ATD Chat Thread XVI

[tinyzombies]

That's the biggest knock against McDavid right now. His faceoff % is still far to low for an elite C IMO. Even improving this year he's still only at 46.8% and his career number is 43.2%.

I know in some of the games I've watched over the past few years he's not always taking draws because he's simply not that good at them. Seems like Drai took a lot of them when they skated together.

But he seems like hard working kid and you can see a nice uptick this year so I'd wager he'll get to the respectable side of the coin sooner than later.



BTW, the Pens-Caps played a hellova game last night. Consider:

Ovechkin hit 1200 points
Malkin hit 1000 points
Crosby potted a pair of goals to get him to 90 points in 67 this year.

And I really want to see Wilson and Gudbranson square up. That's a heavy weight billing if there ever was one in today's game. The funny thing about Gudbranson is he finally comes to a halfway decent team and looks like a solid bottom pairing guy when he's not asked to over extend his abilities. He's actually been playing 2nd pairing minutes due to injuries and in 7 games is a +5. Been really solid stay at home man so far. Playing a quiet (physical though), simple game.

McDavid is actually 54% in the dzone - 197 draws:
Edmonton Oilers- Face-off stats - 2018 - defensive zone - Puckbase

 

[ImporterExporter]

McDavid is actually 54% in the dzone - 197 draws:
Edmonton Oilers- Face-off stats - 2018 - defensive zone - Puckbase

I saw that. But hockey is played across 3 zones and his numbers there are quite low. Is kind of strange to see such a big gap.

They should probably never give him offensive zone time moving forward though.

 

[tinyzombies]

I saw that. But hockey is played across 3 zones and his numbers there are quite low. Is kind of strange to see such a big gap.

They should probably never give him offensive zone time moving forward though.

Yes, he's terrible down there, keep him buried in dzone starts.

 

[ImporterExporter]

With the league 70 games in not a ton will change so here are my Post Season AS teams for 18-19:

1st Team:

LW - Brad Marchand
-He's 19 points ahead of the next closest Bruin. He produces high end offensive totals, and unlike most other high scoring wingers is actually a plus defensive player and ace on the PK. Somebody will argue Gaudreau or Ovechkin but they are 1 way wingers and haven't done anything extraordinary that warrants this spot IMO.

C - Sidney Crosby
-He's a ridiculous 20 points ahead of the next 2 Penguins scorers. He's carried Pittsburgh all year with elite offense and great defensive play. Between Malkin/Kessel shitting the bed for most of the year and numerous injuries otherwise the Pens wouldn't be near a playoff team without 87. 90 in 67 games heading towards 32 years of age. Kid still has it.

RW - Nikita Kucherov
- Do I really need to explain this?

LD - Mark Giordano
-From what little I have seen of Calgary this year he looks the part. And the #'s/advanced metrics back this up as well. Logs a lot of time overall, especially on the special teams units. Cool to see another old man up here.

RD - Brent Burns
-He's been the best player for the Sharks this year. Better than a PPG, he's solid enough in his own end, plays heavy PP minutes and a decent amount on the PK. Crazy beard game.


PS: I wonder how long it's been since 4 players 30 years of age (or older) wound up making the 1st AS team?


2nd Team:

LW - Johnny Gaudreau
-Top scorer at LW on a 1st place team. Maybe Ovechkin gets here down the stretch but Johnny Hockey is to far out in front of 8 for me to flip them at this point. Neither really provides defensive value and I don't give goals more value than they deserve like others do. A point is a point. And nobody has more at LW than JG.

C - Conner McDavid
-Yeah, not bound for the playoffs most likely but he's still going to breeze past 100 points on a shit roster and probably be a + player. Sad what asshat management can do to "bury" a superstar. The clock is already ticking on Edmonton to fix the broken system.

RW - Patrick Kane
-You can more or less mirror what I said about McDavid here.

LD - Throw a Dart. Honestly nobody clearly stands out IMO. Letang would have been a pick had he not gotten hurt recently. He's been very strong this year. Might still lean to him if he comes back in the next few and can hit 70 games played. Rielly has a lot of points but he doesn't play #1 minutes and it's hard to look past that. From what I've seen I've been impressed. He's a smart hockey player. May be to conservative on him. Carlson will get a lot of votes.

RD - See above.

 

[VanIslander]

With the league 70 games in not a ton will change so here are my Post Season AS teams for 18-19:

1st Team:

LW - Brad Marchand
-He's 19 points ahead of the next closest Bruin. He produces high end offensive totals, and unlike most other high scoring wingers is actually a plus defensive player and ace on the PK. Somebody will argue Gaudreau or Ovechkin but they are 1 way wingers and haven't done anything extraordinary that warrants this spot IMO.

C - Sidney Crosby
-He's a ridiculous 20 points ahead of the next 2 Penguins scorers. He's carried Pittsburgh all year with elite offense and great defensive play. Between Malkin/Kessel ****ting the bed for most of the year and numerous injuries otherwise the Pens wouldn't be near a playoff team without 87. 90 in 67 games heading towards 32 years of age. Kid still has it.

RW - Nikita Kucherov
- Do I really need to explain this?

LD - Mark Giordano
-From what little I have seen of Calgary this year he looks the part. And the #'s/advanced metrics back this up as well. Logs a lot of time overall, especially on the special teams units. Cool to see another old man up here.

RD - Brent Burns
-He's been the best player for the Sharks this year. Better than a PPG, he's solid enough in his own end, plays heavy PP minutes and a decent amount on the PK. Crazy beard game.


PS: I wonder how long it's been since 4 players 30 years of age (or older) wound up making the 1st AS team?


2nd Team:

LW - Johnny Gaudreau
-Top scorer at LW on a 1st place team. Maybe Ovechkin gets here down the stretch but Johnny Hockey is to far out in front of 8 for me to flip them at this point. Neither really provides defensive value and I don't give goals more value than they deserve like others do. A point is a point. And nobody has more at LW than JG.

C - Conner McDavid
-Yeah, not bound for the playoffs most likely but he's still going to breeze past 100 points on a **** roster and probably be a + player. Sad what asshat management can do to "bury" a superstar. The clock is already ticking on Edmonton to fix the broken system.

RW - Patrick Kane
-You can more or less mirror what I said about McDavid here.

LD - Throw a Dart. Honestly nobody clearly stands out IMO. Letang would have been a pick had he not gotten hurt recently. He's been very strong this year. Might still lean to him if he comes back in the next few and can hit 70 games played. Rielly has a lot of points but he doesn't play #1 minutes and it's hard to look past that. From what I've seen I've been impressed. He's a smart hockey player. May be to conservative on him. Carlson will get a lot of votes.

RD - See above.

1st team and 2nd team... no Ovechkin?

Get out of here!

 

[ImporterExporter]

1st team and 2nd team... no Ovechkin?

Get out of here!

Explain why he should be on there.

He's not producing offense like the 2 names I have and he sure as hell doesn't have Marchand's defensive ability or impact.

Both the guys I have listed are top scorers on their team by a wider margin.

5v5 Ovechkin ranks 309th (of any player with 50 or more games played) it shot attempt%.

Ovechkin's +/- in terms of shots attempted Vs shots against while on the ice is lousy as well meaning his line gives up more shots than it generates.

He's a -54
998 shots for
1052 shots against

Gaudreau is a +168
1119 shots for
951 against

Marchand is a +146
1022 shots for
876 against

Unless you think leading the league in goals by a handful (while hammering more total shots on net than any other F) should just automatically warrant inclusion?

I wouldn't be that lazy in voting.

If 8 was a more balanced point producer or offered more defensive value to his team then my conclusion would probably be different.

 

[VanIslander]

Unless you think leading the league in goals by a handful.. should just automatically warrant inclusion?

That would be crazy!

We all know the Rocket Richard trophy doesn't even mean a guy's the 2nd best player at his own position.

Having taken 278 shots on net should count against a guy too, eh? (You shoot too much!) If you've shot 50+ more pucks on net than anyone else at your position then you better quickly discount that by using Crosby stats (the typical averages per game, per shot taken - because overall production is pffff).

And being the top scorer (points too) on a team that is leading its division is immaterial versus a couple of guys whose teams are not leading their division.

And 186 hits vs. 12 hits has no value whatsoever.

Scoring the most goals in the league (not just at one's position) and leading one's team in points (and easily in hits too) in a divisional title victory position is "lazy" to consider against vigorous elementary school mathematical 'divided by' operations that clearly put lesser producers on lesser situated teams ahead.

Ah-men (eh? man)

 

[ImporterExporter]

That would be crazy!

We all know the Rocket Richard trophy doesn't even mean a guy's the 2nd best player at his own position.

Having taken 278 shots on net should count against a guy too, eh? (You shoot too much!) If you've shot 50+ more pucks on net than anyone else at your position then you better quickly discount that by using Crosby stats (the typical averages per game, per shot taken - because overall production is pffff).

And being the top scorer (points too) on a team that is leading its division is immaterial versus a couple of guys whose teams are not leading their division.

And 186 hits vs. 12 hits has no value whatsoever.

Scoring the most goals in the league (not just at one's position) and leading one's team in points (and easily in hits too) in a divisional title victory position is "lazy" to consider against vigorous elementary school mathematical 'divided by' operations that clearly put lesser producers on lesser situated teams ahead.

Ah-men (eh? man)

I can see somebody went to the Sturminator school of using $10 words and deflecting away from the actual merits of ones points. The plethora (see what I did there) of grandiose words doesn't work on me bub.

Isn't it funny that hockey is the only sport where we don't investigate the impact of shooting far more than any other player in terms of goal scoring dominance.

I mean you can decry "elementary math" all you want (I earned a Master's Degree and have set foot in more than 40 countries btw) but I know this much:

If forward A shoots 300 times
Forward B shoots 250 times
Forward C shoots 200 times

Who is more likely to score the most goals?

Nobody EVER touches those "elementary" questions for obvious reasons.

Hits are one of the most overrated stats in hockey. So many times they offer little value and take a player out of position to make. I'm not impressed by the stat. Never have been, never will be. Especially in a league that has moved past the neanderthal past where big, physical and slow (not that Ovechkin is slow mind you) is held to some mythical standard.

Ovechkin is leading the league in goals by 4. Not exactly a dominant gap. Which leads me to my next point (hah, pun intended)

What is the value of a goal?
I'll save you the trouble. It's 1. It's one point. Same as an assist. Not all goals are created equal and neither are assists. The overwhelming majority of goals scored cannot exist without an assist(s)/ other players doing something right to give the goal scorer the opportunity to put the puck in the back of the net. Giving extra value to goals scored over points is mathematically inept.

Let's talk efficiency:

Total Shots Attempted this year (That includes on net, missed, blocked, etc)

Ovechkin - 544 = 46 goals
Draisaitl - 333 = 42 goals
Kane - 507 = 41 goals

-Is Ovechkin really the best goal scorer this year? Sure. He has the most. Is he the most efficient? Not even close. He literally has launched 200+ more shots at the net than Draisaitl who has somehow converted at a much higher rate.

This is the same theme every year. Yes, Ovechkin is the best goal scorer in the game because he generally ends up with the most goals but he is also shooting the puck a lot more than most others who are behind him. And often we're talking massive gaps. Bobby Hull fit into the same category if we're talking players of old. Obviously doesn't matter to you but it may to people who want to engage in an honest discussion.

You honestly believe Ovechkin is more deserving than Marchand, a guy who has outscored a top 20 player all time, plays sound defense, is a high end PK'er in the league today and on a superior team?

Different strokes.

 

[VanIslander]

Why the heck do coaches say SHOOT MORE! and HIT MORE!

Maybe generating more scoring chances and physically checking more players has a value you can not totally dismiss.

Do you honestly believe Gaudreau is a better player overall than Ovechkin this season?

Remember: I am simply responding to your claim that Ovechkin isn't even a 2nd team all-star left winger this season. That was the claim you made that I am objecting to. Full stop.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Why the heck do coaches say SHOOT MORE! and HIT MORE!

Maybe generating more scoring chances and physically checking more players has a value you can not totally dismiss.

Do you honestly believe Gaudreau is a better player overall than Ovechkin this season?

Remember: I am simply responding to your claim that Ovechkin isn't even a 2nd team all-star left winger this season. That was the claim you made that I am objecting to. Full stop.

Shooting more is a nice way of ignoring the difference between any random shot and high quality chances. Just because you shoot more doesn't mean you're going to win a hockey game. Hockey coaches at the pro level aren't just saying what you did. Certainly not in such a simplistic manner. Pro hockey is waaaaaaay more involved and nuanced for that elementary logic.

You want to know why Ovechkin has so many missed and blocked shots? Because he takes an inordinate amount of low IQ/low chance attempts. Shots that are 5 feet wide of the net. Shot into 3 players. That's not bias. That's not me "being a hater" that's just simply put, watching games and looking at the overall math. And when somebody has dozens (or even hundreds) more shot attempts per year which = thousands more since 2005-06, one can understand why his chances of winning Rocket Richard's are greater than the rest of the field.

Look, the dude is, IMO the 2nd greatest goal scorer ever. Will surely be #1 when he hangs them up. Saying that clearly shows I'm not some main board mouth breather who can't separate my dislike (because of the rivalry) for the player and what he has actually accomplished (which is a lot). BUT, there IS a great deal of context connected with the greatest goal scorer ever label.

I mean if Leon Draisaitl shot even just 100 more times this year (he'd still be 100 short of Ovi) are you telling me he wouldn't have at least 4 more goals to match Ovi's 46? And what would that hurt the Oilers? They suck anyway.

As for Gaudreau, the guy has produced a good bit more offensive than Ovechkin this year, on a team that is superior in the standings. And given that I don't elevate goals above assists (based on reality and NHL scoring) I don't see how one concludes Ovechkin is more deserving. He is one of the most heavily slanted (towards goal scoring) point produces in NHL history. He doesn't offer defensive value to the equation. Neither does Gaudreau, but JG is the top offensive dog in Calgary and the gap is bigger there to the #2 guy than it is in Washington with Ovi and Backstrom.

 

[VanIslander]

Superior in the standings?

You baldly compare wins of teams in different conferences?

The more significant fact: OV is the top scorer of a team winning its division whereas Gaudreau's team is 2nd in its division.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Kucherov just answered any questions about whether he was going to wilt with pressure from McDavid.

 

[The Macho King]

Kucherov just answered any questions about whether he was going to wilt with pressure from McDavid.

I dont think I've ever seen him celebrate so much after a goal as he did tonight. Man hes so fun to watch.

 

[seventieslord]

Come on, IE, you know stats don't work on VI... he hates them. Unless they're as simplistic as possible and support what he already thinks.

ergo, "Ovechkin has the most goals in the NHL" is a very, very, very important statistic to him.

I will say this, however, after reading your whole exchange - getting shots to the net is a skill. It has a direct relationship to pucks going into the net. i.e. goals. If it was that easy, everyone would take as many shots as Ovechkin. There are definitely legitimate, significant criticisms of him, but I don't think getting a lot of shots is a tree you want to bark up.

I gotta say though, "why don't you have the 3rd highest scoring LW in the league on your all-star teams?" is a pretty funny question.

LD - Throw a Dart. Honestly nobody clearly stands out IMO. Letang would have been a pick had he not gotten hurt recently. He's been very strong this year. Might still lean to him if he comes back in the next few and can hit 70 games played. Rielly has a lot of points but he doesn't play #1 minutes and it's hard to look past that. From what I've seen I've been impressed. He's a smart hockey player. May be to conservative on him. Carlson will get a lot of votes.

RD - See above.

About Rielly - not that I'm necessarily advocating for him, but he does play #1 minutes. He has the most on his team and it's by a margin of over a minute and a half per game. This is the first time we could say that about him, as he practically split time with the rest of the top-4 the last two seasons. Babcock has been absolutely brutal at realizing he has some real thoroughbreds and that he needs to get them out on the ice more often. It was apparently a problem in Detroit, too. To be fair, I have been somewhat dismissive of Hedman's greatness in the past due to basically the same trend in Tampa Bay, and he's once again 38th in TOI (yet tops on his own team) - Rielly is 35th. So although TOI is one thing to take into consideration, don't be too hard on Rielly about it - or Hedman. The flipside is, if Rielly played even better, he would make it impossible for babcock to deploy him as anything but a stud #1 D-man - after all, he played Lidstrom for over 25 minutes a game until he was 38 - so I'm not saying to 100% dismiss his relatively low TOI, but take Babcock into consideration on that.

Superior in the standings?

You baldly compare wins of teams in different conferences?

The more significant fact: OV is the top scorer of a team winning its division whereas Gaudreau's team is 2nd in its division.

....yikes, man. This use of statistics by you is right on brand. Washington is ahead of the Islanders by two points and the Isles have a game in hand. Calgary is one point out of the division lead. In literally two days, IE could, using your own logic, thumb his nose at you and say Calgary is leading their division while Washington is but a 2nd place team. You wouldn't find that the least bit asinine? At all?

 

[The Macho King]

Come on, IE, you know stats don't work on VI... he hates them. Unless they're as simplistic as possible and support what he already thinks.

ergo, "Ovechkin has the most goals in the NHL" is a very, very, very important statistic to him.

I will say this, however, after reading your whole exchange - getting shots to the net is a skill. It has a direct relationship to pucks going into the net. i.e. goals. If it was that easy, everyone would take as many shots as Ovechkin. There are definitely legitimate, significant criticisms of him, but I don't think getting a lot of shots is a tree you want to bark up.

I gotta say though, "why don't you have the 3rd highest scoring LW in the league on your all-star teams?" is a pretty funny question.



About Rielly - not that I'm necessarily advocating for him, but he does play #1 minutes. He has the most on his team and it's by a margin of over a minute and a half per game. This is the first time we could say that about him, as he practically split time with the rest of the top-4 the last two seasons. Babcock has been absolutely brutal at realizing he has some real thoroughbreds and that he needs to get them out on the ice more often. It was apparently a problem in Detroit, too. To be fair, I have been somewhat dismissive of Hedman's greatness in the past due to basically the same trend in Tampa Bay, and he's once again 38th in TOI (yet tops on his own team) - Rielly is 35th. So although TOI is one thing to take into consideration, don't be too hard on Rielly about it - or Hedman. The flipside is, if Rielly played even better, he would make it impossible for babcock to deploy him as anything but a stud #1 D-man - after all, he played Lidstrom for over 25 minutes a game until he was 38 - so I'm not saying to 100% dismiss his relatively low TOI, but take Babcock into consideration on that.



....yikes, man. This use of statistics by you is right on brand. Washington is ahead of the Islanders by two points and the Isles have a game in hand. Calgary is one point out of the division lead. In literally two days, IE could, using your own logic, thumb his nose at you and say Calgary is leading their division while Washington is but a 2nd place team. You wouldn't find that the least bit asinine? At all?

Hedmans lower toi is all about the playoffs, and the fact the Lightning have 2 #1s.

 

[seventieslord]

Hedmans lower toi is all about the playoffs, and the fact the Lightning have 2 #1s.

Ok, but what about all the years before that?

 

[ImporterExporter]

Come on, IE, you know stats don't work on VI... he hates them. Unless they're as simplistic as possible and support what he already thinks.

ergo, "Ovechkin has the most goals in the NHL" is a very, very, very important statistic to him.

I will say this, however, after reading your whole exchange - getting shots to the net is a skill. It has a direct relationship to pucks going into the net. i.e. goals. If it was that easy, everyone would take as many shots as Ovechkin. There are definitely legitimate, significant criticisms of him, but I don't think getting a lot of shots is a tree you want to bark up.

I gotta say though, "why don't you have the 3rd highest scoring LW in the league on your all-star teams?" is a pretty funny question.



About Rielly - not that I'm necessarily advocating for him, but he does play #1 minutes. He has the most on his team and it's by a margin of over a minute and a half per game. This is the first time we could say that about him, as he practically split time with the rest of the top-4 the last two seasons. Babcock has been absolutely brutal at realizing he has some real thoroughbreds and that he needs to get them out on the ice more often. It was apparently a problem in Detroit, too. To be fair, I have been somewhat dismissive of Hedman's greatness in the past due to basically the same trend in Tampa Bay, and he's once again 38th in TOI (yet tops on his own team) - Rielly is 35th. So although TOI is one thing to take into consideration, don't be too hard on Rielly about it - or Hedman. The flipside is, if Rielly played even better, he would make it impossible for babcock to deploy him as anything but a stud #1 D-man - after all, he played Lidstrom for over 25 minutes a game until he was 38 - so I'm not saying to 100% dismiss his relatively low TOI, but take Babcock into consideration on that.



....yikes, man. This use of statistics by you is right on brand. Washington is ahead of the Islanders by two points and the Isles have a game in hand. Calgary is one point out of the division lead. In literally two days, IE could, using your own logic, thumb his nose at you and say Calgary is leading their division while Washington is but a 2nd place team. You wouldn't find that the least bit asinine? At all?

Yes, but that's not the point I'm trying to make. Plus Ovi misses the net almost as much as he hits it. 283 shots but 549 total attempts. That's 266 misses/blocks/iron, etc.

The point I'm trying to make is about efficiency in relation to goal scoring. Ovechkin is supposed to be give 1s Team AS status because he is currently the Rocket Richard winner? Great, that's a simple, raw number.

But the fact that he DOES shoot the puck far more than the competition also ENHANCES his chances of hitting the back of the net. So him being 4 up on Draisaitl but having attempted 200+ more total shots impacts the raw number in my eyes.

Nobody ever brings this up and I find it hilarious, but expected depending on who you talk to.

Shot attempts (or similar stats) are tracked closely in other sports. How many passes a QB throws matters. How many at bats a baseball player gets matters. If baseball player A hits 50 HR's in 500 at bats and player B hits 47 home runs in 400 AB's who is the better home run hitter? Maybe player B missed games. Maybe player B took many more walks. Either way player B, in my eyes, should be celebrated just as much as player A. One guy has the raw number, and the other guy has the per game rate. Are we really going to say player B wouldn't bang a few more HR's if he had another 100 AB's?

It's the same concept in this year's Rocket Richard race. Ovechkin is up by a whopping 4 on Drai. And Drai is close to Ovi despite literally taking 200+ less attempts. I guess some folks just don't care?

I mean at what point do we stop accepting the simple raw number as gospel?

As I've correctly pointed out. It's not like these robust shot attempts have help the Capitals in the grand scheme. Their offense, for a long time, has gone entirely through 8 (less than it used to mind you). Yes, they finally won a Cup but in 14 years they've still only been past round 2, once. Last year. How well is having someone blast shot after shot after shot working out? Works great for your Rocket Richard trophy case but otherwise?

 

[seventieslord]

How many passes a QB throws matters. How many at bats a baseball player gets matters. If baseball player A hits 50 HR's in 500 at bats and player B hits 47 home runs in 400 AB's who is the better home run hitter? Maybe player B missed games. Maybe player B took many more walks. Either way player B, in my eyes, should be celebrated just as much as player A. One guy has the raw number, and the other guy has the per game rate

This is not Apples to apples. The kinds of things you're quoting are more analogous to goals per unit of ice time as opposed to goals per shot taken.

your point about how much good it's done having your entire offense go through Ovechkin and having him just blast shot after shot, is well made. It's likely that if Ovechkin had made some adjustments to his game over the years and if the capitals had adjusted their strategy, then they would have had some more success than just getting out of the second round once in 13 years. but that doesn't change the fact that getting more shots on goal towards the net is a skill that he clearly possesses.

 

[VanIslander]

Production trumps efficiency in determining who PERFORMED better in a given season.

A 1st or at least 2nd team all star selection will accompany the Rocket Richard or Art Ross trophy winner because of what the player did.

"If" another player has taken more shots or played more games is counterfactual reasoning we here at HfBoards habitually engage in. And it has its place in determining relative talent level and value in projecting possibilities. But it is entirely beside the point when it comes to 1st or 2nd team all star voting.

I don't think a Rocket Richard trophy winner has ever failed to be at least the 2nd team all star player at his position, and I highly doubt it will happen this season.

Results matter.

(The whole idea of a trophy as an achievement seems artificial. Is the team that wins a series in Game 7 OT better? They go around heralded as the best. But results matter. The sport has a Rocket Richard trophy because scoring even just one more goal than all others is deemed an accomplishment worth honoring (just like the first 50 goal season ever by Maurice.)

 

[ImporterExporter]

So what if the Rocket Richard winner has 50 goals and 10 assists? Should he be an AS?

I mean at what point do we finally stop automatically assigning a postseason accolade for raw data in this sport?

It's amazing that the guy who has continually scored the most goals in the league, sometimes by fairly decent margins has 1 Art Ross, despite rarely missing games.

Maurice Richard's 50 in 50 is such an overrated number. He and Habs benefitted like no other team in history by having an essentially untouched roster while every other team in the league was gutted due to the war.

How many goals did Richard score the following year? He had 27 in 50. He never hit 50 again, even when the length of season went to 70 games.

This is why looking at raw data is so bleeping misleading and lazy.

 

[rmartin65]

I don't think a Rocket Richard trophy winner has ever failed to be at least the 2nd team all star player at his position, and I highly doubt it will happen this season.

Rick Nash in 03-04.

Jonathan Cheechoo in 05-06.

Steven Stamkos in 09-10.

Going back further (so not Rockets, but still goal-scoring leaders), Peter Bondra accomplished the feat in both 94-95 and 97-98. Keith Tkachuk in 96-97.

 

[seventieslord]

Rick Nash in 03-04.

Jonathan Cheechoo in 05-06.

Steven Stamkos in 09-10.

Going back further (so not Rockets, but still goal-scoring leaders), Peter Bondra accomplished the feat in both 94-95 and 97-98. Keith Tkachuk in 96-97.

I was about to do this myself. Thanks for starting.

Starting in 1931, Charlie Conacher. 1939, Roy Conacher. 1980, Blaine Stoughton. That is the complete list. So it has happened nine times in 87 seasons. We're due for it to happen again.

Points rankings of these players, in chronological order:

- 3rd (1st among RW)
- 10th (5th)
- 8th (2nd)
- 27th (10th)
- 11th (4th)
- 11th (5th)
- 41st (8th)
- 10th (3rd)
- 5th (4th)

OV is settling into 13th-18th in points and 3rd at his own position. If those guys above can miss the 2nd all-star team, so can he.

Points rankings of other goal leaders who did make the AST:

1st (30X)
2nd (26X) 17x 1st at position, 9x 2nd
3rd (5X) 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd
4th (12X) 7x 1st at position, 5x 2nd
5th (3x) 1st, 1st, 1st
6th (2X) 1st, 3rd
7th (3X) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
8th (3X) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
9th (1x) 3rd
---------------
11th (1x) 2nd (Alex Ovechkin 2018)
15th (2x) 4th, 4th (Reggie Leach 1976, Alex Ovechkin 2016)
16th (1x) 7th (Jarome Iginla 2004)
18th (1x) 8th (Danny Gare 1980)

The average points ranking of a player to lead the league in goals and make the AST is 3.3 (and 1.6 at their position). The average points ranking of a player to lead the league in goals and not make the AST is 14th (and 4.7 at their own position).

the list of players to lead the league in goals and finish outside of the top-10 in points (and still make the all-star team) is extremely short - Just 9 times in 87 years (4 times they failed to make the AST). The list of goals leaders to finish outside the top-15 in points is even shorter - just 4 times, and twice they failed to make the AST.

Based on history, OV has even odds to make the AST at this point. I can't see anyone thinking he has greater impact than Marchand, or that 13 of his goals are worth 21 Gaudreau assists.

 

[BenchBrawl]

A look at his competition:

05-06: Cheechoo (56), Jagr (54), Kovalchuk (52), Ovechkin (52)
06-07: Lecavalier (52), Heatley (50), Selanne (48), Ovechkin (46)
07-08: Ovechkin (65), Malkin (52), Iginla (50), Malkin (47)
08-09: Ovechkin (56), Carter (46), Parise (45), Kovalchuk (43)
09-10: Stamkos (51), Crosby (51), Ovechkin (50), Marleau (44)
10-11: Finished 20th, (Perry, Stamkos, Iginla, Kesler)
11-12: Stamkos (60), Malkin (50), Gaborik (41), Neal (40), Ovechkin (38)
12-13: Ovechkin (32), Stamkos (29), Tavares (28). Carter (26)
13-14: Ovechkin (51), Perry (43), Pavelski (41), Pacioretty (39)
14-15: Ovechkin (53), Stamkos (43), Nash (42), Tavares (38)
15-16: Ovechkin (50), Kane (46), Benn (41), Tarasenko (40)
16-17: Finished 15th, (Crosby, Matthews ,Kucherov, Tarasenko)
17-18: Ovechkin (49), Laine (44), W.Karlsson (43), Staal (42), Malkin (42)
18-19: Ovechkin (46), Draisaitl (42), Kane (41), Tavares (39)

 

[VanIslander]

I can't see anyone thinking .. that 13 of his goals are worth 21 Gaudreau assists.

(That seems overly simplistic and lazy, as IE would put it.)

There are a lot of consuderations, not just points.

189 hits vs. 22 hits is not insignificant.

OV shoots more, checks more and may captain his team to another divisional title.

Gaudreau's increased number of assists may not be impressive enough to appear as any more impactful than the different skillset of OV.

Moreover, the eye test may sway voters.

All the above are legitimate considerations that will see Ovechkin get all-star recognition over Gaudreau.

That said,... sadly (unfairly), hockey history shows us that often playoff success is rewarded by all-star game participation, Hart trophy voting and 1st & 2nd team all-star selections the following season. So, OV may be argued on these grounds not to deserve the 1st or 2nd team all star nod I expect him to get. But, as I said before, a trophy may be artificial but it is deemed a worthy achievement. It affects people's impressions of worth. Heck, look at the HoH project: trophy counters galore!

 

[Staniowski]

Rick Nash in 03-04.

Jonathan Cheechoo in 05-06.

Steven Stamkos in 09-10.

Going back further (so not Rockets, but still goal-scoring leaders), Peter Bondra accomplished the feat in both 94-95 and 97-98. Keith Tkachuk in 96-97.

Also, Alex Ovechkin, '17-'18.

And he almost certainly would've been 4th in the voting last season if Marchand didn't miss 14 games.