BenchBrawl
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He might even be looking at another Hart trophy if Pittsburgh make the playoffs by the skin of their teeth.
ATD Chat Thread XVI
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ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
The Pens would be in the running for Hughes this year if not for 87. Look at the plus minus difference between he and Malkin. This has been his most dominant season of his career. He's been steadily improving as a defensive difference maker and this year I feel more than comfortable with him entering the Selke convo.
Not quite to the point where I'd say he should win but I've been predicting a Yzerman like transition for a few years now. It's not all that surprising to me really.
Not quite to the point where I'd say he should win but I've been predicting a Yzerman like transition for a few years now. It's not all that surprising to me really.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
The Athletic just did a players poll and Sid was easily picked as the best all around player in the game.
The Macho King
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Kucherov looks like he's going to finish with the most points since 96, plus possibly set the record for assists for a winger and points by a Russian.
If he doesn't get it, the award means jack shit.
BenchBrawl
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Is it me, or are some star forwards receiving more avg TOI than in prior years?
Also, scoring seems to be way up this year, maybe more than in any season since 1996, though I was waiting for the season to end to verify.
So if scoring is way up, saying he will get the highest point total since 1996 is meaningless.
As for record for highest assist by a winger, and more points by a russian, cool, but meaningless too.Run it through VsX for assists.It's probably going to be very good though.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
I hear you.
Kuch has been unreal this year as an offensive force. I think it's important to note his dominance on the PP and the Lightning are absolutely stacked but at some point you just have to say the dude is so far out in front of everyone else it doesn't matter haha.
BenchBrawl
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On another note, Kucherov scores a lot of points on the PP, Crosby scores a lot of ES points.Kucherov plays on a very strong team, Crosby plays on a declining lineup.
Itès not clear at all that Kucherov is a better hockey player than Sidney Crosby this year.
Would also like to see the relevant points scored breakdown, as in any points scored when games are within 2 goals (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2 situations or equivalent).I'm sure some young maniac did this on the main board, but how to find it.
Itès not clear at all that Kucherov is a better hockey player than Sidney Crosby this year.
Would also like to see the relevant points scored breakdown, as in any points scored when games are within 2 goals (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2 situations or equivalent).I'm sure some young maniac did this on the main board, but how to find it.
The Macho King
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BenchBrawl
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Sure, I wasn't aiming Kucherov.I don't hate Kucherov at all and I'm not a ''Crosby fanboy''.I just learned to appreciate him more and more as his career unfolded.
I'm just wondering what the hell is oging on with the NHL.I'm not following it that closely since 2017.Now we have dream-like offensive numbers being scored again.
The Macho King
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I have some theories. Goalie equipment tweaks may have helped a bit (more goals seem to leak through goaltenders nowadays). The current crop of young players grew up with the stretch pass, instead of adapting post-lockout. Analytics departments have emphasized quality shots over the whole "throw it on net and pray for a rebound" systems that were prevalent for years. The emphasis on penalizing stick infractions has made it easier to get to those areas as well.
And I also think talent doesn't come into the league equally. We had some shit drafts from like 1997-2007. On the other side, 2008-2015 or so were all pretty solid drafts. So talent just looks a little better.
Also - frankly, while goal scoring is up, it isn't up *that* much. 05-06 was higher. It's about .16 per game higher than last season (both teams).
BenchBrawl
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Fluctuations of talent wouldn't explain why Crosby's numbers are also fluctuating for example.
Here's a little exercise I did, just check how many point-per-game scorers (min 30 games) played in every season since 1996:
1996: 43
1997: 24
1998: 15
1999: 15
2000: 22
2001: 31
2002: 10
2003: 17
2004: 12
2005: LOCK-OUT
2006: 37
2007: 32
2008: 23
2009: 20
2010: 21
2011: 15
2012: 9
2013: 20 (PARTIAL LOCK-OUT)
2014: 13
2015: 8
2016: 5
2017: 8
2018: 24
2019: 37
An influx of talent cannot explain so drastic an increase.
As for 05-06: It was very reliant on PP chances, is that the case this year? Like I said I barely followed the NHL since 2017.
The Macho King
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Nah - PP chances are actually the second lowest in history. But PP% is up a good bit (historically). This season is currently like 15th or 16th all time.
BenchBrawl
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See the similarity between PPG numbers in 75-76 and 18-19:
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=pointsPerGame
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=pointsPerGame
So what Kucherov is doing is impressive, but not as impressive as it looks on his total alone.
Same thing.Scoring now is like in the 70s.
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=pointsPerGame
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=pointsPerGame
So what Kucherov is doing is impressive, but not as impressive as it looks on his total alone.
Same thing.Scoring now is like in the 70s.
The Macho King
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But not for the same reasons, and we're still only going to end up with maybe 5? 100 point scorers?
The 70s was just an imbalanced, talent depleted league. WHA, few Euros, rapid expansion, plus Pollock dummying GMs with collecting every high pick in the draft like he was playing an EA NHL game. Scoring was high because the quality of play was low.
If anything, this reminds me of like 92-93 except with goaltenders that can stop a beach ball. High talent league-wide, every game seems fun, and there isn't a ton of crap dragging the league down.
BenchBrawl
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The reasons matter, but not necessarily that much when trying to evaluate the impressiveness of what Kucherov is doing.At the end of the day we're checking what he does against other top players, just like we did for Guy Lafleur or Bobby Clarke in 75-76.
If he had this pace in 2016 then that would have been insane.Now it's not insane.It's very good.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
If he dragged them to the playoffs I'm willing to call him a Hart finalist and first team center, I'm not quite sure about Hart winner but there are still some games left...
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Yeah, Kucherov is just so far ahead in the points race it's hard to ignore. But I have zero problem calling Sid the first team AS at C and a Hart finalist this year, as of now. Maybe Sid averages like 2 points the rest of the way and Kuch really cools off but that's a very unlikely scenario.
Tonight he was on the ice for all 5 goals the Pens scored, including 4 even strength tallies.
He's up to a +22 on the year, whereas Malkin is a -20 I think. That's an insane split for teammates on a team a good bit above .500
Tonight he was on the ice for all 5 goals the Pens scored, including 4 even strength tallies.
He's up to a +22 on the year, whereas Malkin is a -20 I think. That's an insane split for teammates on a team a good bit above .500
BenchBrawl
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We get to the essence of offense vs. all-around play and their respective contributions to team success.
I'm gonna try to see if some main-boarder did the break down of relevant vs. blowout points.
BenchBrawl
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Also, since the current scoring environment is similar to the 1970s, observe how top players accumulates more star power when they can score more, even if their VsX score is not necessarily better than in a low scoring year.Or maybe I'm just imagining it.But every night it seems Kucherov scores 2-3 points, same with Kane.That's a lot of daily ''impressiveness'' imprinted in people's mind, that cannot be imprinted in a low scoring environment.
Take Patrick Kane.There's a chance he scores 50 goals and 115+ points all the while being an electrifying RWer.Sounds familiar from the 1970s? Imagine Guy Lafleur going like Patrick Kane is going now, for 6 years in a row, in the playoffs too, and winning 4 SCs in a row.What does that do for your star power? What kind of imprint does that leave?
Every time some kid or adult go to see a game, pay a ticket, sit down, they see the player scoring a goal or a point.Making plays.They leave, satisfied and impressed.In a low scoring environment, many go there, pay the ticket, leave empty-handed; the star didn't score.Generalize this on many years and on thousands of fans, and there's a difference in star power IMO.
Guess this is where hard battles, playoff wars and rivalries come into play to create star power in any environment, which would explain why every player and their mother from O6 have enormous star power.
Take Patrick Kane.There's a chance he scores 50 goals and 115+ points all the while being an electrifying RWer.Sounds familiar from the 1970s? Imagine Guy Lafleur going like Patrick Kane is going now, for 6 years in a row, in the playoffs too, and winning 4 SCs in a row.What does that do for your star power? What kind of imprint does that leave?
Every time some kid or adult go to see a game, pay a ticket, sit down, they see the player scoring a goal or a point.Making plays.They leave, satisfied and impressed.In a low scoring environment, many go there, pay the ticket, leave empty-handed; the star didn't score.Generalize this on many years and on thousands of fans, and there's a difference in star power IMO.
Guess this is where hard battles, playoff wars and rivalries come into play to create star power in any environment, which would explain why every player and their mother from O6 have enormous star power.
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The Macho King
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So if I recall from our debate in the Top 100 discussion, you're big on "star power", which is probably more naturally accumulated during high scoring eras. So isn't Kucherov accumulating "star power", sneezing 1.6 points per game or whatever, two 5 point games and like 5 4+ point games - isn't that a mark in his favor?
BenchBrawl
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I added to my post too.
I think big rivalries create a lot of star power, and deservingly so.
What I meant with my post is to try to ''adjust'' star power if necessary.I have no conclusion to offer, I'm thinking out loud.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
It is and it isn't.
Kuch's problem is he's a Euro. I hate that it's the reality but some North American folk (voters included) still have that bias.
He plays for Tampa. Great team, been a great squad for a while now (Yzerman is a hellova GM btw, which you rarely see from former players) but they get lost playing in Florida. Not a strong market in the grand scheme.
And Tampa is absolutely loaded. You take him away and the Bolts are still most likely a playoff team this season.
Pittsburgh is lost without 87 this year, given their plethora of injuries, Malkin and Kessel playing like poop and very uneven goal tending.
McDavid and Kane are both on teams outside the playoff push. The Avs duo fell off the face of the earth at the halfway mark.
With that being said, Kuch is still my pick for MVP. Even with his absurd PP rate, his scoring is just too much to ignore. He's 12 points clear of 2nd and 16 clear of McD in 3rd. 22 clear of Sid in 4th. Now if Sid were somehow able to close the gap to single digits then I might change my mind but as of now I definitely have Kuch as the Hart winner with Sid in 2nd and honestly, maybe Burns as the 3 given Karlsson having such a slow start to the year, suspension, and now being injured. And yet the Sharks are as good a bet in the West as anyone.
BenchBrawl
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Crosby did play 4 less games than Kucherov.That's 5 points lost at his current pace, that would put him at 88 pts, so 18 points behind Kucherov.That's a lot, granted.
But faceoffs, defensive play (he might just go on to win the Selke, so that's an understatement), ES scoring, leadership in carrying his team, all of this makes him a serious contender for the Hart, if Pittsburgh make it.If they don't it's hopeless.
Kane, Burns and McDavid would also deserve Top 5 considerations for sure.
But faceoffs, defensive play (he might just go on to win the Selke, so that's an understatement), ES scoring, leadership in carrying his team, all of this makes him a serious contender for the Hart, if Pittsburgh make it.If they don't it's hopeless.
Kane, Burns and McDavid would also deserve Top 5 considerations for sure.
The Macho King
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BTW - Tampa's PP is currently like the highest since the 81 Islanders. Yes he scores a lot on the PP, but the PP is good because he is good.
Since he's been on the top PP (It took a shockingly long time for that to happen, btw) -
He has, 32 points in 17, 36 points in 18, 41 points* so far in 19. I think when gauging how much a player *relies* on the PP for his points is different from saying how many of his points are *generated* on the PP. You can't put just anyone on the RW on Tampa's PP and rack up the same points. Maybe Kane would have similar success there (although his one-timer isn't as much of a threat as Kucherov's, but he's as good a passer and has similar shiftiness), but other than that, the PP's success is *because* of Kucherov. He QBs from the half-wall. Everything is generated on passing plays he starts. He's the one that makes the call if it's going to be an umbrella from Hedman to Stamkos for a one-timer, or a bumper play to the guy below the goal line out to Point, or a cross-ice pass for Stamkos. Those are the reads he is making. He is generating the offense, so whether the points come EV or on the PP, they're not replacement-level points.
Since he's been on the top PP (It took a shockingly long time for that to happen, btw) -
He has, 32 points in 17, 36 points in 18, 41 points* so far in 19. I think when gauging how much a player *relies* on the PP for his points is different from saying how many of his points are *generated* on the PP. You can't put just anyone on the RW on Tampa's PP and rack up the same points. Maybe Kane would have similar success there (although his one-timer isn't as much of a threat as Kucherov's, but he's as good a passer and has similar shiftiness), but other than that, the PP's success is *because* of Kucherov. He QBs from the half-wall. Everything is generated on passing plays he starts. He's the one that makes the call if it's going to be an umbrella from Hedman to Stamkos for a one-timer, or a bumper play to the guy below the goal line out to Point, or a cross-ice pass for Stamkos. Those are the reads he is making. He is generating the offense, so whether the points come EV or on the PP, they're not replacement-level points.
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