ATD 2020 Draft Thread IV

[Habsfan18]

The bolded says it all, as well as the fact we are much deeper into the draft.

Also, if Panarin missed half a season in those 5 years, I wouldn't have taken him.

So a freak injury in the 2nd half of McDavid’s rookie season is the logic behind Panarin at LW being the much better selection than McDavid at C?

The notion that a whole half a season makes a huge difference here is comical.

I’d be willing to bet if Van and I didn’t select McDavid when we did, someone else would have scooped him up within the next 20 picks.

 

[BenchBrawl]

So a freak injury in the 2nd half of McDavid’s rookie season is the logic behind Panarin at LW being the much better selection than McDavid at C?

The notion that a whole half a season makes a huge difference here is comical.

Look, my internal minimum is 5 years. Feel free to bookmark that.

Panarin is a case where I took him because there was nobody else. McDavid was picked out of greed. It was a greedy pick.

 

[Habsfan18]

Look, my internal minimum is 5 years. Feel free to bookmark that.

Or in this case a whopping 40-game career difference?

 

[tinyzombies]

tabness was the last GM to pick on the clock - at 1:47 pm EST. So you would be up at 7:47 EST.

Right?

Yeah, but now I'm chickening out of my pick. I need a second.

 

[rmartin65]

If I compare them to Panarin yes. But it's a case by case thing.

If say I pick a Modano-type player, I feel VsX just becomes a useless tool to compare him with Panarin.

I try to use the best and fairest tool for the comparison at hand.

Benn vs. Panarin, use 5 years, then adjust for longevity.

Lafleur vs. Panarin, use 5 years, then adjust for longevity.

Modano vs. Panarin, why use VsX? Maybe as a secondary angle, but it's not a very good way to compare the two players.

Ok, that works for me. I agree that VsX is not a perfect player comparison tool (it is only offense... and even then, can be skewed by linemates, usage, etc), but still, it is a tool we use.

Panarin has a good peak but weak longevity. As long as that is dealt with honestly, then nobody should have any hurt feelings. Same goes for McDavid and some other players.

 

[Habsfan18]

A greedy pick? I’d love to hear the explanation there? We selected a player who for a few years now is considered one of the best players on planet earth. His past few seasons (even with a small overall career sample size) is comparable with all-time greats. His elite seasons absolutely placed him at the proper spot where we drafted him. He wasn’t overdrafted. He was drafted about exactly where he should have been.

You or anyone else who thought in a 40 team (160 starting centers) ATD that Connor McDavid was going to fall another round or two, are very naive. It was simply not going to happen even if you disagree with the pick.

Does greedy mean we should have been nice guys and kindly allowed someone else to select McDavid 20-30 slots down the line?

 

[BenchBrawl]

Ok, that works for me. I agree that VsX is not a perfect player comparison tool (it is only offense... and even then, can be skewed by linemates, usage, etc), but still, it is a tool we use.

Panarin has a good peak but weak longevity. As long as that is dealt with honestly, then nobody should have any hurt feelings. Same goes for McDavid and some other players.

Agreed and the fact he was still on the board that late is a testament to that. I think people are intuitively against GMs making greedy picks; drafting a player with a very high peak and nothing else earlier than other good options available. I don't think this was the case with my Panarin pick, especially considering the playmaking.

Panarin is already severely punished for his lack of longevity by being taken so late.

 

[rmartin65]

Panarin is already severely punished for his lack of longevity by being taken so late.

Not really. Being a late pick doesn't "punish" the player.

His lack of longevity needs to be acknowledged (I am not saying you are not) and discussed/taken into account during voting. That is the "punishment", not a low draft slot.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Ok, that works for me. I agree that VsX is not a perfect player comparison tool (it is only offense... and even then, can be skewed by linemates, usage, etc), but still, it is a tool we use.

Panarin has a good peak but weak longevity. As long as that is dealt with honestly, then nobody should have any hurt feelings. Same goes for McDavid and some other players.

And to add to my previous reply, with a Modano type player you have a franchise player who scored decent numbers for a #1 center for over 20 years and brought his team to back-to-back Stanley Cup finals with one championship, as well as playing under a strict defensive coach and developing a two-way game. At this point you cannot fit all that information inside a simple number like VsX.

But what I found VsX useful for in the case of Modano, is that it allowed me to conclude that he had his best offensive years simultaneously as his best defensive years. To verify that particular fact, VsX was the right tool, especially since Modano scored higher point totals at the beginning of his career in the early-90s, then peaked in the dead puck era, which confused his actual offensive progression.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Not really. Being a late pick doesn't "punish" the player.

His lack of longevity needs to be acknowledged (I am not saying you are not) and discussed/taken into account during voting. That is the "punishment", not a low draft slot.

This is what I meant, I should have been clearer. I haven't painted Panarin as a supersteal or anything like that. I was asked to justify it so I did, but it was implicit I'm not selling him as anything other than the best LWer available for my team, and the LWer with the best peak left. Nothing more.

Implicit in that attitude of mine is the understanding that he'll be taking down a notch. But I disagree with taking him down a notch by assigning the VsX value "60" to him, completely stripping him of his essence.

 

[Habsfan18]

This is what I meant, should have been clearer. I haven't painted Panarin as a supersteal or anything like that. I was asked to justify it so I did, but it was implicit I'm not selling him as anything other than the best LWer available for my team, and the LWer with the best peak left. Nothing more.

Would you mind listing all of the C’s available that you felt were better than McDavid when Van and I selected him? And which ones had the best peak compared to McDavid?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

No idea why 110 was the benchmark actually, but this is what @Hockey Outsider came up with in the "official VsX thread", so I used it.

Kucherov is considered an outlier (he's more than 10% ahead of 2nd place McDavid), and there's no other notable gaps in the scoring race, so 3rd place Kane becomes the benchmark.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Kucherov is considered an outlier (he's more than 10% ahead of 2nd place McDavid), and there's no other notable gaps in the scoring race, so 3rd place Kane becomes the benchmark.

Oh, so this year Draisaitl is also an outlier isn't he, so Panarin's score woudl actually be the benchmark?

For some reason I thought it didn't matter whether the 1st scorer was an outlier or not.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Would you mind listing all of the C’s available that you felt were better than McDavid when Van and I selected him? And which ones had the best peak compared to McDavid?

Glancing quickly, I feel guys like Staal, Turgeon, Lecavalier, Pavelski, have enough "meat" as real life 1st line centers to deserve being taken over McDavid on a 40 teams ATD Top 6. Yes, this is subjective. But the options were there. The current LWers that are available don't have peaks comparable to these centers, at least that I see. I might have missed one.

 

[VanIslander]

Anyone with a good guide on a good day can climb Everest.

Whomever scales K2 is an expert mountaineer.

An allegory.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Oh, so this year Draisaitl is also an outlier isn't he, so Panarin's score woudl actually be the benchmark?

For some reason I thought it didn't matter whether the 1st scorer was an outlier or not.

Actually I took another look at Sturminator's rules - I think you're right. So that means my 2019 numbers are incorrect - will work on getting those updated.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Actually I took another look at Sturminator's rules - I think you're right. So that means my 2019 numbers are incorrect - will work on getting those updated.

My thinking was that: If say you are Bryan Trottier and score 115 pts, and then in two alternate dimensions you finish 2nd in scoring to Wayne Gretzky (210 pts) and Marcel Dionne (121 pts), are you better in any one of them? My answer was no.

The fact that the best scorer is an outlier, doesn't mean we should make him disappear from the face of the earth. Because that takes away a generic Top 5 player from the pool of competition for this already small pool. I would only do it if it punishes everyone else not to do so, like if we took an outlier as the benchmark.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Oh, so this year Draisaitl is also an outlier isn't he, so Panarin's score woudl actually be the benchmark?

For some reason I thought it didn't matter whether the 1st scorer was an outlier or not.

I thought so too actually

Edit: See rule #2? Post-consolidation VsX Benchmarks

@Hockey Outsider ?

 

[Dreakmur]

Would you mind listing all of the C’s available that you felt were better than McDavid when Van and I selected him? And which ones had the best peak compared to McDavid?

If 5 years is your benchmark, I find it hard to dislike the McDavid pick.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I thought so too actually

Edit: See rule #2? Post-consolidation VsX Benchmarks

@Hockey Outsider ?

What do oyu mean with rule #2? It doesn't concern the 1st scorer.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I thought so too actually

Edit: See rule #2? Post-consolidation VsX Benchmarks

@Hockey Outsider ?

Confirmed. It's only if the 2nd scorer is at least 10% ahead of the 3rd scorer that we start treating the 2nd scorer as an outlier. The leading scorer is, essentially, irrelevant in this.

 

[tinyzombies]

Carey Price

6-3, 226 lbs.

Vezina: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10
Hart: 1, 7
AST: 1, 3, 4, 4, 5

Won the Hart, Vezina and Lester B. Pearson (Ted Lindsay) Trophy in 2014-15.

Has won at every level other than a Cup.

I know he'll get rated on his ups and downs, injuries and playoff record, but he's the most talented goalie I've ever seen with the naked eye - Hasek and Roy included. Roy's post-season heroics are unparalleled though. What Price has to deal with is on another level - every single player can skate and shoot and has decent handles and now you can't even defend the slot, and he hasn't had much help. It's a new world maaaan. Only the goalies at the beginning of the slapshot era had it tougher - but they only had to worry about a guy here and there. Would be nice if he bundled 3-4 excellent seasons together and won a Cup so he can be rightly remembered.

6th (tied) all-time unadjusted SP. 4th since 2007-08 in HDSP and GAA (20k mins or more).

By the way, he made the save here - I screen-shotted it because I couldn't believe it. In the old days goalies would dive head first across, not anymore.​

 

[Dreakmur]

Kucherov is considered an outlier (he's more than 10% ahead of 2nd place McDavid), and there's no other notable gaps in the scoring race, so 3rd place Kane becomes the benchmark.

I thought that the outlier had to be after 2nd place. I mean, the reason it started going to #2 was specifically because 1 was most often the outlier.

 

[ImporterExporter]

BTW,

MM is technically auto skipped. I sent a PM to MadA.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Carey Price

6-3, 226 lbs.

Vezina: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10
Hart: 1, 7
AST: 1, 3, 4, 4, 5

Won the Hart, Vezina and Lester B. Pearson (Ted Lindsay) Trophy in 2014-15.

I know he'll get rated on his ups and downs, injuries and playoff record, but he's the most talented goalie I've ever seen with the naked eye - Hasek and Roy included. Roy's post-season heroics are unparalleled though. What Price has to deal with is on another level - every single player can skate and shoot and has decent handles and now you can't even defend the slot, and he hasn't had much help. It's a new world maaaan. Only the goalies at the beginning of the slapshot era had it tougher - but they only had to worry about a guy here and there. Would be nice if he bundled 3-4 excellent seasons together and won a Cup so he can be rightly remembered.

6th (tied) all-time unadjusted SP. 4th since 2007-08 in HDSP and GAA (20k mins or more).

View attachment 336375

By the way, he made the save here - I screen-shotted it because I couldn't believe it. In the old days goalies would dive head first across, not anymore.​

Good pick; I'd take him over a few goalies already drafted.