ATD 2020 Draft Thread IV

[BenchBrawl]

Sullivan and Svedberg are both good picks in my eyes; I almost took Sullivan with my last pick, and considered Svedberg earlier for my Montreal team.

 

[VanIslander]

Basically a #4 D just has to be a top 160 D of all time to be considered passable.

No.

A 2nd pairing still has to handle a Gordie Howe in a road game (you don't get last line change).

A 40-team draft emphasizes:

1) the impact of a top star against diluted opposition; and

2) the competitive advantage of a team that can throw two solid defensive pairings onto the ice for 50ish minutes of a game with no question marks.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Should be noted that Svedberg beat out Ragulin for his WC All-Star nods. Much much shorter prime than Ragulin though.

Red Sullivan falling to the MLD last year was insanity.

My pick within 5 minutes.

 

[VanIslander]

Should be noted that Svedberg beat out Ragulin for his WC All-Star nods. Much much shorter prime than Ragulin

Remember the absurdity years ago of Ragulin as a top 100 player?

If you can't find ten better Soviets then you ain't lookin'!

 

[ImporterExporter]

No.

A 2nd pairing still has to handle a Gordie Howe in a road game (you don't get last line change).

A 40-team draft emphasizes:

1) the impact of a top star against diluted opposition; and

2) the competitive advantage of a team that can throw two solid defensive pairings onto the ice for 50ish minutes of a game with no question marks.

Gordie Howe is going to make a lot of TOP PAIRING players look like fools.

Again, to be a passable #4 D in a 40 team draft, one should be looking to get players inside the top 150ish all time at the position. If the #40 D of all time is the last viable #1 (give or take) then the relative continuation of rankings would get yo to where I'm pointing to.

If you have a really strong top 4 here you're going to be way behind the 8 ball at the F position (most likely) or in net/behind the bench. If ever there was a draft to spread the wealth around it's a 40 team version.

At this stage of the draft, A LOT of guys are being picked as 2nd pairing options. Is Wally Stanowski going to handle Gordie? He'll be a top 4 defender here.

With diluted teams I'm looking more heavily at team construction and chemistry because there are players all over the board playing well above their heads in a 40 team draft relative to years past.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

HHOFer Lynn Patrick, LW/C is the highest scoring available LW by a pretty decent margin, and has been for a couple rounds now.

He peaked with 3 amazing seasons from the ages of 28-30, before he joined the military for WW2, and wasn't able to regain his form after the war:

1940-41: 3rd in points (5th in goals, 6th in assists)

1941-42: 2nd in points (1st in goals). 1st Team All-Star LW, 3rd in Hart voting

1942-43: 4th in points (7th in assists). 2nd Team All-Star LW

His 7 year VsX score of 79.4 puts him right in the range of Daniel Sedin (79.9), Henrik Zetterberg (79.5), Michel Goulet (79.3), Keith Tkachuk (79.0), and Brendan Shanahan (79.0).

So why does Patrick fall so far? He was an offense-only player who was really, really soft (nickname "Twinkletoes"). But for my team, he has Duke Keats - "the bad man of the West" to center him (and protect him).

 

[ResilientBeast]

The Victoria Cougars will select another fun research project (Especially since I recently got that History of Professional Hockey in Victoria book) and player who has yo-yoed up and down the draft over the years. At 40 teams a deserving 2C and select Tommy Dunderdale, C

Dunderdale will line up on the Cougars second line and regularly play with Delvecchio.

Awards and Achievements:
3 x PCHA League Champion (1913, 1914, 1916)
6 x PCHA All-Star Team (1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1920, 1922)
Scoring:
PCHA Points 1st(1913), 1st(1920), 3rd(1912), 3rd(1914), 5th(1918), 6th(1915), 6th(1922), 9th(1921), 10th(1917)
PCHA Goals 1st(1913), 1st(1914), 1st(1920), 3rd(1912), 4th(1915), 4th(1916), 4th(1918), 6th(1917), 7th(1922), 10th(1921)
PCHA Assists 2nd(1920), 3rd(1913), 3rd(1915), 4th(1914), 5th(1918), 5th(1921), 6th(1922)

@Sturminator did a Vs2 PCHA analysis back in ATD 2011
* Number presented is Vs2, number in brackets is against nearest teammate

Taylor: 134 [139], 126 [86], 124 [44], 109 [67], 102 [2]
Fredrickson: 136 [108], 100 [75], 100 [60], 96 [32], 91 [114]*
Morris: 102 [13], 100 [68], 100 [53], 100 [39], 92[4]
Dunderdale: 145 [53]**, 114 [27], 92 [26]**, 90 [-11], 73 [-32]
Foyston: 100 [107], 97 [11], 91 [-13], 88 [-4], 82 [0]
MacKay: 100 [38], 100 [-2], 100 [-15], 93 [-15], 60 [-40]

FYI: I've removed Eddie Oatman from the analysis as at the time I formatted this post he was undrafted

- Dunderdale's 1st and 3rd best seasons are difficult to evaluate because assists were not recorded, and the Vs2 numbers probably overstate his performance.
- I think the VsNext numbers are fairly valuable for seperating offensive performances at the margins, as they give a clear indication as to how much help and how much checking attention a player received. I would suggest a rough system for assigning value within the brackets at 20% of the number shown and adding that to the Vs2 total for a sort of "offensive value" metric. Using such an (admittedly rough) system, the above seasons would come out as follows, in terms of offensive value:
Taylor: 134 [139]
Fredrickson: 136 [108]
Dunderdale: 145 [53]
Taylor: 126 [86]
Taylor: 124 [44]
Taylor: 109 [67]
Foyston: 100 [107]
Dunderdale: 114 [27]
Fredrickson: 100 [75]
Morris: 100 [68]
Fredrickson: 91 [114]
Fredrickson: 100 [60]
Morris: 100 [53]
Morris: 100 [39]
MacKay: 100 [38]
Morris: 102 [13]
Fredrickson: 96 [32] // Taylor: 102 [2]
Foyston: 97 [11]
MacKay: 100 [-2]
Dunderdale: 92 [26]
Morris: 92[4]
MacKay: 100 [-15]
Foyston: 91 [-13]
Dunderdale: 90 [-11]
Foyston: 88 [-4]
MacKay: 93 [-15]
Dunderdale: 73 [-32]
MacKay: 60 [-40]
Phew...well, I leave it to the other GMs to decide what to make of all this and if, indeed, the analysis is of any value. My conversation with Devil got me thinking about incorporating some form of comparison of a player's scoring vs. his next best teammate into an offensive analysis, and this is the first fruit of that line of thought. Have at it.

 

[VanIslander]

Dunderdale is awesome now.

I can only think of two undrafted centers equally absolutely deserving of top-6 role in this draft.

 

[ResilientBeast]

No.

A 2nd pairing still has to handle a Gordie Howe in a road game (you don't get last line change).

A 40-team draft emphasizes:

1) the impact of a top star against diluted opposition; and

2) the competitive advantage of a team that can throw two solid defensive pairings onto the ice for 50ish minutes of a game with no question marks.

Ok, but then that team won't have enough forwards who can do anything?

You're suggesting all teams must have two pairings to play against Howe, with that sort of requirement these teams will be starved of offence because the economics of the draft make satisfying both of these requirements impossible unless your forwards are all Cowley/L.Patrick/T.Smith types

 

[ResilientBeast]

Dunderdale is awesome now.

I can only think of two other centers absolutely deserving of top-6 role in this draft.

Almost took him last round over Mosdell. But felt getting a legitimate 3C with offensive upside and defensive chops was more worth it and rolled the dice.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The Victoria Cougars will select another fun research project (Especially since I recently got that History of Professional Hockey in Victoria book) and player who has yo-yoed up and down the draft over the years. At 40 teams a deserving 2C and select Tommy Dunderdale, C

Dunderdale will line up on the Cougars second line and regularly play with Delvecchio.

Awards and Achievements:
3 x PCHA League Champion (1913, 1914, 1916)
6 x PCHA All-Star Team (1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1920, 1922)
Scoring:
PCHA Points 1st(1913), 1st(1920), 3rd(1912), 3rd(1914), 5th(1918), 6th(1915), 6th(1922), 9th(1921), 10th(1917)
PCHA Goals 1st(1913), 1st(1914), 1st(1920), 3rd(1912), 4th(1915), 4th(1916), 4th(1918), 6th(1917), 7th(1922), 10th(1921)
PCHA Assists 2nd(1920), 3rd(1913), 3rd(1915), 4th(1914), 5th(1918), 5th(1921), 6th(1922)

@Sturminator did a Vs2 PCHA analysis back in ATD 2011
* Number presented is Vs2, number in brackets is against nearest teammate


FYI: I've removed Eddie Oatman from the analysis as at the time I formatted this post he was undrafted

He used to go way too high, back before we realized that he was nowhere near the leaders in scoring after his best few seasons. I think this is a pretty good spot for him though.

And Delvecchio and he complement each other very well - soft, two-way playmaking winger, and tough, one-way goal-scoring center. Guys like Delvecchio are so useful early on because they let you take guys like Dunderdale later.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Love the pace as well today.

Real good shot at getting all the way back to MadA in round 12.

 

[ResilientBeast]

He used to go way too high, back before we realized that he was nowhere near the leaders in scoring after his best few seasons. I think this is a pretty good spot for him though.

And Delvecchio and he complement each other very well - soft, two-way playmaking winger, and tough, one-way goal-scoring center. Guys like Delvecchio are so useful early on because they let you take guys like Dunderdale later.[/QUOTE]

I had a hard time getting a read on his toughness, was he tough enough to be a legit difference maker in the ATD or more of a he survived the 1910s tough?

Edit: The biggest lesson I've learned over the 6 drafts

why is the forum so glitchy

 

[ImporterExporter]

Sullivan and Svedberg are both good picks in my eyes; I almost took Sullivan with my last pick, and considered Svedberg earlier for my Montreal team.

Sullivan is a guy I want to own but HT keeps claiming dibs on him almost every year!

 

[VanIslander]

He used to go way too high, back before we realized that he was nowhere near the leaders in scoring after his best few seasons.

So, you think Fedorov is more of a 3rd liner in most smaller drafts.

It's nice to hold the same standard.

 

[tabness]

Skates pick Dave Andreychuk and Roberto Luongo

Andreychuk reunites with LaFontaine and Mogilny (the line was going to be the first line to have everyone score 50 until Andreychuk was traded but he still scored 50)

Luongo cause I need a goalie and I don't really like goalies but I did like him (not comfortable with talent evaluation on goalies but he has to be among the best if not the best of his era)

 

[ImporterExporter]

So, you think Fedorov is more of a 3rd liner in most smaller drafts.

It's nice to hold the same standard.

Definitely a 2nd liner at best. I don't see him as a guy you want carrying a line offensively and his career always struck me as someone who did better when he wasn't THE guy.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

So, you think Fedorov is more of a 3rd liner in most smaller drafts.

It's nice to hold the same standard.

Huh?

I mean in a 10-15 team draft, yes Fedorov should be a 3rd liner probably?

 

[ResilientBeast]

So it will be a bit, a lot of different directions I could go and I'm working night shift this week.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

So it will be a bit, a lot of different directions I could go and I'm working night shift this week.

Don't rush; I'm in the same boat

 

[ImporterExporter]

So it will be a bit, a lot of different directions I could go and I'm working night shift this week.

Don't rush; I'm in the same boat

Had to bust it out.

 

[ResilientBeast]

I had a hard time getting a read on his toughness, was he tough enough to be a legit difference maker in the ATD or more of a he survived the 1910s tough?

Edit: The biggest lesson I've learned over the 6 drafts

why is the forum so glitchy

@TheDevilMadeMe any insight on the first question?

 

[VanIslander]

Lol.

 

[The Macho King]

Luongo is better than quite a few goalies who have been taken long ago.

 

[VanIslander]

Luongo is better than quite a few goalies who have been taken long ago.

Yet not as good as two (maybe three) to come.