ATD 2020 Draft Thread IV

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BenchBrawl

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Jul 26, 2010
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HHOFer Lynn Patrick, LW/C is the highest scoring available LW by a pretty decent margin, and has been for a couple rounds now.

He peaked with 3 amazing seasons from the ages of 28-30, before he joined the military for WW2, and wasn't able to regain his form after the war:

1940-41: 3rd in points (5th in goals, 6th in assists)

1941-42: 2nd in points (1st in goals). 1st Team All-Star LW, 3rd in Hart voting

1942-43: 4th in points (7th in assists). 2nd Team All-Star LW

His 7 year VsX score of 79.4 puts him right in the range of Daniel Sedin (79.9), Henrik Zetterberg (79.5), Michel Goulet (79.3), Keith Tkachuk (79.0), and Brendan Shanahan (79.0).

So why does Patrick fall so far? He was an offense-only player who was really, really soft (nickname "Twinkletoes"). But for my team, he has Duke Keats - "the bad man of the West" to center him (and protect him).

I see Lynn Patrick the same as I see Phil Kessel. They bring offense if you can compensate for their big flaws, but they will always be taken last inside their offensive range.

I had to take a shower after I took Kessel earlier. Nothing against the guy but it's always a battle against the wind to defend him. Kessel is even worse since he's an active player.
 

MadArcand

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Doan vs. Guerin was something I quickly considered, but my Guerin pick was made on the rush. They look similar to me intuitively. Proven chemistry with Crosby made it an easy decision in favor of Guerin.
I wouldn't call them too similar. Guerin's a physical goalscorer, good fit as finisher with grit for a playmaking center. Doan's more of a pure glue-guy grinder in ATD sense, bringing well-rounded but lower-level offense, solid defense and lot of grit.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Jun 29, 2009
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Chicago selects Alex Tanguay, LW

Tanguay is a very strong ES scorer with an ES Vs.X score equal to Modano, Francis, and Hawerchuk. Granted Tanguay was not the driving force of his line like those guys, but it's still impressive, especially compared to the other LW's available.
 

BenchBrawl

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Jul 26, 2010
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Chicago selects Alex Tanguay, LW

Tanguay is a very strong ES scorer with an ES Vs.X score equal to Modano, Francis, and Hawerchuk. Granted Tanguay was not the driving force of his line like those guys, but it's still impressive, especially compared to the other LW's available.

He was high on my list to play with Roenick-Broadbent.

Tanguay is also good defensively as a playmaking winger. Soft though.
 

BenchBrawl

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Jul 26, 2010
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I wouldn't call them too similar. Guerin's a physical goalscorer, good fit as finisher with grit for a playmaking center. Doan's more of a pure glue-guy grinder in ATD sense, bringing well-rounded but lower-level offense, solid defense and lot of grit.

Fair enough.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Aug 28, 2006
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With a division that features Trottier, Lindros, Sundin, etc, Saskatoon wants a high end defensive C that can match up with the big boys physically speaking.

Snipers select:

John Madden, C/LW

madden_cup_devils_2003_original_crop_exact.jpg

He CAN play LW, but he's more effective at C

To add to this - he's probably just as good a checker at LW, but he loses any ability to chip in the occasional goal on the counterattack - becoming a total black hole offensively. He also obviously loses his faceoff ability too
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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I see Lynn Patrick the same as I see Phil Kessel. They bring offense if you can compensate for their big flaws, but they will always be taken last inside their offensive range.

I had to take a shower after I took Kessel earlier. Nothing against the guy but it's always a battle against the wind to defend him. Kessel is even worse since he's an active player.

I think Patrick stands out a bit more offensively than Kessel. You can often get really good value on offense-only LWs. The reason is that most lines are constructed so that the "glue guy" is at LW.
 

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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I think Patrick stands out a bit more offensively than Kessel. You can often get really good value on offense-only LWs. The reason is that most lines are constructed so that the "glue guy" is at LW.

Kessel is a proven play-off scorer. I had both Kessel and Patrick at the top of my list for guys I hoped would slide, but I would have taken Kessel first, for sure.
 

ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
Jun 18, 2013
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Kessel is what he is.

But at least we know he's capable of having very strong postseason runs. And say what you want, but the guy doesn't miss hockey games despite being soft. If he's carrying a line or team you're in trouble but put the right people around him and he can be very effective, with that effectiveness going up in April and beyond.
 

VanIslander

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The Skipjacks select Nick Metz a.k.a. "The Handyman" because the left winger was also used at center and right wing with noted proficiency. The 9-time Stanley Cup finalist was alternate captain during his 12th and last season, scoring a couple of playoff goals en route to his 4th cup, including a game winner. He retired on his own terms, said to have more in the tank. The year before he had been 2nd in Leaf goals and 3rd in points in their 1947 postseason march to victory, Metz scoring a shorthanded playoff goal, having led the NHL in penalty kill goals in the regular season back in 1937 and 1939, scoring a couple each time during an era when it was rare. Metz was 3rd in Leaf playoff goals in his first championship victory, scoring a playoff-leading three game winners. The year before that Metz had led the Leafs in goals and assists with his series-high 7 points (no other on either team had more than 5) in a hard-fought 7 game series against a loaded Bruins team that would go on to sweep the finals with the Kraut Line, Cowley and co., Metz scoring a game winner against Mr. Zero Frank Brimsek. The year before that Metz tied the team lead in playoff assists as the Leafs went to Game 6 of the finals against the Rangers. And the year before that Metz was 2nd in Leaf goals in a Stanley Cup finals run, beginning what would become six significant Stanley Cup playoff scoring postseasons from a player whose primary skill is checking and penalty killing.

106376442_136277930862.jpg


Conn Smythe said:
''That Metz is the best all around player in the league. He can play anywhere, and good. In any kind of going you can use him at center, on the wings, or at defense..."
 
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tinyzombies

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Dec 24, 2002
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I have to read that Eric Zweig Leaf oral history. I leafed (nyuck nyuck) through it at a bookstore but didn't bite. Was entertaining. There's youtube footage of the 47 Habs-Leafs series- totally savage hockey. Right on top of each other everywhere the puck goes. (Delete this comment.)
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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One cool thing about this huge draft is we are now getting into players who will play key roles who actually could use new or updated bios.

Hard to motivate yourself to do a big bio of someone who already has a comprehensive bio... Or someone who will barely play on your team.

For the first time in a few years, bio writing (and original research in general) could play a big role in determining how teams do.
 
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Sturminator

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Feb 27, 2002
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The 40 team no-trade format is a good one. Nice to see teams still getting fleshed out on the top lines/pairings with guys typically assigned to bottom-unit stuff. Seems like the goalie market is really different at 40 teams than it is in smaller formats. No surprise. The "undervaluation" of goalies in the ATD was always a matter of supply and demand much more so than a cultural bias against the position. In smaller drafts, the back end of the goalie market is good enough that waiting becomes a quite viable tactic. In larger drafts, scarcity drives the price of starting goalies up. It's simple.

So, I decided to do a quick shadow draft of where I'd be thus far. Did it the first time I looked through the draft list so as not to "game" later round picks by knowing what others would do. Shadow drafts are always a little wonky because changing one pick can change them all, but anyway, here goes [I use CDF's #19 position]:

1: Frank Nighbor
2: Borje Salming
3: Busher Jackson
4: Bernie Parent
5: Frantisek Pospisil
6: Helmuts Balderis
7: Frank Fredrickson
8: Bernie Morris
9: Doug Mohns
10: Dean Prentice
11. Dave Burrows

I'm pretty happy with it. My shadow team then looks like:

Jackson - Nighbor - Morris
Prentice - Frederickson - Balderis

Salming - Pospisil
Mohns - Burrows

Parent​
 

Namba 17

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May 9, 2011
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Ah yes, Sturm has been for a few years. We care more about LD/RD now than we did even 2 years ago.

We used to not care enough. Do we care too much now?

Always good to see you back, @Sturminator. Seventieslord and I were just wondering if you'd stop by this year.
It depends on GM, I believe.
I care, because to me it is a part of an exercise - to pick a player to play his real life position. It's always tempting to put some C into wing, because you are sure that he will be good there and wings are thinner position than C (despite that C played next to none games as a wing). Or to put some defensive C into 1st line C position and say, based on his only season as a #1 C, that he would score at a race he did in his only that particular season.
But to me we have some limits and the main one - what happened in real life. Making your team using this limit is much more difficult, than using your imagination. That's the reason I am, personally, rate a team, that was created following this limit higher, than a team that was not.
But off course, it's me and other GMs may use their criteria. We have no strict rules here.
 

ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
Jun 18, 2013
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The 40 team no-trade format is a good one. Nice to see teams still getting fleshed out on the top lines/pairings with guys typically assigned to bottom-unit stuff. Seems like the goalie market is really different at 40 teams than it is in smaller formats. No surprise. The "undervaluation" of goalies in the ATD was always a matter of supply and demand much more so than a cultural bias against the position. In smaller drafts, the back end of the goalie market is good enough that waiting becomes a quite viable tactic. In larger drafts, scarcity drives the price of starting goalies up. It's simple.

So, I decided to do a quick shadow draft of where I'd be thus far. Did it the first time I looked through the draft list so as not to "game" later round picks by knowing what others would do. Shadow drafts are always a little wonky because changing one pick can change them all, but anyway, here goes [I use CDF's #19 position]:

1: Frank Nighbor
2: Borje Salming
3: Busher Jackson
4: Bernie Parent
5: Frantisek Pospisil
6: Helmuts Balderis
7: Frank Fredrickson
8: Bernie Morris
9: Doug Mohns
10: Dean Prentice
11. Dave Burrows

I'm pretty happy with it. My shadow team then looks like:

Jackson - Nighbor - Morris
Prentice - Frederickson - Balderis

Salming - Pospisil
Mohns - Burrows

Parent​

Blast from the past Sturm! How long has it been haha?

As for the bolded? That position never made sense to me.

In a 25 team draft if you get Gump Worsley or Grant Fuhr you're going to have one of the worst starters in the league as both goalies are in the mid 20's ranking all time.

In a 40 team draft if you get Percy LeSueur you're going to have one of the worst starters in the league since he'd probably fall in the 35-40 range all time.

The only difference is Billy Smith or Grant Fuhr are more recognizable names. Yes they are ranked higher than Percy LeSeur, but Percy isn't getting drafted at all in a 25 team draft....Not as a starter. It's all relative based on where a player ranks all time in relation to the size of the draft. The 25th ranked goalie in a 25 team draft means you have a crap starter.

The 38th ranked goalie in a 40 team draft means you have a crap starter.

I think there were people who began a trend, articulated their position in a way that made it seem feasible, pushed that position, in order to basically ignore the goalie in favor of drafting a stronger skater for a top 6/top 4 role. I don't think for one second it was a simple matter of organic, simple math.

It pained me watching people routinely putting off drafting a goalie, not as a matter of mathematics, but because they undervalued (and artificially reduced the value of) a position that is the only player to play 60 minutes of a hockey game and is almost always going to be more impactful than a 3rd wheel on a top line or conductor of a 2nd line, which is what you're upgrading to pass on say a Dryden or Brimsek. Unless you're talking on a 1D or 1C, I don't see another spot in a hockey lineup that is more critical than your G. But I realize that isn't a universal opinion.

Almost every ATD is chalk full of series where far worse goalies are routinely beating the better netminder. Some of those series made sense as the skaters on the inferior goalie team were so strong it overcame their crappy netminder. Other times I saw a lopsided goalie match up and skaters that were absolutely close enough that the Roy or Hasek or Plante's should have carried their respective team over the top vs the George Hainsworth's of the world.

For many years, I think voters largely only cared about F's and D's (look at the old assassination and H2H threads to see where debates focused on positinally speaking) where the G and coaches spots were, in some cases, shat on/largely ignored.

Just how I felt in years past. Mainly pre 2015/16ish.
 
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Namba 17

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May 9, 2011
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Blast from the past Sturm! How long has it been haha?

As for the bolded? That position never made sense to me.
In a 25 team draft if you get Gump Worsley or Grant Fuhr you're going to have one of the worst starters in the league as both goalies are in the mid 20's ranking all time.
The 38th ranked goalie in a 40 team draft means you have a crap starter.
I disagree here.
The main thing with goalies - you need just one, which means that this position is the deepest in a draft. With 38th goalie you still have a strong starter.
Imagine 5 team draft. 5th team' 1st line C will be Morenz. Does this mean, that you have "crappy" 1st line C? I don't think so. Yes, in 5 teams draft he will be, probably, the weakest #1 C. But you have other picks to make things better. This is the reason, I think, goalies are drafted comparatively later (and rightfully so, to me).
 
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