That Dustin Brown deal is clearly a benchmark for a Cally deal.
I would think so, but believe Cally (which is justified) will get slightly lower years and annual salary.
Just like Matt Duschenes second contract should be a precursor (also he should get more) to the coming Derek Stepan deal regarding years 4 & 5 in the NHL.
Duschene got the following Bridge deal and then bought his final 2 RFA years and 3 years of UFA:
2012-2013 $3,275,000
2013-2014 $3,750,000
2014-2015 $6,000,000
2015-2016 $6,000,000
2016-2017 $6,000,000
2017-2018 $6,000,000
2018-2019 $6,000,000
Buying 3 UFA years cost them (The Avalanche) at least 10% on the 2 last RFA years - meaning his caphit on a 4 year deal should be $5,500,000 per annum for RFA years 6 + 7. Total caphit for Duschene for a 4 year deal (going to UFA) would then be $18 M for 4 years or 4,5 M per for 4 years.
If one considers production after their first 3 professional years, age when entering the league (Duchene 2 years younger), other intangibles and draft position (which matter regardless of what people here say!) then Matt Duchene should have at least a 10% higher market value than Derek Stepan. More likely closer to 15%
Here are the main stats to look at:
Matt Duchene
Chosen 3rd overall (1st round in 2009)
NHL debut at 18 years of age
NHL stats 1st 3 RFA years
219 GP - 65 goals - 85 assists - 150 points - 0,68 PPG
Derek Stepan
Chosen 51 st overall (2nd round in 2008)
NHL debut at 20 years of age
NHL stats 1st 3 RFA years
212 GP - 56 goals - 56 assists - 112 points - 0,53 PPG
Stepan should then be looking at the following average salary - depending on length - as a final amount to put his ink on Don Glens paper:
2 year bridge deal ~ $3,2M - 3,3M per
3 year bridge deal ~ 4 M per year
4 year deal ~ 4,5 M per year
5 year deal ~ 4,7 M per year
If one realizes how these contracts are constructed then it is much easier to see where this will wind up
