Up until this point there's been 2 versions of Panarin. Regular season AP and Playoff Panarin. So when you're talking about replacing his production it's a bit of a false dilemma. The regular season version puts up a billion points, the playoff version there's been a big drop-off. And you can't just write it off as simple as oh it's the playoffs its harder to score, oh well... theres plenty of superstars that have no issue maintaining the same level of production in the post-season. So when you hear, well what would we do without him... ultimately you're probably not going to replicate the regular season production, that would have to be by committee. But more importantly come playoff time, up to this point he has produced like any other good player. He hasn't separated himself from the rest of the pack like he does in the regular season. And thats the issue, that's what we need from him.
I'm going to leave out that bubble qualifier thing because as far as I'm concerned those were kinda baloney (although they had the same production). In the playoffs within the last 3 years Kreider has had 43 games played and 37 points. In that same time span Panarin has 43 games played and 33 points. Kreider has outproduced him and makes 6.5$ million per, Panarin makes 11.6$ million per.
I dont think its too relevant because he isnt going anywhere... but in terms of "replacing" him unfortunately when the most important time of the year comes around he produces like just about any other good player that's making 7 million, 8 million, 9 million, etc... that's a problem. That'll be something that hopefully he can redeem himself within the next 2 years of his contract. Ultimately it's not about trying to replace a 120 point player, it comes down to trying to replace around a point per game player in the playoffs. And frankly there are a number of those guys and for much, much cheaper.
That being said in terms of the future, I wouldn't have any issue trying to retain Panarin when his deal is up. As long as he's still playing at a high level. This post wasn't meant as a shot against him, just calling a spade a spade here. He's undoubtedly a top 5 winger in the regular season, we just need to see that translate to the playoffs. That hasn't happened yet. His deal is up after next year. He'll be 35 when his next deal comes. Lots of question marks, we have young guys on the roster, we have good prospects. Theres plenty of star players that kill it at 35+. His play style, barring any serious injuries it wouldn't be hard to envision him still being a stud. But the money would have to make sense, he'd have to sign for cheaper. Otherwise we'll probably be better off spreading the money and minutes around.