Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[Racer88]

Okay, let's look at the facts.

First 23 games, under Babcock: 78 point pace
Final 47 games, under Keefe: 103 point pace
This season, under Keefe: 113 point pace

Play in round with Keefe……failed.
First round this year under Keefe…..failed. those are also facts

 

[ToneDog]

Which Andy are you talking about? Him at his very best 3-4 seasons ago? I'd agree.

The way he performed last season, it's not that hard to improve upon.

I'm talking about a healthy Andy which he should be to start the season. The Canes paid him more than what Mrazek signed for here. Tells me they agree Andy is the better goalie. Won't take long to find out which Andy they are getting.

 

[ToneDog]

I still think our core edges theirs out so I continue to be more bullish on the Leafs... helps too when it's the only other team to have not won a playoff series in the cap era lol.

Our core is better than most cores if they deliver. The rest I give a slight edge to them until I see what our new guys bring.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Play in round with Keefe……failed.
First round this year under Keefe…..failed. those are also facts

Okay, but the discussion and this thread are both about the regular season.

 

[Buds17]

I'm talking about a healthy Andy which he should be to start the season. The Canes paid him more than what Mrazek signed for here. Tells me they agree Andy is the better goalie. Won't take long to find out which Andy they are getting.

More money for Andersen per season but more money for Mrazek overall via the longer term on his contract. Interesting "trade" nevertheless and I'm sure each team is hoping to receive more from its new goalie option in comparison to last season's output.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Small sample size of playoff games is a relative given, but exacerbated by our inability to win a round.

Over the last three years, there are twelve teams with more playoff games (and twelve with fewer and eight with none), and six with more than twice as many.

So what do we consider "big enough", and over what period? If 100 games is the minimum, then you have to include seven seasons to get one team. Even if you set the bar at 80 games, seven seasons barely gets you three teams (the Leafs have only 32 games). And seven seasons is a long time.

Since the regular season doesn't seem too indicative of playoff performance, and going back too far loses relevance, you're pretty much stuck with a "small sample size".

 

[Eternal Leaf]

In the end, only the playoffs matter.

They could finish 1st and it means nothing. It's the sad reality of this team because it can't prove itself until next May.

As for the standings:

Tampa
Boston
Toronto
Florida
Montreal
Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

 

[egd27]

Okay, let's look at the facts.

First 23 games, under Babcock: 78 point pace
Final 47 games, under Keefe: 103 point pace
This season, under Keefe: 113 point pace

Sure.....let's go with that as it it completely ignores the point that was being made about the 3 parts of the 2019-20 season and how once they got "comfortable" with Keefe, they went right back to .5oo(ish) hockey.

What's your prediction as to how they will finish in the Atlantic this season as I don't seem to see it here in the prediction thread.

 

[Magic Man]

1. Tampa Bay
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Florida
5. Montreal
6. Ottawa
7. Detroit
8. Buffalo

Back to the normal routine. Still, picking the Leafs to take round #1.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sure.....let's go with that as it it completely ignores the point that was being made about the 3 parts of the 2019-20 season and how once they got "comfortable" with Keefe, they went right back to .5oo(ish) hockey.

You're the one that decided to split the season into 3 parts for no reason (even though the entire Keefe period was being discussed), and then completely dismiss his amazing record with the team when it was remotely healthy - instead focusing exclusively on the period of relative struggles that just so happened to directly align with our team being completely decimated to injury and our starting goalie imploding. Then, instead of acknowledging the obvious reasons for the record during that period, you arbitrarily conclude that it was somehow about "getting comfortable with Keefe", which is supported by absolutely nothing.

 

[BlueForever75]

1. TB
2. Toronto
3. Florida
4. Boston
5. Montreal
6. Ottawa
7. Detroit
8. Buffalo

In our division the team to take the biggest dive in standings are the Boston Bruins. Their team is getting older and their team has lost some key pieces. Florida and Toronto move up in the standings.

With all this being said, it really doesnt matter where Toronto finishes this season as long as they make the playoffs and go on a run. That is all that this season will be measured on. Past playoff exits have made this season essential for playoff success.

 

[Fogelhund]

With all this being said, it really doesnt matter where Toronto finishes this season as long as they make the playoffs and go on a run. That is all that this season will be measured on. Past playoff exits have made this season essential for playoff success.

This THIS and this. All that matters.

 

[ACC1224]

Sure.....let's go with that as it it completely ignores the point that was being made about the 3 parts of the 2019-20 season and how once they got "comfortable" with Keefe, they went right back to .5oo(ish) hockey.

What's your prediction as to how they will finish in the Atlantic this season as I don't seem to see it here in the prediction thread.

That would require staying on topic. Impossible for some.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Sure.....let's go with that as it it completely ignores the point that was being made about the 3 parts of the 2019-20 season and how once they got "comfortable" with Keefe, they went right back to .5oo(ish) hockey.

What's your prediction as to how they will finish in the Atlantic this season as I don't seem to see it here in the prediction thread.

Why should we cut that season into three parts and talk about how they finished but then ignore this past season where they were a top level regular season team? I really don't buy that the North is as mediocore as some would say.

West had LA, SJ, ANA, ARIZ

Central had CHI, DET, CBJ

East had NJ, BUF

You can make the argument the North isn't the strongest division - but I don't think they were the weakest either. The Central and West divisions were both pretty bad

 

[ACC1224]

Seems to be pretty much a consensus the top 4 teams are the Leafs, Bolts, B's and Panthers in some order with Montreal, Sens 5/6.

Coaching and goaltending will more than likely determine the final outcome.
Anyone want to have a go at ranking those 6 coaches or goalies?

 

[killer1980]

1. Tampa
2. Boston
3. Florida
4. Ottawa
5. Montreal
6. Toronto*
7. Detroit
8. Buffalo

*Matthews plays less than half the season due to injury

 

[Racer88]

Seems to be pretty much a consensus the top 4 teams are the Leafs, Bolts, B's and Panthers in some order with Montreal, Sens 5/6.

Coaching and goaltending will more than likely determine the final outcome.
Anyone want to have a go at ranking those 6 coaches or goalies?

Ohhhhhh that will bring about some spirited debate……..ima gonna put some extra butter on my popcorn for this one.
Lol

 

[egd27]

You're the one that decided to split the season into 3 parts for no reason (even though the entire Keefe period was being discussed), and then completely dismiss his amazing record with the team when it was remotely healthy - instead focusing exclusively on the period of relative struggles that just so happened to directly align with our team being completely decimated to injury and our starting goalie imploding. Then, instead of acknowledging the obvious reasons for the record during that period, you arbitrarily conclude that it was somehow about "getting comfortable with Keefe", which is supported by absolutely nothing.

No reason? Lol

Part 1 - 23 games under Babcock
Part 2 - First 24 under "brand new" coach Keefe
Part 3 - Final 23 games under "more familiar" Keefe

Seems pretty simple.

 

[ACC1224]

Ohhhhhh that will bring about some spirited debate……..ima gonna put some extra butter on my popcorn for this one.
Lol

Someone has to step up and answer first.
I'll stab at coaches.

1. Tampa
2. Florida
3. Boston
4. Montreal
5. Toronto
6. Ottawa

 

[Racer88]

Coach rating
Tampa
Montreal
Boston
Florida
Leafs
Ottawa

 

[zeke]

Seems to be pretty much a consensus the top 4 teams are the Leafs, Bolts, B's and Panthers in some order with Montreal, Sens 5/6.

Coaching and goaltending will more than likely determine the final outcome.
Anyone want to have a go at ranking those 6 coaches or goalies?

Last 3yrs Goalies

TBL: Vasilevsky (27) 147gms, .922 (52gms, .927) --- Elliott (36) 87gms, .898 (3gms, .911)
TOR: Campbell (29) 79gms, .918 (7gms, .934) ----- Mrazek (29) 92gms, .911 (18gms, .902)
BOS: Rask (34) 111gms, .919 (39gms, .927) -------- Ullmark (28) 91gms, .911 (---)
FLA: Bobrovsky (33) 143gms, .907 (17gms, .909) -- Knight (20) 4gms, .919 (2gms, .933)

Coaches are trickier. Let's stick with last 3yrs, but only for current team (this only effects Q).

TBL: Cooper 208gms, 116pt pace (37-17 plyff), 53.5xgf% 5v5, 53.6xgf% All
BOS: Cassidy 208gms, 110pt pace (26-19 plyff), 53.1xgf% 5v5, 53.2xgf% All
TOR: Keefe 103gms, 105pt pace (5-7 plyff), 54.7xgf% 5v5, 55.6xgf% All
FLA: Quennevill3 125gms, 103pt pace (3-7 plyff), 51.1xgf% 5v5, 51.8xgf% All

 

[Dekes For Days]

No reason? Lol

Part 1 - 23 games under Babcock
Part 2 - First 24 under "brand new" coach Keefe
Part 3 - Final 23 games under "more familiar" Keefe

Yes, no reason, because "brand new" and "more familiar" are completely meaningless descriptors that have no impact on record. Keefe was even more familiar this season, and improved to a 113 point pace. What you're doing is separating "relatively average health and goaltending" and "completely decimated by injury, starting goalie imploded", and misrepresenting it as a result of something else, based on nothing.

 

[ACC1224]

No reason? Lol

Part 1 - 23 games under Babcock
Part 2 - First 24 under "brand new" coach Keefe
Part 3 - Final 23 games under "more familiar" Keefe

Seems pretty simple.

Seems reasonable.
I'm guessing the results are what make it seem unreasonable.

It doesn't really have anything to do with predicting the division outcome though. Unless of course, it's being used as a deflection from having to actually have an opinion.

 

[Racer88]

No reason? Lol

Part 1 - 23 games under Babcock
Part 2 - First 24 under "brand new" coach Keefe
Part 3 - Final 23 games under "more familiar" Keefe

Seems pretty simple.

I think I see your problem…….it doesn’t have enough GFX’s…..std’s……bfi’s and xyz’s attached to it it so it must be wrong

 

[zeke]

Last 3yrs Goalies

TBL: Vasilevsky (27) 147gms, .922 (52gms, .927) --- Elliott (36) 87gms, .898 (3gms, .911)
TOR: Campbell (29) 79gms, .918 (7gms, .934) ----- Mrazek (29) 92gms, .911 (18gms, .902)
BOS: Rask (34) 111gms, .919 (39gms, .927) -------- Ullmark (28) 91gms, .911 (---)
FLA: Bobrovsky (33) 143gms, .907 (17gms, .909) -- Knight (20) 4gms, .919 (2gms, .933)

Coaches are trickier. Let's stick with last 3yrs, but only for current team.

TBL: Cooper 208gms, 116pt pace (37-17 plyff), 53.5xgf% 5v5, 53.6xgf% All
BOS: Cassidy 208gms, 110pt pace (26-19 plyff), 53.1xgf% 5v5, 53.2xgf% All
TOR: Keefe 103gms, 105pt pace (5-7 plyff), 54.7xgf% 5v5, 55.6xgf% All
FLA: Quennevilly 125gms, 103pt pace (3-7 plyff), 51.1xgf% 5v5, 51.8xgf% All

shoot just realized you wanted to include MTL and OTT too...

TBL: Vasilevsky (27) 147gms, .922 (52gms, .927) --- Elliott (36) 87gms, .898 (3gms, .911)
TOR: Campbell (29) 79gms, .918 (7gms, .934) ----- Mrazek (29) 92gms, .911 (18gms, .902)
BOS: Rask (34) 111gms, .919 (39gms, .927) -------- Ullmark (28) 91gms, .911 (---)
MTL: Price (34) 149gms, .912 (32gms, .928) ------- Allen (31) 99gms, .911 (6gms, .930)
FLA: Bobrovsky (33) 143gms, .907 (17gms, .909) -- Knight (20) 4gms, .919 (2gms, .933)
OTT: Murray (27) 115gms, .907 (7gms, .909) ------ Forsberg (29) 46gms, .907 (---)

TBL: Cooper 208gms, 116pt pace (37-17 plyff), 53.5xgf% 5v5, 53.6xgf% All
BOS: Cassidy 208gms, 110pt pace (26-19 plyff), 53.1xgf% 5v5, 53.2xgf% All
TOR: Keefe 103gms, 105pt pace (5-7 plyff), 54.7xgf% 5v5, 55.6xgf% All
FLA: Quennevilly 125gms, 103pt pace (3-7 plyff), 51.1xgf% 5v5, 51.8xgf% All
MTL: Ducharme 38gms, 80pt pace (13-9 plyff), 50.7xgf% 5v5, 49.1xgf% All
OTT Smith 127gms, 73pt pace (--- plyff), 48.4xgf% 5v5, 48.4xgf% All