Around The NHL: Part VIII - Tampa/NYR = 0 Playoff Wins

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

It's not like the Blue Jackets are talentless, though. Anderson, Atkinson, Bobrovsky, Duchene, Jenner, Jones, Panarin, etc. All these are good players.

I would say both 8 seeds aren’t typical. Columbus has plenty of great talent and Colorado has two franchise level talents in MacKinnon and Rantanen, while also adding a special young D in the middle of their run.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

I mean yea they were the underdog. It’s an indisputable fact. What you said is also a fact about them having more points and being home. And if you thought they weren’t then you should have attempted to place a bet on it if you thought the odds were so wildly wrong.

I don't think you understand the meaning of indisputable fact.

Edit: Just to add, the results of the first round bore out the argument that the Islanders were, in fact, the favorite...despite whatever odds Vegas bookies set on them.

It wasn't a close series. The Islanders were undoubtedly the better team, as they were for the majority of the season. It's painful to admit, but the Islanders are a pretty good team this year.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Playoff hockey is different than regular season hockey. It always has been and hopefully, it always will be.

Skill without will wins in the regular season. Skill without will gets shit on in the playoffs. And I want it no other way.

Look at how Tampa just folded; do we really want them to cruise to the cup, just because they could win 62 games when teams had limited time to prepare for them?

Look how teams like Columbus and players like Mackinnon have risen to the moment; do we really think that they shouldn't be rewarded for being hungrier than the opposition?

The playoffs are all that remain of the old spirit of hockey. We can laugh at "toughness", and "character", and "leadership" all that we want, but in the playoffs they actually matter.

And I would guess that there's a strong correlation between people who dislike the 'unpredictability' and to what degree they are stats proponents.

But just because we can't put 'will' into a number, doesn't mean that we should wish it away; it's what makes The Stanley Cup the most difficult pro championship to win. (seriously, Google it; the majority of lists have The Cup at number one)

f*** the ratings. Our sport is better.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

This is generally not true and the biggest myth around. It is especially not true on something like hockey playoff series odds which bring in very low volume and have low limits. Do you think they really care if 100% of bets come in one side? The amount they would lose is negligible. The fact that a book took that 85k bet on tiger 14-1 shows you right there they do not care about mitigating risk they just want the highest expected value. They book hundreds of thousands of bets a year the result of one is near meaningless to their bottom line. It is far more important to them to make the odds the “true odds” such as not to get exploited by the pros.

This is absolutely incorrect. I implore you to go read up on how odds are actually set.

To put it simply, the goal of a casino is to take the least risk possible in order to ensure a profit.

Here is a rather decent explanation I found that should help to clarify:

The easiest way to understand odds pricing is to think of an event with just two possible outcomes. We want to bet on which team will kick off a football match, this is based on the flip of a coin and so has an exactly 50/50 chance of happening. The naïve among us may think therefore that the odds should be evens for each outcome, but in reality they never will be, this is where the bookmaker builds in their profit margin.

Probability however is only one aspect of odds pricing. Bookies don't actually set their odds based completely on the real probabilities but rather on how likely they think their punters will wager on each outcome, allowing them to balance their book. See our section on how odds move in response to betting for more about this.

It is quite clear that many felt Pitt would be a lower seed likely to 'upset' a higher seed (I myself picked them as going through to the second round in my bracket). Based on their top tier and widely known talent, along with their track record of multiple cups, it's not hard to guess that wagers would very likely favor Pitt over the Islanders, thus tipping the scales of the casino's line in their favor.

To put it simply, this series on its merits (meaning the actual on ice play represented during the regular season) appeared to be essentially a coin toss. Based on the obvious likelihood that more people would bet on the known commodity, Pittsburgh, it's clear the Vegas bookies would make them the favorite.

It's quite simple to understand and also quite obvious.

 

[Harbour Dog]

This needs to happen so it’s one more thing off the check list. I don’t want to have to think about it beyond tonight. We’d know the pick will be no lower than 22.

Then it’s all eyes on Dallas.

And not only this, but if Vegas wins their series that pick gets one better; and if Dallas wins their's, one better again.

This first round has gone unbelievably in our favour to this point.

 

[Edge]

And not only this, but if Vegas wins their series that pick gets one better; and if Dallas wins their's, one better again.

This first round has gone unbelievably in our favour to this point.

Exactly, and I’d love to be able to focus on Vegas and Dallas. Let’s face it, I don’t think anyone on here would have a bad thing to say about waking up next Saturday knowing, at a minimum, we’re owners of picks at 2, 20 and 37 and 58.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Exactly, and I’d love to be able to focus on Vegas and Dallas. Let’s face it, I don’t think anyone on here would have a bad thing to say about waking up next Saturday knowing, at a minimum, we’re owners of picks at 2, 20 and 37 and 58.

And that's without the Dallas pick!

 

[Winston2018]

Anyone seen Johnny Hockey? Anyone?

not after he choked on penalty shot

he looked very nervous

 

[SA16]

I don't think you understand the meaning of indisputable fact.

Edit: Just to add, the results of the first round bore out the argument that the Islanders were, in fact, the favorite...despite whatever odds Vegas bookies set on them.

It wasn't a close series. The Islanders were undoubtedly the better team, as they were for the majority of the season. It's painful to admit, but the Islanders are a pretty good team this year.

Oh. So in order to determine who is the favorite before a series starts we need to wait until the series ends and see the results? The Islanders were not the favorite in the series. They were the higher seed. That is not the same thing. If the Islanders should have been the favorite than all the big money would have come in on the Islanders which then would have moved the line towards the Islanders (not that there is much "big money" in this as I said NHL bets are low volume in general and things like this are low limits).

This is absolutely incorrect. I implore you to go read up on how odds are actually set.

To put it simply, the goal of a casino is to take the least risk possible in order to ensure a profit.

I'm essentially a professional sports bettor lol I know how it works. And they do not set the odds to get a 50/50 split on each side. The goal of a casino is to maximize profit long term not to avoid risk on any single bet. If they can't withstand losing a bet then they do not have enough capital to run a sportsbook. The only real time that a line will be adjusted for the public are things that are not Side A or Side B. For example in Golf they can always give bad odds on Tiger Woods because people like betting him and it doesn't leave them open to exploitation on the other side. The same is true for things like preseason stanley cup/super bowl odds and such (they can make some odds worse...like New England) but they can not do that for something where one team wins and one team loses.

 

[Harbour Dog]

not after he choked on penalty shot

he looked very nervous

He missed on a breakaway after that too. And had a goal called back a little later on.

He was definitely shouldering a burden in that game, but aside from not being able to finish, I never thought he played that bad.

 

[Kovalev27]

The small skill guys all played small and it showed. The heavier teams are feasting here.

So while falling in love with a jack Hughes or cole caufield is one thing this is going to be a reminder that winning championships isn’t built on stocking up on pixies (and pixie dust)

Columbus And Colorado absolutely ran over two soft perimeter powerplay teams.

 

[duhmetreE]

The small skill guys all played small and it showed. The heavier teams are feasting here.

So while falling in love with a jack Hughes or cole caufield is one thing this is going to be a reminder that winning championships isn’t built on stocking up on pixies (and pixie dust)

Columbus And Colorado absolutely ran over two soft perimeter powerplay teams.

That's a mentality. I'm definitely a believer in that you take on the personality of your coach.

TB definitely has no backbone. They went up 3-0 in the 1st period of game1. Went on cruise control... Then got punched in the mouth in the 3rd. They never recovered.

David Quinn is teaching this team how to win and what it takes to win. Talent is part of the equation but it's not the entire equation. 99.9% of the players in the NHL are talented.

Being a disciplined, strong, hardworking ES team is what sets teams apart in the playoffs IMO.

 

[Dr. Ogrodnick]

So hand count

How many sat here for the last 6 weeks saying Dallas/Colorado/Columbus had no chance and thought Columbus should have sold and Colorado should have tanked?

Hold on though, sure in the moment CBJ is the toast of the league, but what if they lose next round? Then they basically gave up on all the assets they could have gotten for Panerin/bob/etc for 1 playoff round win. Sure important for the franchise given they have never won a series before, but absolutely horrible from a long term perspective.

 

[NYR94]

Exactly, and I’d love to be able to focus on Vegas and Dallas. Let’s face it, I don’t think anyone on here would have a bad thing to say about waking up next Saturday knowing, at a minimum, we’re owners of picks at 2, 20 and 37 and 58.

In a league with 31 teams it's definitely a plus to have a pick every 18 spots or so for 2 rounds. Much better than those years where we didnt get our first pick until much later.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

In a league with 31 teams it's definitely a plus to have a pick every 18 spots or so for 2 rounds. Much better than those years where we didnt get our first pick until much later.

Remember the drafts where our first picks were in the THIRD round? Sean Day was our highest pick in 2016

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

He missed on a breakaway after that too. And had a goal called back a little later on.

He was definitely shouldering a burden in that game, but aside from not being able to finish, I never thought he played that bad.

I thought he was pretty bad prior to game 5.

That being said, 9 games where his team was totally outmatched (1 seed or not) isn’t enough for me to label him a “choker”.

This happens every year come playoffs. People who barely watched regular season hockey (I’m one of those people) making determinations about players based on single digit sample sizes. People did it with Matthews, and he made them look bad in record time.

Now, obviously, there are some players whose games just don’t traslate that well to playoff hockey - Thornton, Nash, JT Miller, etc - but 9 bad games just isn’t enough for me to label a guy one or the other.

If Gaudreau is still putting up 1 point in 5 game series three years from now, sure, go ahead and label him.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Remember the drafts where our first picks were in the THIRD round? Sean Day was our highest pick in 2016

That already seems like a lifetime ago.

 

[account deactivated]

Thought you guys might like this.

 

[Gresch04]

Playoff hockey is different than regular season hockey. It always has been and hopefully, it always will be.

Skill without will wins in the regular season. Skill without will gets **** on in the playoffs. And I want it no other way.

Look at how Tampa just folded; do we really want them to cruise to the cup, just because they could win 62 games when teams had limited time to prepare for them?

Look how teams like Columbus and players like Mackinnon have risen to the moment; do we really think that they shouldn't be rewarded for being hungrier than the opposition?

The playoffs are all that remain of the old spirit of hockey. We can laugh at "toughness", and "character", and "leadership" all that we want, but in the playoffs they actually matter.

And I would guess that there's a strong correlation between people who dislike the 'unpredictability' and to what degree they are stats proponents.

But just because we can't put 'will' into a number, doesn't mean that we should wish it away; it's what makes The Stanley Cup the most difficult pro championship to win. (seriously, Google it; the majority of lists have The Cup at number one)

**** the ratings. Our sport is better.

Very solid post. Only missing one thing in my opinion. Luck. Look at the games so far decided by a fair amount of luck. Fortunate bounces, getting close calls on goalie interference, missed penalties, bad penalties, hitting the post and then scoring a goal the other way, dominating and giving up a goal on one scoring chance, and on and on.

While luck is part of every sport, it has the greatest impact statistically in lower scoring sports and thus the greatest impact in hockey. Sometimes the #1 seed is soft, other times the #1 seed is a MUCH better team that runs into a hot goalie and bad luck. It's as big a reason as grit and character in making hockey the toughest championship to win. So it doesn't always feel special, it sometimes just feels like a fluke.

 

[NYR94]

Remember the drafts where our first picks were in the THIRD round? Sean Day was our highest pick in 2016

Yeah that's rough. The cost of contending I suppose.

 

[bl02]

Thought you guys might like this.

f***ing awesome let’s go Stars. IMO likeable team and likeable coach with a heart and soul guy like Zucc.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

If you throw something on the ice and you're not a Detroit fan and that something isn't an octopus, then you are a corny poser. Get your own traditions.

 

[Bob Richards]

Don't remember if it was posted earlier but John Scott shared some Torts stories on his podcast (which seemingly everyone has now).

Podcast — John Scott

Talks a little about his extremely short and absent tenure with NYR and the dynamic between Torts and Gaborik. He mentioned that guys like Callahan, Girardi, Staal etc. had tuned out Torts by that point.

 

[kovazub94]

This NHL playoffs first round that’s still going on has had more drama than the whole KHL playoffs this year. Across the pond there were maybe 3 series altogether with any level of excitement, ECF - the only one really worth noting.

Can’t believe someone would complain about unpredictability of what we are witnessing here while the highest skills from goalies, defensemen and forwards have been on display by all sides.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Very solid post. Only missing one thing in my opinion. Luck. Look at the games so far decided by a fair amount of luck. Fortunate bounces, getting close calls on goalie interference, missed penalties, bad penalties, hitting the post and then scoring a goal the other way, dominating and giving up a goal on one scoring chance, and on and on.

While luck is part of every sport, it has the greatest impact statistically in lower scoring sports and thus the greatest impact in hockey. Sometimes the #1 seed is soft, other times the #1 seed is a MUCH better team that runs into a hot goalie and bad luck. It's as big a reason as grit and character in making hockey the toughest championship to win. So it doesn't always feel special, it sometimes just feels like a fluke.

Fair. There are plenty of examples where a team slightly outplayed the other in a series, but just never got the right bounce at the right time.

Neither the Tampa series, nor the Calgary series are examples of that though. That was two teams that just couldn't measure up to what their opponents brought to the rink.