Around The NHL Discussion 2018-2019 - Part IV

[The Note]

Colorado is a good team, they just got ECHL level goaltending for a third of the season. They still rely a lot on that first line and if a team can shut them down, I don’t see the Avs doing much. But that top line is really f***ing good.

 

[Celtic Note]

Nothing is a guarantee for post-season success...absolutely nothing.

Not having the best player in the game. Not having the best coach. Not having the best regular season record. Not being the best at a particular style of hockey, or having the most size, or speed, or skill, or high-end talent, or depth, or grit, or whatever. Not spending the most money on payroll. Not even having the consensus best team. If anyone says anything is a guarantee of postseason success, they're simply wrong.

Any team can still win a short series against anyone else. Even in relatively lopsided match-ups, the underdog still wins the series around a third of the time. Think about what that means mathematically. A perpetual 70% favorite vs the field (which is a huge favorite in hockey) will only win four series in a row about a quarter of the time. They'll lose in the first round more often than they will win it all (30% vs 24%).

There's no magic recipe for success. A lot of things need to go right to win it all, and there's always some luck involved as well.

All that said, I think it's silly to ignore major evolutions to how the game is being played. The state of the game matters, and certain things are going to benefit teams more than others, generally speaking, as the league continually evolves. Emphasis added because I think it's just as silly to pretend that the game is so simplistic that only one or two things "matter" when it comes to winning. Anything that can possibly benefit you matters...it's a question of degrees (X currently gives one a slightly better edge than Y), not one of exclusion (if X then not Y).

Since it's a sport with a lot of competitive parity, accruing those slight competitive edges matters over the long haul, even if they guarantee you nothing in the short term.

I probably have mentioned it before, but balance is probably the most important thing in life and a hockey team is no different. If you skew too far in any one direction, you become vulnerable.

On a semi-related topic, I see people calling for the Blues to be more physical, but I am pretty confident in saying that engaging in physicality too much against the Jets will cause problems. They can dominate us in that area and to try to keep up just throws us off our game.

However, in another series, playing up a physical game could be a huge part of being able to win. When I think of a team like Nashville that places great emphasis on their D transition out of the zone, I would lay a heavy forecheck with bodies to force them to rush passes. I would also do this against guys like Klingberg on Dallas. He seems to wilt with physicality.

 

[Celtic Note]

Knew Calgary wouldn't do anything. Always laughed at people that had them as the top contender in the West.

I felt they played beyond their baseline for too much of the season and was never too impressed.

 

[Dbrownss]

Goodnight Calgary. No one will notice you leaving.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Welp that's the end of Calgary.

 

[TheDizee]

Little Tkachuk is just a useless as his old man was when the playoffs roll in. Stupid penalty pretty much delivers the dagger for the Flames.

Must run in the family.

 

[BlueDream]

I don’t want to hear another word about how good and underrated Calgary’s defense is. They’re fine. Giordano is a stud but outside of that I just don’t get it.

Don’t forget the main boards saying they had the best 4th line too!

 

[Dbrownss]

Sam Bennett funneling the power of that stash.....


Man he looks dumb AF

 

[hullderko]

This works to our favor, though, especially if we finish business tomorrow.

Aah yes, I did not think about that! Good call.

 

[TheDizee]

I think Vegas and STL are the best teams in the West. What a bizarre postseason.

East is even more of a mess, if the Leafs win that series there is literally no reason they should not make a finals appearance.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

I probably have mentioned it before, but balance is probably the most important thing in life and a hockey team is no different. If you skew too far in any one direction, you become vulnerable.

On a semi-related topic, I see people calling for the Blues to be more physical, but I am pretty confident in saying that engaging in physicality too much against the Jets will cause problems. They can dominate us in that area and to try to keep up just throws us off our game.

However, in another series, playing up a physical game could be a huge part of being able to win. When I think of a team like Nashville that places great emphasis on their D transition out of the zone, I would lay a heavy forecheck with bodies to force them to rush passes. I would also do this against guys like Klingberg on Dallas. He seems to wilt with physicality.

I agree with all this. Feel it’s worth adding that another deterent with Winnipeg is you have to respect their PP. You probably start the series with Nashville, if that’s who advances, with the idea that they will need to demand your respect; not being idiots just to be idiots, but pushing the envelop just a little further just because their PP has been a tire fire all year.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

#1 seeds are dogs this year

 

[Novacain]

This series might have convinced me Gaudreau is the least playoff based player out of the elites in the sport. 99 points in the regular season, 1 assist in 5 games in the post season.

 

[TheDizee]

This series might have convinced me Gaudreau is the least playoff based player out of the elites in the sport. 99 points in the regular season, 1 assist in 5 games in the post season.

stamkos isnt much better

 

[mk80]

That was probably one of the most lopsided games I've watched... no fight tonight from the Flames in an elimination game.

The Avs have one hell of a team though!

 

[Falco Lombardi]

My bracket still has all four conference finalists alive. That feels like an accomplishment right now.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

After the game 1 shutout, Calgary's vaunted D got rolled by Mackinnon/Rantanen to the tune of 17 combined points in 4 games.

Calgary's mental game was absolutely exposed in game 5. Dominated multiple shifts in a row leading to the goal that got called back for interference, then they just collapsed and couldn't muster much of anything the rest of the game.

 

[ezcreepin]

Central is so strong this year (idk how many times I have to think this in my life), so I'm expecting one of those teams to make the finals. I don't see the Aves beating Vegas, but crazier things have happened. I don't really want to play Dallas, as I think Nashville is a much easier series for us, but their ability to come back late in games, plus their defense is what scares me the most about that team. Rinne is good, but beatable, and they're susceptible to a collapse much easier I think than Dallas. For me, Bishop will dictate the rest of that series and beyond, but my feeling is that their depth on offense is more potent that Nashville's. I guess we'll see what happens, but maybe they are both just not nearly as good of teams facing off and that's why they're going the distance in the series.

 

[BlueDream]

I don’t understand the sudden outburst some people are having about parity being bad for the NHL.

Underachieving teams like the Blues and Sharks (and Capitals before last year) have known for years that regular season success means squat.

Now all the sudden Tampa and Calgary lose and people start freaking out that the regular season doesn’t matter and it looks bad for the league. What? Where the f*** have they been?

 

[Celtic Note]

I agree with all this. Feel it’s worth adding that another deterent with Winnipeg is you have to respect their PP. You probably start the series with Nashville, if that’s who advances, with the idea that they will need to demand your respect; not being idiots just to be idiots, but pushing the envelop just a little further just because their PP has been a tire fire all year.

I think it’s always a good idea to stay out of the box. I never understood why players with a lot of penalty minutes are a often viewed as some plus (not saying you said this). When I played (not saying I am some great example), but I played a physical game and rarely got penalties. I think you have to find the line and then stay right below it.

All that said, I agree that Winnipeg is someone you absolutely cannot get penalties against. Nashville is someone I might be willing to inch closer to the line against.

 

[ChillWill1]

My bracket still has all four conference finalists alive. That feels like an accomplishment right now.

It’s three for me.... I had Blues vs Vegas-WCF and Tampa vs Toronto - ECF

 

[Dbrownss]

I don’t understand the sudden outburst some people are having about parity being bad for the NHL.

Underachieving teams like the Blues and Sharks (and Capitals before last year) have known for years that regular season success means squat.

Now all the sudden Tampa and Calgary lose and people start freaking out that the regular season doesn’t matter and it looks bad for the league. What? Where the **** have they been?

Tampa really in shocking. They were so dominant in the regular season.....then were absolutely Negan'd in the playoffs.

 

[Dbrownss]

Avs are alot better then I gave them credit for. I wasnt shocked they won, but they crushed the Flames.

I do believe they will struggle more against who's left, these teams are bigger and more physical.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Avs are alot better then I gave them credit for. I wasnt shocked they won, but they crushed the Flames.

I do believe they will struggle more against who's left, these teams are bigger and more physical.

Avs are still largely a 1 line team with middling D. When faced against club with better defense/structure I see them struggling. I expect Vegas to prevail over them fairly easily (in 5?).

 

[Itsnotatrap]

I think it’s always a good idea to stay out of the box. I never understood why players with a lot of penalty minutes are a often viewed as some plus (not saying you said this). When I played (not saying I am some great example), but I played a physical game and rarely got penalties. I think you have to find the line and then stay right below it.

All that said, I agree that Winnipeg is someone you absolutely cannot get penalties against. Nashville is someone I might be willing to inch closer to the line against.

Yeah, just saying if you dragged into a series where special teams gets a higher priority because Watson wants to do Watson things and Subban wants to show his gamesmanship, then that’s a trade off we can accept with them. Getting more penalties by having more willingness to engage in a physical style vs actively trying to get penalties.