Prospect Info: At 24th Overall the Jets Select Kristian Vesalainen

[mcpw]

perhaps a stupid question, but why does it typically take power forwards so much longer to develop and how is development path different?

Just my opinion: "power forwards take longer" is a lazy narrative, just like
- defensemen take longer to develop
- "big defensemen" take extra longer to develop
- small players need more development time because they're "physically not ready"
- lightweight players need more time to "grow into their frame" first
- Europeans need extra time to adjust to rink size
(basically everybody who is not a 6'1 195lb non-hitting Canadian winger who has never been injured takes "longer to develop")

I don't think anybody has ever really analyzed how well those narratives actually hold for the average prospect (at least in public, who knows what NHL teams are up to). There are always counterexamples -- Landeskog, Tkachuk, Seth Jones, Hedman, Marner, Skinner, and Pastrnak didn't need a lot of extra development time. Every player has his own timeline. Not to mention that it's often more about opportunity than actually being NHL ready.

So, what would be a normal timeline for Vesalainen:
Hockeydb page of the 2014 draft. Of the picks 11-30:
- 3 guys have established themselves as pretty good NHL players (Larkin, Fabbri, Pastrnak)
- 1 guy has played a lot but isn't really close to impact player status -- opportunity vs readiness? (McCann)
- 4 guys have received extended looks and will want to build on that (Fiala, Perlini, DeAngelo, Schmaltz)
- 12 guys have played 25 games or less. Among them, a clear bust in Bleackley, but also some guys who a lot of people still have very high hopes on (Honka, Sanheim, Kapanen, Ho-Sang) -- again, opportunity vs readiness.

2014 wasn't a great draft, neither was 2017. I'm going to assume that the 2020 version of the 2017 draft hockeydb page will look similar regarding picks 12-31.

 

[Hagged]

Mikko Koivu type of career curve is what I expect for Vesalainen. 7 points or 0.14PPG this season and he's right on that track.

 

[lomiller1]

perhaps a stupid question, but why does it typically take power forwards so much longer to develop and how is development path different?

TBH that’s probably just an excuse used when someone was drafted because they were big and physical but aren’t that good at hockey. Once in a while you find a late bloomer who gets good at hockey later on, and these make up 100% of the big physical low scoring players who actually make the NHL. IOW Big physical low scoring players who sucked they were drafted but make the NHL developed later by definition.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

TBH thatÂ’s probably just an excuse used when someone was drafted because they were big and physical but arenÂ’t that good at hockey. Once in a while you find a late bloomer who gets good at hockey later on, and these make up 100% of the big physical low scoring players who actually make the NHL. IOW Big physical low scoring players who sucked they were drafted but make the NHL developed later by definition.

I don't think that fits when talking about Vesalainen. He has always had elite production vs the best of his own age group, but struggled vs men. That's why I think the idea fits well to his situation

 

[Maukkis]

I don't think that fits when talking about Vesalainen. He has always had elite production vs the best of his own age group, but struggled vs men. That's why I think the idea fits well to his situation

This was the one concern I had about drafting Vesalainen. He prospered in the U18 tournament, but outside of that, he really didn't get much going against top competition or men. This season should be all about getting to the point at which he can produce against men and not be overwhelmed by the level of play in Liiga.

Some prospects need to be cooked slowly in order to get the most out of them. We know how Vesalainen has been able to dominate offensively in the past. Currently, he is not close to being able to do that against men. What do we have to lose by having all the patience in the world with him, giving him time to get accustomed to the elevated level of play and hoping that he figures out how to translate that domination to better leagues? Or, a better question would be "what do we have to win by rushing the guy, when we know that he is not effective enough to help the Jets?"

 

[thrillhous]

I don't think that fits when talking about Vesalainen. He has always had elite production vs the best of his own age group, but struggled vs men. That's why I think the idea fits well to his situation

This was the one concern I had about drafting Vesalainen. He prospered in the U18 tournament, but outside of that, he really didn't get much going against top competition or men. This season should be all about getting to the point at which he can produce against men and not be overwhelmed by the level of play in Liiga.

Some prospects need to be cooked slowly in order to get the most out of them. We know how Vesalainen has been able to dominate offensively in the past. Currently, he is not close to being able to do that against men. What do we have to lose by having all the patience in the world with him, giving him time to get accustomed to the elevated level of play and hoping that he figures out how to translate that domination to better leagues? Or, a better question would be "what do we have to win by rushing the guy, when we know that he is not effective enough to help the Jets?"

Getting 6 points in 26 games in the SHL as a 17 year old is actually really good. His Liiga numbers weren't good (only a 9 game sample size) but his numbers in Frolunda were very good for his age.

 

[kelsier]

As weird as it sounds, the big skilled power forwards tend to take more time to adjust into grown up game. There are so many examples out there but you can look at Blake Wheeler for instance. Was drafted at 2004 and the first time he was able to break 60 points was season 2011-12. That's 7 years away from called an asset. Of course there are always exceptions to the rule like Patrik Laine, but you have to be a near extra-ordinary talent. Even Puljujärvi who was very highly touted seems to be struggling and was far from being dominating player in FEL despite of being physical bloomer and having a great set of skills. Can someone name one ~6"4 winger (other than the obvious) from the recent years who's been able to make a transition to the big league at early age and succeed? Rantanen is the only one that comes into mind and even he has a lot left to prove.

Vesalainen has the tools to become one of the better wingers in the NHL, but looks like a project. Hopefully that the Jets are going to be patient instead of shipping him away before getting to show off what he can do. He was drafted with a boom & bust label and that's what we are seeing today. Luckily the team looks like having a logjam on the wings so there's certainly no hurry. Ideally he would be the one to replace Wheeler once he's declined and starts losing that footwork but then again the odds for reaching that level are not that great. One can hope however.

 

[StPatrik]

As weird as it sounds, the big skilled power forwards tend to take more time to adjust into grown up game. There are so many examples out there but you can look at Blake Wheeler for instance. Was drafted at 2004 and the first time he was able to break 60 points was season 2011-12. That's 7 years away from called an asset. Of course there are always exceptions to the rule like Patrik Laine, but you have to be a near extra-ordinary talent. Even Puljujärvi who was very highly touted seems to be struggling and was far from being dominating player in FEL despite of being physical bloomer and having a great set of skills. Can someone name one ~6"4 winger (other than the obvious) from the recent years who's been able to make a transition to the big league at early age and succeed? Rantanen is the only one that comes into mind and even he has a lot left to prove.

Vesalainen has the tools to become one of the better wingers in the NHL, but looks like a project. Hopefully that the Jets are going to be patient instead of shipping him away before getting to show off what he can do. He was drafted with a boom & bust label and that's what we are seeing today. Luckily the team looks like having a logjam on the wings so there's certainly no hurry. Ideally he would be the one to replace Wheeler once he's declined and starts losing that footwork but then again the odds for reaching that level are not that great. One can hope however.

This.

Laine will continue to progress on this kind of a curve too, which could be hard to believe given last year.

Vesalainen is more of a usual prospect here.

 

[BB88]

Just my opinion: "power forwards take longer" is a lazy narrative, just like
- defensemen take longer to develop
- "big defensemen" take extra longer to develop
- small players need more development time because they're "physically not ready"
- lightweight players need more time to "grow into their frame" first
- Europeans need extra time to adjust to rink size
(basically everybody who is not a 6'1 195lb non-hitting Canadian winger who has never been injured takes "longer to develop")

I don't think anybody has ever really analyzed how well those narratives actually hold for the average prospect (at least in public, who knows what NHL teams are up to). There are always counterexamples -- Landeskog, Tkachuk, Seth Jones, Hedman, Marner, Skinner, and Pastrnak didn't need a lot of extra development time. Every player has his own timeline. Not to mention that it's often more about opportunity than actually being NHL ready.

So, what would be a normal timeline for Vesalainen:
Hockeydb page of the 2014 draft. Of the picks 11-30:
- 3 guys have established themselves as pretty good NHL players (Larkin, Fabbri, Pastrnak)
- 1 guy has played a lot but isn't really close to impact player status -- opportunity vs readiness? (McCann)
- 4 guys have received extended looks and will want to build on that (Fiala, Perlini, DeAngelo, Schmaltz)
- 12 guys have played 25 games or less. Among them, a clear bust in Bleackley, but also some guys who a lot of people still have very high hopes on (Honka, Sanheim, Kapanen, Ho-Sang) -- again, opportunity vs readiness.

2014 wasn't a great draft, neither was 2017. I'm going to assume that the 2020 version of the 2017 draft hockeydb page will look similar regarding picks 12-31.

I definitely think that's true especially when it comes to jumping to NHL. Just like jumping from European rink to NHL rink.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Game starts in 1h and he'll be playing 2nd line again. However, he actually only got 12 minutes in yesterday's game despite being listed as 2nd liner

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Kristian got an assist! not a bust confirmed

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Kristian got an assist! not a bust confirmed

Any highlight?

 

[Board Bard]

Kristian got an assist! not a bust confirmed

Boy, that's really excitzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[JetsFan815]

Did I just seee Antti Miettnen behind the HPK bench?

 

[JetsFan815]

Vesalainen did not play in 3 on 3 although I did see him out on the PK.

HPK club- Heart Puke Kid

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Vesalainen did not play in 3 on 3 although I did see him out on the PK.

HPK club- Heart Puke Kid

I don't get why he didnt get a 3v3 shift. Skilled individuals like him can shine when they get the space and time you have in 3v3 hockey

 

[Trilliann]

Did I just seee Antti Miettnen behind the HPK bench?

Yea he's their assistant coach

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

His speed should warrant some TOI on 3v3. His assist came on the rush, where he passed it to a trailing player on the middle who shot it and then someone put the rebound in.

I only watched a bit from the end of the first period and then about half of the second. His line didn't really seem to get sustained pressure in the offensive zone. Vesalainen again had some passes where the idea was fine, but his execution failed in some way. He needs to be calm and just make simple plays in those situations.

 

[ijuka]

I believe it was a secondary assist - The initial pass to the slot. Here's the clip:

https://streamable.com/61n0u

 

[SM]

I believe it was a secondary assist - The initial pass to the slot. Here's the clip:

https://streamable.com/61n0u

Thanks for the clip!

 

[JetsFan815]

Yea he's their assistant coach

Thanks. Small world.

 

[kelsier]

What da fak... Vesalainen not playing today? Just checked the rosters from "Teksti-TV" and he wasn't there. They are playing against Ässät. Would've been thrilling to get to watch both, him and Kotkaniemi at the same time. The rosters not up to date or is he benched or injured?

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

What da fak... Vesalainen not playing today? Just checked the rosters from "Teksti-TV" and he wasn't there. They are playing against Ässät. Would've been thrilling to get to watch both, him and Kotkaniemi at the same time. The rosters not up to date or is he benched or injured?

Minor injury, he will miss some time

 

[ARGD]

What da fak... Vesalainen not playing today? Just checked the rosters from "Teksti-TV" and he wasn't there. They are playing against Ässät. Would've been thrilling to get to watch both, him and Kotkaniemi at the same time. The rosters not up to date or is he benched or injured?

Minor injury according to their coach.

 

[Maukkis]

According to the head coach, he's currently on a day to day status, but even in the worst case scenario, we are talking about weeks, not months.