record suggested last year is just wrong.

Gave averages there which does give the entire story. 2/3 of the games they were in and had a rep of being a tough team to play against. The demographics of the team leans toward Improvement. I suspect I am going to be reading a lot of "The Habs are over rated" comments on here this year

 

[norrisnick]

Well, if you were trying to look forward to a future season, like we are in this scenario, expected goals metrics are much better indicators of future success.

But they apparently weren't a very good indicator last season since the Wings outperformed their xG...

Feels like a metric made to make you feel better for underperforming. We did poorly, but we were expected to do better. If you did better than expected, why care what you were expected to do?

 

[Meichel Kane]

8-way tie

 

[Aladyyn]

We're like 15 years into the analytics era and people still delude themselves into thinking their 45% Corsi team has somehow figured it out. I guess people just never learn.

 

[Wayfarer13]

8-way tie

Funny thing is that quip may not be all that far off the mark this year

 

[dgibb10]

But they apparently weren't a very good indicator last season since the Wings outperformed their xG...

Feels like a metric made to make you feel better for underperforming. We did poorly, but we were expected to do better. If you did better than expected, why care what you were expected to do?

You are failing to understand the difference between predictive and descriptive stats.

Shooting 20% or getting 95% goaltending is almost certain to lead to a great season or deep playoff run. If you get this, you will do well.

The problem is that riding great shooting or incredible goaltending is not generally sustainable year to year outside of having Igor Shesterkin. So when you look forward, winning play, generating more and higher quality chances is a much better predictor of future success.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

At some point Montreal/Ottawa/Buffalo/Detroit will catch up and some of the top 4 will fall behind. As a Tampa fan, I know our time is coming, it's just hard to say when. I don't think it will be this year but I wouldn't be crazy if it was.

Boston
Toronto
Florida
Tampa (WC1)
Detroit
Buffalo
Ottawa
Montreal

The order of the bottom 4 is very difficult to figure out, I could talk myself into any of them taking the next step.

 

[dgibb10]

You
Gave averages there which does give the entire story. 2/3 of the games they were in and had a rep of being a tough team to play against. The demographics of the team leans toward Improvement. I suspect I am going to be reading a lot of "The Habs are over rated" comments on here this year

You don't understand statistics all that well do you?

MTL won a pretty high number of 1 goal games
they lost a pretty high number of 1 goal games
They lost a TON of blowouts
They rarely blew out their opponents.

Those 1 goal losses are just as likely to to turn into 2 goal losses, those 1 goal wins are just as likely to turn into losses.

MTL is unlikely to go to 26 OT games next year. They will likely go to less, and so have less extra points available.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

The habs are going to surprise a lot of people this year. They likely won't be a good defensive team, but they will score a lot of goals.