Athletic: Dubas Job on the Line this Season (contract expiring after this season)

[34]

The way this likely goes down….Dubas will be let go and Matthews will be traded after this season after failed contract extension talks.

This team is already at the rebuilding stage, but in denial.

 

[Jojalu]

The pivotal mistake Kyle made was putting all of his faith in the core group (Tavares, Marner, AM, Rielly, Nylander). All 5 have dissapointed, although overall, I am pretty happy still with Nylander.

He said he would ride or die with them, and they just aren't the players he thought they were.


Why can't it be both ways?

Dubas failed to structure the team properly, but the core also let him down.

If the core is the issue my point was it wasn't a great scenario to walk into.

Him being loyal to a fault would be his biggest problem.

After you set a franchise record for wins and points and still get bounced it was the right time to pull the trigger on a bigger move.

I don't even think that Kerfoot or Holl would have been big enough but it would have helped.

I still believe Matthews is a keeper and you can build a winner around him but they for sure need to change something drastically.

 

[daveleaf]

Shanahan is the one that needs to be axed here. All these threads and talks of Keefe and dubas, but the real architect that has overseen everything and signed off on it is Brendan Shanahan. At what point does MLSE step in and terminate him. Enough!

I don't agree with this. Shanny knows what it takes to win. Remember, Shanny was probably told to ice a team that was exciting and skilled and would sell tickets. He gave Dubas the job and stuck with him. I believe he has the right to fix the mistake and fire Dubas. I think he hires Trotz and fires Dubas and Keefe together and hires a senior assistant to get him through the year. Team is flawed and has nothing to do with Tavares. No goaltending and for the most part not much on D. Dubas has gaffed on all the assets and has not got much in return. Dubas really has to go now. I give this to the 10-12 game mark. Couple more losses and its done.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

It kind of cracks me up that we're tied with Ottawa somehow. Like we're in here, preparing ourselves for a total teardown, firings, etc. Ottawa fans are hyped like crazy for their season. We're tied lol. I haven't heard a single negative peep about Ottawa.

 

[DarkKnight]

I love how some people here just disappear when the heat is on after talking nonsense all the time too.

 

[CDN24]

I don't know how anybody could argue anything other than a resounding yes. Our team has improved in every possible way except for goaltending.

If we compare 2017-2018 to our results last year...

105 points -> 115 points
42 ROW -> 51 ROW
51.20 xGF% -> 55.92 xGF%
54.00 GF% -> 55.32 GF%

3.25 GF/60 -> 3.77 GF/60
3.09 xGF/60 -> 3.34 xGF/60

33.39 SA/60 -> 30.34 SA/60
2.95 xGA/60 -> 2.64 xGA/60

+16.1 GSAx -> -21.0 GSAx

And this despite an unexpected flat cap that has massively complicated competitive team building, and that has likely screwed us over more than any other team.
And despite no longer having multiple elite players still on their ELCs.

And you cannot just attribute this to Matthews/Marner/Nylander improvements either.
The 2021-2022 group of forwards beyond Matthews/Marner/Nylander produced 40 more points than the 2017-2018 group of forwards in the same number of games. The 2021-2022 group was also better defensively and cost 7.25m less. Our defense is also massively improved.

Many of the things that propped us up in 2017-2018 were not sustainable or things that Dubas would get help from moving forward either, at least for very long.
We had abnormal success in the shootout.
We had depth that was departing in UFA and getting signed to big contracts (JVR, Bozak, etc.).
We had Andersen putting up a solid performance. The same goalie that would fall off a cliff a year later.
We had a 35+ year old journeyman backup putting up a vezina-quality career performance.
We had a 39 year old Marleau, who would soon become a significant liability.
We had a declining 37 year old Hainsey.
We had Gardiner, who would soon run into massive back problems and become a shell of his former self.

Our prospect pool had also been sucked dry to fill the NHL's team's depth, and it was left unreplenished. Our prospect pool now is in a much better state.

Even in the playoffs, while the outcome may have unfortunately been the same, our performance was much better.

In the 2017-2018 playoffs, we played Boston and put up a 44.79 xGF% and 41.67 GF%.
In the 2021-2022 playoffs, we played Tampa and put up a 50.75 xGF% and 51.06 GF%%

Is the goaltending concerning? Sure. But with how volatile goaltending is, I'm not ready to fire a GM just because of that, especially when they're making moves to try and fix it.
People seem to think fixing goaltending is easier than it is. Andersen fell off a cliff, we didn't have any significant goaltending prospects, and it's not like surefire goalies have been available through UFA or trade.

It's early, but we currently have the 4th best goalie in the league this year so far, which should make people feel a little better.

Center was not remotely close to our biggest strength. Our entire organizational depth at center was essentially Matthews-Kadri-Gauthier, and that's it. That's not strong. There was an opportunity to add an elite player for just money at a reasonable UFA cost, and we took it, as any GM would have if they could - especially with significant cap increases upcoming.

I'm not sure what move you think would have instantly "shored up our D", but we still had 5 defensemen under contract for the next season, and Dubas did still address defense that year when he added Muzzin in-season. And he continued to address defense, and it improved from 25th in 2017-2018, to 23rd in 2018-2019, to 16th in 2019-2020, to 6th in 2020-2021, to 3rd last year.

Our young stars got the contracts they did because they were among the best young players seen in the entire cap era, not because of Tavares. UFA contracts have nothing to do with post-ELC contracts.
Marleau did not have to be traded because of Tavares. Marleau had to be traded, just as Lou knew he would be when he signed him, because he was a massive drain and liability for our team through a competitive phase. If not Tavares, that space still had to be utilized.
Tavares did not devalue Kadri. Kadri devalued Kadri, when he had a bad season and then topped it off with a 2nd consecutive playoff suspension. Even without all that, fans here overvalue what a ~50-55 point forward with discipline issues is worth.

You opened your post talking about how the overall change in the team is more important than the individual moves along the way, so I'm not really sure how we veered off into a tirade against the Tavares signing based on a whole bunch of assumptions, hindsight, and what-if scenarios anyway.

After watching the 4 games of this road trip, do you still think this team is better than the one Dubas inherited?

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Why didn't Keefe/Dubas/Shanny realize that a slow start would trigger an angry fanbase?! The sputtering is the equivalent of poking a bear.

 

[34]

I don't agree with this. Shanny knows what it takes to win. Remember, Shanny was probably told to ice a team that was exciting and skilled and would sell tickets. He gave Dubas the job and stuck with him. I believe he has the right to fix the mistake and fire Dubas. I think he hires Trotz and fires Dubas and Keefe together and hires a senior assistant to get him through the year. Team is flawed and has nothing to do with Tavares. No goaltending and for the most part not much on D. Dubas has gaffed on all the assets and has not got much in return. Dubas really has to go now. I give this to the 10-12 game mark. Couple more losses and its done.

i can agree with this, but why is Shanahan signing off on Dubas’s Moves? At this point, Toronto is going to lose Matthews.

Is there an immediate solution right now?

 

[Ianturnedbull]

I don't agree with this. Shanny knows what it takes to win. Remember, Shanny was probably told to ice a team that was exciting and skilled and would sell tickets. He gave Dubas the job and stuck with him. I believe he has the right to fix the mistake and fire Dubas. I think he hires Trotz and fires Dubas and Keefe together and hires a senior assistant to get him through the year. Team is flawed and has nothing to do with Tavares. No goaltending and for the most part not much on D. Dubas has gaffed on all the assets and has not got much in return. Dubas really has to go now. I give this to the 10-12 game mark. Couple more losses and its done.

Clearly Shanny doesn't know how to build a winner. His vision was to tear it down and develop a more sustainable winning culture. It started with "scorched earth" and it seems to be ending with "respect in the handshake line". He's had a long time to see his vision through, but in no way does he get a decade to have TOR finally win a playoff round.

 

[AllHeartNoSkill]

I don't agree with this. Shanny knows what it takes to win. Remember, Shanny was probably told to ice a team that was exciting and skilled and would sell tickets. He gave Dubas the job and stuck with him. I believe he has the right to fix the mistake and fire Dubas. I think he hires Trotz and fires Dubas and Keefe together and hires a senior assistant to get him through the year. Team is flawed and has nothing to do with Tavares. No goaltending and for the most part not much on D. Dubas has gaffed on all the assets and has not got much in return. Dubas really has to go now. I give this to the 10-12 game mark. Couple more losses and its done.

I was inclined to agree with you on this. But I think this IS what Shanahan wanted for the team. Another poster put this article up yesterday (and to be clear I’m taking it at face value, I have no idea of the site’s reputation and whether quote is accurate).

Leafs President Brendan Shanahan admits to steering the Leafs down a more skilled road than a gritty one

 

[ToneDog]

I love how some people here just disappear when the heat is on after talking nonsense all the time too.

As they should, feasting on crow with their tails tucked between their legs. Unfortunately for a few it is not in their DNA, or are trolls or shills.

 

[sparxx87]

To be fair Masai took a huge gamble on the Derozan for Leonard trade and he was lucky that it panned out. It could've just as easily not worked or at least not gotten the Raps over the hump and won them a championship and then they lose Leonard for nothing with no championship to show for. And this doesn't include the fact that Durant wasn't even playing much in the finals because of injury otherwise things could've turned out quite differently.

The point is sometimes gambles work out and sometimes they don't. They worked out well for Masai that one year and now the Raps are back to being non-championship contenders for probably the forseeable future unless our young guys become stars and our team plays out of their minds. Dubas also took a gamble and so far it hasn't worked out for him, but that's the risk you take in building a team.

Masai also fired the reigning coach of the year because he didn't meet his standards. Aside from the Maple Leafs, most organizations demand success and won't accept less. Raptors had been building a winning culture for years prior. They already has a conference finals appearance but kept running into an all time great player in LeBron James at the peak of his powers. The team was deep at every position, one of the best defensive groups of the decade, toughness, versatility, intangibles, etc etc The Raptors had the infrastructure, they were missing the top end talent. Maple Leafs have the top end talent but no infrastructure. Any qualified individual should be able to build the infrastructure while the top end talent is the challenge. Dubas was gifted the 20 year old future Hart winner, two elite wingers under the age of 22, then a prime age #1 D and #1 G and still made an absolute mess. It was handed to him on a silver platter and he screwed up almost everything from the day he was hired.

Bad enough so many people are blind and delusional about the Maple Leafs, now you're dragging the Raptors in to call them lucky in attempt to diminish their success? All because the Leafs are an embarrassment?

Raptors are 3rd or 4th most successful team of the decade. Most attribute that to having one of the best front offices in the league.

Maple Leafs are a clown show yet some people can't grasp that it starts at the top with the least qualified GM in the game... quite possibly ever.

 

[daveleaf]

i can agree with this, but why is Shanahan signing off on Dubas’s Moves? At this point, Toronto is going to lose Matthews.

Is there an immediate solution right now?

I believe as a senior you have to give the people under you the authority to make moves. That being said, you can't run a team worrying about one individual player and what they will do. That is the problem that have been doing for years. This has to be run as a TEAM, TEAM first!

Clearly Shanny doesn't know how to build a winner. His vision was to tear it down and develop a more sustainable winning culture. It started with "scorched earth" and it seems to be ending with "respect in the handshake line". He's had a long time to see his vision through, but in no way does he get a decade to have TOR finally win a playoff round.

Shanny knows very well. He was part of it. Highly skilled team with lots of grit. He knows. This is Kyles vision,

I was inclined to agree with you on this. But I think this IS what Shanahan wanted for the team. Another poster put this article up yesterday (and to be clear I’m taking it at face value, I have no idea of the site’s reputation and whether quote is accurate).

Leafs President Brendan Shanahan admits to steering the Leafs down a more skilled road than a gritty one

Don't know but he should know better.

 

[sparxx87]

It can't be both ways.

If the core is indeed the problem then it wasn't a very good scenario to walk into.

If the core is not the issue then all the responsibility can fall onto his shoulders for not being able to surround them with the right players.

It absolutely can. Dubas built a heartless team but they look even worse than they should right now because Marner and Matthews have struggled, and it doesn't appear the coach is pressing the right buttons.

Theres a multtude of issues for it to be this ugly. They just blew 3-1 in the 3rd against a terrible team where most would have expected some urgency.

Theres a lot wrong here.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I love how some people here just disappear when the heat is on after talking nonsense all the time too.

ELITE!!!!!

 

[Apex Predator]

It can't be both ways.

If the core is indeed the problem then it wasn't a very good scenario to walk into.

If the core is not the issue then all the responsibility can fall onto his shoulders for not being able to surround them with the right players.

You can argue the way Dubas handled the core is why they are this way.

As they should, feasting on crow with their tails tucked between their legs. Unfortunately for a few it is not in their DNA, or are trolls or shills.

They’ll be back after a win streak to tell us we over reacted, show us some charts and expected goals.

 

[ToneDog]

It absolutely can. Dubas built a heartless team but they look even worse than they should right now because Marner and Matthews have struggled, and it doesn't appear the coach is pressing the right buttons.

Theres a multtude of issues for it to be this ugly. They just blew 3-1 in the 3rd against a terrible team where most would have expected some urgency.

Theres a lot wrong here.

Saturday night after losing to LA, Morgs said the next game will show the character of the team. Ooops.

 

[ShaneFalco]

They'll obviously turn it around and start winning. But the issues still remain - a pond hockey team that can't get it done when it matters.

 

[sparxx87]

You can argue the way Dubas handled the core is why they are this way.


They’ll be back after a win streak to tell us we over reacted, show us some charts and expected goals.

Hand out big contracts to players who've never won anything, then fire the coach because they quit on him less than 20 games in to these extensions.

Gee, what could possibly go wrong?

 

[Jojalu]

You can argue the way Dubas handled the core is why they are this way.


They’ll be back after a win streak to tell us we over reacted, show us some charts and expected goals.

I suppose you could.

This start feels so much worse this year. Even though it pretty much was the same last year.

 

[Stamkos4life]

It can't be both ways.

If the core is indeed the problem then it wasn't a very good scenario to walk into.

If the core is not the issue then all the responsibility can fall onto his shoulders for not being able to surround them with the right players.

Most gms dream of having a matthews or marner level talent. Some barely have a Nylander level. Dubas could've traded any of them during the last 4 years or he could've signed them for less, which would've given us more room to add.

It's dubas' job to either trade them for the correct prices, or to keep them.

Dubas has chosen to keep them at all costs and that has not worked out at all.

Any gm would kill for the opportunity. Just because dubas has not had success does not mean the situation wasn't ideal. It just means dubas it not a good gm.

 

[Trapper]

They'll obviously turn it around and start winning. But the issues still remain - a pond hockey team that can't get it done when it matters.

Why did the Leafs lose last night?
Because for the first time this year, it was a pressure game. Like a game 7. Bad showings, bad road trip put the pressure on them. And they show what they are.

Now they will return home, it’s a long season so the above is done for now. But the pressure will return, it always does in pro sports and they continue to show the same thing under those pressure moments. Hence the playoff record. Hanging new guys out to dry, bad judgment not starting on time, work ethic, etc. we are what we are now.

 

[Stephen]

It kind of cracks me up that we're tied with Ottawa somehow. Like we're in here, preparing ourselves for a total teardown, firings, etc. Ottawa fans are hyped like crazy for their season. We're tied lol. I haven't heard a single negative peep about Ottawa.

Direction of travel perhaps.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Direction of travel perhaps.

That's the thing, though - Sens invested a done of draft capital and cap room this year, and they are on pace to finish only a few spots ahead of last year. They were supposed to give the Atlantic a run for it's money this year.

Both teams are probably better than they've shown, just interesting to see the different standards right now.

 

[GrizzLeaf]

Full disclose. I'm a proponent of Keefe. He's the winningest coach in Leafs history and like him or not, he has done well.

But...

Coaches have an expiration date. I think Keefe has reached his. I said it last week that the coach was more likely to be canned than the GM. It's even mote likely now.

Keefe has gotten into 2 public spats with Marner now. In 10 games. That relationship could sour if this continues. But more importantly, Keefe failled when he benched Marner last night. It should have lasted the rest of the game, instead it wad what? One shift? Two?

I'm also not a fan of calling out lower tier players publicly when the stars aren't. Yes, everyone is failing. But your team lives and dies by it's stars.

The minor tinkering with the line-up is useless. Split up Marner and Matthews already. Quit f***ing around.

I expext to see him fired before the week's out. If not Dubas could end up out with him when Shanny realizes he's gonna do down along with both of them.