Around the NHL: Part XV - End the Damn Season Already

[Ola]

Completely agree. Miller deal cements the fact that JG did not do well in the McD deal. He either good good value for McD and poor for Miller or vice versa.

Yeah, and I am not saying that it’s a big deal although it’s annoying because I think they should have made a better read on Namestnikov just like with Etem. These guys plays with their heads under their arm and a good hockey eye spots that.

But overall I think Gorton has done a heck of a lot more good than bad. But I do think it’s a bit annoying that just because he does well at the bottom line, many will go crazy if you point out aspects that were less than stellar.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Haha, this isn’t PR Edge, claiming that Names has lived up to expectations is childish and won’t fly.

What’s next, Etem and Smith were great acquisitions too? Just stop it.

What were the expectations? You're the only one who seems to think he should be better than a 30-40 point player

 

[Gresch04]

Completely agree. Miller deal cements the fact that JG did not do well in the McD deal. He either good good value for McD and poor for Miller or vice versa.

The other possibility is the Canucks made an awful deal and overpaid for a mediocre player.

 

[Edge]

Haha, this isn’t PR Edge, claiming that Names has lived up to expectations is childish and won’t fly.

What’s next, Etem and Smith were great acquisitions too? Just stop it.

What are you even talking about?

You’re literally arguing with yourself.

 

[Edge]

Completely agree. Miller deal cements the fact that JG did not do well in the McD deal. He either good good value for McD and poor for Miller or vice versa.

I’m still waiting for someone to actually explain the thought process to me. Can you please help me with that?

 

[Ola]

What are you even talking about?

You’re literally arguing with yourself.

How do you mean?

 

[bbny]

I’m still waiting for someone to actually explain the thought process to me. Can you please help me with that?

The thought process appears to be:

1) Extract a fictitious value for Miller by breaking up the McDonagh deal into arbitrary pieces
2) Compare fictitious value to what Miller was just dealt for
3) Conclude that Gorton gave away Miller based on said fictitious value

If it sounds ridiculous, that's because it is.

 

[GordonGecko]

Gorton's trade of Miller was not his finest work but let's be honest here the Canucks got rap.ed. That's a couple of standard deviations above a 'good' trade for Tampa

 

[Edge]

How do you mean?

I have not argued whether Names has overachieved, underachieved, or any level of achievement in between.

The premise I was responding to saw the Tampa trade broken into two separate deals.

The first had McD traded for Hajek and Howden.

The second, by proxy, would’ve left a first, a second and Names as the return for Miller.

Therefore, I am confused as to why a first and a second from Vancouver is seen as a better deal than a first, a second and Names from Tampa.

And a good five hours later, no one can answer that question for me.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Honestly can’t believe there are still people who want to argue about the value of the McD/Miller trade.

Especially when we’re still in the very early stages of the trade’s development. If Howden becomes a 45 point center, Hajek a 2nd pair D, and Lundkvist/Henriksson are NHL contributors or better, this trade canmt be anything but a MASSIVE win. And that’s if everything goes right. Even if only two of those players are quality NHLers, it’s still a long term win for this team.

But, overall, we’ve yielded 4 B to B+ young players in that trade, and a decent third liner. I think that’s a lot of value, more than you see most teams getting in trades.

 

[bl02]

I have not argued whether Names has overachieved, underachieved, or any level of achievement in between.

The premise I was responding to saw the Tampa trade broken into two separate deals.

The first had McD traded for Hajek and Howden.

The second, by proxy, would’ve left a first, a second and Names as the return for Miller.

Therefore, I am confused as to why a first and a second from Vancouver is seen as a better deal than a first, a second and Names from Tampa.

And a good five hours later, no one can answer that question for me.

For the mere fact I would say that pick in either 2019 (they make barely make playoffs and exit before round 3) is a top 16-18ish pick in a very good draft or they really get to roll the dice and Vancouver misses playoffs in 2020 and things get very interesting. Bottom line that pick could be anywhere from top 10 pick to around 20th overall (2020) or 16-18ish (2019). If I had to put money on it I don't see Vancouver being a division winner or conference finalist in the next two years. Therefore, its probably a nice gamble for the Lightning...could be a Hamonic type move that worked out pretty well for the NYI.
Our first rounder from TB was 28 I believe albeit we walked away with a good RHD prospect.
Also many Ranger fans felt that it was the 2018 first, Howden and Hajek for McDonagh while Names and conditional first (which wasn't met) for Miller.

 

[NernieBichols]

Part of me wonders if Miller fan stay at that 50-60 point level without being placed into prime opportunities.

The challenge is that eventually it feels like he’s benefiting more from those opportunities than his linemates. So inevitably he gets slid down the lineup and his production and value to a winning effort slide down as well.

Speaking of kaliyev.
I liked J.T. but something must of been off there too. He has all the tools, and somehow puts up 40-50 pts, but seemed personality based.

He looked to be playing selfish when I saw him in the Tampa series. Hadn’t really seen any of him all year long beforehand.

He was most successful on a matchup advantage 3rd line with Hayes and grabber.

Wont lie. Glad it’s not the rangers problem anymore

But I don’t think it’s a bad trade for Vancouver

Carolina will pay 3.8 million in real cash (Marleau buyout) for a protected 1st
Vancouver paid a 1st/3rd? For 4 seasons of JT Miller playing for them

I’m sure Vancouver overpaid a little bit, it feels that way right? And they had their fans sitting at the draft and had been saying since the season ended they want to make moves to improve.

But it’s not a terrible trade by Vancouver. Markets need to know what they have and are willing to do to secure players if they want to improve

 

[bl02]

Honestly can’t believe there are still people who want to argue about the value of the McD/Miller trade.

Especially when we’re still in the very early stages of the trade’s development. If Howden becomes a 45 point center, Hajek a 2nd pair D, and Lundkvist/Henriksson are NHL contributors or better, this trade canmt be anything but a MASSIVE win. And that’s if everything goes right. Even if only two of those players are quality NHLers, it’s still a long term win for this team.

But, overall, we’ve yielded 4 B to B+ young players in that trade, and a decent third liner. I think that’s a lot of value, more than you see most teams getting in trades.

Not gonna lie at first was a little underwhelmed because I was one of those that felt the trade was McDonagh for Hajek/Howden/First and conditional first then Miller for Names. The former was very fair because I liked the fact we got 2 prospects and a sure first. I was never a big Names fan and felt we could have gotten more for Miller but overall it was a fair trade then and like you said its looking better and better as we stand here today.

 

[bl02]

Speaking of kaliyev.
I liked J.T. but something must of been off there too. He has all the tools, and somehow puts up 40-50 pts, but seemed personality based.

He looked to be playing selfish when I saw him in the Tampa series. Hadn’t really seen any of him all year long beforehand.

He was most successful on a matchup advantage 3rd line with Hayes and grabber.

Wont lie. Glad it’s not the rangers problem anymore

But I don’t think it’s a bad trade for Vancouver

Carolina will pay 3.8 million in real cash (Marleau buyout) for a protected 1st
Vancouver paid a 1st/3rd? For 4 seasons of JT Miller playing for them

I’m sure Vancouver overpaid a little bit, it feels that way right? And they had their fans sitting at the draft and had been saying since the season ended they want to make moves to improve.

But it’s not a terrible trade by Vancouver. Markets need to know what they have and are willing to do to secure players if they want to improve

We will know for sure if its a Great move for TB in two years time. If Vancouver misses the playoffs in 202o-2021 its a huge win for TB. Plus it seems now that with Callahan on LITR and Miller gone the Lightning can get Point signed.The Miller contract isn't terrible for the Canucks since I believe it only has three more years left on it and Miller is still pretty young.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

For the mere fact I would say that pick in either 2019 (they make barely make playoffs and exit before round 3) is a top 16-18ish pick in a very good draft or they really get to roll the dice and Vancouver misses playoffs in 2020 and things get very interesting. Bottom line that pick could be anywhere from top 10 pick to around 20th overall (2020) or 16-18ish (2019). If I had to put money on it I don't see Vancouver being a division winner or conference finalist in the next two years. Therefore, its probably a nice gamble for the Lightning...could be a Hamonic type move that worked out pretty well for the NYI.
Our first rounder from TB was 28 I believe albeit we walked away with a good RHD prospect.
Also many Ranger fans felt that it was the 2018 first, Howden and Hajek for McDonagh while Names and conditional first (which wasn't met) for Miller.

That's the thing though, it can't be broken up because it was all one trade, and it was all one trade because there wouldn't have been any balance to it if it was split up. I've posted it before, but in the piece Brooks wrote about Miller coming back to play at MSG he broke down the trade talks essentially like this: The Lightning wouldn't give up the 2 picks, Howden and Hajek for McDonagh like the Rangers wanted, then they asked to add Miller to the trade, and the Rangers then felt like they were giving up too much, so Namestnikov was added to fill in the value gap.

 

[aufheben]

We’re using Jim Benning trades as a gauge for fair value?

 

[Richard Banger]

Seeing Miller traded again leads me to believe his issues haven't gone away and TB got very fortunate that Benning is a horrible GM that was Youtubing highlights of Miller while on the phone trading for him.

 

[Carnival Barker]

Miller will be placed in a really good spot to start in Vancouver, like he did in Tampa.

The question will be how long until he loses it, like he also did in Tampa.

 

[rangerfan_79]

Such an awesome off season so far and we haven't even gotten to prospect camp or UFA and we are rehashing a trade from 2 years ago?

Thank goodness we didn't keep miller and hand him a big contract with a nmc.

 

[eco's bones]

Tampa played Namestnikov with Stamkos and Kucherov and his numbers went up. Rangers were fooled into thinking 'well maybe this guy is a second liner'. Maybe even Vlad starting believing that too. With the Rangers he's just reverted back to his old self. He's a third line guy plain and simple and it took some time for the Rangers to figure it out. I don't think he's a dumb player--he's just not that talented and he's not as talented as JT--though JT can play dumb at time or at least moreso than Namestnikov.

I didn't like the $4 mil per we gave him last year--I hated that same contract to Spooner more though. So if we move Namestnikov for a decent enough return I'm not going to complain. I wouldn't give him away though. He is somewhat useful and on a very good team in the right role he can be more than somewhat useful.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Tampa played Namestnikov with Stamkos and Kucherov and his numbers went up. Rangers were fooled into thinking 'well maybe this guy is a second liner'. Maybe even Vlad starting believing that too. With the Rangers he's just reverted back to his old self. He's a third line guy plain and simple and it took some time for the Rangers to figure it out. I don't think he's a dumb player--he's just not that talented and he's not as talented as JT--though JT can play dumb at time or at least moreso than Namestnikov.

I didn't like the $4 mil per we gave him last year--I hated that same contract to Spooner more though. So if we move Namestnikov for a decent enough return I'm not going to complain. I wouldn't give him away though. He is somewhat useful and on a very good team in the right role he can be more than somewhat useful.

Were they though?

 

[Leetch3]

can people please stop talking about how names put up these great numbers with stamkos and kucherov...his career high is 44 points. he has never put up big numbers playing with anyone

 

[Edge]

For the mere fact I would say that pick in either 2019 (they make barely make playoffs and exit before round 3) is a top 16-18ish pick in a very good draft or they really get to roll the dice and Vancouver misses playoffs in 2020 and things get very interesting. Bottom line that pick could be anywhere from top 10 pick to around 20th overall (2020) or 16-18ish (2019). If I had to put money on it I don't see Vancouver being a division winner or conference finalist in the next two years. Therefore, its probably a nice gamble for the Lightning...could be a Hamonic type move that worked out pretty well for the NYI.
Our first rounder from TB was 28 I believe albeit we walked away with a good RHD prospect.
Also many Ranger fans felt that it was the 2018 first, Howden and Hajek for McDonagh while Names and conditional first (which wasn't met) for Miller.

I assume the pick is going end up being somewhere between 18-22.

So the difference between where we think Vancouver’s vs. where Tampa’s pick ended up being is what this whole conversation comes down to?

And that’s after ignoring that you really can’t break the Tampa trade down into two separate deals, or that the Rangers’ second rounder had a chance to be a first, or the other factors.

At the end of the day, even going with the premise of splitting the Tampa trade in two, I just don’t see a heck of a lot of difference between a Vancouver pick that is lottery protected in year one, and likely to be in the 18-22 range, along with a second rounder, compared to a Tampa pick that ended up being 28, a second rounder that had a provision to be a first, and Names.

Yeah there’s the possibility Vancouver pick could be higher, just like there was the possibility the Tampa second could be a first.

 

[Edge]

can people please stop talking about how names put up these great numbers with stamkos and kucherov...his career high is 44 points. he has never put up big numbers playing with anyone

I think the vast majority of people think the McD trade was fair value. I think for a smaller percentage of people, it will never have been enough and anything ever associated with that deal, now or in the future, will be met with a heightened response.

And it’s not exactly like the end result for Tampa was much different than the story we saw. McD, under the strain of playing top pairing minutes, was once again hurt and worn out by the time the playoffs rolled around, and Miller found himself on the fourth line and in the dog house by the end of the season, before being traded.

Forgive me I sounds dismissive of the reactions to the whole thing, but I’ve seen this episode before.

 

[bl02]

I assume the pick is going end up being somewhere between 18-22.

So the difference between where we think Vancouver’s vs. where Tampa’s pick ended up being is what this whole conversation comes down to?

And that’s after ignoring that you really can’t break the Tampa trade down into two separate deals, or that the Rangers’ second rounder had a chance to be a first, or the other factors.

At the end of the day, even going with the premise of splitting the Tampa trade in two, I just don’t see a heck of a lot of difference between a Vancouver pick that is lottery protected in year one, and likely to be in the 18-22 range, along with a second rounder, compared to a Tampa pick that ended up being 28, a second rounder that had a provision to be a first, and Names.

Yeah there’s the possibility Vancouver pick could be higher, just like there was the possibility the Tampa second could be a first.

Better probability that the Vancouver pick will be higher (no playoffs in 2021) than The lighting winning the cup. I think it’s obvious the lightning did this move to remove another 5 million plus from their books but at the same time they could have a realistic chance at getting a top 15 pick in two years. To me that’s a win win for them. This deal has the feel of Benning needing to make the playoffs in the next two years or he’s gone. So for him it’s a worthwhile gamble.