542365
2018-19 Cup Champs!
- Mar 22, 2012
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Seems pretty reasonable, though Minnesota seems a bit high. I don’t see them as a 100 point team personally. I also think Nashville is a bit better than Chicago.
Around The NHL Discussion 2021-22 Part II
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I can find that stuff easily enough. I just don't like a studio show running down the day's NHL action that glosses over most of the stuff that happened in the game. The Blues game should have included a highlight of Schenn fighting Kadri, all the goals, that amazing Binnington save on Rantanen, and the overturned kick replay. That's the story of that game. Instead they started the highlight with a 4 goals already scored. It was the least detailed report of the 14 games.
BlueOil
"well-informed"
- Apr 28, 2010
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honestly not too far off from the blues current situation
decent, but average top 4 guys without a clear cut #1. blues' squad skews more offensive, jets' squad skews more defensive.
Pretty sure he's had the most profitable betting model of any NHL model publicly published. Its not perfect, but I think he deserves credit for that. He's missed on the Blues' more than most teams, though.
BlueMed
Registered User
- Jul 18, 2019
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Profitability doesn't mean jack. Even the Vegas Odds have a very low predictive value...
BlueMed
Registered User
- Jul 18, 2019
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I think the Blues are a step above that. Honestly, the Blues have a pretty solid top 4 with Parayko, Faulk, Krug, and Scandella. If our coaching staff can't find a way to make that much talent work, then that's more on the coaches.
Yet a large profitable industry depends on their accuracy, not as predictors of the game outcome, but as a predictor of what the betting public will do. It does show that accurate predictions are possible. It’s fun to compare the models.
Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
- 17,340
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It’s a point of discussion.
If there is a more accurate model out there, please feel free to share.
rumrokh
THORBS
- Mar 10, 2006
- 10,154
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There's a sports statistician (can't remember his name off the top of my head) whose model soundly beat all of the advanced stat hockey nerds a few years back based on the impact of officiating. He left some standard stuff out in favor of the predictability of penalties and referee biases - basically, reffing the score and home arena advantages. I don't think he publishes a yearly prediction, and it's possible some others have started to incorporate such things into their models, but we have good recent evidence that the advanced stat guys still have a lot to figure out.
Just because it's the most profitable, that doesn't mean it's accurate enough for any given fan's tastes when speaking about the game, especially when speaking about finer grain aspects. And I'm starting to see a little too much hockey discourse being squashed because of religious model adherence. So, even though I think that stuff is interesting, how fans choose to use it is often not great. Sometimes the evidence is overwhelming or at least solid, but it's okay to admit "the best we have" can still be not good enough to base conclusions on.
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
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The profitability is tied directly to correctly predicting the outcomes of games. He's not betting on over/unders or puck lines. His model is more profitable than any other model because it correctly predicts the winners of games more often than the other models. His model also spits out the most accurate player projections for fantasy hockey on the market (and those projections are derived from the exact same model he uses to predict season outcomes.
His model isn't perfect and like all predictions isn't going to be anything close to 100% accurate. That's why sports are fun. Unpredictable things happen. His predictions aren't gospel and reasonable people can disagree with them. But there is no support to the idea that his predictive model is trash. I haven't seen anything that is consistently more accurate.
Evander Kane is out for 21 games for submitting a fake vaccine certificate. On the plus side for him, the league has closed their investigation on his gambling issues. What a twit.
TheDizee
Trade Jordan Kyrou ASAP | ALWAYS RIGHT
- Apr 5, 2014
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schwartz is proving to be what we thought he was for seattle
seattle is gonna regret that contract, possibly as early as this year.
seattle is gonna regret that contract, possibly as early as this year.
elkranio
Registered User
- Jan 4, 2014
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Kaprisov just threw a flying elbow at 6’7” Logan Stanley of the Jets…getting a little chippy in MN.
And now Dillon and Foligno with a big-time scrap. Great divisional rivalry being reborn.
mk80
Registered User
- Jul 30, 2012
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TheDizee
Trade Jordan Kyrou ASAP | ALWAYS RIGHT
- Apr 5, 2014
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Every time I see Fleury on camera, he is upset and cursing after a goal. That Chicago defense is special.
If the Blackhawks are this uncompetitive, ESPN is going to have to rethink their plan to load up the broadcast schedule with Chicago games. Please. Won't they?
If the Blackhawks are this uncompetitive, ESPN is going to have to rethink their plan to load up the broadcast schedule with Chicago games. Please. Won't they?
Itsnotatrap
Registered User
- Oct 6, 2013
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The good news is that Seth Jones is a week and almost a half million into his new contract. Bad news is there is 7 years, 51 weeks and 75+ million left.
Thallis
No half measures
Yeah losing Weber, Price, Kotkaniemi, and Danault was a pretty big part of their roster.
Not even. He is still under old contract. The 8 year 76mm deal starts next year.
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